Morneau, Mauer Take 2nd, 4th in MVP Voting

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 18, 2008 2:30 PM EST Comment 44 comments

Dustin Pedroia came out the big winner today, a BWAA decision I actually can't argue with, but the Twins had a nice showing themselves. Morneau recieved 257 votes, behind Pedroia's 317 to take second place in the AL, and, perhaps even more hearteningly, Mauer took fourth place with 188 votes.

It's nice to see Mauer get some recognition in that list. it's been long speculated in the corners of the internet that Mauer has bene maybe more deserving of the national accolade mroe focused on Morneau, and its good to see Mauer's truely one in a generation talent get a little more national play.

Interestingly enough, with Kevin Youkilis finishing 3rd in the voting, the top four spots were horded by Red Sox and Twins.

Also, Jason Bartlett got one 5th place vote good for 6 points. I know he's a good defender and an nice overall player but really, what's this world coming to.

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East Coast Bias strikes again.

Morneau is being punished for winning the homerun derby when they thought Hamilton should have gotten it. Morneau is MVP in my book.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Nov 18, 2008 3:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

absolute MVP

if Boston had lost Pedroia, yes they would have been worse…but if the Twins lost Morneau, we would have been at the bottom of the division. They must take into account that Morneau carries this team, while Boston is filled with several other players who contribute.

Glad to see an Angels fan “voted” Morneau!

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 18, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't work for MVP

Based on that theory, the most deserving player would always be an outstanding one on a crappy team. After all, without that one standout, that team stinks, really stinks, or really, really stinks. Mike Sweeney in ‘99 and ’00 would have been a front-runner based on that approach. You can’t award and MVP based on taking the player off the team.

The other comment toward the award that makes little sense to me is one elsewhere about Pedroia. A Boston fan suggested that you have to watch him daily to appreciate him. Christ, if you have to do that, how good can the guy be? Anyone who really watches baseball and understands it can see Mauer in a three-game series and understand how damned good he is. The sign of a great player isn’t having to make a tedious, repetitious review of him over dozens of games or more.

by Johnny Safron on Nov 19, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Johnny Safron's second paragraph

but disagree with the first paragraph.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Nov 20, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fortunately...

…the people with the MVP agreed with me. Sweeney was never among the top 10 vote-getters despite a couple of tremendous, steroid-era seasons.

Where would the Twins have been without Joe Nathan? Bottom of the division. That’s a certainly. So he’s as valuable as Morneau, based on the “where would they be without him?” approach.

by Johnny Safron on Nov 20, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem....

is that that is NOT a certainty, at all.

You put a replacement closer out there for him and we maybe lose 5-6 more games. Maybe.

by DJSkillz on Nov 21, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Replacement closer

I guess I agree with your point in general. And in past years it is true. But in this case, Nathan was the only guy in the pen who was above replacement level (unless you count Breslow). So in this case, it really is true. It was bad enough out there with Nathan. Without him, we’re talking about night after night of total collapses. Given the lack of available options, we’re talking a 20-win swing and the bottom of the league.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meant to say...

…In this case your point isn’t true.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 21, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But I think in any case like this...

you have to replace the player with an average guy. It’s not like the Twins would have the same relief corp if they didn’t have Nathan. Of course they’d have someone decent. So I think any discussion has to be Nathan vs. and “average” closer, and I just don’t see that swing at all. Maybe 6 games or so max I think.

by DJSkillz on Nov 22, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And compare that loss....

with say, the loss of a Morneau or even more importantly, Mauer, compared to an average player at their position and you’re talking about a far larger difference IMO.

by DJSkillz on Nov 22, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You mean Value Over Replacement Player?

Shocking that that should/would be a criteria for MVP? Those who actually vote apparently feel like VORP is the baseball equivalent of gay marriage or being soft on terror but I think looking at VORP as at least a reality check would be a huge step forward for how the MVP is awarded.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Nov 22, 2008 7:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

well said.

Rob Neyer’s still my hero.

by DJSkillz on Nov 22, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More like...

…a dozen. Minimally.

by Johnny Safron on Nov 21, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When they announced it....

…I recalled the Boston series in the Dome, when I had the good fortune of getting my neighbor’s seats three rows up from the first base dugout. I remember watching Pedroia play and thinking, he’s a good player in a Wally Backman kind of way, but he’s not the best player on the field by any stretch. We heckled him mercilessly for having gotten lost on his way to a little league game, missing his Elmo doll, needing to do his ’rithmatic homework, etc.

The best player on the field from that vantage point was Mauer, followed closely by Morneau and Youkilis. Pedroia wasn’t even in the top ten if you counted pitchers. If this is what the Sox fans saw every day for a whole season, he wasn’t even the most valuable player on his team. They just got caught up in the sentimentality of the underdog.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 20, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

next time tell that troll to go back under his bridge

i hate the red sox and his little cocky ass almost as much as former red sux coco crisp

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2008 12:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Funny...

…I actually think Mauer was considerably more valuable than Morneau this season. Honestly, I think the AL MVP award should have gone to Mauer.

Then again, when Morneau won his MVP I had him as the third most valuable player on his own team, so what the heck do I know?

by Bobomojo on Nov 18, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Mauer would have been a defensible choice.

by Johnny Safron on Nov 18, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They are both great players, and you all are lucky to have them on your team.

Recipient of the 2008 "The Iron Man" award from scottnak of Halos Heaven!

by 44FAN on Nov 19, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bored with Boston

I’m at the point where I would rather see the Yankees win than the Red Sox. It was cute, it was a good story. Now move on. Nobody likes you.

Originally Posted by ESPN.com –

Boston little man Dustin Pedroia won the AL MVP award Tuesday.

Generously listed at 5-foot-9

, the Red Sox star was the top AL rookie last year while winning a World Series ring.
Pedroia quickly became a fan favorite at Fenway Park with his meaty swings and scrappy approach. This year, in a lineup depleted by injuries to David Ortiz and Mike Lowell and the midseason trade of Manny Ramirez, Pedroia took his hearty hacks wherever needed.

Have we found a new Dirt Gritstein???

by nathaneide on Nov 18, 2008 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stupid formatting

by nathaneide on Nov 18, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No Eckstein

The cool thing about Pedroia, though, is that he wasn’t particularly adored by scouts or “insiders” before he showed his worth in the Majors. PECOTA was very optimistic about him and that panned out.

Now, I’m not saying he was the MVP (that was either Sizemore, A-Rod or Mauer), but he’s much easier to like than your typical scores-a-perfect-800-on-the-grit-o-meter player.

by PhoenixV on Nov 18, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No MVP either

True, Pedroia is a lot better than Eckstein ever was. But can anyone really say with a straight face they’d rather have him on their team than Alex Rodriguez? A-Rod totally crushed him in every offensive category and played a harder position. But he was compared to his previous years, and Pedroia was compared to players under 5’7". That’s totally an Eckstein effect: honoring him for being good for his size more than for being good. Compare him head to head to A-Rod and it’s not even close. Or to Mauer, who had equivalent stats but won a gold glove at a much harder, more important position. If Pedroia had been a shortstop, maybe. But a second baseman? Chase Utley blew him away as a hitter and a fielder, and he finished 14th in the NL vote. He didn’t even have as high an OPS as Ian Kinsler, and I don’t remember any MVP talk about him. This selection is a joke.

by by jiminy on Nov 19, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And many more..

Your Sizemore comparison is perfect too — much better stats, much more important defensive position — so how is he worse? Hell, Evan Longoria had better stats and played a harder position. Youkilis crushed Pedroia offensively and played a solid third base. If Pedroia is such a stud, why didn’t he play third? Because he’s good, for a little second baseman. Youkilis and Morneau are just good.

The way I see it, Mauer actually did win. Morneau’s candidacy was based primarily on hitting 130 rbi, which in turn was based on hitting behind a guy with an OBP of .413. So Mauer’s contributions were recognized by the voters; his points were just split into two entries.

by by jiminy on Nov 19, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a little too much love for the little people

i hate pedrioa and the red sux since im also a rays fan and hope that they get used to being below the rays in the AL east

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 19, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bartlett's vote

I laughed almost as hard about Bartlett’s 5th place vote as I did about one of the NL writers picking Albert Pujols 7th. The BBWAA may have gotten the overall winners mostly right this year, but there’s still a LONG way to go.

In a weird way I’m happy that Morneau didn’t win, because such a mistake would kind of had made up for the 2005 AL Cy Young Travesty, and I’m not ready to let that one go yet. No, I need another 30 years of brooding…

by PhoenixV on Nov 18, 2008 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Makeup Awards

I think Morneau’s 2006 MVP was the “makeup call” for the Cy Young debacle – Mauer and Jeter had way better claims to that award.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 19, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bartlett got the 5th place vote from mark topkin, the rays beat writer for the tampa tribune

he was the one who also voted him the rays MVP, him even getting 1 MVP is just so stupid that i have lost some respect for topkin giving him a 5th place vote

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 23, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In his most recent

….blog, Rob Neyer makes a case for Mauer. It is worth the read on ESPN.

by ahope on Nov 18, 2008 6:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pedroia

I’d have voted for Pedroia for MVP too, btw. It’ because of his guts, grit, and determination to win…

No, really. He hit .326/.376/.493. Not too damn shabby for a second baseman, not too shabby at all. He was right there next to A-Rod and Sizemore, and ahead of Mauer in VORP, and BP has him as a slightly above average second baseman defensively.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 18, 2008 9:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you have him as MVP

for his position…MVP = Most Valuable Player overall! Sure, Pedroia was great! I really like that kid except when the Twins play the BoSox, but in my mind, Morneau is more valuable because of the whole carrying of the team.

Morneau should have won the Gold Glove this year too! Pena is NOT nearly as good a 1B as Morneau! Plus, Pena played in less games while Morneau was out there every day giving it his best!

by 33MorneauMVP on Nov 18, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

Let’s see, comparing Mauer to Pedroia

Mauer
.328/.413 /.451

Pedroia
.326/.376/.493

Advantage Mauer.

As for defense, Mauer is the creme of the crop for catchers, which is a more important position than second base. So advantage Mauer there too.

The main thing Pedroia had going for him is he’s a dead pull hitter who used the Green Monster as a doubles machine. Put him in the Metrodome and he hits .300/.350./.450 with average defense.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Nov 18, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep....

Mauer should have been the MVP, just as he should have been in 2006 IMO. And it was the same argument with Jeter then too. Mauer is more valuable than Morneau.

I LOVE Rob Neyer’s article today. I think I may have even been the one that prodded him with a chat question that he answered in his chat today (I posted as Dane from Nashville even though my name is Dustin; Dane’s my brother in Minneapolis). I’ve always had great respect for Neyer and it increased 10-fold tonight.

Eventually the voters will realize that Mauer and Utley are more valuable than Morneau and Howard and will look past the “sexy” power stats. It’s just evolution. Or as Neyer puts it, an end to the “flat-earthers” in thinking in the baseball world.

by DJSkillz on Nov 19, 2008 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chase Utley .292 .380 .535 .915
Ian Kinsler .319 .375 .517 .892
Dan Uggla .260 .360 .514 .874
Dirt McGritty .326 .376 .493 .869
Mark DeRosa .285 .376 .481 .857
Brian Roberts .296 .378 .450 .828
(Roberts also had 40 steals)

Take away the Green Monster and Pedroia is Mark DeRosa. Feh.

by by jiminy on Nov 19, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BWAA response

But… but… Mauer’s team missed the playoffs! It’s a well-known fact (that’s right, FACT!) that players who don’t make the playoffs are completely valueless – the Twins could just as well fielded a team full of old ladies from a bridge club in Edina, for all the good it did them. Also, Mauer didn’t score as many runs – a real MVP would have made it around the bases by sheer force of will. Oh, and I saw Pedroia like 900 times on ESPN games, so he must’ve been awesome.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 19, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention...

walks are just luck. They’re not a skill for a hitter at all, so why should we value OBP?

haha

by DJSkillz on Nov 19, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Offense Advnatage Mauer

VORP has Mauer at two run behind Pedroia, who is two runs behind the AL leader, A-Rod. I could be wrong, but I believe VORP accounts for park effects and things as well. Pedroia did hit better at home, mostly in teh average department, but then again, Mauer had even more severe home road splits than Pedroia did (hitting much better in the supposedly pitcher friendly dome) and many players have a bit of a home road split going on. Again, BP had pedroia listed as an above average defender.

And if we’re giving the MVP award to the biggest slugger, sorry, Youkilis had a much bigger year offensively than Morneau, not to mention A-Rod.

Mauer and Pedroia is a tough fight (toss in Sizemore and maybe A-Rod in there too if you totally disregard team success, which I don’t entirely do, ie, if a team is terrible, it kind of breaks the tie for me.) but I still think Pedroia is a fine choice. Not gonna’ be a popular position around here, but we’re not exactly unbiased.

No shame in being the second or third most valuable guy and having two guys in the top five or six instead of being the one guy at the very top.

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 19, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Important caveat

One thing to note: VORP severely underrates the walk. If you look at a more reliable metric, such as park-adjusted wOBA, Mauer had a slightly better offensive year than Pedroia. Add in defense and replacement level and that difference becomes moderately big.

However, I won’t blame the BBWAA too much for this one. They didn’t select the right player, but it wasn’t a huge mistake.

by PhoenixV on Nov 19, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Severely Underrates Walks

Um, no, not really. I don’t think VORP does anything like underrating walks. Walks are included in both positive parts of the calculation. The runs created forumla has been shown to be very accurate all around. If VORP underrated walks, Mauer would be WAAAYYYYY down the list, as that huge OBP is his strongest suit.

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 20, 2008 4:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think this is what PhoenixV is referring to...

Tangotiger’s take on VORP

Lord knows this stuff is way above my head, but I trust Tango when it comes to crunching numbers like this. If he says VORP undervalues walks, I tend to believe him.

by Bobomojo on Nov 20, 2008 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

If I’m reading that correctly (it’s fairly deep stats stuff, some of which I’m not familiar with), the core of the problem is that VORP is that, in the formula used by VORP to calculate run production, adding a single contributes far more to your VORP than adding a walk, when the values should be much closer. From the formulas in that link, it looks like

I’d be interested in seeing the VORP numbers with Tantotiger’s recommended changes factored in.

I still don’t think Pedroia’s a bad pick, for the same reasons AdamOnFirst mentioned earlier – it’s arguable, at the very least (although the BWAA picked the wrong runner-up), much like the Mauer-Jeter debate two years ago that the BWAA got completely wrong but picked a Twin anyway.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 20, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I agree Pedroia’s not a bad pick. I would have voted Mauer, and tend to think both Sizemore and Lee were more valuable then Pedroia (despite the Indian’s failures). But he’d be in my top 5, if not top 3, which, compared to the colossal mistakes of MVP voting in the past, ain’t half bad. As you said, this wasn’t Morneau in 2006, this pick actually makes a lot of sense. And, I think they got the other 3 major awards right, so this makes for a pretty damn successful post-season awards system. As long as we all agree that gold gloves no longer mean a thing…

by Bobomojo on Nov 20, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very very

Very very interesting. Adding in roughly what the underrated walks are worth would put Mauer and Pedroia’s VORP at about the same (converting 10 extra walks to a run).

I hadn’t read any of that before, actually. Very fascinating.

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 20, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Don’t blindly trust Baseball Prospectus. VORP is a nice quick-n-dirty measure, and one of the more well-known sabermetric stats, but it has its flaws. If you want the best valuation of offense on the planet, go to StatCorner.com and check out (park adjusted) wOBA and bRAA (batting runs above average). Even better, read The Book.

by PhoenixV on Nov 20, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

I think Mauer definitely should have won the MVP. I don’t think Pedroia is truly undeserving, but I don’t think he had the same impact on his team that either Mauer or Morneau had. Luckily I feel confident he will not sustain this level of play.

Shameless promotion: I apologize…
I started a baseball forum/message board thing for all of Minnesota Baseball… From the Saints, to the Gophs to the MIAC check it out if you feel so inclined.
http://mnbaseballforum.com/

"Rickey Henderson, pick up the phone, man, it's me... you"

by Daymonster on Nov 19, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs