Minor League Report...October 4, 2008

by roger13 on Oct 4, 2008 10:23 AM EDT

Had lunch with Seth Stohs earlier this week when we talked a lot about the minor leagues. One question that keeps coming up in a lot of these discussions and frequently on this and other sites is how to evaluate the top players playing each year at Elizabethton?

The ETon Twins have either won or played in the league championship game during each of the last four seasons. Each year there are several players that finish their Appy season amongst the best in the league with very gaudy numbers. Yet, the Appy League is a short season rookie league with rosters that include several of the best current season college draft picks together with players earning promotions from the GCL Twins (usually previous year high school draft picks and the cream of the crop from the Dominican Summer League who had success in the GCL the previous year). I will try to take a look at how these players have progressed from the 2005 and 2006 teams.

The highest average in 2005 was Steve Tolleson/Draft 5th Round-2005/21 years old in 2005 (.321/.457/.422, 2HR, 56 ab) before moving up to Beloit (.176/.311/.284, 3HR, 102ab), earning him my year end ranking of #45. In 2006 Tolleson was the 28th ranked player beginning at Beloit (.287/.390/.392, 2HR, 171ab) before moving up to Ft. Myers (.268/.353/.408, 4HR, 157ab). Tolleson spent all of 2007 at Ft. Myers(.285/.388/.382, 5HR, 27sb, 487ab) moving up to #20. Although he had a stay on the DL, Tolleson had a break out season at New Britain in 2008 (.300/.382/.466, 9HR, 12sb, 343ab), moving up to the #8 spot in my post-season rankings. Juan Portes/D15-2004/19 (.286/.349/.494, 12HR, 245ab) was the highest ranked Elizabethton player in 2005 at #8. Portes moved up to Beloit in 2006 where he battled injuries all season (.231/.278/.310, 2HR, 268ab), dropping to #66. Last year Portes moved up to Ft. Myers where he improved (.269/.338/.410, 12HR, 495ab), ranking #27. This season Portes returned to Ft. Myers (.270/.319/.395, 12 HR, 456ab), dropping two spots to #29. Erik Lis/D9-2005/21 also had a big rookie season (.315/.356/.577, 10HR, 168ab) ranking #15 in 2005. Lis also moved up to Beloit in 2006 where he was their top hitter (.326/.402/.547, 15HR, 411ab), ranking #5. In 2007 Lis took another step up to Ft. Myers (.274/.334/.470, 18HR, 492ab), ranking #8. Lis is another player who lost part of this season to injury while at New Britain (.277/.318/.462, 11HR, 405ab), dropping to #21 in this season's rankings.

The top hitter at Elizabethton in 2006 was Steven Singleton/D11-2006/20 (.340/.368/.556, 4HR, 144ab), earning the #54 ranking. Steve moved up to Beloit in 2007 (.271/.294/.346, 2HR, 383ab), ranking #62. This season was Singleton's break-out year beginning at Beloit (.302/.348/.421, 6HR, 235ab) and then at Ft. Myers (.295/.371/.452, 5HR, 241ab), moving up to the #18 ranking in 2008. The 2006 Elizabethton rookie class also included Danny Valencia/D19-2006/21 (.311/.365/.505, 8HR, 190ab), breaking the 2006 Top 20 at #20. In 2007 Valencia was the top hitter in Beloit (.302/.374/.500, 11HR, 242ab) before a promotion to Ft. Myers (.291/.332/.422, 6HR, 230ab) which was good enough for a #12 ranking. This season Valencia led the FSL in hitting at the break (.336/.402/.518, 5HR, 220ab), then moved up to New Britain where he hit very well following the first few weeks (.289/.334/.485, 10HR, 266ab) which moved Valencia up to the #6 spot this year. Garrett Olson/D4-2006/21 was the #56 ranked player (.313/.396/.381, 0HR, 176ab) in 2006. The following year Olson slipped to #69 at Beloit (.219/.281/.310, 6HR, 416). This season Olson began back at Beloit (.247/.297/.368, 5HR, 247ab) before moving up to Ft. Myers (.201/.249/.258, 2HR, 209ab), ranking #55.

In 2005, Tolleson and Lis had big years at Elizabethton, ranking #45 and #15, respectively. Portes also had a very good year as a former high school draft pick, ranking the highest at #8. In 2006, Singleton, Valencia and Olson all had excellent seasons for the Appy League Twins, ranking #54, #20 and #56, respectively. As we move forward to 2008, Lis, Tolleson and Valencia have all progressed to New Britain, each playing very well. Singleton also has progressed with an excellent 2008 split between Beloit and Ft. Myers. Portes is still young, however, has not progressed as quickly as Lis, Tolleson and Valencia who all were college selections. Olson is a solid player who hasn't put up gaudy numbers at the plate since his rookie season at ETon.

What does this tell us? It appears to me that a player putting up big numbers at Elizabethton with a Top 20-25 ranking should have the potential to continue moving up the ladder toward the Twins. As I look at this season's rankings, the top ranked players from Elizabethton were Angel Morales/D3-2007/18 (.301/.413/.623, 15HR, 183ab) ranked at #19, Evan Bigley/D10-2008/21 (.300/.360/.587, 14HR, 213ab), ranked #30, Alex Soto/ndfa/21 (.276/.344/.621, 20HR, 116ab) ranked #34, and Jonathan Waltenbury/D7-2006/20 (.319/.382/.540, 10HR, 253ab), ranked #35. Morales was ranked very high and the players that preceded him would indicate that he should continue as a very good player as he advances through the system all the way to the Twins. It is less clear for Bigley, Soto and Waltenbury, however, there is an excellent chance that one of two will also develope into solid players in the higher levels of the system.

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Comments

Soto

… hit just 10 home runs in 116, not 20… but 10 in that few at bats is pretty impressive still.

Great stuff, Roger… I’m sure some could mention Ozzie Lewis, who I am certain ranked fairly well in your 2007 ranking. He woudln’t have ranked well in 2008. However, that is almost 100% due to injury.

In my mind, the better prospects are generally those who play at E-Town out of the GCL as opposed to the college guys, just due to generally being 2 years younger, but that doesn’t always stand true.

Enjoyed it Roger, keep up the graet work!

by SethSpeaks on Oct 4, 2008 9:14 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry Seth...

…that was a typo. Yes, the 2 is next to the 1 on these computers. But you are right, 10 homers in 116 at bats is some real power.

by roger13 on Oct 5, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I love this

You’re right. Every year, people dismiss the E-Ton Twins numbers because they are always good. But they have to count for something. Tolleson, Velencia and Singelton show that the numbers mean something.

I can’t wait to see how Morales does at Beloit. And I’m very interested in Waltenbury as a prospect.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Oct 4, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

People may be anticipating...

…Morales’ next season at Beloit as much or more than any player in recent memory. At least I am! He could develop into a major league superstar, on the same level as Mauer and Morneau. He has center field speed and defenisive ability, yet, has the power to play a corner outfield position. He has to work on his strikeouts, but lets remember that he was in high rookie ball as an 18 year old with one aspect of his game needing work. He won’t make it up to the Twins for at least 3 years, so he has lots of time to work on strikeouts. Personally, I can’t wait to see him playing in Beloit next summer…….an outfield of Morales, Hicks and Bigley would be fun to watch!

by roger13 on Oct 5, 2008 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to project too far

But I love the idea of an outfield made up of all CF speed, with the kind of power that doesn’t usually grace the Twins. If we could get 3 of Morales/Hicks/Gomez/Span/Revere to pan out and be on the team together in 3-4 years, we could have an outfield that covers serious ground, and gives us options at the top and middle of the order.

Better temper my dreams, cuz it could take a while.

by snolls on Oct 5, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Snolls...

…don’t forget to keep Rene Tosoni in that group. After playing corner outfield positions in his first year of professional ball at ETon in 2007, he jumped a level to Ft. Myers this year. He was one of the top hitters in the league and on the Miracle (higher average than Valencia when Tosoni went down with a broken foot) and when he returned for the playoffs…the Miracle had him in center field. Now the Miracle didn’t have a centerfielder with speed like Revere, but it was a bit they had Tosoni in center for the playoffs.

by roger13 on Oct 5, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Seth, I tried to keep this...

…to 2005 and 2006, so we could look at players with a bit more of a track record. Last season, 2007, Ozzie Lewis ranked #19; D.J. Romero ranked #14; Rene Leveret ranked #22, and Rene Tosoni ranked #25. All four of those players played as well as anyone at Elizabethton over the four years (2005-2008).

Unfortunately, Lewis missed about half of 2008 and played injured the other half. D.J. Romero spent two extended periods on the SL at Beloit. Injuries ultimately led to Lewis’ #69 ranking and Romero #67 this year. Tosoni on the other hand is a special player. He skipped a level moving up to Ft. Myers which certainly indicates that they are very high on him. He also missed about half of the season, but put up incredible numbers when he played…placing him at #17 this year.

Leveret began the season in EST as we heard rumors of his condition, or lack thereof, when he reported to spring training. When injuries hit Beloit Leveret moved up to the Snappers early in the season where he played very well…finishing with a ranking of #39.

It appears that Tosoni is special and should be considered amongst the top prospects in the organization…certainly Top 20 if not higher! Lewis and Romero also have a ton of potential based on 2007 at Beloit…but we will have to wait until 2009 to see their progress.

by roger13 on Oct 5, 2008 9:48 AM EDT reply actions

Correction...

…I meant…“at Elizabethton” which is where Lewis and Romero were in 2007.

by roger13 on Oct 5, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Beloit Outfield

With an outfield of Hicks, Morales, and Bigley where do you see this leaving guys like Severino and Harrington? Are they back at E-Town at the start of the year? Do you see any outfielders from Beloit either starting the year there again or getting released? Thanks and I really enjoy your reports.

by bruce w on Oct 9, 2008 7:14 AM EDT reply actions