Twins get their Rule 5 Draft Pitcher Back!

by Tony_O on Dec 25, 2008 12:07 AM EST Comment 41 comments

The Twins have always felt that a knuckleball pitcher would be successful in the Metrodome. And in the Twins' final year inside the Dome in 2009, the club could have one on its staff.

Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey told MLB.com on Wednesday that he's agreed to terms on a contract with the Twins. It's a Minor League contract that includes an invitation to Spring Training. As a six-year Minor League free agent who has service time, Dickey will be paid one level of salary while he's in the Majors and another for the time he'd be in the Minors.

Dickey, 34, went 5-8 with a 5.21 ERA in 32 appearances (14 starts) for the Mariners last season

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081224&content_id=3728374&vkey=news_min&fext=.jsp&c_id=min

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another stupid veteran signing if he makes the team

might as well bring back livan hernandez and ramon ortiz while were at it

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
twins sign ty wigginton ASAP!!!!

by RaysOfHope on Dec 25, 2008 3:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Are you kidding me?

This happens every season. EVERY SINGLE team in major league baseball brings pitchers to camp to fill space and compete for bullpen spots. This doesn’t mean he’ll even make the team.

by Twins Territory on Dec 26, 2008 8:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if he makes the team, then i will be pissed off, but if he is just a camp body/AAA player than i am fine with it

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
twins sign ty wigginton ASAP!!!!

by RaysOfHope on Dec 26, 2008 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

He should start at AAA unless he has an amazing spring.

by Twins Territory on Dec 27, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dickey

I am digging this signing. A lot of us were bummed when he was taken by SEA last year. It is a low risk signing and has ability to pay off.

by WITwinsfan on Dec 25, 2008 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

…older than Livan’s reported age (surprise!), and his career record is far worse. Why in the world would that prompt anyone to use an exclamation point about this signing? Sure, he could turn into an in-his-prime Tim Wakefield, but other than that stray hope, there is ZERO to support any reason for enthusiasm over this. He’s been hammered each time he pitched in the Dome, and opponents have batted well into the .300s against him in Domes and on turf. If you griped endlessly about Livan, what’s the reason to support this? Give me some numbers.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 25, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A) He isn’t coming in to start.
B) He signed a major-minor league deal. Which means they can keep him in AAA.
C) What’s wrong with competition for the last spot for Bonser/Humber/Others?
D) A knuckle ball out of the ’pen in the Dome is intriguing.
E) He had a 2.00 ERA as a reliever last season.

by Twins Territory on Dec 26, 2008 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A) That’s what they say.
B) He’s an AAA+ pitcher who has bounced around, and that’s the kind of contract those people sign.
C) Nothing wrong with a little competition.
D) Why is a knuckleball in a place with no wind intriguing? Knuckleballers love wind. Can anyone explain that?
E) OBP-against in career relief: .347; ‘08 relief innings fall under the statheads’ favorite phrase: small sample size.

Tim Wakefield is a good knuckleball pitcher and his career Dome ERA is 4.5. And this comparing a veteran who has made a living for going on two decade throwing a knuckleball against a AAA+ player.

Again, there might be peace on earth, Brian Buscher might win a Gold Glove and be named AL MVP, and Dickey might actually get someone out way more often than not, but history provides no reason to think so.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 26, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

The knucle-ball notion comes from the team’s talk the past few seasons. They’ve always talked about what a knucle-baller would do in the Dome.

by Twins Territory on Dec 27, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not livan

the difference between this and livan is it’s a minor league contract, not a major league one, and the amount invested is trivial, not millions. It may offer a very low chance of amounting to anything, but the cost is so low that there’s no risk either. He won’t be blocking a better pitcher from the roster, so what’s the problem? It’s very unlikely he’ll amount to Tim Wakefield, but if the Twins coaches see something they like, why not take a shot at him improving? Maybe they see something they can fix.

by by jiminy on Dec 25, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Because he is....

worse than Livan, a minor league contract is what is warranted. None of which changes the notion that if you hated Livan for his record, you have to hate this guy for his record.

As a reliever his career record is bad. You can cherry-pick last year’s stats if you like, but over his career he’s been poor in a relief role, and has not pitched well in tight situations. His relief roles are not crucial roles, because you don’t want a knuckleballer in a tight game in late innings.

(Note to Star Tribune and Pioneer Press editors: he lacks a ulnar collateral ligament, so pencil that into your story budget for about Day 8 of spring training.)

by Johnny Safron on Dec 25, 2008 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Record, Record, Record.

The Twins have always liked the idea of what a kuckle-baller might do in the Dome, that is likely a huge reason he gets a LOOK. This is him signing a deal that guarentees him a spot. He’ll probably need to beat out Humber and Bonser.

Also, the difference between him and Livan is that Livan’s expectations were to come in and start. Dickey really has none. Any possible upgrade he can provide to a poor ’pen in ’08 is a positive.

by Twins Territory on Dec 26, 2008 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A player with a dismal record...

…at any price is still a player with a dismal record. It’s not like they grade on a curve in MLB, and if you make only $500,000 and are a marginal player they give you extra outs. That’s the bottom line. I can’t fathom why anyone is talking money here, particularly on a board that embraces bitching about any borderline signing while asking when the team is going to pony up some money for someone good. Ignore the contract. Ignore his role. Historically, is this a guy you want to send out to the mound in the big leagues? If your answer is “yes” support it with a statistic other than his meager relief ERA in 2008.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 26, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

catching

Well, not only does Redmond or Mauer need to prepare to catch a slow ball all-over-the-place, but will Drew Butera develop into a knuckleball catcher at AAA, thus increasing his worth down the line for a back-up.

The big question is who do the Twins carry as the 7th mop-up bullpen guy, or do they go with another bench-bat. Hopefully Breslow and Mijares are more capable of pitching to multiple batters than, say, Reyes, so the Twins can have one-up there.

Be interesting to see the spring training workload, especially with some guys playing in the WBC (Liriano, Baker perchance?).

Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!

by rosterman on Dec 25, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

not a bad signing if they plan on using as a reliever. In 18 appearences over 36 innings his ERA was 2.00 with a WHIP of 1.11

by MetalMike on Dec 25, 2008 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Finally!

by Twins Territory on Dec 26, 2008 8:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Finally what?

I can cherry-pick Livan’s ‘08 and make him look damned near like Cy Young. And at least with Livan there are more numbers to cherry pick to make him look good. With Dickey, you’ve got his 36 innings of relief in ’08, which ignores his career record in relief. Why would you ignore his career record in relief? Why would you ignore his OBP-against in relief?

by Johnny Safron on Dec 26, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Finally

someone who agrees this isn’t a bad move because it just gives the team another option to look at come February.

by Twins Territory on Dec 27, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

However Dickey has just started throwing the knuckleball so his 08 stats are more relevant than career stats since he’s a different pitcher.

by MetalMike on Dec 28, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Small sample size

You can argue, logically, that because he “just started throwing the knuckleball”, his stats prior to 2008 are not relavant. However, his changing his pitches does not make his 2008 stats any more credible.

Credibility is the statistical term given for the ability of a set of data to accurately project future results. Usually, the key issue considered is volume of data. If you flip a coin 10 times, and you get 6 heads, it doesn’t mean that heads are more likely than tails. On the other hand, if you flip it 1000 times, and you get 600 tails, there is a very good chance that heads is more likely than tails.

This is the problem with Dickey. You can argue that he is worth a look, after a respectable 2008, but you can’t argue that his 2008 statistics are reflective of what should be expected in the future. We talk about this issue a lot, but people frequently make comments that show that they either don’t understand it, or have forgotten about it when analyzing a player. Too often we see what we want to see (6 heads), and decide to interpret it as statistically significant.

by snolls on Dec 28, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dome

Screw the stats, I’m still waiting for someone to explain why in the hell a knuckleball in the Dome is “intriguing.” Moving air helps knuckleballers. We have a lot of windy days in Minnesota, but none in the Dome.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 28, 2008 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Moving Air

The argument is that moving air hurts a knuckle ball. A knuckle ball is unpredictable because it has no spin. If you have wind that in any direction other than exactly behind or exactly in front of the baseball, then in theory, it adds spin, and therefor predictability to the baseball.

This is why a knuckle ball is supposed to dance better in a dome. I don’t know if anyone has ever done any testing of this theory, but that is the theory.

by snolls on Dec 29, 2008 9:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on the direction

I believe a knuckle ball is most effective when thrown into the wind and least effective thrown with the wind. Draws its effectiveness from the air “wake” behind the ball. When thrown with the wind or with a cross-wind, this wake is disturbed and the ball moves less. And in either direction, the wind adds spin and reduces the effectiveness somewhat. In still air, no rotation is added and the wake is undisturbed.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 29, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tim Wakefield

I broke down his away splits from 2000-2008 in Domes and away from Domes. Did it quick and manual, so someone might need to check the math, but it appears that Wakefield pitches better in a Dome than outdoors:

Dome: 237.1 IP 26 HR 97 BB 173 SO 4.46 FIP 0.99 HR/9 3.68 BB/9 6.56 SO/9
Outdoors: 528.1 IP 79 HR 218 BB 403 SO 4.93 FIP 1.35 HR/9 3.71 BB/9 6.86 SO/9

The only real difference for Wakefield is a large difference in HR rate in Domes. SO/BB remains pretty much the same. I don’t have time to break down the Dome teams, it very well could be a matter of Toronto, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Montreal hitting fewer HR (relative to league average) than other Boston opponents (such as NY, Bal, etc). 36% seems like a pretty large difference though. This seems to make sense, as additional wind outdoors could turn a knuckleball into a gopher ball pretty quickly…

by Adam Peterson on Dec 29, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

dome + knuckler

I haven’t seen any stats, beyond the Wakefield breakdown Adam gave, and while stats would obviously be the best way to address this issue, I think there is good reason to hope, or hypothesize, that domes would assist knuckleballs. As Snolls says, the unpredictability of a knuckler is based on it having no or minimal spin. When the ball isn’t spinning, the differential resistance between the laces and the smooth leather causes it to dart in different directions. So it makes sense that the pitch would work best when the air around the ball is not in motion — that would maximize the effects of slight differences in resistance. If air is moving around the ball a lot, those tiny differences wouldn’t determine its motion as much.

Theoretically it should be easy to compare a knuckleball pitcher’s stats in domes vs outside, or better yet all knuckleball pitchers, but until someone bothers with that, I would think it makes sense for a knuckler to work better without a crosswind, etc.

by by jiminy on Dec 29, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Safeco is a dome

A 5.12 era in mop-up situations in Safeco is not impressive. If the knuckler wasn’t moving enough in that dome, it won’t likely move enough in this one.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 29, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Safeco

Isn’t that a retractable roof dome? I am not sure.

by doofus on Dec 30, 2008 12:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

It’s open unless it rains…

by Twins Territory on Dec 30, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's closed more often than that

Pretty much April, May, and September, plus anytime there’s rain on the radar, which in Seattle in June, July and August is about half the time.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 31, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wind

Throwing a baseball into a wind means air moves over a baseball at greater speed. This would cause a properly thrown knuckleball to move more in a span of 55 feet or so compared to a situation with no wind.

You can’t guarantee you will throw into a wind outdoors, but you’ll never do it indoors.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 29, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

can we turn on those metrodome fans that blow out?

It’s true, if thrown exactly into the wind, a knuckler will move more — and any other direction it screws it up. I’m not too crazy about those odds. There’s just too many other directions out there. But it does remind me of a joke. Which is more accurate, a watch that’s five minutes behind, or a watch that’s broken? The broken one — it’s right twice a day! Not exactly the same logical fallacy, perhaps, but it reminded me. If you can find a better joke in support of your argument, you win!

hey, wait, I just thought of something! The Twins are only in a dome one more year! what then?

by by jiminy on Dec 30, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What then?

In regard to Dickey? Well, this AAA pitcher of marginal worth turns 35 then.

As to the stopped watch, presuming it is digital and has no second hand, it’s right 1 in 720 times a day. Meanwhile, even if you want to argue the wind comes from 8 places rather than four, you have a 1 in 8 chance, assuming your premise is correct.

Which it is not.

A knuckler thrown into the wind moves more, but it does not get “screwed up” if the wind blows from elsewhere. (What the hell does that mean? Screwed up?)

That’s the problem with blogs. People say stuff like that and someone inevitably swallows it, without even saying, “prove it.” I know you’re wrong. Prove otherwise to all of us. How does a wind flowing, say, from the first base side, “screw up” a knuckleball?

by Johnny Safron on Dec 30, 2008 6:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be more excited...

…if we hadn’t completely killed him during that one game in Seattle last season.

…. but I’m still somewhat happy about this signing.

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by joeiscool12 on Dec 25, 2008 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and people dont forget the 4 wild pitches in 1 game he has last year

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
twins sign ty wigginton ASAP!!!!

by RaysOfHope on Dec 25, 2008 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wild pitches

weren’t those all in the same inning? tied the record or something…

by ianmader on Dec 25, 2008 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

AAA innings eater

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 26, 2008 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly...kind of

18 apperances and 36 innings, that’s just 2 innings per outing, although he threw a couple of long outing in relief of guys like Silva when they got bombed early. But that’s not a guy who’s blowing through 3 or 4 innings in each lost-cause game.

In Dickey’s ’08 relief appearances, I bet he never entered with a lead, rarely entered with a game tied, and if they kept such a stat he probably led the league in entering a game trailing by 4 or more runs.

So if peeps were concerned about the Twins having enough competition for the bullpen role of pitching with games out of reach, celebrate, man, celebrate.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 26, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand the level of...

…distaste for this deal. It is what it is, the Twins taking a shot on a guy they have obviously liked for some time. And what is it, a minor league deal with a two-way contract and invite to spring training. This deal doesn’t merit more than a mention as one of many deals they do each winter of guys that once in a great while may surprise and provide some serious help to the big Club. Odds are he will open the season in AAA with what I expect is an out clause if not on the Twins roster by early summer when some of the kids from New Britain can be expected to move up to AAA.

Would all of us prefer that the Twins made a big move by now, certainly. But this deal has nothing to do with what else the Twins have or have not done.

by roger13 on Dec 26, 2008 1:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like the deal

I just can’t get excited about it because I only follow prospects at Rochester, not roster fillers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 26, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i follow some of the roster fillers who had past success in the bigs though

such as danny graves last year

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
twins sign ty wigginton ASAP!!!!

by RaysOfHope on Dec 26, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Distaste?

That’s quite an inference. Back before the Internet, a deal for a mop-up reliever/AAA No. 4 starter would have appeared in six-point type in the scoreboard under “Transactions” and no one would have even written a story on it. Now beat writers blog and you need to put something in them. But then, if there’s freezing rain in St. Louis and drivers start skidding into the ditch, you can watch it on every cable news network. Every 15 minutes.

Too much media, not enough news.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 26, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs