Twins thinking about Orlando Cabrera

by Hoya on Oct 3, 2008 7:46 PM EDT Comment 26 comments

according to Joe C. in his blog:

"The Twins have identified White Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera as someone they might pursue on the free agent market this offseason."

read the whole entry here: http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/2008/10/03/offseason-target-series-leading-off-orlando-cabrera/

What do you guys think? Personally I don't think he's worth going after. I'd much rather see them try to get Orlando Hudson and move Casilla to short if they're going to spend money on the middle infield.

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Yeah, I don't see this as a great move

he just isn’t enough of an upgrade, i’d rather see them go after Hudson or Furcal,

by Eric in Madison on Oct 3, 2008 10:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hudson would be a Nice Pick Up

Rafael Furcal, No Way, This Guy would Command Way too much money and hes usually injured for 1/4 of the season.

by Tony_O on Oct 3, 2008 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In reality...

… in the half-dozen seasons previous to 2008, Furcal played 904 of a possible 972 games or 93 percent.

by Johnny Safron on Oct 6, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd still rather have Adam Everett

Orlando Cabrera is better offensively, but 3/30 million seems insane for a 34 year old good glove, bad bat offensive shortstop. I’d rather have Everett. Hell, I’d rather have Carlos Silva at 3/30 million than Orlando Cabrera. Silva would only be 32 at the end of the contract, and seriously, who really think Cabrera’s going to be worth 10 million next year, much less as a 36 year old?

We overperformed this year. Detroit and Cleveland both underperformed (although Detroit’s pitching is a shambles, so I don’t think they’re going to be all that good any time in the future). We’re not likely to compete next year. I don’t mean that we should just give in, but throwing big money at aging veterans is a bad idea. That money would much better be spent similar to how it was this year. Lamb and Everett didn’t work out, but they were good ideas. Even Livan wasn’t that bad of an idea (eats innings to offset young starters struggles overtaxing the bullpen) just overpriced. Spend a little on Everett type signings to solidify the holes in the team, and spend the rest on international and above-slot signing bonuses.

I hope Bill Smith doesn’t do something stupid and overestimate our team the way those idiots in Seattle did and sell the farm while locking us into stupid contracts in the hope of competing next year. It’s unlikely to happen. We overperformed in clutch situations by enough to cast doubt on our record. Don’t throw in the towel next year, we’ve got a chance, but don’t throw everything we have at it.

Signing Cabrera (or, in my opinion, any long term contract) would be stupid. Lock up young guys who are likely to improve, Draft well both nationally (seriously, screw slot) and internationally, and keep us way the hell away from any possibility of repeating the mid and late 90s. And, yeah, I tend to get wordy when I think people are about to do something stupid.

Hey, maybe this is all just a bluff to try to get the Sox to resign him to an overpriced contract? Maybe? But then again, this front office did claim Washburn.

by OldDutchPots on Oct 3, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"Not likely to compete"

We overperformed this year. Detroit and Cleveland both underperformed (although Detroit’s pitching is a shambles, so I don’t think they’re going to be all that good any time in the future). We’re not likely to compete next year.

I don’t know that the Twins really overperformed this year. Certainly they greatly outperformed their expectations, but I don’t know that players necessarily played above their heads – in other words, I don’t think there are many guys who you would expect to heavily regress next year because they had fluke seasons in 2008.

I am generally in agreement with you that the Twins shouldn’t mortgage the future or anything for a run now, but the Twins do have a large amount of payroll flexibility even taking into account their current long-term contracts – they were more than $10 million under their budget for payroll this year, and their currently-signed 2009 payroll is less than the 2008 payroll, with most of the roster already filled. A big contract (and, really, I greatly doubt there would be more than one of those) wouldn’t necessarily be an anchor if the acquisition underperforms.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Oct 3, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I say they played over their heads,

I’m talking mostly about how they hit with runners on. I don’t think anyone had a year out of line with what they can do next year. But not all hits are equal, and we got way more big hits this year than I expect we’ll get next year. What’d we hit with runners in scoring position? .310, something like that? If that regresses to a more reasonable .280, how many runs is that (I’m honestly asking. I don’t know)? Now, if Young plays the whole next year like he did the second half of this year, if Kubel improves, Cuddyer stays healthy (and finds a place to play), and Gomez doesn’t suck with the bat like he has for much of this year, then that could wash out the overperformance in the clutch. But still, in order to compete this year, we needed a lot go right for us.

by OldDutchPots on Oct 4, 2008 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

one more +

It’s very true that they probably won’t hit like they did last year with RISP. Another positive though is that barring a trade our rotation should be much better next year overall compared to this year. We shouldn’t have to deal with a Livan or Ponson type player for 2 or 3 months. We’ll have Liriano all year compared to just the 2 months we had him this year. On top of that all the guys who had little to no big league experience(Slowey,Blackburn,Perkins) should only be better coming into next year.

I have high hopes for this team, Detroit can’t rebound, the Sox are still extremely old so injuries will plague, I won’t believe much in the royals until they finally put together at least a .500 seasons. I definitely respect the Indians and think they will be a tough team if Hafner and Martinez are healthy.

CANO CANO CANO CANO CANO or HARDY HARDY HARDY HARDY!!!

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Oct 4, 2008 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RISP hitting -- not all a fluke?

In a comment on SBG, Ubelmann made a really interesting point about the Twins’ RISP hitting. I certainly always assumed it was a fluke and had to regress, which it did a little; no one thinks it will stay .310. But his point was that some of it might be legitimate. He said the Twins, probably more than any other team, emphasize and practice situational hitting. If you really work on hitting to the right side of the infield when the first baseman is holding a guy on first and stuff like that, you should be able to sneak a few more balls through. All teams do — so if you work on that more, why shouldn’t you succeed a bit more? Anyway its nice to think of the Twins continuing to excel in this department and I hope he’s right.

There’s also the advantage of team speed, which prevents force outs and double plays and increases the odds of knocking a runner in. And base-stealers force pitchers to throw more fastballs, which should also help hitters hit with men on base. It will be interesting to see if the Twins continue to have an above average improvement when hitting with RISP. I would love that.

by by jiminy on Oct 9, 2008 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Things that COULD regress

Remember, Cleveland and Detroit were sure things this time last year. I think we have to consider the possibility that a number of things happen.
1. Span doesn’t reach base 39% of the time.
2. Liriano, Baker, Slowey and Blackburn don’t all have ERA’s of 4.05 or less. In fact, until his implosion, Perkins was under 4.00 as well. These guys are good, but are ALL 5 going to be studs next year?
3. Joe Nathan gets injured. Seriously, just imagine.
4. Nick Punto continues to play, but doesn’t get on base 35% of the time.
5. Other teams figure out Mijares, and he isn’t the next K-Rod.
6. Any one of our starting pitchers or Mauer or Morneau miss significant time next year. If we lost just one of them, we could be in real trouble.
7. We don’t hit above .300 with RISP

Potential improvements from the team we already have:
1. Casilla could keep getting better.
2. Gomez could get on base more than 30% of the time.
3. Kubel could hit lefties as well as he hits righties, and the first half as well as the second half.
4. Brendan Harris could settle in, and put up numbers more similar to his 2007 line (improvements of .020/.015/.040 in BA/OBP/SLG)
5. One of Humber/Swarzak/Mulvey/Duensing could turn out to be better than our other #5 pitcher, and our rotation improves even more.

I’m really optimistic about next year, I’m just trying to show that there are a lot of areas that are not necessarily going to repeat themselves, and just one or two of them could hurt this team a lot.

by snolls on Oct 4, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

relief pitchers

I’m excited about Mijares too, but Jeez, the guy is 10 innings away from AA. Let’s give him a little room to breathe. I won’t be disappointed if he’s not K-Rod next year.

Just to add to your second list, other potential improvements would be Crain, Guerrier, and Neshek all rebounding. Any of them could potentially play much, much better than they did this year. They’ve all done it before. Or they could be done. It’s so hard to predict. But on the bright side, just about anything from them would count as improvement, so they should count as potential upside.

by by jiminy on Oct 9, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was kind of my point

and I also agree about the bullpen. There are a lot of reasons for optimism, but it just isn’t realistic to assume no regression.

by snolls on Oct 9, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no thanks

30 million dollars for an over-the-hill light-hitting middle infielder? Ask the Mets how they like Luis Castillo.

by by jiminy on Oct 4, 2008 5:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, SNAP!

Good one, I like it.

by Jesse on Oct 5, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's an even more important drawback to signing Orlando Cabrera....

aside from the fact that he’s basically a completely mediocre player and guys like Rafael Furcal and Mark Ellis are much, much better than him;

He’s going to be a Type A Free Agent!

So basically, if we sign Orlando Cabrera, we will be giving our biggest rival two top-40 draft picks in the process.

No way in hell should we sign Orlando Cabrera. I would argue that would be the single worst move the Twins will have ever made.

by DJSkillz on Oct 4, 2008 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera doesn't pass the Punto test

There’s a reason he will be auditioning for his fifth team in six years. If he doesn’t fit in one of the most volatile clubhouses in baseball, he surely wouldn’t fit here.

The Twins will likely sign Punto back (sigh). So anyone they acquire to play short everyday has to pass the Punto test: Will he be significantly better than Punto? In Cabrera’s case, the answer is no. Looking at his numbers, he’s just average offensively for a shortstop. Defensively, he’s above average. You could say the same thing about Punto. At 34, I think his best days are behind him, whereas Punto probably has a couple good years ahead of him as a 30 year old who’s never played a full season as a starter.

Guys who might be available and do pass the Punto test? I’ve mentioned Guzman. Don’t know what the Nationals would ask for him, though. He might be pricey. But there are more second basemen available and Casilla certainly passes the Punto test. So I would be inclined to move Casilla to short and sign Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Oct 4, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

average..

Orlando Cabrera is average, nothing special.. Too much money also

I would prefer Orlando Hudson, possibly Christian Guzman

No to Mark Ellis, ok stats and good defense. But coming off of shoulder surgery..

Regards,
Brian

by MagikLair on Oct 4, 2008 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

THis would

This would be disappointing. If we bother to commit dollars and a roster spot to a veteren, it would be nice for him to actually be an upgrade.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 5, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Vote "No" On Prop O.C.

No, thanks. He doesn’t hit, and he’s not a good enough fielder to make up for that. I’d rather take my chances with Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris. Hell, for the right price I might even try Adam Everett.

by Jesse on Oct 5, 2008 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

O.C.

O.C. at 10 million per year is a bit expensive….but he would be a solid #2 hitter for the lineup. Also we have gobs of cash to spend. I know we are on a budget, but we can afford to project a payroll that comes close to what Carl is willing to shell out. WHen bloggers are cheaper than Carl…….

Anyway back to the post. O.C. is a solid option at SS, as long as he isn’t the primary target. There are better options out there. The best one is obviously by trade, JJ Hardy.

I don’t see the Twins moving Casilla to SS. He seems to have settled into the 2nd base job. So I don’t see grudzy, Hudson, Ellis, or Cano… Although Cano would be nice to have for his bat maybe move him to third if he can handle it defensively…

The other main position to upgrade is 3b. Do we sign Crede with Harris and Buscher available when he gets hurt, Can we swing a deal for a 3b Beltre or Cano and move him to 3B.

IMO the 2 best fits are JJ Hardy and Beltre.

Then do we need to get another bullpen arm for next year?
we have:
Nathan
Breslow
Mirales
Neshek
Crain
Guerrier
and a bunch of minor leaguers….
so the questions are: Was Guerrier overused and will he be able to return to form next season? Will Neshek return from injury? Will Crain improve for next season? what about Mirales and the other 2 relief phenoms Slama and Delaney. Should we resign Reyes? What to do with Boof?

The rotation has 5 solid starters with a couple of options in the minors. If we keep Boof, we have anopther starter option. I don’t see an issue with these starters as a poster above is concerned.

I do see leftover payroll however and think that this could be a good opportunity to sign Liriano and Baker and possibly Kubel to long term front loaded contracts.

by doofus on Oct 5, 2008 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Front-loaded contracts

I think this is the direction you’ll see the team go in late January/early February once they’ve explored external options. If they have that extra money left over, it’s ideal to spend it internally, because those guys would only get more expensive down the road. They made good contractual decisions these last two years with Mauer, Morneau, Nathan and even Cuddyer, so I can definitely see that happening.

by Jesse on Oct 5, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction...

…not Front-Loaded contracts, because those don’t fly. What I meant was contracts that aren’t back-loaded; so, like Justin’s or Nathan’s, they’ll be a bit more even over the duration as opposed to large, incremental increases.

by Jesse on Oct 5, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I think that they will be relatively level contracts, once you consider bonus money. You also have to think Mauer will get consideration for adding 2 years at the end of his contract. The money is far better spent that way. However, I don’t know if Kubel with get a long-term contract unless they find something to do with Young or Cuddyer.

I think that Boof goes to the bullpen if he stays. I don’t think Slama gets to the majors this year, unless it is in september.

I like Hardy, Beltre, Huff, Ellis and Cano as ideas. I lean towards Huff, based on my perception of price. Does anyone know how likely Beltre would be to qualify as a type A free agent?

by snolls on Oct 5, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't the Twins have to make a decision on

Boof and Humber?

I thought they both are out of options and would need to be with the Twins to stay in the organization.

by caluofmn on Oct 6, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Being out of options would mean...

…the ultimate decision doesn’t come until sometime next March.

by Johnny Safron on Oct 7, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again...

the other real danger in signing Orlando Cabrera that no one is mentioning is that he is going to be a Type A Free Agent!

No way in hell should we basically allow our biggest rival to gain 2 top-40 draft picks (including our 1st rd pick) in order to sign Orlando Cabrera, who is an average to below average SS. That makes zero sense.

THAT is the biggest reason, above all the other good ones, not to sign him IMO.

by DJSkillz on Oct 6, 2008 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs