2008 Offensive Predictions In Review

by Jesse on Oct 9, 2008 6:03 PM EDT in By the Numbers Comment 5 comments

A long time ago in a country far, far away....

Strangely enough, I never did revise these after we picked up Carlos Gomez. At any rate, I thought it'd be interesting to take a quick look to see how optimistic-slash-pessimistic I was back in January.

After the jump, we get to it...

Catchers

Player	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB
Joe Mauer	146	536	176	31	4	9	84	50	.328	.413	.451	1
Projected	139	518	172	34	3	14	74	56	.332	.416	.490	9
Mike Redmond	38	129	37	6	0	0	5	11	.287	.321	.333	0
Projected	45	153	44	8	0	1	8	16	.288	.323	.359	0

Mauer: Clearly I was optimistic with homer totals and stolen bases, but to be fair I wasn't optimistic enough about walks and strikeouts. That's just incredible.

Redmond: Projected within 28 OPS points, and I'm calling that batting average a push.

Also: I had predicted a line for Jose Morales as well, but we all know that didn't happen.

Infielders

Player	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB
Brian Buscher	70	218	64	9	0	4	19	42	.294	.340	.390	0
Projected	31	87	22	4	0	3	10	18	.253	.330	.402	1
Alexi Casilla	98	385	108	15	0	7	31	45	.281	.333	.374	7
Projected	64	205	53	8	2	0	18	30	.259	.318	.317	13
Adam Everett	48	127	27	6	1	2	12	15	.213	.278	.323	0
Projected	150	495	121	25	2	7	29	68	.244	.286	.345	10
Brendan Harris	130	434	115	29	3	7	39	98	.265	.327	.394	1
Projected	102	332	90	19	1	7	23	63	.271	.318	.398	4
Mike Lamb	81	236	55	12	3	1	17	32	.233	.276	.322	0
Projected	134	448	124	22	2	13	42	57	.277	.339	.429	1
Justin Morneau	163	623	187	47	4	23	76	85	.300	.374	.499	0
Projected	156	585	162	35	2	36	68	90	.277	.352	.511	1
Nick Punto	99	338	96	19	4	2	32	57	.284	.344	.382	15
Projected	72	152	37	6	1	0	16	29	.243	.315	.296	8

Buscher: He just hit a lot more singles than I thought he would.

Casilla: Wow, he really tailed off at the end of the year. Here's something interesting--after coming back off the disabled list in August, he hit just .225/.304/.289 in 142 at-bats, with 20 strikeouts and 15 walks. Was there something truly different about him after the set-back, or was it just the weight of a longer season settling in?

Everett: Did anyone see this miserable year coming, injuries and all? Oh well, I still lose this one.

Harris: He got more playing time than I thought he would, but he's still projected within 5 OPS points. I'm happy with that.

Lamb: Two former Astros...two cursed former Astros.

Morneau: A great year all around; not quite the homer totals, but he made up for it with all those doubles, as well as the increase in walks. Great year.

Punto: I expected something more middling than what he did, but I'm not complaining. He had a decent year.

Also: Follow the link at the start of this post, I did projections for Matt Tolbert and Matt Macri as well...but their numbers were pretty small on that list.

Outfielders

Player	Games	AB	Hits	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB
Michael Cuddyer	71	249	62	13	4	3	25	40	.249	.330	.369	5
Projected	153	581	162	35	5	26	73	127	.279	.359	.491	5
Jason Kubel	141	463	126	22	5	20	47	91	.272	.335	.471	0
Projected	138	483	135	37	2	19	52	86	.280	.350	.478	6
Craig Monroe	58	163	33	9	0	8	16	48	.202	.274	.405	0
Projected	92	248	65	14	0	11	14	55	.262	.302	.452	0
Denard Span	93	347	102	16	7	6	50	60	.294	.387	.432	18
Projected	24	51	12	3	0	0	4	11	.235	.291	.294	4
Delmon Young	152	575	167	28	4	10	35	105	.290	.336	.405	14
Projected	153	582	171	42	1	20	35	118	.294	.332	.473	13

Cuddyer: Even if he'd been healthy, this was one of my more optimistic predictions. Next year's will be tempered quite a bit.

Kubel: He had pretty much the same year he had last year; in 2007 he hit .273/.335/.450. The total bases went up, as did walk and strikeout rates. A good year for him, though.

Monroe: My all-or-nothing prediction was accurate, but the "all" didn't come often enough...either that, or the Twins weren't as patient with him as I expected them to be. Ciao, dude.

Span: I didn't see this coming. I just didn't. He should be the leadoff hitter going forward until he loses the job.

Young: Everything was pretty right on target here...except he hit half the bombs I was looking for, and the doubles weren't quite up to scratch, either. I hope he's around next year, because I'd like to see him grow.

Also: Garrett Jones, Jason Pridie and Darnell McDonald have projections too, but aren't worth more than a brief mention.

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Comments

Where's Gomez?

What would my life be like without the '91 World Series?

by MJesser on Oct 9, 2008 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey

Hey, wow, a lot of those predictions ended up pretty damn good!

Definitely confirms one thing we all know: the young guys surprised and the “veterans” disappointed mostly. Bodes well for the future.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Oct 9, 2008 10:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting observation

Here’s something I noticed that you may want to consider in your projections for next year – with the exceptions of a few light-hitting players (Punto, Casilla, Span), every single slugging percentage projection was optimistic. Some of them were really close (like Kubel), some of them were not at all your fault for missing (like Cuddyer), but in general, there seemed to be a bit of a high-power bias in your projections, especially for the middle-of-the-order bats (Morneau, Mauer, Young).

I decided to check on those players’ career stats before posting this, thinking that you’d projected career highs in SLG for all of them (which seemed more than a bit optimistic), but actually, all three of your projections were less than their 2006 results.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Oct 10, 2008 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very impressive predicitons

Who would have guessed Young would have failed you so miserably in the “doubles” and “HR” numbers. Then again you might have had your expectations a little high for someonne that young I guess.

by montanatwinsfan on Oct 10, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morneau's projected slugging is wrong

Just thougt I’d mention it. If he hit as many HR’s triples etc. as you say, his slugging would be .528. I promise I didn’t go checking all of your calculations, I just noticed that his projected and actual slugging were pretty close with way less homeruns. Either way, a lot of the predictions were very good. If you, or anyone else predicted Lamb or Span hitting the way they did then they’d be a god.

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 15, 2008 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs