Gardy picks his outfield of choice

Howard Sinker's blog has a nice discussion of this issue. According to Howard, Gardy said he wants Span, Gomez and Cuddyer as his starting outfield in 2009. My question is, why would you show your cards before making a deal with Delmon? Perhaps they already have an agreement in principle to move him.

11 months ago cmathewson 45 comments 0 recs |

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Argh.

Delmon was your fourth or fifth best hitter.

Gomez was your worst hitter.

I don’t get this. I just don’t.

by Neil on Dec 4, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

OK PEOPLE STOP IT WITH GOMEZ, JUST STOP!

last year was carlos gomez’s rookie year and i expected that type of season from him, and i think he is going to grow up alot next year and everyone throwing under the bus will regret saying he should be in the minors or on the bench

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Dec 5, 2008 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Was he a rookie

He played 58 games for the mets in 2007. I assume this means his is going into his third year of mlb time. I don’t know how this works.

by snolls on Dec 5, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he was in the prospect handbook last year for the mets, so yes he was a rookie

he had under 130 ABs for the mets

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Dec 7, 2008 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Free agency

Do you know when he will become a free agent, assuming he stays in the majors? Cot’s contracts says he has .141 service time, but I don’t know what the rule is.
Also, if he is still considered to be going into his third year (last of serfdom), how long would he have to stay at AAA for the Twins to get an extra year of control?

by snolls on Dec 7, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Um

Delmon Young is the exact same age. Don’t we expect marked improvement from him too? I think Gomez needs to prove that he deserves a major league slot, and has not done it yet.

by Neil on Dec 5, 2008 9:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

gardy

Reminds me of my old highschool orchestra director. He decides who he likes, according to reasons only known to himself, and to hell with everyone else. Sigh.

Queue trading Delmon for TEH EXPERIENCE that we need so badly, no matter whether they can actually play baseball any more. I hear Moises Alou is available. He’s a PROVEN WIINNAR!

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Dec 4, 2008 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This kind of makes sense

Gomez and Span in Left and Center gives us amazing defense and Cuddyer knows the Metrodomes left Field like the back of his hand. I still think no matter who the “starters” are we’ll see plenty of Young in this case either way. Young can DH for Kubel against Lefties and split time with Cuddyer in right field. Other days they can possibly put Span in center and rest Gomez while putting Young in right. The OF 5 will have to split time in some manner as we’re going to want all of them playing and it strengthens our bench significantly. However, there’s still a good chance one of them is traded as well as one of them missing significant time with injury (cough Cuddy, cough).

I like Gardy but damn, that guy just needs to shut up from time to time. Hopefuly you’re right and theres a deal already in place and it’s a good one. I’m still a big Delmon fan but if we could get Escobar for him I’d be willing to trade from strength to fill a weakness like that. Escobar hit just as many homers and almost as many Doubles as Young last year in fewer at bats. I know he’s not a top flight defender but he could be moved to 2B and Casilla could try out SS this year.

Sorry, bit of a tangent there. my bad

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 4, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Escobar's pretty decent defensively....

I would assume that if we got him (and I’d love it too) that we’d just keep him at SS.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's what I hope too

Lots of rumors are circling around the Braves. So here’s my wild-eyed speculation: The Braves trade Escobar for Young and an arm, possibly Perkins, and then sign Furcal at the Winter Meetings. The Twins have been working on this deal since the start of the free agent period, but it’s complicated so they are just waiting to pull the trigger.

That’s the best possible scenario for why Gardy would shoot off his mouth. If it really doesn’t matter because the deal is just waiting for other things to fall into place before it’s finalized.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with ya CMath...

that would be a dream come true for me as well.

Imagine having our positional roster all set for the next 5-6 years. And I think we would. We have plenty of OF depth coming through. So as long as Valencia or Romero could make it at 3b by 2012, we’d be set.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Escobar for Young AND Perkins?

No thanks, that’s too much for me to be giving up for Escobar. Young straight up, maybe a prospect in there as well. I’d actually prefer Kelly Johnson to Yunel Escobar.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 4, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Johnson is available

At least according to Ken Rosenthal, whereas Escobar is only available if the Braves sign Furcal. So Johnson makes some sense for Young straight up. The reason why I mentioned throwing in Perkins for Escobar is I think he has much higher upside than Johnson and I care more about defense than most analysts. I think the Twins would be stronger up the middle with Casilla and Escobar than Johnson and Casilla.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for this

If we were to trade Delmon to Atlanta and they offered Kelly Johnson or Yunel Escobar, I’d choose Johnson in a heartbeat. Yes, a MI of Escobar-Casilla would be better defensively than Casilla-Johnson, but I’d peg the difference to be less than the difference between Escobar and Johnson offensively. I certainly would not put Escobar as more valuable to the point where I would throw in Perkins…

by Adam Peterson on Dec 5, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i also dont like gardy saying this, unless a trade is pending

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Dec 5, 2008 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best OF

Is Span young Cuddy.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 4, 2008 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

offensively yest

Defensively Gomez was one of the top 2 or 3 CF in the league. I also think Gomez is going to be a better hitter this year. He was wild last year but it was also his first full season of major league ball. He had an .800 OPS in September and I expect him to build on that. I’m not saying he’ll be that good for a full year but he did seem to relax a bit that last month and I think batting #9 he’ll continue to get better.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 4, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Span is no Chump in CF

and Is much better than Gomez at the plate. The Difference between Young offensively and Gomez is bigger than the difference in Defence

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 6, 2008 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather have Gomez than Young

Offensively, Young is better and has more upside. But defense counts too, as halfchest says.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kelly Johnson

Is another option and there have not been direct rumors with the Twins but there have been rumors of his availability. I’m still confident in Casilla’s ability to play SS as he played there in the minors. He easily has the arm and range however sometimes seems to have a bad glove from time to time that could be exposed at SS. Of the three (arm,range, glove) glove would be the easiest to work on and get better. Anyhow, could Kelly Johnson be had for one of Cuddy or Young? He’s a 2B who has hit .273 .356 .440 .796 in just under 3 major league seasons. I don’t know much about him defensively but he would have a great bat. Yes, I know he’s left handed but his splits aren’t awful.

vs. RHP

.265 .355 .449 .804

vs. LHP

.293 .358 .416 .775

So he drops significantly in power but is more likely to get at least a single against lefties just won’t get extra bases or BB’s as often.

He’s arb eligible beginning this year and with the Twins extra moola he could possibly be signed to an immediate 5 or 6 year deal to buy out those arb years and first few years of FA. Would Kelly Johnson cost more or less in players than Escobar? Any ideas?

What if they cost the same to get who would we rather have? I’d probably take Escobar myself but I’d have to find out more about both players.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 4, 2008 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Escobar...

given position, age, and salary (further away from arbitration).

But I’d do Delmon for Johnson as well. As hitters, they are pretty similar overall.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Which of course...

…could mean they’d be just as happy to trade Cuddyer. Gardy must have played a little poker sometime in his life.

by Johnny Safron on Dec 4, 2008 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I've heard he's a better bowler

Not a lot of bluffing involved. Just throw the frieking ball and knock down as many pins as you can. No strategy, no subtelty.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How would Punto help Gardy bowl?

I’m thinking doubles tennis…

by Adam Peterson on Dec 4, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Slides head first into the pins.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 6, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then perhaps...

…Gardy’s is trying to be devious about Gomez. I hear from someone who claims special insight that “top Twins execs” say it is “likely that Gomez will start the season in Rochester.”

by Johnny Safron on Dec 4, 2008 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now that's a smart thing to say...

since it doesn’t drive down the trade value of someone we’re apparently shopping. We’d be saying “we’re prepared to go into next year with Young in our OF” instead of “he’s not good enough to crack our OF, please offer us a trade”

by Adam Peterson on Dec 4, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have a full house!

…my impression of Gardy playing poker..

by Adam Peterson on Dec 4, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cut Cuddyer

I Dont See what everybody’s Love Fest over him is about.

The Twins Traded Bartlett and Garza for Delmon for a Reason….Give him another season to show his skills before we even whisper about trading him.

by Tony_O on Dec 4, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

cut him?

are you serious?

Cuddyer figures to be every bit as good as Delmon Young IMO over the next 2 seasons. It’s after that that’s the question.

by DJSkillz on Dec 4, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When i said Cut

I meant as it Get rid of him Somehow…Mainly via Trade…Put him in the package to acquire JJ Hardy

by Tony_O on Dec 4, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

tony i agree with you about getting rid of cuddyer, but not cutting him

i also am not a big fan of cuddy, his contract is bad, he is always hurt and swings at some of the worst pitches that i have seen

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Dec 5, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's better Tony

For a moment there I thought you were suggesting we just cut him out right.

by Piranah14 on Dec 4, 2008 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A couple of notes about the whole Johnson/escobar discussion

According to UZR
2B – Kelly Johnson (-18) ranked second to last in majors.
SS – Yunel Escobar (+32) ranked second in the majors.
(Escobar also ranked second in majors in Dewan’s +-, but I couldn’t find Johnson on there).

Johnson has a slight edge in OPS (795 to 766) and more advanced statisics put the edge even slighter wOBA (.346 to .347).

Also, Escobar is a shortstop, which makes his defensive contributions more valuable, and is something we are in need of.

The truth of the matter is that it isn’t even close, Kelly Johnson is nowhere near the player Escobar is and isn’t someone we should be targeting.

by lookatthosetwins on Dec 4, 2008 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wOBA

Those should read .346 to .337.

If you don’t know what wOBA is, read this article

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-joy-of-woba/

by lookatthosetwins on Dec 4, 2008 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good points

I couldn’t have said it better myself. There’s a reason why you have to look at the whole picture, not just raw OPS, when evaluating players. One more thing, Johnson is essentially a year older.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 4, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep...

I like Johnson too, but Escobar is definitely more valuable.

However, I’d love to have either one in our MI next year.

by DJSkillz on Dec 5, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All comes down to the gap

between offense and defense. What would be the difference between a Casilla-Johnson and an Escobar-Casilla defense up the middle. I put the difference between Johnson and Escobar, offensively, in 2008 at a total of 25-26 runs (details below). These numbers look beyond OPS to each play from the season and how it affected a team’s expected runs scored. The question is, does Escobar make up for it defensively, or when “upside” is considered? Perhaps. I’m still delving into the difference in batting expected runs between the two, but I suspect that 24 vs 3 GIDP might have a lot to do with it… In the end, perhaps it’s close, but I’d still peg the ultimate difference at 10+ runs, will know more once I get done with analysis of fielding throughout 2008.

Comparison of 2008 expected runs, relative to average expected runs across the entire league…you’ll see more of these numbers…
Johnson: +15.8 batting / +2.1 running = +17.9 runs
Escobar: -5.7 batting / -2.1 running = =7.8 runs

by Adam Peterson on Dec 5, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Putting Casilla at short doesn't make Johnson more valuable

Anyway, I’m not sure exactly where you got your numbers. Using wOBA and projecting over 600 PAs would put Johnson at about 8 runs above average and Escobar at about 3.

Defensively, Johnson is at least 10 runs below average, and escobar 15 above. Add in a position adjustment of 2 runs for playing short, and its about 18 to -2.

wOBA uses linear weights to determine the value of every action a batter can do. It also includes baserunning, but doesn’t do any postion or park factors. Obviously they played in the same park so the park factors wouldn’t make any difference.

by lookatthosetwins on Dec 5, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually I calculated the runs above average wrong

It would actually be Escobar – 24 runs above average, Johnson 13 below average. So it would be 27 to -5.

by lookatthosetwins on Dec 5, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree, we have to consider defense

and having to put Casilla at short would make the defensive gap a bit larger.

My numbers are based on an analysis of each and every play from the 2008 season, breaking down each plate appearance into components that are assigned (for offense) to either the batter or to one of the baserunners. Value of each component is assigned based on expected run value of the resulting situation. For example, suppose Span walks with no one out. He as assigned +0.41 runs, the difference in expected runs between no one on, no one out (0.52) and man on first, no one out (0.93).

Now suppose Casilla singles to RF. This PA is broken into two pieces, the single and Span advancing to third or staying on second. I assign Casilla additional expected runs based on the probability (over all teams, 2008 season) that a runner advances to third on a single to RF. Span the baserunner is assigned ER based on the difference, positive if he advances, negative if he stays on second.

Anyway, I’ll be posting more details regarding this analysis, I’m now working on fielding-pitching. I’d be happy to share results with any of you. My point is that based on numbers, the defensive gap would have to be at least 25.7 runs. The numbers you cite defensively appear to at least cancel out the difference offensively. I’ll see what my own analysis indicates, but using your defensive numbers Escobar would be the better option, especially when one considers upside, growth and service time. Where do your defensive numbers come from?

Bottom line, I’d be happy with either option, it’s probably closer than my “I’d take Johnson in a heartbeat” stance..

by Adam Peterson on Dec 6, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I used Dewan’s +/- to find plays above/below average. Then I multiplied by .753 to find runs above/below average. Defensive statistics can vary year to year, but Escobar was 2nd in the league in both +/- and in UZR, so I’d say it’s pretty accurate.

Ok, so you are using BRAA. I would agree that BRAA and WPA are good stats to tell how valuable someone was in a given year, the problem is that they aren’t usually as telling of a player’s true skill as wOBA, prOPS, or other context neutral statistics. As you said, a lot of it might be the 24 to 3 double play rate. Unless you believe that Johnson is just way clutchier than Escobar, I’d leave the offensive difference around 5, maybe 10 runs.

Anyway, it’s really interesting to me that the gap could be so large on two players who hit very similarly in a context neutral environment. I wouldn’t completely dismiss it as random chance, but I do think that the gap is much smaller than BRAA shows. Anyway, when you have your fielding analysis done… let me know.

by lookatthosetwins on Dec 6, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not really BRAA

but the concept is pretty much the same. Looking at the numbers, the GIDP accounts for much of the difference. I’ll have to do more digging to determine whether the 21 GIDP difference accounts for most or all of the batting ER difference. The rest? Perhaps Johnson was more “clutch” last year, we’d have to see…My numbers don’t yet break down based on situation, but it appears OPS was similar (Johnson 882, Escobar 880) with RISP and over a small sample, Escobar was much better RISP and two outs (936 vs 608). One other area other than “clutch” where my ER would show a difference over wOBA would be that it gives credit for “productive” outs. I.e., a ground out that advances a runner on 2nd will have more value than a strikeout.

Baserunning (especially caught stealing and outs on the base paths) is also a place where I see a difference, accounting for the 4.2 run gap on the base paths. Johnson was caught stealing 5 times (11 steals) and made 2 outs on tbe basepaths (OOBP). Escobar was also caught 5 times (2 steals), but made 9 OOBP.

I agree that these are not context neutral statistics and there are obvious limitations as a result. My gut tells me the true gap may be closer to 15 runs (including baserunning) at this point.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 7, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs