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Ty Wigginton + Minnesota Twins = ?

Today the Houston Astros non-tendered their third baseman, Ty Wigginton.  He's going to garner a few long, hard looks from a handful of teams around the league...but for right now let's forget about that.  Minnesota could use an upgrade at third base.  Could this be a match?

During the Winter Meetings the Twins were connected to Ty Wiggington...loosely.  Usually this was in speculation which wasn't necessarily baseless, but it might as well have been.  If any third baseman was available, you could pretty much draw a line between him and Minnesota.

Last season the right-handed hitter Wigginton, 30, hit .285/.350/.526 with 23 home runs for the Astros.  Even though it was in a hitter-friendly park (with a 315 foot left-field portch, no less), those still look like some pretty good numbers.  His EQA was .291, which is good, and his translated line is .284/.351/.573.  That's encouraging.  In simple terms, Wigginton's .876 OPS would have been fifth best in all of baseball among third basemen, behind Chipper Jones, A-Rod, David Wright and Aramis Ramirez.

Next year Wigginton will be in his age-31 season.  That's not necessarily a time for decline at corner infield positions, but what kind of year at the plate could we expect?  Bill James and Marcel have already projected 2009, and I've also included Pecota's 2009 projection from their '08 numbers:

Baseball trades, rumors and blog coverage - SB Nation MLB Hot Stove

2009 Projection 2B HR AVG OBP SLG
Bill James 31 23 .269 .335 .465
Marcels 24 20 .273 .333 .473
Pecota ('08) 26 20 .275 .341 .471

Is any of that overly impressive?  No, it's not, but you're getting more power than you'd get from Brian Buscher or Brendan Harris, and that counts for something.  Any help for the offense is good.

Offensively, Wigginton doesn't usually connect for a great deal of line drives, hitting a few more ground balls.   His strike out and walk rates have been fairly consistent throughout his career, although he does swing at balls outside the strike zone fairly often.  I'd describe him as a contact hitter who can get ahold of one.

So for the runs gained on offense, how many get lost in the field?  While Wigginton is notorious for being versatile, it's another way of saying he hasn't been good enough to lock himself to a single position.  Last year he was strictly third base (652 innings) and left field (247), but he's also logged time in right field, and first and second base as recently as 2006.

I've tried tracking a few defensive stats for 2008, but a number of defensive metrics are either incomplete or not started, so we'll stick to a few basics and see what we can extrapolate from those.

  • Looking at what's available for free from the Fielding Bible, Ty Wigginton wasn't one of the best third basemen in the +/- system, but he wasn't one of the worst, either.  For what it's worth, Adrian Beltre is the best third basemen from 2006 - 2008 (+63), while Garrett Atkins is one of the worst (-42).
  • These are combined 2006 and 2007 Innings, RZR and OOZ totals at third base...with a couple of extras for reference.  Ty Wigginton:  920, .651, 37.  Nick Punto:  1594, .740, 53.  Brian Buscher:  402, .648, 26.  Adrian Beltre:  2637, .700, 125.  Tony Batisa ('06):  434, .602, 15.  Michael Cuddyer ('05):  816, .717, 49.
  • In 2008, Wigginton's glove was one run better than the average third baseman.  Or, in terms of run prevention, he was essentially league average.  Unfortunately that's a high point.  In 2007 he was -11, and since 2003 he's -35.

Those three points sum up Wigginton's defensive finesse pretty well.  He doesn't have good range and thus doesn't make many plays outside of his zone, and even on balls in his zone he's only been making an out on 65% of them.  Historically he's a below average defender.

What Wigginton adds on offense he takes away on defense.  He's not good enough on one side or bad enough on the other to make a swing either way, which means anyone deciding to pick up the former Astro will have to hope that what happened last summer can continue.  Unfortunately, it's most likely that his relatively good fortune in the field was just that--luck.

Totaling up their Batting Runs Above Average and Fielding Runs Above Average, here are your totals over the last three years.  Just remember to put it in perspective, since Wigginton was a total of +17 overall last year.

Ty Wigginton:  16 (+26 Off, -10 Def)
Brian Buscher:  -6  (0 Off, -6 Def)
Nick Punto:  -13  (-21 Off, 8 Def)

Buscher's numbers are for two years, of course, but things aren't too likely to shift dramatically for him this season.  The results are pretty telling, even if nothing we should be too surprised at.  Punto is worth a couple of runs in the field but loses them at the plate, Buscher loses a couple of runs in the field, and if we're to take a stab at what kind of year Wigginton is likely to have, all things would even out.

Which is still an upgrade.  And that's the whole point, as long as you don't end up overpaying ridiculously.  Besides, who knows, maybe we could get another year or two where Wigginton's defense doesn't completely negate what he can offer at the plate.

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Comments

Display:

I like the idea...

For one, in this type of move, they’d be keeping the future open (since it’d likely be a one or two year thing). This is good because Hughes or a few others could be ready in 2010 or 2011.

Also, Delmon Young would remain a Twin, which is never a bad thing if you’re only looking to upgrade the position for a short period of time.

I do question how much the 315 porch in left in Houston affects his numbers. Here are his numbers for home and away last season:

Home: AVG – .343 | 15 homeruns | 35 RBI
Away: AVG – .234 | 8 homeruns | 23 RBI

The averaged dipped quite a bit, but the power was somewhat there. Also, he did have good numbers the year before the trade with Tampa.

It depends on what he asks for. I think that is the final thing. It isn’t a bad guy to take a shot with, but not for the $7 million per season Blake was offered. Wigginton was due to make $5 million in ’09. If we can get him for that, lets do it.

by Twins Territory on Dec 13, 2008 10:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wigginton was due

a raise through arbitration I thought…which would have been more than $5 million. Correct me if I’m wrong there.

As far as the money that the Twins offered Blake, I’d still offer that to Wigginton. I’d go two years, $7 per…although $4 or $5 plus incentives would clearly be better.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Around $7M

Wigginton made $4.35M last year. In arbitration this year, it would be around $7M.

The bidding begins at 2 years / $14M. Would you be more or less likely to give Wigginton a third year than Blake? I’d be more willing, considering his age.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 15, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

More willing, yeah...but

just based on Luke Hughes and Danny Valencia, I wouldn’t want to give any free agent third basemen three years. Someone like Wigginton would still be able to get another contract after a two years, and considering the course of his career a two-year, $14 million dollar contract would mean a pretty sweet bankroll.

I really didn’t want to see the Twins give Blake a third season. With Wigginton I’d probably be okay with it depending on the price, but I’d still prefer not to go that long.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Still seems that...

…if this team picks up a third baseman, it will be in a trade, unless the economic downturn means that guys due to make $5 million aren’t being offered that. His big plus: he’s a worker.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 14, 2008 12:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Certainly seems

like it’ll be through a trade. A lot of teams are in on Wigginton, at least four from what LEN III said, and if it gets into a bidding war I don’t like the Twins chances. And, rightly so, since I’d hate to end up giving him a four year contract worth $20 million plus.

But yeah, he is a worker…I’ve read the Twins call him a “gamer” It’s always better hearing that than the other way around.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Four teams

According to LEN III, it’s SF, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and possibly Cincinnati. I like our chances bidding against that group. Pittsburgh must not like Andy LaRoche very much if they’re looking already.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 15, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If I'm Andy LaRoche

I’m not trying very hard so I can find my way out of that franchise.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Aren't his offensive numbers....

….similar to what Mike Lamb had in Houston, with more home runs? Don’t know how much that plays into any decision, but the Houston ballpark and what Mike Lamb accomplished here may be stuck in the craw of some with the Twins.

I also don’t think it is completely apples to apples to compare his numbers with Brian Buscher. Buscher began 2007 in AA and played only a limited time each year. Brian hit .294 average in 218 at bats last year and should be expected to hit at lease that well in 2009 if he were to be in a platoon with 300+ at bats. Granted, Wiggins will hit more home runs than Buscher/Harris. But isn’t it likely that Harris is better defensively at third with Wiggins and Buscher being similar? Also, using Punto’s numbers in the comparison may be meaningless now that Gardenhire has said that Nick is the Twins starting shortstop.

by roger13 on Dec 14, 2008 9:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Buscher won't repeat his 2008

I expect Buscher’s numbers to fall off from his 2008 performance. His BABIP was .349 and he hit .386 with RISP. Both those numbers will likely regress and he’s looking at .270 with fewer RBI.

As for Wigginton vs Lamb, their numbers aren’t as comparable as you think.

Lamb 2006 Hou: 836 OPS 12 HR
Lamb 2007 Hou: 820 OPS 11 HR

Wigginton 2006 TB: 828 OPS 24 HR
Wigginton 2007 TB-Hou: 792 OPS 22 HR
Wigginton 2008 Hou: 876 OPS 23 HR

Wigginton not only showed he could hit in a more difficult ballpark than Houston (or Texas) for Lamb, but he’s a solid 20-25 HR hitter with position flexibility. Put Wigginton in Minnesota and I’d bet on around an 830 OPS and 20-25 HR. Those numbers would be worth $6-7M a year for me.

Defensively, none of the options are particularly good and I haven’t crunched the numbers, but I would guess Harris, Wigginton, Buscher in that order. I’d guess Harris and Wigginton would be closer, with Buscher a step behind.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 14, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I compared

Wigginton to Buscher, because he’s the incumbant at third base. It might not be entirely fair to Buscher considering his experience, but that’s who we have to compare him to. We know what Brian brings to the table, and I think it’s sensible to compare those two in order to see if, and how big, an upgrade could be achieved by bringing in Wigginton. With Harris, I didn’t include him in my comparison because in ‘06 and ’07, he didn’t play a lot of third base; just 44.2 innings total. That’s not much of a sample size.

I also used Punto in the comparison because we’re used to seeing him play third base. So if Punto played like X, between his and Wigginton’s numbers we can more or less see that Ty played like Y. More like a point of reference.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's an ok option

I don’t believe the other options (Beltre, Kouz, Atkins) are steps up to the point where we should give up players compared to Wigginton.

The home-road splits in Houston concern me, about as much as the splits for Atkins. He’d probably be a 10+ net run increase over a Harris-Buscher platoon, and not at a high cost. For a two year contract with an option, I’d go about $6M per. Around Blake, maybe a small step below.

It’s not like we’re going to give Teixeira $200M to play third anyway.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 14, 2008 9:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Beltre

Is a pretty decent step up, definitely on defense and probably even on offense if for no other reason than he’s been around longer and been more consistent. If it were just money I’d be all for Beltre and his 12 million but adding in players I guess I’d have to agree that Wiggington is probably worth it. The Twins still need to make some room on the roster for another guy by hopefully making a trade with Boof or Humber.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 14, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

That’s about where I am. The other aspect of this is that if we sign Wigginton to 2+, he’s the 3B through 2010. Hopefully Valencia or Hughes is ready at that point…

by Adam Peterson on Dec 14, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beyond the Box Score

Best Third Basemen of 2008

According to this analysis of last year’s performance, Beltre was about 20 runs better than Wigginton. Compared to replacement:

Wigginton: +26 hitting, +7 fielding
Beltre: +28 hitting, +26 fielding

That’s a 21 run gap between the two options if last year were repeated. Considering some expected step down for Wigginton away from Minute Maid Park and a possible step up from Beltre away from Seattle, we’re looking at around 20-30 run gap. Worth us giving up Perkins or Blackburn, IMO. Or Boof-Harris/Buscher.

In fact, looking at Beltre’s defense, I’d even consider extending him before the season. Perhaps I’m getting carried away.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 14, 2008 12:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Extending Beltre

wouldn’t be a bad idea, depending on what he was looking for. Unfortunately I imagine he’d be looking for more money than he’s making now, and considering his age and his average offensive production, if I were the Twins I wouldn’t give him that kind of cash.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure about more money

He’s at $12M per year right now. I don’t see him being a $15M+ player without a huge 2009.

I’d dangle a 2 year extension worth $26M. Lock him up through 2011.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 15, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Beltre's offense

His offensive production is only “average” because he’s played his whole career in pitchers’ parks (LA & Seattle). His career road OPS is 834, which is none too shabby.

The big problem with Beltre is that he hit 48 homers in his contract year, so he’s paid as if he’s a 40-homer guy, not the 25-homer guy he actually is, and that probably set some sort of baseline for his next contract as well.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 16, 2008 9:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Paid as a 40-homer guy.

I agree with that statement 100%.

by Jesse on Dec 16, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One proviso

He is paid as a 40-homer guy in 2004. In 2009 dollars, he’d be looking at $20 million as a 40-homer good defending third baseman. Mark Teixeira will get $200 million for 8 years, and he’s a first baseman. (BTW, how smart was locking Morneau up in 2007 dollars?)

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 16, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Depends on how Gardy uses Wigginton

To me this is a simple issue. The Twins have money to spend and need an upgrade from the right side of the plate. Wigginton provides that. The Twins did not want to trade pitching to get that upgrade…nor lose draft picks..and they don’t have to trade anything or lose a draft pick.

Wigginton is not a great defensive 3b. But not worse than what we have either…And in the American League he can DH once in a while…so you can hide whatever defensive liabilities he has. The more at bats he gets, combined with less exposure defensively…the more of a net gain this is.

The Twins will likely play 60 plus games against LHP. There are plenty of opportunities to get him in games without his defense being an issue. (using him as a DH)

So…aggregate numbers….plus minus type stuff….may not be relevant. If Delmon is having a good year…and Cuddyer is too..then maybe against some lefties you play Delmon in LF, Cuddy in Right…Harris at 3b and Wigginton as DH….

There are so many ways to play this…and all of this without sacrificing a pitcher…in my mind, there are only two possible ways to do better than Wigginton…one is Beltre (but that requires a trade..so we give up something of value to gain…and I think I would rather just sign Wigginton)…the other is Burrell…but then someone has to go or there won’t be enough at bats to go around… (Young, Cuddyer…Burrell) I don’t see that working out…

So…sign Wiggy….use him well…take advantage of the plus 26 hitting…and mitigate the plus 7 fielding…and you have precisely what the Twins wanted…a right handed bat with pop…that we did not have to trade a pitcher to get…or lose a draft pick…

by NorthDakotaTwinsFan on Dec 14, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Use of Wigginton

is a good point, and it’s something I actually wrote about and then deleted. Using Wigginton as the starter and then plugging in a defensive replacement in the later innings is probably the best way to play to the strengths of personnel, rather than relegating him to platooning duties at DH. Kubel, right or wrong, will be getting a grand majority of those DH at-bats, with Mike Redmond and (if we don’t trade Delmon Young) a rotation of outfielders getting most of the others. And if I’m honest, I don’t want to see Kubel lose plate appearances to Wigginton, either.

None of that detracts from your point. They can still mitigate the defensive liabilities, but it’d have to be done without using him too often as a DH.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Wigginton can be used in ways to mitigate his defense, although we don’t have anyone that is a real improvement over him at 3B either.

Also, it’s not like Gardy has had problems with playing time and rotations in the past…d’oh!

by Adam Peterson on Dec 15, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wigginton

I was watching videos of him on MLB.com. A lot of the homeruns he hit to left field were absolute bombs which would have been homeruns in any park. He did he a fair amount of homeruns to right field where they have a short fence. Those homeruns tended to just squeek over the wall. At the dome, those might just be off the baggie, maybe a homerun, I don’t know.
Of course I would pick Beltre anyday over Wiggy. But do we really want a guy on our team who has specifically added the twins to their no trade list.
Overall, I’d really like to see the signing of Wigginton.

by ianmader on Dec 14, 2008 4:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If Beltre wants to get paid

He’s going to hit more homeruns in a ballpark like the Metrodome than in Seattle.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 14, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to agree

I watched some of those videos myself, and a lot of his shots to left were in the seats before he could get to first, and still rising; a few crashed into that ugly stone wall. I think he’s got the power we need, and would be a wise choice to hold third into 2010. Of course, I’m also desperate for something to happen so we can get rid of that awful Punto stink that seems to be lingering…

by Chuck Tweedy on Dec 14, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Track record

Wigginton has shown the power outside of Houston, hitting his HR in Tampa Bay as well. I think he would be a solid upgrade over Harris/Buscher. Would Beltre be an even better addition? Yes, but it depends on whether he added Minnesota to his no trade as a bargaining ploy or because he simply does not want to play here.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 15, 2008 7:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's be realistic

All things being equal, we’d all rather have Beltre. But they’re not equal. Assuming Beltre allows the no-trade clause buyout, it might take a lot of talent and dollars to get him as a one-year rental. Rumor has it Seattle asked for Slowey and Span last year. I don’t think the Twins want to give up either of those guys for one year of Beltre. Even if the Mariners drop their demands and ask for, say, Mulvey and Young, that’s two valuable talents we could hold onto if we sign Wiggington—more valueable than the two draft picks we would get for a Type A free agent. And Beltre is about twice as expensive this year than Wiggington will be in terms of dollars. My cost/benefit analysis favors Wiggington over Beltre, all things considered.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 15, 2008 10:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mulvey and Young

Agree. Beltre definitely not worth the cost there. Bonser and Harris? Worth the cost. There’s a pretty large gap between Seattle’s initial demands and what we’d be willing to give up.

It all depends on the actual cost of Beltre.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 15, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hit Tracker

Check out Wiggy’s Hit Tracker profile:
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_60429&type=hitter
Judged by True Distance Home Runs, at least a couple of his left-field dingers would have been a stretch at the Dome, and maybe an additional 4 or 5 would be in the danger zone.

by PhoenixV on Dec 15, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if it were Bonser and Harris

I would definetly do it. the compensation a Type A free agent would get us would be worth those, plus what he would give us in the field. We should be persuing Wiggy hard core. maybe getting close to singing him, will get us a favorable trade for Beltre, and if not, wiggy has a fun name to say, and a good bat for our lineup. on problem with signing him si that we are already at the 30 man limit, so who do we put on wavers?

Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?

by the Real Thor on Dec 15, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

waivers

For the 40-man roster , the obvious choice is Butera. Armando Gabino is also a possibility. But the Twins added him early in order to lock him up because other teams showed interest in him as a potential sixth-year minor league free agent. Butera is less likely to be claimed. Just another reason why adding him was a head scratcher in the first place. It’s tougher to keep him as a rule 5 draftee than a waiver claim.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 15, 2008 11:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

The biggest surprise in Jesse's writeup

This, from the innings/RZR/OOZ section: Michael Cuddyer (’05): 816, .717, 49

That was not just acceptable; it was legitimately good, comparable with Punto and Beltre. From the prevailing wisdom, I was under the impression Cuddy was throwing his glove at the ball from a distance and screaming like a little girl every time a grounder came his way.

I would usually issue my standard “Don’t acquire an offense-first player from Houston or Colorado, you morons!” warning, but as others have pointed out, Wigginton was basically just as good in Tampa in ‘06 and ’07, so I’m less frightened of him than, say, Garrett Atkins.

I’m not nearly as down on the Buscher/Harris platoon as others here (I think they can put up a 760-780 OPS as a platoon, with 15-20 HR), but I agree that Wigginton is likely an upgrade. I don’t know what they do with the roster situation if they sign a 3B… that probably dooms Buscher to Rochester.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 15, 2008 12:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Cuddyer was a decent third baseman

He just struggled next to Castro. Part of it is he’s deaf in his left ear. Part of it was Castro is a quiet guy. Gardy seems to care more about communication in the infield than whether guys actually make the plays.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 15, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Park Effects

While Wigginton did have some wierd splits this year, Houston is pretty neutral as far as parks go. It got the reputation for being an offensive park in its first year, but thats what happens when your staff ace is Scott Elarton.

by seanbergmanrules on Dec 15, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Houston

was still a hitter’s park this season, with a park factor of 103. In spite of that, in terms of how friendly it was toward hitters, it was right around the middle of the NL.

by Jesse on Dec 15, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My Texan geography is poor

My “Don’t sign them, you morons!” warning is usually Texas and Colorado, not Houston (although I generally find Houston stats suspect as well, just not as much as Texas and Colorado).

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Dec 16, 2008 9:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Minute Maid

That left field porch is like Fenway except the wall is 20 feet lower. So it’s a big advantage for right handed batters.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 16, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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