Bill James ranks Twins' young talent #1
by by jiminy on Oct 24, 2008 10:20 AM EDT
33 comments
There have been a lot of stories about Bill James's upcoming analysis of young mlb talent; the longest quote I've seen is here:
http://diamondbacks.scout.com/2/803961.html?refid=400
"James lists the Minnesota Twins as the #1 team in all of baseball for young talent, even though they don’t have a single young player in the top 25: “But they have 6 players in the top 100, 8 in the top 120, and 10 in the top 150. The average team has 5 players in the top 150; the Twins have 10—Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Carlos Gomez, Nick Blackburn, Jason Kubel, Denard Span and Glen Perkins. And then they have Michael Cuddyer, and Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser, and Craig Breslow, and then they have a bunch of other guys. The Twins rank seventh in the majors in young pitching talent, and first in non-pitching talent. The Twins ranked 11th on this list last year, and moved forward basically because of the development of the young pitchers. They’re loaded.”
What's odd to me is that neither Mauer nor Morneau crack his top 25. What do these ratings mean, exactly, when Joey Votto is ranked higher than Justin Morneau, and Brian McCann is ranked higher than Joe Mauer? Obviously he's looking at more than just their 2008 performance, since they're both legitimate mvp candidates. The article above says:
"To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics—“Runs Created” for position players and “Runs Allowed” for pitchers—as the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number of years the player should be at his peak performance."
I guess that means you get extra points for being younger. We'll know more when the book comes out November 1.
But until then, being told by Bill James that you have the best collection of young talent in the major leagues is very nice indeed, and cause for some serious celebration -- the future looks bright!
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Yes, he makes an adjustment in favor of younger players
which explains why neither is in the top 25.
by Eric in Madison on Oct 24, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yep...
plus it doesn’t factor in position/defense.
So I buy it. I’d probably take Votto right now over Morneau, given age. Not sure about McCann/Mauer.
by DJSkillz on Oct 24, 2008 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
youth = $
I guess that makes sense — if the primary value of youth is that it is cheap, and most of M&M’s cheap years are gone, most of the benefit of their youth is gone too.
I’m still amazed that we came out ahead of Tampa Bay in cheap young talent though. That’s impressive, considering what they’ve accomplished. His top 5 was Minnesota, Arizona, Tampa, Florida, and KC.
by by jiminy on Oct 24, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
improvement
I’m not sure that it’s money so much as potential improvement. I could be wrong, but I think that the adjustment is made based on age and not service time. With the age 27 season being supposedly the best season for a player, as they get towards that age and then past it their chances of improvement decrease.
by Hoya on Oct 24, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Twins have younger pitchers
>>I’m still amazed that we came out ahead of Tampa Bay in cheap young talent though
It might amaze some people that the Twins are a younger team than Tampa,
If youth is emphasized in James’ assessment, that might be enough to swing it.
Twins pitchers’ average age last season was 26.2 compared to 27 for Tampa. The position players for each squad averaged 27.5 years. All based on bb-reference’s weighted approach to averaging team age.
Averages, of course, as typically distorted representations. Still, the Twins are young.
by Johnny Safron on Oct 24, 2008 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the future of my 4 baseball teams is really good
twins,rays,marlins and reds.
bill smith took alot of heat this year but i think that his trades are going to work out in the end, with delmon and carlos having really high ceilings, im a rays fan who when delmon was in the minors i couldnt wait for him to get to the majors and i still think he is going to be as good as advertised, gomez is going to be the next jose reyes.
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
by RaysOfHope on Oct 25, 2008 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jose Reyes...
or Carl Crawford as a good CF.
Both of those are pretty damn valuable.
They’re still pretty comparable to me. If you look at the their 3 first full seasons, all at age 22, they are pretty damn close. The big difference for Gomez is his K rate against Crawford/Reyes. He really needs to cut that down.
by DJSkillz on Oct 25, 2008 10:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
im thinking more crawford than reyes right now
crawford doesnt have that much plate discipline but it still a good hitter and is a steal threat, the thing is that gomez is faster than both of them, but he needs to work on how to steal bases better, he started out so good at stealing bases and then everyone just figured him out and he never really stole that many more stolen bases after that
the red sox had a 9 game elimination win streak, but matt garza was too busy rocking out to tupac to notice
by RaysOfHope on Oct 26, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gomez's steals
What exactly happened with that? What did people figure out that made him just stop cold?
by by jiminy on Oct 26, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unsubstantiated Speculation
I’m wondering if getting picked off a couple times gave him cold feet – I think his first CS was a pickoff, and I seem to recall one or two others early in the year as well. I’m wondering if pitchers started to realize that he was over-aggressive and susceptible to pickoffs, and he overcorrected – his SB attempts dropped through the first 2/3 of the season (12 in April, 10 in May, 7 in June, 1 in July) as his success rate dropped (11/12, 6/10, 4/7, 0/1), which makes me think that maybe he started getting worse jumps due to fear of pickoffs, causing his success rate to go down, and the drop in success rate caused him to run less often.
Note that this is entirely speculation, based on what I remember from the first part of the season and going back through splits and a few game logs (just to verify that I was remembering the pickoffs correctly). I don’t know whether Gomez has anything resembling a green light, so I don’t know whether the drop in attempts can necessarily be attributed to him and not Gardenhire. Also, the drop in attempts from May-July corresponds at least somewhat to his hitting slump – it may be that he ran less simply because he was on base less.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Oct 27, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No support for the argument
>>he started out so good at stealing bases and then everyone just figured him out and he never really stole that many more stolen bases after that
>>What did people figure out that made him just stop cold?
The problem with both statements is that neither is true. Numbers were carefully selected to make it true.
Gomez was caught stealing 9 times in 30 attempts before the All-Star break. He was caught just twice in 14 attempts after it.
This is just another example of people picking stats to support their argument. Why would you neglect to include his entire year’s stats? Oddly, you stopped at July.
He was 7/8 in August and 5/6 in September. Aren’t these relevant to the topic? Of course they are.
Gomez stole a base successfully for 1/5.76 times he was on base in the four months you included and 1/4.4 times he was on base in the months that you chose to ignore.
He actually improved as the season progressed, but it leads people to think that this is not true because of his 11/12 start in April, which is easily explained by many factors, including his rookie exuberance and a similar early lack of respect from pitchers and catchers.
This is simple: include all the stats and you get the entire picture.
by Johnny Safron on Oct 29, 2008 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You're
You’re very right Johnny, just cherry oicking those numbers isn’t really something that gives much of a picture, though I think he was on to something that we all observed.
In Gomez’s quick April start, he stole 9 bases in 10 attempts. But then over the next three months he stole only 10 bases on 18 attempts, attempting to steal fewer times than the preceding month every month (and being caught in his only attempt in the entire month of July!). So there is a great deal of evidence there that the defenses caught up to him for that time.
However, he seemed to make the necessary adjustments at the end of the year, stealing 12 bases on 14 attempts in August and September. Over a whole year, that’s a solid 36 bases in only 42 attempts, a great success rate.
So I guess Rays was onto something, but Gomez seems to have it sorted out for now.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Oct 30, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One key point
That Johnny covered is considering opportunities. It did appear that he become less aggressive in stealing bases, but I also think that he had fewer opportunities. He was getting on base in April, and didn’t really start getting on base again until August. The attempts relative to the number of times you are on first, with no one on second is the key. If anyone has that statistic, I’d be really curious how much it changed.
by snolls on Oct 31, 2008 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scouting
I think the scouting reports figured him out after a month or so: He always went on the first pitch. Once they realized that, they threw over a lot more, they did the slide step, they pitched out, and they were successful like eight times in a row in throwing him out. After that, they took the green light off and Gomez actually had to learn to read pitchers and anticipate throws over, etc. This neutralized him for a while. But he made the adjustment and I think he’ll be much more successful in 2009.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Oct 31, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think that 50+ SB isnt out of reach for him next year
maybe even more
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Oct 31, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't forget..
Gomez hasn’t showed he can hit at the Major league level yet. While he does have good defense and great speed, I don’t think you can compare him to Reyes or Crawford, two proven good hitters.
If he can learn to be more patient at the plate and reduce his strikeout-walk ratio, he has the potential to be a great player.
by Piranah14 on Nov 2, 2008 12:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Compare their first full seasons, all at the age 22...
SO FAR (which was the point) they’re quite comparable. And the speed is obviously similar, though Gomez is faster than either one.
That was the point of this discussion.
by DJSkillz on Nov 2, 2008 12:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Crawford and Reyes took time to learn how to hit major league pitching. This is not uncommon. Guys like Longoria are the exception rather than the rule. I think Crawford is a good comp, except Gomez is a better outfielder.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 2, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No Offense
But I’d like to see the comps of outfielders who were 22, good tools, and never amounted to anything. I bet they are much more common than the Carl Crawfords.
This is where scouting is more important than “comps”. I don’t know what major league scouts think, but I have no reason to think that they see him as another Carl Crawford. If they did, I think we would trade Gomez in a heartbeat, because we could probably get a really good 3B for the next Carl Crawford.
by snolls on Nov 2, 2008 1:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oversimplification
I’ve seen a lot of comments about Gomez as though his first full major league season is all we have to go on when we evaluate him. I would venture an educated guess that very few 22 year olds with his tools and minor league track record didn’t amount to anything, barring injury. The burden of proof is on you for that one.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 2, 2008 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
Gomez has a pretty good minor league track record for his age to go on. Yet a lot of people never give that track record its due.
by DJSkillz on Nov 3, 2008 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
that career 735 OPS is impressive. also the fact that he never OPSed over .778.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 3, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was going to say
You can’t just look at his aggregate OPS to get any kind of read on his upside. What leagues did he hit in? How old was he when he did it? When you consider that he was very young for every league he played in and all those leagues were extreme pitchers leagues, his minor league track record is pretty darn good.
I tend to weight his OPS at higher levels than his OPS as a teenager. As DJ says, he was very good at AA and AAA for his age. We were comparing him to Carl Crawford. His aggregate minor league OPS was 736 and his best OPS was 791.
Both those guys have good minor league track records, all things considered. Compare Gomez numbers to Trevor Plouffe, for example. Plouffe’s aggregate OPS is 699. He’s never has had an OPS over 736. Then consider that Plouffe was a year older per level and doesn’t have nearly the defensive or base running tools. And yet, Plouffe is still a highly ranked prospect by many and the best shortstop prospect from the 2004 draft.
You can see why many think Gomez will be a good player overall when you put his numbers in context.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 4, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plouffe is highly rated?
Only by dumb people. at this point he’s a bench player at best I would guess he gets under 600 at bats at the ML level that’s being optimistic at least.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 4, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
L rod would be a good comp
for him.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 4, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
777 as a 21 year old in AAA....
is pretty damn good, especially given his speed and defensive skills.
It’s not his fault the Mets rushed him.
by DJSkillz on Nov 4, 2008 10:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
and 772...
as a 20 year old in AA is equally impressive.
Given his age at those two levels, it’s pretty reasonable to expect that Gomez will get to at least that level or so in the major leagues, and that’s a pretty valuable player given his defense and speed added.
by DJSkillz on Nov 4, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ARL
Is way overrated. Unless you are destroying AA at 20 it doesn’t mean much to just hold your own.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 4, 2008 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Show me a list of 20 year olds who destroyed AA...
…and I’ll show you a list of superstars. Gomez is no superstar in the making (neither is Crawford). But he’s a good player, all things considered. And he has a chance to be very good. If you’re expecting superstardom, look somewhere else: Aaron Hicks has a shot. So does Angel Morales.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 5, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that's the point
Show me a list of guys that held their own at age 20 in AA and you’ll have a couple stars a few more average type guys some bench players and 50% that bombed out. Gomez is somehow immune to that 50%?
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 5, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No
He’s not immune. But his tools will make it more likely that he will have a solid career than not. It’s not s sure thing, but I would bet on him if I could.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 5, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still don't get how you guys voted
for Valencia at #1 twins prospect. Huge K’s long swing bad plate discipline and ok at best D.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 4, 2008 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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