On the Beat

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has this to say in regards to the Twins: "The Twins have interest in the Padres' Kevin Kouzmanoff to fill their hole at third base, and are reportedly willing to trade left fielder Delmon Young for him."

While Perrotto doesn't mention where he got the information, it's an intriguing statement. Kouzmanoff, 26, hit .260/.299/.433 with 23 homers in 154 games for the Padres.

about 1 year ago Jesse 37 comments 0 recs |

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New Rule

Let’s only post rumors that don’t make me want to vomit. Ok? Great.

by TMW on Nov 7, 2008 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I know.

I’m seriously anti-this trade rumor.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll start

Here

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/06/no-headline—-2008-11-06-191004424758/

by TMW on Nov 7, 2008 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ringolsby likes to talk about Cuddyer a lot.

Had a link to another one yesterday. Maybe they think if they beat it to death it’ll happen?

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adkins for Cuddy... and a pitcher.

The Kouzy trade looks better.

by Beerbear on Nov 7, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Neither of them look good to me.

If it was Cuddles for Atkins straight up, I’d do it. We have enough outfielders to take a chance on a third baseman, and hope that he hits better in his new home as a Twin than he hit on the road as a Rockie.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would toss in Blackburn too.

by TMW on Nov 7, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be upset by this trade.

We have several talented OF’s coming up in the system to replace Young. Kouzy could certainly fill the gaping hole in our infield. The added 20 or so homeruns would be very welcome in an offense that at times has trouble scoring runs. I say go for it.

by Beerbear on Nov 7, 2008 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kouz's OBP was .299 this season.

23 homers aren’t worth that to me. His OPS+ was just 99, he strikes out a lot, and he swung at a LOT of pitches outside the strike zone. He got worse this last year. I’d rather put another year of development into Young than make this deal.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget the SLG

.433 does not justify that Gomezian OBP.

by TMW on Nov 7, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you see how Kouzmanoff makes an out just over 70% of the time?

Yeah, me too. No thanks. Not in a lineup showing patience for Gomez’s development.

by TMW on Nov 7, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I could say this...

I really don’t get when these guys write this stuff and don’t at least say that they heard it from a source.

Obviously the Twins are going to have interest in the key third base targets (Atkins, Kouz and Beltre).

I say we do something like Cuddyer and Mulvey for Atkins. He’s young and the outfield seems to be set.

by Twins Territory on Nov 7, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That I could do

I wouldn’t even give up Blackbun straight up fo Atkins. I think his away splits are probably representative of what we will get out of him. Trading a cheap, reliable pitcher for a (likely) over-rated 3B who is already into his arbitration years doesn’t make sense.

However, I see trading away Cuddyer as a good idea, if he has any value on the market. I like him a lot, but Cuddyer is one of our most expensive players, and 2006 type stats would be what it takes to justify that salary on a team with 4 cheaper outfield options.

by snolls on Nov 9, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be really eager for this deal

but note that he got killed by his home park. His career road OPS is .818. It’s not at all clear to me that he isn’t a better hitter than Young, at a more difficult position of need. As for the complaint about his .433 slugging..um, that’s higher than Delmon’s by a significant margin.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 7, 2008 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

SLG difference

is 28 points…meh. It’s significant, but not significant enough to overcome Delmon’s raw talent as a hitter, and Delmon is four years younger. The power is a wash to me.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isolated Power

Note, too, that the .433 SLG was on top of a lousy .260 batting average – a .173 ISO would’ve ranked third on the Twins (fourth if you count Craig Monroe), after Morneau and Kubel. Delmon had a whopping .115 ISO – Kouzmanoff was quite a bit more likely to have an extra base hit than Delmon.

I agree that the plate discipline is a problem – like Delmon, he has to hit around .300 to have a passable OBP, and while he came pretty close to that on the road this year (and over his career so far), I don’t know whether I’d want to bank on it.

I don’t think he’s any worse an option than Atkins, although I’m not convinced either of them are worth Cuddyer or Young.

How’s Kouzmanoff’s defense?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Nov 7, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kouz's D

11 errors in 1379 innings; .705 RZR, 42 outs made outside of his zone

By comparison:
Atkins: 9 errors, 797 innings, .699 RZR, 27 OOZ
Beltre: 15 errors, 1208 innings, .700 RZR, 78 OOZ
Crede: 20 errors, 834 innings, .729 RZR, 39 OOZ
Blake: 14 errors, 1104 innings, .701 RZR, 27 OOZ
Gordon: 16 errors, 1180 innings, .692 RZR, 23 OOZ
Wright: 16 errors, 1433 innings, .714 RZR, 56 OOZ
Rodriguez: 10 errors, 1126 innings, .703 RZR, 57 OOZ
Ramirez: 18 errors, 1282 innings, .659 RZR, 51 OOZ

Kouz plays some pretty good D. But his offensive skills this season were a little Batista-esque, which puts a dark cloud over it. There are a lot of 3B options in trade this off-season, and I have to say that Beltre is still my favorite.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Let’s make a park adjustment for 23 walks in 647 PA. Wait no, that’s way worse plate disclipline than Delmon Young.

Did I mention I hate this?

by TMW on Nov 7, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If nobody

like Kouzmanoff or Atkins, what do you propose we do, sign another Batista? How about another Lamb?

There are only so many options out there that make sense for the club. Beltre would be nice, but he’s old, has one year on his deal and would no re-sign.

by Twins Territory on Nov 7, 2008 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What would I propose we do?

If there’s not a good deal, it’s simple: don’t make one. Get by on one more year of a mix-n-match between Buscher/Harris/Macri/Tolbert/Whoever, and hopefully by 2010 someone inside the system is ready to step up.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

…Beltre will only be 30 next year. That’s not old for a corner infielder.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

he’s not really old, but I see no possible way he’d stay in Minnesota. Boras will demand some crazy contract and he’d walk.

I know there are some questions with both Kouzmanoff and Atkins, but Cuddyer doesn’t provide that much, and it’s worth a shot. I’d rather see any of these guys over Buscher starting.

by Twins Territory on Nov 7, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I say

Cuddyer doesn’t offer much because we’re probably better off with Span, Gomez and Young.

by Twins Territory on Nov 7, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we're shopping Slowey already...

…then why not Slowey for Mark Teahen?

by dwintheiser on Nov 7, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't

want to trade any of the five pitchers. An outfielder, okay. We have an abundance.

by Twins Territory on Nov 7, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look, if I could get Atkins for Cuddyer +

I’d do that before I did Young for Kouzmanoff, but I’d strongly consider either deal. The left side of the infield needs more talent then it has.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 7, 2008 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Atkins and Cuddyer, ok.

But I don’t want Kouz, and I don’t want to deal Delmon.

That’s just me.

by Jesse on Nov 7, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll agree with that...

…no Delmon.

I don’t mind trading Cuddyer for some reason, but no Span, Young or Gomez. I’d rather go with Blake than trade one of those. I see no reason why we couldn’t bring in one of the options for Cuddyer and maybe a lower-level pitcher.

by Twins Territory on Nov 7, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually like Kouzmanoff more than Atkins, considering park....

And I’d be okay with giving up Delmon if we could get a small upgrade elsewhere in the deal.

Kouzmanoff is cheaper than Atkins, he’s under control for longer, and he’s better defensively. And I think Kouzmanoff could reasonably put up an .800 OPS or so for the Twins. That’d be okay with me.

Now, I prefer Beltre still, but I’d be okay with either of these swaps on their face.

Here’s another thought; What about dealing Denard Span in a deal instead? His value is at its highest of the OF’s relative to ceiling in my view, and I think there’s possibly a real problem with the fact that having both Span and Gomez leads us to a lack of power at 2 more positions when we already know we’re not going to get any from 2b, and we haven’t seen it yet from C. I don’t like the fact that with Span we have 4 positions locked into a lack of power, at least for now. I love the guy now, but a big part of me wants to roll the dice and hang onto a Young/Gomez/Cuddyer OF, trading Span for power at 3b.

by DJSkillz on Nov 7, 2008 8:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This actually makes a lot of sense.

I like the idea of trading Span right now as well. Only if we can get a legitimate lead off guy either through trade or free agency to replace him in the batting order. Span would have to bring quite a bit though and I’m not sure how other teams value him. Of all of our position players Span in my mind is the most likely to regress next year so he is at his highest value following that logic. I just don ‘t like us without a good leadoff guy like Furcal possibly? I’m not sure who else is out there that would be worth the money.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Nov 7, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i dont want to trade denard span

i have been a twins fan who was really down on span until last year and i think that he turned the corner last year and i would be happy with delmon for kouz, as long as cuddy stays healthy

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Nov 8, 2008 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Mauer, career SLG: .457
Delmon Young, career SLG: .413

Your complaining about “lack of power” is pointed at the wrong position.

by DK on Nov 8, 2008 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's true...

Thanks for a reminder of that. Delmon had a very bad year power-wise this year. And hey, I’m Mauer’s biggest fan, so it wasn’t meant as a knock. I’ve argued pretty vehemently that Mauer is the MVP of the AL this year.

by DJSkillz on Nov 9, 2008 3:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Power

Young definitely had a bad year power wise, but lets be careful when we use SLG as our power statistic. Slugging measures Total Bases / At Bats. This means it would be possible to post a 1.000 slugging without ever getting an extra base hit.

ISO is a better stat, and is equal to SLG – BA. This represents the average number of extra bases per at bat. Thus a single or out is worth 0, a double is worth 1, triple 2, homerum 3.

Youngs career ISO: .131
Mauer: .140

Young still hasn’t shown any of the power he is projected to attain, but his power is roughly the same as Mauer’s. Mauer has a high slugging percentage, because he makes very outs.

This post wasn’t really a disagreement with yout point, just a comments on your support.

by snolls on Nov 9, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a possibility....

trade Span (not Delmon or Cuddyer) for a good 3b. Kouz or Beltre would both qualify in my mind. Then sign Furcal.

Furcal-SS
Casilla-2b
Mauer-C
Morneau-1b
Beltre/Kouz-3b
Kubel-DH
Young/Cuddyer-LF/RF
Cuddyer/Young-RF/LF
Gomez-CF
Bench; Harris, Tolbert, Buscher, Pridie, Redmond

Liriano, Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins
Pen: Nathan, Neshek, Mijares, Boof, Crain, Breslow, Guerrier, Humber

2 guys in the pen there for trade bait. I’ve been thinking about something like a Betemit/Guerrier swap for the bench. That could be one solution.

by DJSkillz on Nov 8, 2008 1:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yup

I like Furcal as an option at short. The Twins have the money. Not sure I love trading Span for Beltre, only because Beltre is under K for only one season, but I’m not against trading Span. His value will never be higher, and he isn’t a great defensive player.

One thing that we have to keep in mind is that Gomez is SO good defensively that it makes it difficult not to play him every day. Especially with Young flanking him (and Cuddyer, whose range isn’t great shakes either). One of the reasons, though, that I’m open to trading Young is that he really is terrible defensively.

The best defensive alignment is Gomez with Span and Cuddyer. The best offensive alignment is benching Gomez, but the defensive fall off is just so massive doing that.

Of course, it’s impossible to know how these guys are valued around the league.

by Eric in Madison on Nov 8, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kouzmanoff

Just to play devil’s advocate, Kouzmanoff does have a size able home/road split from playing in that tough park in San Diego.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Nov 10, 2008 2:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs