Did Denard Span Have A Better Year Than Torii Hunter?

by hitormiss1414 on Oct 5, 2008 10:48 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

The evidence below proves that it may be true.

Ignoring minor league numbers, here are both players’ regular season statistics for 2008.

	Team	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	BB	SB	K	OPB	SLG	OPS	WPA
Denard Span	MIN	347	70	6	47	0.294	50	18	60	0.387	0.432	.819	1.76
Torii Hunter	LAA	551	85	21	78	0.278	50	19	108	0.344	0.466	0.81	0.58

Now below are Denard Span’s numbers adjusted to as many AB’s as Torii Hunter had in 2008.

	Team	AB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	BB	SB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS	WPA
Denard Span	MIN	551	111	10	75	0.294	79	29	95	0.387	0.432	0.819	2.79
Torii Hunter	LAA	551	85	21	78	0.278	50	19	108	0.344	0.466	0.81	0.58

According to these numbers right above, Span was better in all categories except home runs, RBI, and SLG %. What really sticks out to me is how much better Span was in runs, walks, and stolen bases. Hunter’s lead in RBI and SLG % aren’t even that big compared to Span either.

Span’s adjusted numbers shows that the way he was playing was very solid for a major league player. Considered by many to be a bust as a number one pick, including myself, he went from being ignored to being a legitimate player in the Twins future.

According to pay, Hunter received $16,500,000 during this season, while Span was paid about $450,000. Looking at the numbers above, I would definitely take Span over Hunter right now. In Span’s first major league season, he put up better numbers than Hunter, is about 9 years younger than him, and doesn't cost $55,000,000 million for five years.

Obviously the adjusted numbers aren’t for sure and Span could have gone on a huge slump to decrease what he had. But you can also make the argument he could have been even hotter as well.

Now I’ve always loved Hunter, and it is still incredibly tough to see him in another team’s jersey, but Span is starting to make me feel better about the situation. I’m hoping this year wasn’t just a fluke and he can continue to produce like this and be a consistent hitter for the Twins. He sure is making things look good right now.

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Nice post

I have to say that Span surprised me greatly. Even following the early successes, he turned into a fairly reliable hitter; I was amazed. I really thought Span would be a one-week wonder and then transform himself in LNP.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Oct 5, 2008 11:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I sure was suprised too, after following him through most of his minor league career, I thought he would hardly do anything in the majors. After he started to show strong AAA numbers at the end of 2007 and the beginning of this year, I started to believe. Then his numbers continued in the majors and the rest is history. Hopefully he can keep playing at this level.

by hitormiss1414 on Oct 6, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Torii Hunter made $16 million more than Denard Span, advanced with his team to the post-season, and got to play baseball outdoors in California on grass, rather than in Minnesota indoors on turf.

by Johnny Safron on Oct 6, 2008 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Haha, I see what you did there.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 6, 2008 6:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

What would my life be like without the '91 World Series?

by MJesser on Oct 6, 2008 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Solid work

Great idea to compare these two, especially after the year Denard had. The only nit-pick I have is that pro-rating time by plate appearances would have been more accurate than at-bats, but that’s a small detail because I don’t think it would have changed things too much. You made your point without it I think.

Span had a great year, it was fun to watch him every night. Hunter clearly has the edge in power, but one of the biggest factors may be his experience. A schedule gets to be pretty grueling—playing 162 (or 163) games over six months is a lot of work. Between the Twins and Red Wings this season, Span played 133 games (93 with the Twins, 40 with the Wings), which is equivalent to a full season. The real test for him will come over the course of next season, with a full year’s experience under his belt…because teams will have a full year’s scouting on him, too. And that’s one of Hunter’s largest advantages—he’s managed to produce year after year in spite of his weaknesses and in spite of teams knowing how to pitch to him. Over the next couple years Span won’t be a stranger anymore, and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts.

by Jesse on Oct 6, 2008 3:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Points!

Thank you for the compliment!

I agree about your idea on plate apperances would have been more accurate than at-bats. You are also right that it probably wouldn’t have changed the numbers that much either. Either way, it would show that if Span kept playing like he did all year, he probably would have had a better year than Hunter.

You make an excellent point on the experience factor and how Hunter has been able to play consistantly through scouting reports. That will be a good challenge for Span coming in next year to see if he can handle other teams knowing a lot more about him.

by hitormiss1414 on Oct 6, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

Any idea how the defensive numbers came out for them? I realize they didn’t play the same position, but it would be interesting to see how far above/below average for their positions they were, at least. That wouldn’t be entirely fair, as Span is playing a position that generally has poorer defensive outfielders than Hunter’s, but I think it would be interesting nonetheless.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Oct 6, 2008 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll use The Hardball Times for Defensive stats...

Hunter, CF
Innings: 1193
Balls In Zone: 289
Plays Made: 257
Revized Zone Rating: 889
Out-of-Zone Plays: 93

Span, CF/RF
Innings: 802
Balls In Zone: 193
Plays Made: 176
Revized Zone Rating: .912
Out-of-Zone Plays: 50

In center alone, Span’s numbers were 116-28-23-.821-11, which really should give you an idea of how good he was in right field. In center it’s a fairly small sample size compared to Torii, but you can take from this at least one thing—they’re both rated as pretty solid defenders, at least by the measures I’ve chosen.

by Jesse on Oct 6, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

At first, I thought it was surprising that Span’s OOZ was so much lower, even pro-rated, than Hunter’s, but that makes sense – Span’s neighbor in the outfield has a great range, too, so Span doesn’t have to go very far into RCF (which is probably good for his health, recalling the White Sox series).

I was also surprised that Span’s RZR in CF was so low, but 28 balls in the zone is a really small sample size, so I’m not putting much, if any, stock in that.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Oct 6, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also liked

the way he turned on a couple inside pitches and hit them over the baggie. This is just anecdotal, but I think he could become a 15 hr guy with that natural lift.

by wcooley on Oct 8, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs