Minnesota Twins Winter Meetings Open Thread, Thursday
4:32 pm - Silence abounds for the Twins. It's looking like this will be another year where the Winter Meetings yield nothing for Minnesota definitively, but there's a lot of off-season left. Even if nothing gets done tonight, there's no doubt that the Twins have done a lot of leg work the last few days, and they're clearly trying to make something happen.
I'm calling it for tonight, at least here from the UK--continue to add your own updates as you hear them and keep the conversation going. I'll leave you with my Top 5 Third Basemen Wish List, with names populated solely by either A) names we've heard bantered the last few days, or B) free agents. Think of it as the Twins-related Christmas list that I've sent to Santa.
1 - Adrian Beltre, Seattle
2 - Ty Wigginton, Houston
3 - Garrett Atkins, Colorado
4 - Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego
5 - Brian Buscher (and others), Minnesota
They all rank higher than Joe Crede, and they all definitely rank higher than Miguel Tejada. Also...looks like I prefer a trade to any of the free agents still available. Go figure.
2:33 pm - Additional information from Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in regards to Adrian Beltre, the no-trade clause, and the Twins:
When [the Twins] attempted to investigate a possible deal, they discovered that -- since the last time they'd looked into Beltre during the season -- he'd added the Twins to a list of teams on his limited no-trade clause.
While Beltre is clearly not the only option for upgrading third base, he still is the best option available via trade. Or anywhere else for that matter. Unless this no-trade option has a ludicrous financial payout, it shouldn't be considered a massive obstacle in a potential deal.
1:59 pm - LEN III just checked in with an Adrian Beltre update. It appears that, yes, the Twins ARE on Beltre's no-trade list...meaning the Twins would need to buy out that option if they want him that bad. No word on what sort of numbers we'd be dealing with there.
Was this something done fairly recently? Neal asks the same question, and it's a good one. If so...well...Scott Boras, you bastard.
1:11 pm - Just a few things we missed over the course of the morning. Nothing serious, but I always like to keep a wide view of the situation.
- LEN III thinks that Adrian Beltre might have the Twins on his "no-trade" list. That'll cause some problems, and might be why we haven't heard more about him over the last four days.
- In a potential deal for Mark DeRosa, which would not just be a Twins-Cubs transaction, Neal also believes the Twins wouldn't part with Jason Kubel (Chicago is apparently looking for a left-handed hitting outfielder) or Kevin Slowey (who the Cubs wanted to draft, apparently...there's a story, follow the link to Neal's blog).
- Interest in Kevin Kouzmanoff and Ty Wigginton has faded into the background for the time being.
12:48 pm - Not much going on today, but here's the big news. Courtesy of Joe C., the Twins have re-signed Nick Punto. Sounds like it's a two-year deal worth $8.5 million dollars, with an option for 2011. Call me crazy, but I think this is about twice what a player of Punto's profile is worth. Straight from Christensen's blog, here are the specifics:
The deal is for two years, $8.5 million with an option for 2011. Punto will get $4 million in 2009, $4 million in 2010 and the option is for $5 million in 2011 with a $500,000 buyout.
9:00 am - Might as well kick off Day 4 of the Winter Meetings - hopefully Jesse will be around throughout the day to update.
Here's the morning updates:
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette says, regarding Jack Wilson, that "only the Twins are known to be interested." He speculates that the Dodgers could get involved, though, if they can't re-sign Rafael Furcal. Could be another Dodgers-vs-Twins scenario, just like it was with Casey Blake.
- Phil Miller at the PiPress notes that the Twins could end up being the last team in major league history to lose a coin flip. GM's unanimously approved a rule change that would award home-field advantage to the team with the better head-to-head record, not to the outcome of chance. Looks like Joe Nathan's whining has been heard and acted upon. Miller also writes about the Twins' bullpen situation.
- LEN3 is getting antsy: "Man, the team I cover never makes a trade here..... "
- Looks like the folks in San Diego want this Jake Peavy trade done today - and Mark DeRosa appears to be the key.
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118 comments
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Comments
Watching these other Deals go down is Starting to Piss Me off
WILL THE TWINS PLEASE DO SOMETHING!!!!!! MY GOD!
Rule 5 Draft Underway…..
Looks Like Cleveland is Ripping apart that squad….Getting rid of Gutierezz was a Terrible Trade.
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If we don’t take action now…
We’ll settle for nothing later.
by ianmader on Dec 11, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Major League Phase Complete
Twins had the 15 Selection. dont know who they got.
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jason Jones from the Yankees
2008 25 years old AA 13-7 3.33 ERA 2.04 FIP 148.2IP 146 11HR 49BB 91K
AAA 2.38ERA 1.66 FIP 11.1IP 0HR 1BB 11K
Looks like a decent bet for the pen
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 12:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Correction
AA 4.04 FIP
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 12:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thats who we got in the Major League Phase?
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In the Triple A Phase
Twins Select Henry Arias…Right Handed Pitcher from Cincinatti’s Double A Squad.
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Twins lose P Jose Lugo
Not a huge loss. Hasn’t had an ERA under 4 and was just in A+ last year. He’ll come back.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
didnt even know who he was until he was selected
but i didnt know about jason jones and derek rodriguez before either and i think that they both could be pretty successful for the rays and twins
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
by RaysOfHope on Dec 12, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
's Stats
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG 2 3 3.78 18 0 0 0 0 2 33.1 32 16 14 3 18 30 1.28 .260
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Scouts must see something not in the numbers
His peripherals are sup-par: First inning says he pitched in Dayton last year (low A) and had an ERA of 6.21 and a FIP of 4.48.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Only Explanation i can think of is that
Somebody sees a flaw in his pitching style that our minor league coaches/Rick anderson can fix.
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW...
Former Twin news: a few picks after Jason Jones, the Brewers used one of their FIVE Rule V selections on Eduardo Morlan, he of much anguish on this (and other) Twins sites….will he stick with the BrewCrew?
by Radke's Cheese on Dec 12, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
rays fan here as well and i think that morlan is going to make it with the brewers
but he has to get in shape, he is getting fatter and losing velo quick
derek rodriguez makes up for the morlan loss
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
by RaysOfHope on Dec 12, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The twins Do Something!
KFAN Reports the Twins have Signed…Fucking Nick Punto!
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 1:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Man...
I snuck home for lunch because I had an inkling that something went down…that inkling proved to be disappointing.
by Chuck Tweedy on Dec 11, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
MLBtraderumors.com says the
Peavy-cubs Deal is Dead….Seperate Deals to the cubs for Mark DeRosa involving the Twins and Phillies are still there.
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
LNP
#$%#$$#$#$#^^^&%$@…words to that effect are not good for a site like this!
by 33MorneauMVP on Dec 11, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That means the 40-man roster...
…is now full at 40. Was 38, added Punto and Jason Jones to bring it to 40. We also now have three pitchers who cannot be sent to the minors (without going thru wairvers) for one spot in the pen…Bonser, Humber and Jones.
Gotta believe the Twins are trying very hard to move either Humber or Bonser!
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Correction...
…Jones would need to be offerred back to the Yankees. As far as the Twins are concerned, all three need to make the Club or they are likely gone.
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Twins could
be trying to move Humber and Bonser together. That’s bound to garner a little interest.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Likely Twins 09 staff
1. Liriano
2. Baker
3. Slowey
4. Perkins
5. Blackburn
6. Jones
7. Humber
8. Bonser
9. Crain
10. Breslow
11. Mijares
12. Nathan
What’s the problem? There’s room for all those guys.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cheer up
I forgot Guerrier. Just a reminder, here’s what he did in the second half last year:
31G 1-5 25.1IP 8.88ERA 37H 26R 25ER 7HR 16BB 21K
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
CMath...
…I was going to point out Guerrier. I think the Twins will give him a break on the second half as he had been very good in 2007 and the first half. Would love to know what happened during the second half…could be an explanation we know nothing about.
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I saw
He lost the feel of his curve ball. When he couldn’t get it to break, he became a sinker/slider pitcher without much of a sinker.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
CMath...
…is it possible that Guerrier just wasn’t able to make 70 something appearances, and was flat tired out?
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that could be it.
He was pretty much useless once Gardy started using him 2 out of every 3 games during that one stretch. I hope it was just an issue of fatigue.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His appearances paralleled that of '07
Outings by month. 2007 first line, 2008 second line:
10-13-12-12-13-13
11-15-13-12-13-12
He did pitch fewer innings in ’08, even though he appeared in three more games.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 12, 2008 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2007 may have caught up to him
88 innings, as well as the increased role as a setup guy probably did him in
by Adam Peterson on Dec 11, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
He didn’t have much life on the fastball either, so that was mostly fatigue I think. The real problem was Neshek. Once Neshek hurt his arm, Gardy spread his work out between Rincon, Guerrier, and Bass. All three of those guys had a horrible time taking on the additional strain.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, that is not possible
Why would he have been “flat tired out?” He pitched more innings in 2007 and no one was crying about his workload.
Anyone who thinks Gardy “destroyed” Guerrier last season really needs to explain that. If ol’ Neil means Guerrier was overworked, well, he wasn’t.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 11, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You got a better explanation?
Guys don’t just fall off a cliff like this unless they’re either injured or they have a dead arm due to fatigue.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't we back up and talk about what I actually said?
Second part first. I said Gardy clearly did not “destroy” ol’ Matt. Do you agree or not?
If not, what was the great disservice that Gardy did to Matty that destroyed him?
Now let’s take the first part. We have someone saying Matty was “flat out tired.” Do you agree that he was?
If you answer “yes,” then why was he not “flat out tired” the year before, when he worked more innings?
by Johnny Safron on Dec 11, 2008 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tell us why
For the record, I never said Gardy destroyed Guerrier. I only said he looked tired, he lacked the life on his fastball and he lost his curveball. Those are all symptomss of dead arm. That he had a dead arm seems fairly obvious to me and it’s reflected in the numbers. How he got it is a mystery, cause Gardy used him about the same. Who knows? Like I said, if you have a better explanation, let’s have it.
Whatever it was, I am not nearly as confident that he will return to form as the Twins front office is. I’ve seen too many short relievers flame out after three or four years of effectiveness to count on a bounce back. And he really has had only a year and a half as an effective short reliever. For the two years prior to that, he was an effective long reliever. I venture that long relief is easier on the arm because you only have to pitch a couple of times a week.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For the record...
…the remarks on which I am commenting were not made by you. Check the posts above yours.
Here are some facts about Guerrier. He’s a fastball-slider pitcher, which has kept him from his goal of being a starting pitcher. Two-pitch pitchers who don’t have a hoppin’-pea fastball walk a fine line, even in middle relief. Especially when they have sliders that lean toward ordinary more than they lean toward Ron Guidry.
More facts: He pitched about 27 innings the last two months of ’07, and they were not his best innings relative to the first four months, but they were exceptional compared to his last two months of ’08. However, he pitched only 19 innings the last two months of ’08, so AS ANOTHER POSTER maintains, he certainly was not “destroyed” by Gardy. (And, as an aside, had the Twins picked up La Troy rather than Eddie at the end of the season, they would have been in great shape.)
Now for the conjecture. This guy lost his confidence. Specifically, he lost it July 31 at home in a win against the White Sox. He walked onto the mound with a 3.2 ERA that night, Four outings – 2 and 2/3 innings later – he was at 4.2. It just got worse and worse after that.
By the way, he finished that inning against the Sox on July 31 with a swinging strikeout of Nick Swisher, after which I said to my seatmate, “the Twins can’t count on him anymore.”
It turned out to be true. The only question is, did it turn out to be true because of what I think I saw, or did it turn out to be true because his arm was shot, his command was shot, or he had girl problems? I was right about the future. The remaining mystery is cause-effect.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 12, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Three more things
Like I said, it was obvious to most of us that he had a dead arm and couldn’t be trusted to get tough outs after July 31. So how come it wasn’t obvious to Gardy and Andy? Gardy kept putting him in in close-and-late situations through most of August and he kept coughing up the lead. Meanwhile Breslow was primarily used in blowout situations until September.
Prior to 2008, I thought Gardy was really good at handling a bullpen, which is what separates the men from the boys in the management ranks. But he was really bad at it in 2008. I’ve said this a bunch of times, but the Twins blew a dozen leads with either Rincon, Bass or Guerrier on the mound long after it was clear they were not good late-inning options. And they let seven other close games get out of reach with those guys. Two of those guys were unceremoniously dumped by Smith to save the team from Gardy running them out there. Guerrier was not dumped, but he would have been if this was the Red Sox or Yankees. He was kept for the same reason the Twins tendered Rincon a contract last year: Loyalty to Andy’s projects. Loyalty cuts both ways: When it’s misplaced, it can really do damage to a team.
I predict a 2008 Rincon-like season from Guerrier in 2009. I think he’s done. And if I were the GM, I’d nontender him.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Handling a bullpen is easier
if you have shutdown setup guys like Neshek and Guerrier for the 7th and 8th innings. When your 8th inning guy goes down, it affects the entire bullpen.
I’m not expecting a 2008 season from Guerrier, and I wouldn’t nontender unless we have a better alternative to fill his spot. If he starts off as badly as Rincon did last year, drop him.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His SO/IP...
was the same as the previous year. And that stat for ’07 and ’08 is way above his previous seasons. That argues against a “dead arm.” His walk totals were way out of line with ’07.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 12, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fatigue affects command
Less a “dead arm” than arm fatigue affecting Guerrier’s command. Speculation, of course.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Overwork the year before
I haven’t read the back and forth here, but IMO, it’s probably the 2007 innings more than 2008 overwork. Yes, Guerrier pitched 157, 105 and 163 innings from 2002-2004, but in 2005 and 2006 he pitched around 70. Bumped up to 88 in relief in 2007. Remember, for a reliever, it’s not just a matter of 18 more innings, but the additional number of times he got up and down in the bullpen. As evidence of this additional workload:
2005: 43 games, 71.2 IP
2006: 43 games, 78.1 IP
2007: 73 games, 88 innings
That’s 30 more games pitched in 2007 than the previous years. Considering the number of pitches thrown in a given inning versus in warmups and bullpen, I’d guess that Guerrier may very well have thrown twice as many pitches in 2007 as in 2005 and 2006.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Bill James (Rob Neyer, actually) has a theory that, if a pitcher pitches significantly more innings one year, you can expect a significant drop-off the following year. The good news is, now that he’s thrown a similar number of innings from 2007 to 2008, we can expect some form of a rebound in 2009. That said, James’ theory is mostly based on starters rather than relievers. So I’m not sure how well it ports to relievers. It would be an interesting study, because relievers do flame out unexpectedly in the game.
Perhaps there’s an as-yet-undiscovered science behind why relievers flame out when they do. I’m sure age is one of the variables. And that’s what worries me about Guerrier. He’s on the wrong side of the age/performance bell curve. So while I would expect some kind of bounce, I don’t expect him to get back to 2007 form again.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And
Converting from long man to short man might take a while to show up in the form of minor arm problems. If you’re only getting up a couple of times a week, you’re basically on a starting schedule, except, when you get in games, you only pitch up to three innings at a time. So it’s really easy on the arm. As a short reliever, you get up four or five times a week, even if you only get in three games.
It’s interesting to note that the Twins have converted three guys from long man to short man with similar results each time. Hawkins, Rincon and Guerrier made the same conversion. They had career years the year after the conversion. But then they started to really struggle. Hawkins has bounced back, but it took him a few years. I don’t expect Rincon to bounce back. And Guerrier might be a coin flip at this point.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guerrier
Shouldn’t Matt Guerrier be on that list, or did the Twins nontender him while I wasn’t paying attention? I believe he’s on the Bonser-Humber-Jones “use ’em or lose ’em” list (although maybe you’re just thinking they’d lose him, after last year).
I don’t find that bullpen nearly as depressing as Jesse does, by the way – there’s no dominant 8th-inning setup guy like everyone’s been clamoring for, but there are a few guys who I think would be effective there as a team (Crain, Breslow, Mijares, although I’m sure one of the latter two will be relegated to the LOOGy role), and I’m one of those who think Boof will eventually be an effective reliever as well. That leaves Humber as the long man/emergency starter and Jones as the young guy who gets reps in mop-up duty. Not wonderful, but not the end of the world, either.
ADDENDUM: As usual, cmath is too quick for me.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Dec 11, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I could see that
although, with our pitching depth below Bonser and Humber, I might look at Perkins or Blackburn and give the opportunity for someone to step up in the #5 spot. Not sure if we’d get more for Perkins/Blackburn or for Bonser-Humber together.
Now that we’re out of the running for a SS, suppose we’d be looking for a 3B.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 11, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Punto
sigh
In the immortal words of Bo Diddley’s maraca man:
“where’s the bar man? please show me to the bar.”
And I was in such a good mood. I just can’t take two more years of sliding into first, never getting in front of the ball, popping up bunts and striking out on pitches out of the zone. I have had it up to here (holds hand above head) with Pune Boy.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't get the Pune Boy reference.
Maybe I’m thinking too hard.
I have a hard time thinking that the Twins are done. Even if nothing gets accomplished at the Winter Meetings, and it’s really looking like nothing will be accomplished at the Winter Meetings, there’s still a lot of off-season left. This team clearly CAN make a move or two, it’s just about finding the right fit. I just hope they’re not being so cautious that they’re pulling themselves out of possible negotiations before they even get to the table.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pune
Is a derogatory term for female genitalia.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh.
Clearly one I have not used. Very likely, the only one.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Poon
Sorry, never having seen the long form in print, I assumed it was spelled with a “u”.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is it
That no one has ever thought of calling him Nick Pun-tang?
Fail, us.
by Neil on Dec 11, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have
Here a few times, especially after he wore the hood, including a strikeout on a foul bunt. But nobody noticed, I guess.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I will give Punto...
…credit for having a much better 2008 than 2007. Now if he can only learn to bunt and keep his head in the game on the bases…..something a guy who has to play “small ball” must do to be effective for this team.
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fundamentals
If he just played the way he was taught in little league, he’d be a good player. I saw a real attempt by him to play under control and do the little things in the second half last year. Hopefully he’s finally convinced himself to play that way and not rely so much on flash. It was his freewheeling style that led to such big swings of inconsistency, IMO.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe going into spring training...
…as the starting shortstop will give him the confidence needed to play the way he should…good, solid fundamental baseball. Do the little things well, hit .280-.290, steal 20-25 bases and not make a lot of mistakes on the bases, on defense or when asked to bunt or move a guy over.
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alternate years
2004-2005: BAD
2006: AVERAGE
2007: HISTORICALLY BAD
2008: AVERAGE
The best we can hope for is MLB-average SS production from Punto.
The worst we can hope for, we’ll regret giving him a two year contract, that’s for sure.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 11, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
I don’t understand why we gave him 8Mil for two years, we could find better production out of Tolbert and would cost a hell of a lot less.
I am not surprised though, Gardy is too infatuated with the guy.
Shakes head
by Piranah14 on Dec 11, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Considering defense
It’s not a slam dunk that Tolbert’s production would be better.
However, when the Royals are making a hard run at Rafael Furcal and we just signed Punto for two more years, i find it hard to be happy about it. I really hoped we could work something out for DeRosa and force Philly to sign Punto.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 11, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Odd number years
Have been really tough on him. So, I’m not optimistic for 2009.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
People are missing the punto on Punto
Gardy values his defense, speed and overall flexibility. He can play 3B, SS and 2B, plus the outfield. Late in games, with pinch-hitters and runners and moving guys around, that’s the kind of flexibility Gardy—or any manager—treasures. He can hit from either side of the plate and bat down in the order, or, if someone is injured, in the 1 or 2 hole.
You can criticize this signing all you want. The fact is, Punto had other offers but wanted to play with the Twins, and Gardy wanted him back for the above reasons.
Sure, his 2007 year was execrable, but 2006 and 2008 were good and decent respectively. He is a major league player who is capable, and occasionally, makes outstanding plays on defense. He’s not going to be an All-star, but neither does he deserve all the beatings and derision he’s received on the Inter-tubes.
Given the alternatives, I think most of us will come to realize that—given the Twins financial status—Punto is a player who fits well with the team and Gardenhire’s philosophy.
by Old Twins Cap on Dec 11, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good points about Punto's value
but the ability to play 3B, SS, 2B and OF is more important for a utility bench guy. Now, Punto is going into 2009 as the starting SS, same way he ended last year. IMO, Tolbert already gives us the flexibility at a lower price.
I wanted to see this team get better through FA or trades. We chose the status quo (for two more years) at SS.
You say “Given the alternatives”…to what are you referring? Yes, there are worse, or more expensive options (Orlando Cabrera, Khalil Greene, etc), but there were many better ones.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of available options
He was the best defender. But he still is really sloppy if he didn’t make so many careless errors (due mostly to hot dogging, imho), he would be above average. As it is, he’s average at best defensively. So I would have preferred an upgrade defensively. It just didn’t happened because there just weren’t any available above average defenders on the market.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as long as he keeps up or stays close to what he did last year and im cool with punto being back
but if he goes back to 2007 then i will hunt him down and do bad things to him, and i bet some of you guys would help lol
everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
by RaysOfHope on Dec 12, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eddie Murphy in Trading places...
" I was in Denang, Poa Fang, Puntang…"
Pune is short for the last one.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Punto
Jeez, I don’t know what you guys are mad about. Punto is a grinder, man, a competitor who works his tail off. Pure grit. Nothing but hustle. He even hustles after striking out 200 times a year.
(/sarcasm meter breaks)
by Jon Marthaler on Dec 11, 2008 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Have you seen the comments section of Joe C.'s initial report?
It’s pretty polar. You get a lot of people who HATE the signing and are bashing their heads in, and then on the other side are the grit/heart/hustle lovers. Makes for an entertaining browse.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Strib comments
Strib comments are never entertaining unless you enjoy losing braincells.
by Zathras on Dec 11, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They do drive me mad.
But I have to resist the temptation of becoming “that guy” that has to log on just to correct all the baseless argumentative bullshit.
Tell you what though, it just makes me appreciate this site that much more.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Craig and Dan
Two of the biggest dillweeds in the blogosphere.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reasoned analysis
One of the reasons this site is so much fun. Thanks!
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Phillies Close to Signing Chan Ho Park
in other MLB News
by Tony_O on Dec 11, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Checking.....
Yep. That sick feeling is still there 90 minutes later.
by TMW on Dec 11, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I will go on record...
…saying that I am excited going into 2009 with last year’s team, plus one decent short reliever to replace Neshek.
Our five young starters with another year’s experience, Jesse Crain a year away from surgery, Span, Gomez, Young, Buscher and Tolbert with last year under their belt. This could be a very good baseball team….I am excited and hope they don’t do something dumb.
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Doing nothing
is better than doing something dumb.
But I do hope they find another bat at third base. With Kouz’s defense, Beltre’s no-trade clause…I’m kind of liking Ty Wigginton right now.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jesse...
…I like a platoon of Buscher/Harris with Tolbert backing up Punto and Casilla. If either of the middle guys is in an extended slump, Tolbert is very good and an excellent reserve.
Maybe I am higher on Buscher than most, but I think he will continue to be a very good hitter that gets it done in the clutch. Now if he only would go to the Corey Koskie school of making himself a better defensive player over the winter…..eh?
by roger13 on Dec 11, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Terrible defense
and I don’t expect Buscher’s clutch hitting to continue, especially at 2008 levels. I’d rather see Harris earn 75% of the playing time at 3B, if we don’t get a 3B elsewhere. My vote is for Kouzmanoff, see what he can do outside of Petco.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 11, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good god
this run of posts from the much esteemed Roger and Jesse are really disturbing to me. They sound like the words of the totally downtrodden.
The same team as last year is OK? Doing nothing is better than doing something dumb? Is this what we’ve come to? We’ve talked ourselves into Punto?
Where’s the outrage, I say! I certainly hope they still do something at 3B, but we’re already talking ourselves into Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris?
Look, 3B has been a problem since Koskie. If this were a 1 year thing, OK, but the utter failure to solve this problem in 5 years is an indictment. Punto as a starter? Really? The guy has a career 74 OPS+. Maybe Ozzie Smith can hit like that and still deserve to play, but not Nick freaking Punto.
This team had obvious problems—left side of the infield and, to some extent, the bullpen. So far, nothing has been done to address these problems. There is plenty of money, or should be, and there is talent that could be traded. So far, nothing. Take a freaking chance on Rafa Furcal; move some pieces for Kouzmanoff or Derosa; try to put together the best team you can, for Eff’s sake.
I mean really. Doing nothing isn’t OK with me.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 11, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doing nothing
this year will, at best, put us in the same position as we were last year. Cisco and growth from the youngsters will (IMO) be balanced out by RISP and injurie(s) to the pitching staff…
My two biggest complaints with the Punto signing:
- The urgency. We HAD to do this right now, at the winter meetings, before Furcal, etc signed? It was not a doomsday scenario if Philly had signed him…
- Two years. Again, why? We had to go the extra mile to pry him away from Philly or Arizona?
Ugh. I’d rather see us be aggressive and apply our surplus (pitching) to address a need (3B, SS). We did it last year, and even though it didn’t work out as we hoped, we should keep trying.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On Buscher
I would be very shocked if he continues to be as productive as he was last year. In six seasons in the minors he is .280/.349 /.404 and in 472 career major league at bats he is .280/.335/.373 which isn’t that good.
Last year was by far his best season in his career and he will be 28 next season so I think he is either at or past his prime. To me, he is just a solid backup in the majors.
by Piranah14 on Dec 12, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He'd be a solid backup
if he played average defense. Being well below average, he’s a fringe backup. Had a relatively good year last year, but luck played a large part.
BABIP: .349
RISP: .386
These are two numbers I expect will balance out next year. I’d prefer to see if someone else overvalues his .294 AVG and RBI from last year.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RISP
I hope status quo will be good enough next year, but don’t think it will be.
We’re going to have to make up for a bunch of runs once our RISP batting average levels out. My guess is probably somewhere around 40-50. Pitching could improve with Liriano in the rotation from day one, but we were relatively lucky and healthy in the rotation. If we stand pat, we’re going to have to depend on growth from Young, Gomez, etc to cover the RISP gap.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 11, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Crede
So when do we sign Joe Crede?
hahah. I dont know about it, but it might not be that bad of an idea… If we can keep him healthy, share time with Buscher, then it might be feasible…
by ianmader on Dec 11, 2008 3:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Why not take a chance on someone like that when you have a decent backup plan? He’s right handed, hits for power, and unlike every other 3b we’ve looked at, plays great defense. Platooning him a bit might keep him off the DL, or it might not. I’d rather take a chance on that then give up talent for Kouz/Atkins
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 11, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
same here!
I have always wanted the Twins to sign Crede through this whole season and off season. He would be a great pickup since he has a good glove and power bat. If he does go on the shelf, we always have Harris/Buscher + Hughes/Valencia in the minors! PICK HIM UP NOW!!!!
by 33MorneauMVP on Dec 11, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we sign Crede
what do we do with Harris and Buscher? With Tolbert, Casilla and Punto around, one of the two would go. Also, how much do you think we improve with Crede as opposed to Harris/Buscher. Definitely a big improvement defensively, but (likely) marginal offensively.
If we sign Crede, I’d look to trade Harris and/or Buscher. If we traded both, Tolbert could be the backup 3B.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't necessarily assume that
I don’t think they have to go anywhere if we sign a FA 3B. They aren’t really proven starters yet. I could see Buscher in Rochester and Harris on the bench as a utility in-fielder.
And I don’t think Harris or Buscher have much trade value alone, they would be more like a deal sweetener for a trade involving one of our young arms or an outfielder.
by Piranah14 on Dec 12, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Buscher was one of the Twins’ most productive hitters after his call-up last year. I appreciate your caution on him, but he stands to be a very good left-handed bat off the bench, at the very least. That’s something the Twins don’t have, unless they bench Kubel, which I would not do at this stage in his career.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can he repeat
the BABIP and RISP AVG? I doubt it. However, he’s our LH bat off the bench, so unless we have someone else…
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sweetener
Yep. I don’t see there being much trade value for Harris/Buscher alone either. A minor leaguer with limited upside perhaps. Our best bet is someone looking for pitching and a 3B. Part of a Seattle package?
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, we’re probably going to need all those guys, because you know one of them is going to get a serious injury (somewhere in the hand) and miss alot of time
by thewild_viking_twins on Dec 13, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Crede
Anyone know how much a year he’d be asking for?
by ianmader on Dec 11, 2008 4:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i'd try him on a one-year deal, maybe with a club option for a second year.
i’d offer $3 million for the first year, and $5 million for a second. i think that at this point in his career, that’s fair.
at best, you get good defense (if he’s healthy), and a guy who might hit 25-30 homers while hitting .260/.320/.450. All that together is acceptable. but good defense with worse hitting, or a deteriorating presence in the field with that line, and you might as well go with a Buscher/Harris/Macri/Tolbert/Punto platoon. at the worst, you pay $3 million for a guy who plays 45 games and is on the verge of hanging up his cleats.
for as tempting as crede might be, he’s only posted an OPS+ better than 100 twice…2002 and 2006. he’s an extreme fly-ball hitter, which means a lot of easy outs, and in spite of decent enough strikeout rates he swings at about 30% of anything outside of the strike zone. crede has upside on power and defense, but there are a lot of other better options out there.
by Jesse on Dec 11, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Incentive-laden based on games played
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 11, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
His defense is very good. The last 3 years (while he hasn’t been healthy) he’s averaged out to be about 13 runs above average for 150 innings. That’s while he’s been battling back injuries. None of the other guys we are looking at are even average defensively. That defense combined with about league average offense would be a big upgrade. The only guy to me that really is a bigger upgrade would be Beltre, because he’s the only one who’s above average at the plate and on defense.
Atkins is barely above average offensively, and is absolutely awful on defense.
Kouzmanoff is a bit below average offensively and defensively
Wigginton is almost as bad as Atkins defensively, but was a monster offensively this year. This might be sort of a fluke, but even with regression he’s a better player than Atkins.
If Crede gets hurt and doesn’t play more than 50 games (which is fairly likely) than it doesn’t matter and we’ll go to plan b. But if we can sign him for a reasonable, maybe incentive laden contract, he is definately better than all of the alternatives besides Beltre, and wouldn’t cost any players.
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 12, 2008 2:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least Crede would probably be willing to sign here
>>since the last time they’d looked into Beltre during the season — he’d added the Twins to a list of teams on his limited no-trade clause.
This is the one element that is never discussed as Twins’ fans bitch and moan about no deals being made or free agents being signed. The Twins face the same issues other Minnesota employers face – you have to sell prospective employees on your organization, then you have to sell them all over on the state.
Between the short-term misery of the Dome and the long-term prospect of playing outside in Minnesota (sure, no worse than Detroit, Chicago, Boston and other places as far as weather, but perception is everything), the fact is some people just aren’t interested in being here.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 11, 2008 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
This might be true
but if it is, I think it’s true at the very top of the market, where the Twins aren’t playing anyway. I have trouble believing that if the Twins made the best offer to Rafael Furcal, that he wouldn’t sign with them.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 11, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don't have to be a corporate executive to not want to live in Minnesota
You could be a mid-level IT person.
Or a college intern.
Where you stand in the food chain has no relevance on your opinion of working and living in Minnesota.
by Johnny Safron on Dec 11, 2008 6:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Takashi Saito
I have no idea if I spelled that right or not but anyhow it’s looking like he’s expected to be non tendered tomorrow. Would the Twins be interested in picking him up? He might be a bit spendy which is why he’ll be nontendered but since we have plenty of extra right now why don’t we go after a solid setup guy at least. Who else is there for relievers on the FA market?
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Dec 11, 2008 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Japanese
It’s what our team is missing. I knew it was missing something. It needs a token japanese person!
by ianmader on Dec 11, 2008 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pitching
I still don’t think Perkins is totlaly written in stone as a starter. But who would replace him (a signing, perhaps). Humber, Boof?
The joy of Breslow/Mijares is that both offer something Reyes didn’t…they can pitch to mroe than just a batter or two on a consistent basis.
Guerrier, I always liked a the long-man out of the bullpen with an occasional pick-up role. Picture that Crain has to step up as the set-up guy.
I can see Boof or Humber, but not both. The Twins could always start the season with one lefty (let Mijares start at Rochester). Then Jones could be written in…the Brian Bass/Willie Eyre of 2009!
I’m still wondering how the World Baseball Classic will work into everything, again, this year. Remember that its when pitchers are getting structured work in spring training (usually).
Any idea who’s playing for the Twins elsewhere (Mauer, Morneau, Casilla, Gomez, Liriano pretty much givens, I imagine, on the world squads).
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Dec 11, 2008 7:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree about your observation on Perkins. But I think the Twins are pretty set on going into opening day with their current rotation., unless of course they get a good trade offer.
I have a feeling he will struggle and midway through the season one of our other young pitching prospects will take his spot in the rotation.
by Piranah14 on Dec 12, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perkins
I think you have to consider that he was coming off a career low in innings (38) due to injuries in 2007. So he just wore down towards the end of the year. He was really good in July and August, however:
July: 5 starts 4 -1 31.2IP 3.98 ERA
August: 5 starts 4-0 35.1IP 3.31 ERA
Between the two, he was 8-1 with a 3.61 ERA. At the end of that stretch, I remember writing that he was the staff ace. Then he just hit the wall in September. Like I said, chalk that up to fatigue.
That said, the aforementioned Bill James theory about increasing innings more than 30 percent in one year applies. Pitchers who do that tend to struggle the next year. So Perkins might struggle in 2009. I still think he’s a good long-term option as a starter, though.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jones vs Boof or Humber
If we fail to move Boof or Humber via trade, I’d rather keep both of them than give Jones a roster spot. Boof and Humber have some value and upside. Offer Jones back to NY or let him go.
I’m expecting we’ll have a bullpen of
Nathan, Mijares, Crain, Guerrier, Boof, Humber, Jones
12 man pitching staff at the moment, considering the flexibility of Punto, Harris, Tolbert as position players.
I hope another move or two is still coming.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Breslow
I think he’s earned a spot based on 2008.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Dec 12, 2008 6:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot him
Right. Breslow has earned a spot. 8 guys for 7 spots at the moment…
by Adam Peterson on Dec 12, 2008 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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