Lets talk 3B
After last winter's Santana trade talk, I am realizing that my baseball withdrawal will be more severe this winter than usual. So, in order to get some hot stove chatter going, I thought I'd bring up potential 3B players for next year. I know that we've talked about this before, but it is a conversation that will continue to dominate any Twins talk this winter, and I think I can add a couple of names to the discussion.
First, there are the players that we are all hearing about available for trade:
Beltre: Good defender, great power, not the greatest OBP, expensive, only a only a one year deal.
Kouzmanoff: Out machine, good power, decent defense, under team control for a couple more years (3 I think, maybe four). Good splits away from S.D.
Atkins: Being supplanted by a prospect. Good hitter all around, average defense, in arbitration, scary splits away from Denver.
We have talked about those guys a good amount. The question really seems to come down to how much Beltre would cost in trade, whether Atkins is a product of lower atmospheric pressure, and whether Kouzmanoff is a product of a gigantic S.D. park. Since I don't know the answers to any of these, I'm not going to add anything else.
Then there are some free agent options:
Crede: Decent bat, back injury issues, good defense. Should be cheap and available for a short contract.
Blake: Good power, makes a lot of outs. Will want 3 years, and a respectable salary, 35 yrs old, Type B FA. I'm actually unsure about his defense (I really have no idea). I've seen some good plays, but that doesn't mean much, and defense definitely declines with age.
We've also discussed these in the past, and it comes down to how much to spend, and how much to expect based on age/injury. I'm not fond of either of these guys, but if you disagree, then convince me. I'm all ears.
There are some internal options:
Harris: Average bat, some (minimal) power. Nothing special on defense, but doesn't seem as much of a liability at 3B as at 2B.
Buscher: Solid bat, some power, not much defense, lefthanded.
Tolbert: Good defense, no power. Maybe some on-base skills, definitely fast.
Hughes/Valencia: Young, questionable defense.
Cuddyer: Didn't like 3B a couple of years ago.
Basically, these are the develop from within options. I see a Harris/Buscher/Tolbert platoon as likely, and hard to object to, if other options are too expensive. These are guys that you want on your roster. If they are there, Tolbert gives you a good glove option at many positions, Harris and Buscher give you flexibility off the bench around the infield while having decent bats. The question is whether you can get enough offense out of this group for 600 plate appearances at 3B. Cuddyer is a great option, unless his hitting is likely to suffer from the difficulties in adjusting to 3B. This was the argument for his breakout in 2006.
There are a couple of people that we haven't really discussed much that I think are worth a look:
Shea Hillenbrand: Good power, some clubhouse problems. Should be very cheap. Free agent.
Aubrey Huff: 32 yrs old, lots of power. At 1B now, but used to play 3B. I don't know anything about his defense. He is under contract for $8m (Orioles) in 2009, then is a FA. Lefthanded.
Brandon Wood: Top angels prospect. Big Bat (minor league ISO of .255), plays 3B and SS, played poorly in first taste of majors.
Andy LaRoche: Pittsburgh Pirates prospect, acquired in Manny 3-way trade this fall. ML service = .56. Some power, good OBP in minors.
I think that Hillenbrand is a really good FA option. He gets a contract, he comes in to play every day, and if it doesn't work out, he gets cut and we fall back on internal options. The team may be afraid to try another in the vein of Bautista/Lamb, but if they go the cheap FA route, Hillenbrand is the best bet, I think. Good bat, from 2002 until a mid year 2006 trade. He was basicall a .300/.340/.450 hitter, from the right side of the plate. Huff I suggest because he is such a big bat, and you have to assume that the Orioles would be open to trading anyone for prospects. The fact that he is left-handed, and has stark RHP/LHP splits means that he probably isn't a good candiate. I present Brandon Wood and Andy LaRoche as the path that I would really like the Twins to take. While Delmon Young hasn't yet been the player we hoped for, I really liked the idea of that trade. What the Twins need is a young, cheapgood bat at 3B. We are hoping that one of our prospects will be ready in another year or two, but why not just trade for exactly that? Go around the league, and ask teams what it would take to swap top prospects. This all comes down to costs, but I imagine Brandon Wood being available for something like Slowey and Hughes, or Blackburn and Revere. Maybe that is too much to pay, and maybe I'm mis-judging the cost, but that's the question.
Ignoring cost ($ and players), my wish list is as follows: Wood, LaRoche, Beltre, Hillenbrand, Kouzmanoff, internal options. What do other people think? I know that you can't ignore cost, so I'm also curious what people think might be feasible.
For instance, would you trade Slowey straight up for Wood? Would you trade Someone like Hicks, Angel Morales, Valencia, etc with a good pitching prospect for any 3B prospects (Wood, LaRoche, Ian Stewart etc.).
What other players should be added to this list? What players' characterizations do you disagree with (especially defense)?
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31 comments
Comments
Casey Blake's Defense
is quite shaky. I’ve read that “he isn’t a gold-glover, but he isn’t terrible.”
He would definitely be a step down from Punto, but Blake could possibly be on the same level defensive-wise as Buscher.
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by Andersklasen on Nov 9, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Thing that Makes Blake Better than Punto and Buscher
and To Me is why we should make an attempt to get him is, he can hit for power, this team does need a power hitting 3rd baseman.
by Tony_O on Nov 10, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Beltre would be too expensive for the Twins.
Blake would be okay for a year or two until and internal replacement matured. Atkins and Kouzy would be about the same except younger. If Valencia’s upside is what we think it is he would be ready by 2011 and would give us a better 3B than any mentioned above. I would go with the trade of Young for Kouzy and maybe a mid level minor leaguer. Adkins is not worth Cuddles AND a young starting pitcher. Hildebrand, I don’t think is good fit with the clubhouse and or Gardy.
I guess I would prefer to stay with Harris and maybe Hughes. Or, move Casilla to 3B and bring up Tolleson to 2B. I don’t want the Twins to lay out a ton of money for player who may only spend a year here. IMHO….
by Beerbear on Nov 10, 2008 12:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Beltre....
Is the best option to me, depending on cost. Yes, his contract is $12 M, but the Twins are well under budget, by about $35 M this year actually (vs. their limit), and we’re acquiring Beltre in a contract year, which is valuable. Plus, he’s a virtual lock to be a Type A FA next year so we would gain 2 top-40 draft picks for him. That’s a good haul to me. And hopefully Valencia will be ready by 2010.
I like the Laroche thought a lot, but no way would I give up Delmon for him. Laroche’s value is not that high.
Hate Wood. I’ve said for years that he’s basically Dallas McPherson II, and I stand by that. I don’t think he’ll ever amount to anything personally. Strikes out way too much.
I don’t want to go internal this year. We need to step it up a notch, and acquiring a 3b also really improves the bench (Buscher/Harris are both good off the bench). Beltre’s my top choice, but I’m okay with either of Kouz or Atkins (depending on cost) and I’m also okay with Blake or Crede as more of a last resort. I don’t think we could count on Hillenbrand at all, and Huff’s defense is atrocious.
by DJSkillz on Nov 10, 2008 1:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
LaRoche
I’m surprised that you wouldn’t trade Young for LaRoche. LaRoche plays at a more valuable position, a position that the Twins actually have need, and has less service time, despite showing the same power thus far as Young, and better on-base skills. I like both, but it just seems that the trade would aid the twins tremendously, because of their other OF options.
With Wood, striking out is ok, as long as he produces power, and gets on-base when he isn’t striking out. But hey, I’m not expert, I’m just going based on prospect lists. It just seems that prospect swaps are the highest upside option. If we could give up Cuddyer and Mulvey for a 3B (even Atkins, who I don’t want), it seems worth it. If we are getting a top prospect, than we can talk about giving up a better pitcher, and one of our 3B prospects (Valencia/Hughes). This is how we can give up the best player package, without hurting our team too much. Perkins and Valencia, for instance, is probably a package with high value to a lot of other teams, but it doesn’t cost us too much, as we have other pitching options, and we would be upgrading our 3B option.
In response to Beerbear’s post, I agree that Beltre is expensive, but it is only a one year contract (no long term risk), and if we could trade Cuddyer, then Beltre is only a $5 million increase. I’m not saying the M’s would take Cuddyer, but if another team would give us prospects for him, than then we could balance out our salary.
by snolls on Nov 10, 2008 8:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not that I don't like Laroche...
I do. I just think that Young has more value than him in a trade, so I bet we’d get something back along with Laroche if we dealt Young.
And I do think the Pirates will be looking to flip Laroche, as Alvarez should rise very quickly through the system, and I do see them keeping him at 3b.
by DJSkillz on Nov 10, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As for Wood....
McPherson was a “top” prospect too. I’m just saying that I don’t like either of them. I think the Angels’ hitting prospects tend to be highly overrated, both because of their AAA park, and because of the organizational philosophy for hitters (ie hackers).
by DJSkillz on Nov 10, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Young for LaRoche
I would trade Young for LaRoche. But I doubt the Dodgers would. They have a super abundance of outfielders and a shortage of infielders, with Garciaparra and Furcal free agents not expected to return.
Beltre is the best fit, IMO. The Twins have more payroll flexibility in 2009 than 2010. And they have a one-year gap in right-handed third base power in the system. As a one-year rental, he can really make an impact. If the Twins give up a couple of good prospects for him, they can get repaid for those guys at the end of the year in draft picks. But I don’t know if Seattle wants more than two good prospects (say, Perkins and Plouffe). They probably want Young or Cuddyer in addition to Perkins. That’s a steep price for one-year rental.
Atkins would be a good fit. But I wouldn’t trade more than Cuddyer straight up for him. Offensively, they’re the same guy. So you’re just trading a right fielder for a third baseman.
I hope they stay as far away from Kouzmanoff as they can.
Blake is probably going to be overpriced for the Twins, not necessarily in dollars but years. If he is expecting a three-year deal, the Twins should say “no thanks.” If he’d take a one-year deal with an option, that would fit perfectly. It all depends on how much Blake wants to come here.
Crede’s back is my main concern there. On the turf, guys with back problems don’t get better. Maybe if they could platoon him, they can give him enough rest. But his price tag is likely to be higher than a platoon player dictates.
I wouldn’t be broken up if they just let it ride at third with Harris and Buscher. What they really need is an upgrade at shortstop. I like Atlanta’s Escobar and Milwaukee’s Hardy. But those deals won’t be done until the Peavy situation is settled.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 8:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see them address both positions
One via trade, and one via free agency. They have the available budget to do this.
My first choices I think would be Beltre and Furcal (FA). This is a huge upgrade, obviously, and affordable, especially with Beltre being only a 1 year commitment. I like this because Beltre presumably would cost you some talent but not an outrageous amount. Hey, I’d love to get JJ Hardy too, but realistically, that’s going to cost you something from your core. You aren’t getting him for Nick Blackburn.
I really think Blake is not a good choice given his age, his K demands, and his defense. I wouldn’t be averse to either Atkins or Kouzmanoff either, depending on how things play out. There aren’t FA 3B that I like; I’d rather make a trade at that position.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 10, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers wouldn’t, but would the Pirates, (since that’s where LaRoche is)?
by DADDYCAT on Nov 10, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oops
Perhaps. Gosh, I forgot that the Dodgers traded him. Doh! I think the Pirates would trade him or Freddy Sanchez for Delmon. We’ll see. They might want to keep the brothers LaRoche together.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blake's Ks
I think Ks come with the territory for a guy who has seen more pitches than any other player in the majors over the last five years. He’s just very patient. He does make a lot of outs, but he’s a tough out. He makes the pitcher work and allows the team to get into the opposing bullpen sooner because of pitch counts. A guy like that can be valuable, especially if we plan on keeping guys like Delmon (First Pitch) Young.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
LaRoche again
Reviewing his stats, I don’t think a Delmon for LaRoche trade is quite even. I’d say Pittsburgh would need to throw in a reliever as well.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yep...
at a minimum I think.
Neither has proven anything, and Young is cheaper, plus he’s always been the more highly regarded prospect. There’s a reason that Young was the #1 overall pick.
by DJSkillz on Nov 10, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is young cheaper
?? They are both ML min guys I think LaRoche even has less Service time.
1941 .406
by FrozenTed9 on Nov 12, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and....
I too think we need to address both positions this offseason. We have the pieces to do it IMO. We have excess pitchers (Mulvey/Humber/Swarzak/Manship/Duensing/Perkins/Blackburn (you can trade any combo of 3 of those players, as long as 2 of them aren’t Perkins/Blackburn) and we have excess OF’s in Cuddyer/Young/Span.
So one of those OF’s and 3 of those pitchers should be able to get you a good SS and a good 3b IMO. If we solve those 2 positions and Liriano bounces back strong, I think we’re a World Series team.
by DJSkillz on Nov 10, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Alrighty
Hillenbrand is a club house cancer…..no way he comes here.
I like these options the best.
Kouzmanoff… He had over an .800ops away from Petco park. is under team control for years and cheap. likely to hit 25 HRs a year for us.
Beltre… for the one year thing. he’s the best no duobt about it, but I prefer kouzmanoff based on longtermability (a new word)
Blake/ Atkins could go wither way. I prefer Blake as he doesn’t cost any talent and is practically a local boy.
Crede…because of injury history is only worth signing to a base + incentives contract cause we have internal replacements for him when he gets hurt, and he probably will, or a platoon situation could make sence with him….
Beyond that I don’t see much of an upgrade out there that is available for trades.
by doofus on Nov 10, 2008 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hardy
I’d go after Hardy hard. Perkins, Bonser, and Revere would be a good place to start (I think).
Then, I’d go sign Crede to a 1 year, incentive laden deal, since he has indicated he would sign something like that. It’s probably all he’d get anyways.
by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 10, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good plan
Hardy is the guy I want too. And Crede has a chance to be great (he was the Sox MVP when healthy). If he gets hurt, we don’t pay him and Harris and Buscher (and possibly Hughes) are available to pick up the slack. If he stays healthy, he’s a bargain.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would be a rather hefty price for JJ Hardy
by Tony_O on Nov 10, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We're not gonna get him on the cheap
Hardy’s a great player and we’ll have to pony up some players. I think if Slowy/Baker/Liriano are untouchable we have to figure it would be one of Blackburn/Perkins and one top flight young prospect like a Revere. I’m ok with giving up Revere because he might be able to hit like crazy but we have an abundance of young outfielders the way it is, his value is really high right now and from what I hear his defense is mediocre.
I do wish that Hardy was under control for a bit longer but I’d still give up a decent chunk for two years of him and then if he can continue like he has he’d likely be a type A free agent as well.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Nov 10, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree....
Good thought. Hardy would be my ideal scenario too. And his defense is great at SS as well. He’d immediately be the GG winner in the AL right now.
Put him and Crede on this team and we’re a WS contender IMO.
by DJSkillz on Nov 10, 2008 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why all the Crede love?
Is Crede really that good a fielder? Offensively, I don’t see what he gets the Twins over a Harris/Buscher platoon besides 10 homers (maybe), a bunch of outs, and a back brace. Seriously, a .306 career OBP, in that hitter’s park? I know, he hits the ball over the fence, and the Twins could use a bopper, but I’d rather have a bopper that wasn’t watching from the dugout after most of his other at-bats. Also, Twins fans especially should be skeptical of third basemen with back problems.
I am in favor of the Hardy proposal.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Nov 10, 2008 5:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I've always liked his glove
But the stats are mixed. So who knows? He’s an upgrade over either Buscher or Harris in the field, but he’s a cut below Beltre. He’s the best fielding free agent third baseman, that’s for sure.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with Hardy
is the amount of talent he would cost. I seriously doubt he could be had without one of the Twins’ top 3 pitchers in the deal. If he could be had for the proposal above—Perkins, Bonser, and Revere, I’d do it in a heart beat.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 10, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Shortstop is not an area of organizational depth
So I would be fine with giving up enough talent to get a long-term solution. I don’t really see a shortstop of the future in the system right now. On the other hand, we have some depth at third, so a stopgap is what we need there.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is why I like a Beltre and Furcal combo
Beltre for a year while we see what happens with Hughes and Valencia, and Furcal for 2-3 years. I’m willing to give up talent too—the question is always how much? When you start talking about one of the top 3 pitchers plus more to get Hardy, I start getting queasy.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 10, 2008 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal's price tag
He might be out of our league financially. But if he’s willing to sign a medium-level contract, I wouldn’t mind. I’d still rather have a younger guy with more power. But he’s not a bad option.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Nov 10, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it's not clear to me what Furcal is going to cost
his injury this year was ill timed, but he still might land a bigger deal than I would be willing to pay.
by Eric in Madison on Nov 10, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ive heard that he wants 10 million a season
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Nov 16, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I would do..
I think we should address both 3B and SS, one being a trade and the other being a free agent pick-up.
If the Twins decide to trade for a SS, I think Hardy is the best option. If they instead seek a free agent I would go with Orlando Cabrera.
I think Hardy would have a great year hitting in front of Mauer.
While Cabrera isn’t the same hitter as a guy like Furcal, he is an excellent defender and is way cheaper than Furcal whom is rumored to be seeking a long-term deal. I think he would bat either 1st or 2nd along with Span.
If the Twins decide to trade for a 3B, I think Atkins is the best option. If they instead seek a free agent, I like Crede.
Atkins would be a large improvement on what we’ve had in recent years at 3B, he could bat 5th, in between Morneau and Kubel/Cuddyer.
Crede is a good defender and has some power to add to the lineup. He too would likely bat 5th. Note, his stock is down because of his last two seasons which have been injury riddled. I think he should be back to his 2006/2005 form in ‘09 if he stays healthy, and if he doesn’t, we’ve still got some decent guys to fill in for him.
by Piranah14 on Nov 12, 2008 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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