My Top 40
I didn't want to influence the voting too much, so I was waiting to release my top 40 list until the voting was done. For what it's worth, Seth has agreed to publish my list in his forthcoming 2009 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. So look for it there as well. What his list won't have that this list does is my reasoning in ranking each player where I did. WIthout further ado:
1. Aaron Hicks, OF (Best package of tools in the system)
2. Wilson Ramos, C (Catchers who hit like this are really rare)
3. Angel Morales, OF (Would be my top pick were it not for Ks)
4. Ben Revere, OF (Would be my top pick were it not for defense, especially arm)
5. Danny Valencia, 3B (Should be a solid third baseman in 2010)
6. Anthony Swarzak, RHP (#3 starter upside and close to the MLB)
7. Jose Mijares, LHP (Will be counted on as an upgrade to Reyes in 2009)
8. Tyler Robertson, LHP (Highest upside arm in the system; durability/mechanics questions)
9. Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF (Adam Dunn upside)
10. Carlos Gutierrez RHP (Should be a solid starter or reliever by 2010)
11. Shooter Hunt, RHP (#2 starter upside, control questions)
12. Luke Hughes, 3B/2B/OF/DH (One-year wonder? Needs a position)
13. Kevin Mulvey, RHP (Solid back of the rotation guy)
14. Philip Humber RHP (Higher upside than Mulvey, starter or reliever?)
15. DJ Romero 3B (Higher upside than Valencia, questions of attitude and work ethic)
16. Rene Tosoni OF (Would rate higher if not for injuries in 2008)
17. Jeff Manship, RHP (Can he continue to progress against tougher competition?)
18. Mike McCardell RHP (Very similar to Manship)
19. Steve Tolleson IF (Sleeper of the system: Could have an impact in 2009)
20. Brian Duensing LHP (Needs a bounce-back year, could surprise)
21. Anthony Slama RHP (My top reliever in the minors)
21(tie). Robert Delaney RHP (See Slama)
23. David Bromberg RHP (Bigger upside than McCardell but need more polishing)
24. Trevor Plouffe, IF (Time is running out, could be just a utility player in the majors)
25. Deolis Guerra, RHP (Needs to start living up to the hype, huge upside)
26. Evan Bigley OF (Great year in E-Town)
27. Jonathan Waltenbury 1B (The next Morneau?)
28. Daniel Osterbrock RHP (Eye-popping numbers in E-Town)
29. Nick Papasan IF (Another E-Town standout)
30. Brad Tippett RHP (Would rank higher if not for demotion last year)
31. Eric Lis 1B/DH (Good bat, no position)
32. Jason Pridie OF (Would rank higher if not for the Ks)
33. Dustin Martin OF (Just behind Pridie in every category except Ks)
34. Alex Burnett RHP (Really solid numbers for his age. Projects as a #4 starter)
35. Cole Devries RHP (Would rank higher if not for his age)
36. Rene Leverett 1B (Big bat, big butt)
37. Steve Singleton IF (Most underrated prospect in the system)
38. Danny Rams C (Gotta hope he starts hitting like his predraft hype)
39. Paul Kelly IF (If he's recovered from injuries, he's still the best SS prospect in the system)
40. Joe Benson OF (Tons of upside, time is running out)
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39 comments
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Comments
Great list CMath...
…Thanks. My only comments would be whether or not Rams belongs on any list as his year at ETon was about as disappointing as Ladendorf in the GCL. We used to get great college pitchers in the second round…now we have back to back question marks. Also, Papason was again injured most of the year which limited him to only 36 at bats in ETon. I know he was the talk of spring training, one of these years hopefully he and Kelly will both be healthy. The only player that a lot of other sources have been talking about who is not on your list is ETon pitcher Bobby Lanigan. Love the explanations, especially our big first baseman from St. Maarten!
by roger13 on Nov 5, 2008 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good points
After 35, I struggled to rank guys. Ladendorf was in there at one point. So was Dinkelman. So was Lanigan. I guess I went with Rams because 725 is not bad OPS for a 19-year-old catcher in rookie ball and I like the Twins’ track record on drafting catchers. Kelly is probably the biggest reach. It might be wishful thinking that he’s healthy considering that he was sent home before the end of the year. Maybe I should have done a top 50 list ;-).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 5, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Morales
I agree with your high ranking for Morales. This kid really reminds me of Alfonso Soriano.
by Piranah14 on Nov 5, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great list and thanks for the explanations...
I still have my doubts that Hicks should be #1 without playing a full season of proball. If what you say is true I expect him to move up quickly and provide the numbers to prove he is worth the ranking. I will wait until next year to see Tonkin on the list.
by Beerbear on Nov 5, 2008 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd have
Swarzak
Robertson
Morales
Two spots lower each.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 5, 2008 3:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
...
Hunt Upside
Gutierrez I like him as a starter he goes down for me is a RP obviously
Parmelee- Too bad he got injuryed he might be a top 5 guy if he hadn’t but I’m thinking he’s a 1b/DH longterm.
I don’t think Swarzak is going to be much above replacement level. Morales has too many huge red flags and Robertson is a RP long term.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 5, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swarzak
I had ranked him lower based on his FIP this past year, which actually went up after he was promoted despite his ERA going down three points. But I changed my mind after I read and heard several comments about him from a scouting perspective. Chief among them is the Voice of the Red Wings, who said on a Seth Podcast. In the interview, he says Rick Knapp was “very high” on Swarzak. And he himself has a very high opinion of Swarzak.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 5, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Rick Knapp
part is interesting but I disregard everything broadcasters say. You never know which one’s judge flyballs like Dick Bremer.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 5, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Aaron Gleeman
… has a very good/interestin article on the Twins minor league hitters. With adjusted stats is pretty much show Angel Morales the best season for a Twin minor league hitter.
by ahope on Nov 5, 2008 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gleeman
We’ve had our differences over the years. But I have to admit, my views are closer to his than they have ever been in my time as a Twins fan. Why? I’d like to think it’s because he’s become so much more sensible over the years. But the truth is, I think he’s taught me a lot and my views would not be what they are without his sometimes blunt wisdom. Thanks Aaron. Keep up the great work.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 5, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minor League Pitchers
I have a question for anyone here about our minor league pitchers. I can read the numbers, and I hear hype around here and SethSpeaks, but I have a lot of trouble finding actual descriptions of the pitchers traits, especially the ones below AAA.
So my question: Besides statistics, what in your mind (CMath or anyone), differentiates Robertson, Gutierrez, Hunt, Manship, McCardell and Guerra? What in your mind, makes Robertson the highest upside? Is it velocity, mean breaking stuff, etc?
I guess that, especially with pitchers, it isn’t as clear from age and statistics how a player will translate to the next level. Clearly scouts consider how good the individual pitches are, but it is very hard to find good descriptions.
by snolls on Nov 6, 2008 7:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stuff
It’s more of an art than a science, but I combine what I hear and read from people like Jim Rantz and Rick Knapp in interviews with what guys like John Manuel say and whatever second-hand scouting info I can get my hands on. This is not only radar gun info and such but whether scouts think I guy can add a foot or two with better mechanics etc. Then I fold in metrics analysis: K/BB/IP ratios, GB%, BABIP, and such—calibrated for league, age and team defense—which give you a sense of what kind of stuff a guy has.
When you get a sense of what kind of raw stuff a guy has, you compare it with his actual performance for his age and level and you get a sense of his upside (#1, #2, starter, reliever, etc.). The ranking is based on upside, ultimately. And it’s not a science. I make lists, shuffle the deck, fold in more and more info, reshuffle, and finally call it done. But it’s never really done. If I were to make this list today, I probably would move some guys around.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 6, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Robertson
What do you know about Robertson. What kind of velocity does he have, what are his pitches, and do you have any impression of how strong they are?
We have a number of dependable prospects. I guess I’m just curious who of our pitchers have #1 or #2 potential. It sounds like we probably don’t have any potential ace starters (other than Liriano). As for #2, It sounds like Robertson is a maybe, and Guerra is a myabe (more because he is a complete mystery). After that, it just seems like everyone else is a #3 upside.
by snolls on Nov 6, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Q&A
From a Q&A with Robertson in May (http://www.sethspeaks.net/051308.htm), sounds like he has four pitches, just working on adding them. I would think Robertson could be a 2 starter, throwns fairly hard, four pitches, decent control, good strikeout numbers. But the injuries are a concern. He’s a big kid though, he could/should continue to develop.
by SethSpeaks on Nov 7, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right now
He touches 94 but is inconsistent. Some games he barely breaks the 90 ceiling. So the speculation is he needs to smooth out his mechanics to consistently hit 94. He has a couple of good breaking balls and an emerging change. He’s a big raw-boned kid who is still filling out. The thought is, if he touches 94 with his herky-jerky delivery and developing body, he has ace upside if he can put it altogether.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 7, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've never heard of him hitting 94
mostly I’ve heard 86-90 maybe 92. I take the opposite approach that scouts do they say if you see them do it once they can do it again but I think that where a player sits for velocity for a game is far more important players lose velocity as much as they gain it.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 7, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've seen it a couple of times
Not live, mind you. And guns are not always reliable. But the Twins have a good track record of adding a foot or two to guys fastballs as they fill out and smooth out their mechanics. So, I’m hopeful. It’s perhaps a reach. But he’s the only left hander in the organization who has a chance to be an ace.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 7, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swarzack?
Why the love with him? His peripherals were no different from AA to AAA, yet he suddenly gets love? The man has forgotten how to strike people out. That’s a problem. I think he’s way to high. I’d also move tolleson way up on the list.
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 6, 2008 8:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ks
I think it’s the way these pitchers are coached in this organization: They’re coached to develop a sinker and keep the ball down. If you have the knack to strike guys out or get pop ups with the four seamer, but you don’t need to strike guys out to get them out, it’s the perfect combination. You only use that 95 MPH fastball when you need it, with guys on third and less than two outs, for example. This is basically what they did with Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. And I see it with a lot of pitchers who strike a lot of guys out in high A ball and strike fewer guys out as the climb the ladder. Sometimes it takes a year or two to make the transition, which Manship is in right now. But once they make that transition, they’re better pitchers for it.
Last year John Manuel said he didn’t like Swarzak all that much because he was much more of a thrower than a pitcher. But I’ve heard three or four reports that this year he really worked on his command this year and he now has good command of four pitches. Put a 95 four seamer and a 92 two seamer together with control of three secondary pitches, and you have #3 starter. I think he needs at least a half a year more AAA seasoning and a whole year wouldn’t hurt him at his age. But he could be a real option for the rotation in 2010, and not just a back-end guy. That’s why I rank him this highly.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 6, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tolleson
You’re probably right about that one. But I didn’t rank him as highly at the time because I had head things about his defense being less than everyday quality and I made the ranking before the AFL.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 6, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
If defense was a concern before the AFL, you’ve been proven right. I think he’s got 8 or 9 errors already.
by SethSpeaks on Nov 6, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff, CMath....
I can’t disagree with your list too much. I’d probably have Hughes a lot lower (I really see him as just a utility guy) and there’s a couple other disagreements here and there, but overall I really like your list.
I especially appreciate the fact that you have Ramos so high. I fully agree that C’s that put up his numbers are truly special. I think he’s one of the best prospects in all of baseball, personally.
by DJSkillz on Nov 6, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Plouffe
“Trevor Plouffe, IF (Time is running out, could be just a utility player in the majors)”
I’m not sure how you classify a 22 year old who spent half a season at AAA as someone time is running out on?
Basically I see a guy a few years younger than his competition showing good pop in the high majors, but since the Twins somehow didn’t see fit to let him repeat a lower level, it makes it hard to gauge whether the patience he showed a few years ago was lost or simply a skill that hasn’t caught up to the level of competition he’s been exposed to.
by steve johnson on Nov 6, 2008 8:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
WHY IS NOT WINFREE EVEN RANKED. HE FINISHED THE SEASON 2ND IN THE ORGANIZATION
IN HOME RUNS AND RBI’S. HE PLAYED A NEW POSITION AND ONLY HAD 2 ERRORS. HE WAS ONLY 22 IN AA. WINFREE AND PLOUFFE WERE THE YOUNGEST ON THE AA TEAM, SO HOW CAN THEY BE COMPARED TO TOLLESON, HUGHES, VILENCIA, PETERSON AND LIS.
by no all on Nov 6, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why shout?
Winfree has had one good half a season out of six in the minors. And he’s never fielded a position adequately, that includes first base. He’s barely a prospect. There are a lot of kids ahead of him who didn’t even make my top 40.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 6, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
By this time in a prospects career
they have normally shown something to say he could be a ML player if they are going to be one he hasn’t.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 6, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Scouting
First of all, his numbers have always been marginal. At some point, holding your own as someone young for your level is not enough. You have to have a good season. He’s had decent seasons, but not good enough. And I’ve heard that, aside from his arm, he’s a below average shortstop. That was confirmed when Cliburn hardly played him at all at short after he got up there. Defensively, he’s Brendan Harris. Offensively, he’s not even close to Harris. So, again, I’m skeptical. I hope he proves me wrong this year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 6, 2008 9:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, “time running out” sounds more like an epithet one would reserve for someone who has failed to display adequate skill against something closer to their own age level at least over a full season. I think it’s more accurate to just say that Plouffe projects as someone, somewhere in the wide chasm between a Luis Rivas and a JJ Hardy.
Also, do we trust Cliburn’s defensive placement as really all that indicative?
by steve johnson on Nov 6, 2008 10:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You can say that but
it has to lean 90% toward Rivas at this point.
JJ hardy put up a Higher OPS at age 20 in AA then Plouffe ever has and had a K:BB rate about 1:1.
Saying Plouffe has a high end of JJ hardy is like saying I could be president yeah it could happen but the chances are so small why mention it?
BTW JJ hardy is a bout the 4th best SS in the league. That’s pretty damn good.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 7, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RE: You can say that but
I said it to express what I see as a wide-open situation of possiblity for Plouffe. As it’s been pointed out, age relative to league by itself is not a great indicator as shown by the afforementioned Rivas. Yet, being always young for a league can mask a player’s real skill potential.
I like Plouffe more than others do because he has exibited good power, patience, and contact for someone two or three years younger than his competition, just not all at the same stop. To me that looks like a function of youth. I do agree with cmathewson’s latest clarification that this year will tell us a lot about Plouffe. As for the 90% Rivas possiblity, I will definately take the ‘over’ or less sucky side of that estimate.
by steve johnson on Nov 7, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps too strong
What I mean is, he needs to start dominating his level as he approaches the median age for that level, which needs to start happening this year. The claim that he’s young for his level only gets him so much slack. That slack is running out. The utility comment is pretty well established by BA and others and was corroborated by Cliburn last year, who used him as a utility/third base guy and used Santos Arias as the everyday shortstop after Plouffe was promoted.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 7, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HAVE YOU SEEN WINFREE PLAY? YOU SAY HE IS NOT A PROSPECT. HE WAS THE TWINS MINOR LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR IN 2005. HE FINISHED 2ND IN HR’S AND RBI’S IN THE MINOR LEAGUES. AS FOR A POSITION, HE WAS SWITCHED TO OUT FIELD AND PLAYED 130 GAMES WITH 2 ERRORS. WHAT DOES HE HAVE TO DO.
HOW MUCH BASEBALL HAVE YOU PLAYED TO BE JUDGING PLAYERS?
by no all on Nov 6, 2008 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Winfree
RBI totals are not important
Error totals and games played are by themselves a worthless way to evaluate defense
You no more need to have been a player to perform this type of analysis than you need to be a gourmet chef to authoritively tell others that the shrimp was bad.
by steve johnson on Nov 6, 2008 11:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
WHAT WINS BASEBALL GAMES? RBI’S. YOU SAID THAT HE DIDN’T HAVE A POSITION. IF THE TWINS
DID NOT THINK HE COULD PLAY A POSITION, HE WOULD NOT PLAY EVERYDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF GUYS ON THE BENCH AND FURTHER MORE EVERY PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE WORKS HARD AND ARE UNDER A GREAT AMOUNT OF STRESS. THEY WOULD NOT BE THERE IF SOMEONE
DID NOT BELIEVE IN THEM AND THEM IN THEMSELVES. IT IS THEIR DREAM.
by no all on Nov 7, 2008 8:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The ability to generate runs and prevent them is what wins games. RBIs are not very good at explaining true contribution as it explains nothing about opportunity, for one.
Using RBIs as a statistic to evaluate skill can be equated to stating that Orlando Cabrerra is as good as hitter as Albert Pujols just because he got nearly as many hits this past season.
by steve johnson on Nov 7, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoa!
……getting a bit cold outside. After leading the organization with 101 rbi when Winfree was the Player of the Year in 2005 where he hit .294, he was unable to maintain that level of play as he moved up a level in 2006 and 2007. This season Winfree was very good at everything except his batting average….which did come up somewhat at the end of the year to .252/.319/.450. Winfree has consistantly been one of the top home run and rbi guys in the organization, again this year with 19 home runs and 87 rbi.
As one of the youngest players in New Britain, Winfree still may have a future role with the Twins. I suspect the disappointment many have with him dates back to his lack of follow through to his big 2005, in part due to his declining an assignment to the AFL, leaving the team for personal reasons, etc! But David is still very young and maybe beginning to mature as both a player and young man. I for one remain hopeful that the David Winfree of 2005 will return in 2009 at Rochester.
by roger13 on Nov 7, 2008 7:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Winfree
I’m still quite high on Winfree…
I agree that RBI are incredibly overrated, but at the same time, someone has to drive in runs, so it can’t just be completely ignored. He did cut down his strikeouts a little bit this year. The average isn’t there, and I’d like to see more walks, but he does have very good power, 2nd in the organization in HR this year. I’m not saying he’s top 10 or even top 20, but he is very young yet and will still be young for New Britain next year. I definitely wouldn’t give up on him.
by SethSpeaks on Nov 7, 2008 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm hopeful
I just don’t rank him that well right now, mostly because of defense. If he was still a 3B, I would have him in my top 30. As a lumbering right fielder, not so much. When you compare his numbers to Cuddyers’, for example, it’s by no means clear that his offense will be able to carry him past his defensive liabilities in the majors. So he’s a right-handed platoon DH. As such, I rate him below Erik Lis. I thought about putting him in the Lereret slot, but Rene has better contact skills, so I chose him instead.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 7, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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