Who Could the Twins Lose In the Rule 5 Draft?
Well, let's go through the rules first. I'm going to take it for granted that you understand players on the 40-Man roster are protected.
Really, the biggest and most basic thing you should know is that players 18 or younger (when drafted or signed) are exempt from the Rule 5 draft for five years; players 19 or older are exempt for four years. There are different costs associated with how the drafting team in the Rule 5 uses their picks, and there are rules about how long players must be active in order to be eligible for the draft, but to begin to scan for players left exposed by the Twins this is all we need for now.
In previous years the Twins have used the Rule 5 draft to grab guys like Ryan-Rowland Smith and Alejandro Machado. Of course we know the Twins scored big with Johan Santana (in the long long ago of 2000), but thanks to Wikipedia, there are a number of guys who have posted some good (or at the very least, star-crossed and useful) careers after being taken in the Rule 5: Bobby Bonilla, Shane Mack, George Bell, Dave Hollins, and Willie Hernandez. More recently, in addition to Santana, Shane Victorino and Josh Hamilton have been selections.
Last week after the Twins made seven more additions to their 40-Man roster, leaving just one open slot, a lot of guys were put in a position of instability. Minnesota's farm system stocks more talent this off-season than it has in recent memory, and for the first time in as long as I can remember there will be a position player or two that I'm concerned could get taken.
A team can never cover all of its assets, but in one sense it's a good problem to have. Nevertheless there are a number of prospects exposed, and with the Rule 5 approaching with the Winter Meetings in December, the Twins are leaving some tempting bait on the hook.
Jay Rainville, RHP
2009 Age: 23
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004
Rainville had a good start, rolling through his first three stops in roughly his first 14 months in the Minnesota system. Baseball American ranked him as the Twins' 8th best prospect going into 2006, which was also the year he lost completely due to surgery on his shoulder. He had a good comeback year in 2007 in Fort Myers, and after hot start there in '08 was promoted to double-A New Britain. As a 22-year old there he struggled sometimes, posting a 5.78 ERA in 123 innings, but in addition to his strikeouts dropping and continuing to be a fly-ball pitcher, he also lost a bit of his command. Rainville doesn't project as a front-line starter by any stretch of the imagination right now, but he's still a very talented arm. A year ago I might have predicted he'd debut for the Twins sometime late in 2009. Now I'd probably push that back to 2010, but a strong campaign this next summer could alter that as well. Jay is just one of the pitchers I'd have preferred to be added to the 40-Man roster in place of Drew Butera.
Erik Lis, 1B/LF
2009 Age: 25
Drafted: 9th Round, 2005
Out of the position players available in the Minnesota farm system, Lis is the one that could be drawing the most interest. In college he was a hitting machine, and even in his first two stops with the Twins the power was on full display. In '07 in Fort Myers he had a decent season, and as a result spent all of last summer in New Britain. He didn't display the power in terms of home runs, but the bigger concern for me was how often he was (or wasn't) getting on base. While the walk rates continued to drop, the strikeout rates were sneaking higher. He hit a lot of ground balls this season, and he hasn't been a guy who hits a lot of line drives, either. Lis did miss the last portion of the season with a shoulder injury, so there is some forgiveness. But with no defense to speak of, his bat is his ticket to success. At 24 he wasn't young for double-A, and he didn't exactly rake there, so it's not as though the Twins are exposing a can't-miss prospect...but he's still a hitter, and hitters are always in demand. I'd still prefer to see what he could do in Rochester.
Kyle Waldrop, RHP
2009 Age: 23
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004
With this move it seems the Twins have given up on the compensatory pick they drafted after losing LaTroy Hawkins. Waldrop missed all of 2008 with shoulder issues, which means his 59 innings in double-A back in '07 as a 21-year old could be the last vision the organization has of him. And that vision wasn't really promising. A 5.34 ERA in those 59 innings, along with 74 hits, is a shame to have as a departing audition because in spite of his mediocre stuff had been effective in prior stops. He's not a strikeout guy, but when healthy had good control and did a pretty solid job of keeping the ball in the park. I think it's too early to give up on Waldrop, as I believe his skills could be useful at the back of a rotation or in the bullpen, but I have to think that if he's taken he will simply be a casualty of a farm system that's littered with pitching prospects.
Yohan Pino, RHP
2009 Age: 25
Signed: Venezuela, 2004
Pino's curious success has hit a stumbling block at double-A. The strikeouts are down as better hitters aren't as baffled by a sub-par fastball, and he's been getting knocked around a little bit. Without great stuff and at 25, he'll be too old for any success to really make an imprint unless he would be moved to Rochester next year, but with the Twins constantly moving him from the rotation to the bullpen and back again it's clear that even they don't know what to do with him. Everything has been stood on its head since his promotion to the Rock Cats, and his exposure doesn't bother me as much as it does with a few of these other pitchers, but I also believe that consistency and confidence can do a lot for a player. An organization showing a little confidence in a guy like Pino, with unimpressive stuff, could give him the motivation he needs to find the next level. It's unlikely, but it's not unheard of.
David Winfree, OF
2009 Age: 23
Drafted: 13th Round, 2003
Next to Lis, Winfree is the second position player I can see being taken. He was shifted to the outfield this year, making room for Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia, but he managed to show improvements. In his second full season in double-A New Britain, Winfree cut down on the strikeouts, significantly increased how often he walked and added 41 points to his isolated power (.159 to .200)...all in spite of losing 15 points off his batting average, his OPS was up 35 points, to 769. His lines aren't outstanding, and compared to guys like Matt Tolbert he could come off looking like a younger incarnation of him, but there's some raw power there. Matt Macri posted a .205 ISO in double-A, but at age 25. Winfree is three years younger, and he's shown marked improvement from '07 to '08. In some ways Winfree's progression is still on a clear forward trajectory, and in that way can come off as a bigger oversight than not protecting Erik Lis. I don't like his exposure at all.
Ryan Mullins, LHP
2009 Age: 25
Drafed: 3rd Round, 2005
Mullins is a southpaw who has a history of keeping the ball on the ground and, more importantly, in the park. In late 2007 the Twins gave him a shot in triple-A, and he was knocked around in four starts, so they stuck him back with the Rock Cats for the whole of 2008. He wasn't as good in New Britain his second time around, and at 24 he doesn't have a lot of time to wait around hoping to be promoted, but it's not like he was horrible. A left-hander with decent velocity who can keep the ball on the ground is the profile of a pitcher that can almost always find work, and I have a hard time believing the Twins simply couldn't find a spot for him. He's no ace, just like every other pitcher on this list, but it certainly seems the organization has arms of higher priority. Again: Drew Butera?
Zach Ward, RHP
2009 Age: 25
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2005
Ward came over from Cincinnati in the Kyle Lohse trade (remember all the Zach Ward 7-0 talk?), and there's one asset that's worth keeping him for: he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Over his last four stops in the minors, he's induced ground balls anywhere between 55 and 71 percent of the time. In 367.1 minor league innings he's allowed just 12 home runs. Control was an issue this season, as he walked about 12% of his hitters, but historically he's never been that erratic, and even though he's not really a strikeout pitcher he still sent down 81 men in 93 innings, and that's not bad. Right now the only thing working against him is his age, but that could be solved by a promotion to the Rochester bullpen. If he slips through the drafted unselected, the Twins will have gotten away with one.
Matthew Fox, RHP
2009 Age: 26
Drafted: 1st Round, 2004
Superior strikeout numbers in 67 innings in '04 and '06 sandwiched a lost season in 2005 due to labrum and rotor-cuff surgery. The result of allowing Eddie Guardado to walk (the first time), Minnesota kept Fox in rookie ball for his return in 2006, and he delivered...big time: 1.12 WHIP, 0.22 HR/9, 10.27 K/9. The Twins tempered their excitement and moved him up just one level the following year, and shifting between the rotation and the bullpen in Beloit he still posted promising numbers; and he should have, he was 24. At 25 this last summer he was finally moved to Fort Myers in high-A, and in 14 starts and 18 relief appearances he still struck out 99 in 117.1 innings. Fox has pitched well, but Minnesota has refused to rush him, and as a result he's far too old for his competition, and therefore it's hard to judge whether or not he's as good as his numbers. Fox could turn into a solid relief option for someone out there, but it seems like the concerns about his injuries are too much to keep him from being exposed by the Twins.
Tim Lahey, RHP
2009 Age: 27
Drafted: 20th Round, 2004
After being drafted in last year's Rule 5 draft, number one overall, I'll be shocked if Lahey is not taken again. He's a monster of a man who can induce ground balls, but he struggled a bit in Rochester this last year. His peripherals insist he was better than his 5.43 ERA, and he missed a few bats, but control has always been an issue with Lahey, walking 3.47 men per nine innings in his minor league career. Still, he's an arm that some teams (Cubs, Phillies) see as major-league ready, but apparently the Twins are content with their internal options without him. Lahey is almost certain to be taken.
There are other players available as well: Juan Portes, Matt Moses. But those nine above are all players who will definitely be getting some consideration from organizations around the league. You can never tell when you'll bull a Bonilla or a Santana out of the Rule 5 hat, but whoever we lose will be replaced, probably, by someone we've plucked from another system. And that's where you hope your external scouting department is better than those who made the internal options on who to protect.
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34 comments
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Comments
Excellent work, Jesse....
Thanks for that.
I too have concerns about losing a number of these guys. I think we stand to lose a few this year.
And protecting Butera makes no sense to me either.
by DJSkillz on Nov 25, 2008 10:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
One big problem Jesse,
…the last change to the collective bargaining agreement changed the rules to 4 years if over 19 and 5 years if 18 when drafted and signed.
by roger13 on Nov 25, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're right Roger, as usual.
I read it quickly, and went backwards. From 3/4 I thought it used to be 2/3. Thanks for the heads up, I’ll correct that.
by Jesse on Nov 25, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ward
I agree with your assessment of Ward. Other than Lahey, I don’t see any of the other guys being draft risks. I suppose Fox could go in the minor league phase and someone might take a chance on Mullins in the hope of converting him into a situational lefty. But Ward is the most major league ready of all the guys on the list, IMO.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 25, 2008 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great post!
I personally most concerned about losing Lis. We have plenty of pitching prospects obviously, but Lis is one of pretty good hitting prosepects. He has some power which is definitely something we need.
by hitormiss1414 on Nov 25, 2008 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lis
For whatever reason, pure hitters don’t get drafted very often. I suppose it’s because there’s little sense in bringing a guy in as a pinch hitter and risk ruining his career for lack of at bats when there are guys like Cliff Floyd available for cheap on the free agent market.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 25, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
cliff floyd is probably done, if he has to have surgery on his shoulder
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 26, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm didn’t think about that but that makes a lot of sense.
by hitormiss1414 on Nov 25, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I worry...
about Rainville/Waldrop/Fox.
I think any of those guys could be grabbed and stashed (like Santana) for a year. Even though they’re not ready.
by DJSkillz on Nov 25, 2008 12:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What teams are in that position?
The Pirates might be in that mold. But looking at the standings, there aren’t a lot of teams trying to build from scratch, as the Twins were in 1999. Plus, with Rainville’s and Waldrop’s injuries, I don’t see it. Both have ascended to the AA level, so they are not eligible for the minor league phase. But Fox could go in that phase, and, unlike the major league phase, there’s no sending him back if he can’t make AA.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 25, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
injuries
Cmath, is it really a big risk for a team to take a guy who might get injured? Can’t they then just ship him back? What do they have to lose?
You do make Ward sound attractive, Jesse — who wouldn’t want a ground ball machine with 81 K’s in 93 innings to come in with men on base? He does have a LOT of walks though — 51 in 93 innings, for a WHIP of 1.57. Let’s hope control issues keep the jackals at bay. But I have to say, it sounds like you could do a lot worse for a middle reliever, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him gone either.
I wish there was a limit on how many players one team could lose, but it seems like whoever has the best farm system just loses the most players, regardless of how poor the parent team is. Oh well.
by by jiminy on Nov 25, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, all of these teams could make sense....
Nats
Orioles
KC
Texas
Seattle
Pirates
Reds
Giants
Basically all the bottom-feeders.
by DJSkillz on Nov 25, 2008 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but
Many of those teams do not traditionally use the Rule 5. I can see the Nats, Orioles, Royals, Rangers, Pirates and Reds using it. But if there are 10 guys taken, nobody will get to the level of Rainville, Waldrop, and Fox.
And jiminy, I wasn’t referring to the possibility of an injury scaring teams away. Just that injuries have hampered them so much in their careers, they don’t have the track records that scream “Draft Me”. Waldrop didn’t pitch at all last year. Fox was mostly relegated to the bullpen and two years older than the median for his level. And Rainville was just awful—he could barely break glass with his fastball.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 25, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The odd of it mattering...
…whom the Twins lose in the Rule 5 draft are perilously close to zero.
by Johnny Safron on Nov 25, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Of course.
But it gives us something to talk about.
by Jesse on Nov 26, 2008 6:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not so sure....
Cameron, for instance, was a stud for San Diego.
by DJSkillz on Nov 25, 2008 8:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Name all great Twins' players...
…lost in the Rule 5 draft who made any kind of impact in a single year. Then over a 5-year span.
Sorry, I’ll have to remove the inevitable chip of Johan Santana, which someone will undoubtedly toss onto the table in an effort to fashion some meager case, despite the fact it was the Twins’ who picked him up. As well, George Bell is off limits. These players are rare in the Rule 5, and were not lost by the Twins. We are specifically talking great players the Twins lost to Rule 5.
Go ahead. List them.
by Johnny Safron on Nov 25, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shane Mack, Josh Hamilton..
But your point is well taken. Maybe one player a year makes any kind of difference. And one player a decade makes much of an impact. The rule is there to promote opportunities for players. If any of the Twins minor leaguers gets a job after being drafted, I’ll be happy for him. But losing any of them will not deplete the Twins system. And we might get somebody like Morlan when we draft, who could really make a difference.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 25, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
morlan isnt the same player he was when he was in the twins organization
he has lost some velo, also dan uggla was also a former big time find in the rule V draft a couple of years ago
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 26, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shane Mack and Josh Hamilton...
… were not LOST in the Rule 5 draft by the Twins.This was just the kind of path I was trying to eliminate by mentioning Bell and Santana.
The ultimate point is this: rare is it that a Rule 5 player goes onto a great career, and never has a player drafted from the Twins’ organization done so.
Talk of losing players in the Rule 5 draft is more frequent, but less amusing, then the talk of losing players to stock clubs when the leagues expand. But in both, the same pattern surfaces: My God, how could my beloved team leave THAT guy unprotected?
In the Twins’ case, the answer in both Rule 5 and expansion drafts has been: because he won’t have an impact. And with the exception of Bob Oliver, that answer has been a damned good one.
by Johnny Safron on Nov 25, 2008 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yes
The Twins have a good track record of protecting the right players. It’s a slow offseason that consumes us in hysterics over losing guys to the Rule 5.
Last year, four guys were drafted out of the Twins organization, which I think was a record. But only Casey Daigle stuck around for a whole year. And I doubt he would have had much of a role with the Twins even with our bullpen crisis.
Still, Drew Butera?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 25, 2008 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't understand your comment...
…about Casey Daigle? The Twins signed Casey (and Mrs. Daigle and son Ace came along in the package) last offseason as a minor league free agent. He pitched nearly the entire season out of the Rochester bullpen and if my memory is correct, the Twins released him either at the end of the season or just before. Unfortunately, that means Mrs. Daigle (Jenny Finch) will also not be around Frontier Field any more…although she did look great again with Team USA.
I also however, don’t understand the Drew Butera selection. It must have something to do with a big question mark surrounding Jose Morales and whether or not he will ever again be 100%. I expect if they need another spot for a free-agent signing or trade, that we will see Morales placed on waivers. Butera must also be something special behind the plate!
by roger13 on Nov 26, 2008 7:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My bad
I meant knuckle baller R.A. Dickey, whom the Twins signed at the same time as they signed Mr. Jenny Finch and then the Mariners drafted him as a Rule 5 guy.
I don’t think they’ll waive Morales. He’s third on the depth chart. And the Twins don’t hang guys out to dry when they work so hard to come back from injury. He’ll at least get a shot at Rochester and should end up on the bench for the Twins as a useful spare part in September.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 26, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just still hope...
that the Twins will come to view Morales as the future backup C again rather than Butera. We will see.
IF Ramos continues to develop that is going to be the real dilemna in a few years. What do you do with him/Mauer?
by DJSkillz on Nov 26, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't that be a wonderful problem...
…for the Twins to have to deal with. I for one believe that Ramos will develop into a solid major league catcher with a real chance of being above average.
CMath, I agree that Morales is important in the catching pecking order. My thoughts were based on the fact that since he played short-season rookie ball in 2002, he has had only two seasons where he hasn’t had an extended stay on the DL, 2007 and 2004. There also are probably a couple other guys that they would waive prior to Morales, if they need space for signings in the next few weeks.
by roger13 on Nov 27, 2008 8:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
>> It’s a slow offseason that consumes us in hysterics over losing guys to the Rule 5.
Of course, the “traditional” media get ripped for writing inane off-season chatter. But they have to fill some space every day.
by Johnny Safron on Nov 26, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying that it WILL happen....
just that I could easily see it.
It’s not really a big deal to me the Twins history in this regard, but the history of the draft as a whole. A number of guys have been taken in the Rule 5 and done quite well. Who’s to say it’s not a Twin or two this time around? That’s my point.
Not that I’m overly worried, but I’m a BIT worried. And I’d much rather have all the guys Jesse lists than Butera, who I view as garbage.
by DJSkillz on Nov 26, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ward and Winfree
Both of these guys could be in the Big Leagues this year. Ward had a superior first half at NB but wore down. He could be outstanding if not overused. Winfree is still young and has RH pop, which the Twins desperately need. It wouldn’t surprise me if he got a look (if not selected) by the end of this year.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Nov 25, 2008 11:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Winfree in the big leagues?
Winfree’s development was retarded by some personal distraction back in ‘04 or so. Despite that, he has spent two years at AA and last season just managed to walk a tad more and whiff a tad less. The level of plate discipline he’s established so far does not suggest he is ready for the major leagues.
If Winfree finds himself in the big leagues this year, he will find himself badly overmatched. I can’t imagine any team can afford to keep him on a big-league roster for a full year as a Rule 5 pick. You either have to be one helluva prospect or a hitter-in-waiting who can field a position or two and pinch run in order to occupy a spot on a big-league roster for a full season. Winfree does not fit the bill.
by Johnny Safron on Nov 26, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
power hitter will whiff alot and do not walk much
by no all on Nov 28, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Risht handed power hitters that whiff a lot, make little contact otherwise and can’t play defense don’t get jobs in the major leagues. Erik Lis is a bigger risk, but the presence of guys like Cliff Floyd make that unlikely.
THe RUle 5 draft is for two types of player: pitchers who could be capable relievers with untapped upside and position players who could be capable bench players because they’ve spent a lot of years at the high minors and have decent gloves and bats. Pure hitters rarely get drafted.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 28, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Best immediate outcome of Rule 5 draft in baseball history
1985 Toronto Blue Jays. Won their division with an AL best 99 wins.
Selected both Manny Lee and Lou Thornton in the Rule 5 before the season, and kept both on their roster all year.
Lee and Thornton combined to play in 120 games with – get this – 112 at-bats. They started a combined 21 games.
That’s right: The 1985 Jays won 99 games with, essentially, a 23-man roster, after drafting two players in Rule 5 – one of whom (Thornton) went on to never do a damned thing in the major leagues.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 2, 2008 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
That is not likely to happen again. Teams are more risk averse, especially in the age of 12 or 13-man bullpens.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 2, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course...
…in 1985, no one thought it would happen, either.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 2, 2008 11:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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