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Winter Meetings Primer, 2008

Not quite as high-profile as last year, but I'm getting a sense of something coming to a head.

Twins Needs

  • Third Base
  • Shortstop
  • Bullpen

This December it seems the off-season for Minnesota will roll not just on what our own club's initiatives are, but what moves other teams make.  Or don't.  Between the Twins losing out on Mike Lincoln earlier this last week and talks breaking down between the Twins and Casey Blake on Friday, we're not hearing too much about being proactive.  But you can read between the lines, and it's clear that the front office is ready to make this team better.

La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins aren't interested in chasing Rafael Furcal around the bidding war circle, because of the two reasons most of us could guess in his regard:  injuries and money.  He also says "Among third basemen, I have not heard the names Joe Crede or Kevin Kouzmanoff mentioned."  I'm glad to hear there's no (public) interest in Kouzmanoff; the lack of interest in Crede doesn't surprise me, but I think on a one-year deal he could pay off big for somebody this season.

As for the guys we've heard about this week...

Mike Lincoln - With Minnesota being "barely outbid" by the Reds, the 'pen's going to need to be bolstered in some other way.  He'll be 34 next season, and posts some decent strikeout numbers to go with a decent amount of walks, but after a pair of Tommy John surgeries in his history (and not pitching in the majors since '04), this reeks of another attempt to get better by squeezing the last drops of use from a veteran.  He would have been a smart gamble, sure, but A) he wasn't so good that the Twins can't find his kind of effectiveness somewhere else and B) the Twins didn't budge on their offer for a guy who would have been lucky to pitch 70 innings next summer.

Casey Blake - I'm not opposed to the Twins signing Blake, but I'm opposed to them signing him to a three-year deal.  So, essentially, good for them for refusing to bog down their financial future by gambling on today.  A three-year deal would have seen Casey turning 39 in August of his final season, and for as decent as he's been, that's a little absurd to expect any organization to take that sort of hit...unless it's the Yankees or Red Sox, and they're fine right now.  Mike Schmidt hit .249/.337/.405 in his age-38 season.  Wade Boggs hit .311/.389/.389.  George Brett hit .255/.327/.402.  Pie Traynor was 2-for-15.  Of course, all four of those men are in the Hall of Fame...but if most Hall of Fame third basemen can't hit well at 38, why does Casey Blake expect us to pay him at that age?  Hell, the Dodgers won't even do it.  Right, Dodgers?

Moving on from those two guys, there's a plethora of names that are being bantered about.  Garrett Atkins and Adrian Beltre are back in the conversation, Yunel Escobar is worth researching, and LEN III brings up Jason Donald as well as Huston StreetNick Punto is drawing interest from more organizations than the Twins, Delmon Young is the topic of a few phone calls from teams looking for a young corner outfielder, and apparently Ron Gardenhire likes the trio of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer in the outfield.  A lot of names and rumor-mongering, but no answers yet.

Last winter, I feel like things were a bit more focused.  Torii Hunter had already signed with the Angels, and while moving Johan Santana was a massive and inevitable event, we knew that would likely be the one meaningful move made in regards to the big league club for the next season.  This year it's a bit more obvious that the Twins are waiting for the stars to align a bit, and that's in regards to a number of things:  how they solve third base, who they chose to start at short, and if they can find a veteran reliever without chopping off a leg.  There's a real sense that the Twins are willing to make a move to land a legitimate player on the left side of the infield, and adding legitimate (see:  established) players in the off-season isn't a regular occurance.

Keep checking back as the Winter Meetings roll on tomorrow, we'll have regular updates.

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would this be = value

D Young to the Phillies for Jason Donald and either Chad Durbin or Ryan Madson? We could throw in a prospect to balance this out if need be.

by doofus on Dec 7, 2008 11:40 PM EST reply actions  

AA

He’s only played to AA and the Twins need a SS for next year. This team is too talented to waste a year and have our left side being manned by role players only. I’m ok with Harris/Tolbert/Buscher manning one of the two positions but the Twins really have to make a move to bring in one legit guy at SS or 3B. I think Jason Donald looks awesome but is not the immediate help the Twins should be looking for if they were to deal a guy like Delmon Young. The only way the Twins should consider dealing any of Young/Gomez/Span is if they get a shot at a major league ready 3B/SS/2B talent that will immediately improve the team. Cuddyer could be sent for prospects that are a year or two away maybe just to get rid of his salary and give the Twins a chance to go after a guy like Furcal.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 8, 2008 2:44 AM EST up reply actions  

3B

Speaking of having the Twins wait until other teams make a move what if the Red Sox sign Texiera? Do you think there’s a chance they try to get rid of Lowell? I don’t see what use they have for him and he’s owed 24 million over the next two years. I really think the Twins could work out something and even get the Red Sox to take on a bit of his salary without giving up too much. Especially with Lowell coming off of an injury. If we could get him for say 8 mil a year and give up one of our almost major league ready pitchers(Mulvey, Swarzak, Duensing) it might be a worthwhile risk.

I haven’t heard his name from any legitimate source mentioned with the Twins but it would be like getting a better version of Casey Blake and he’s already only in the two year contract that the Twins wanted. I know he had some injuries this year but to call him injury prone would be off as he’s played over 150 games/year from 2003-2007.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 8, 2008 2:39 AM EST reply actions  

I'm not a fan of that idea.

I like Lowell, but trading prospects for a 35-year old third baseman who would still eb owed a lot of money (even after the Sox ideally pick up part of the tab) doesn’t strike me as the best option. And if the Sox would pick up part of the money owed to Lowell, they’d definitely be wanting more than a single prospect. For me, it’s just too expensive for a guy his age.

by Jesse on Dec 8, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Money for prospects

I could see sending a fringe-type prospect like, say, Drew Butera to the Sox for Lowell and taking on his salary. It would essentially be like a free-agent signing.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 8, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Makes sense in theory, if the Sox are looking to dump salary.

I’d still have to question whether the Twins would take on all that money, no matter what age the guy is.

by Jesse on Dec 8, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Depends on

What kind of SS we get. If the Twins can get a guy who is going to be getting near minimum the next two years then it becomes realistic for them to get a good deal on an salary dump player like Lowell or possibly even Tejada. If the Twins decide to get Furcal, Hudson, or Cabrera (all unlikely) then it becomes pretty unrealistic for the Twins to take on a big salary for 3B as well.

I know both of those names haven’t been mentioned with the Twins but I’m just throwing out some alternative ideas that might not be bad ideas. The Tejada article I just saw today and is intriguing as he could be one year stopgap for us at 3B if he was willing to play there. Especially as it sounds like the Astros are just trying to dump him. He could likely be had for much less than Beltre and would cost less $ as it sounds like the Astros would like to eat his salary. I know he had a down year last year but he still hit a lot of doubles and played in most of their games, could be a great guy to target for a comeback year. I would think if he were to move to 3B he could provide great defense there as he’s used to SS a much harder defensive position. Ok this rambled on a bit more than I planned. Basically if the Twins could get him for a mid level prospect or two and get some of his salary eaten I’d be all for him as a bridge to Valencia/Hughes. I wouldn’t want him as a SS though as we don’t need a stopgap there unless the Twins make a move to get a SS prospect like Donald as well.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 8, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The Donald

The fact that the Phillies are looking at signing Punto indicates to me that they don’t think Donald is ready.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 8, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

still

we could go and get Blake for the here and now or we still have pitching + to trade.

by doofus on Dec 8, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Well Feliz and Ultey are hurt right now

so they could just be looking for a utility INF.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 8, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

This much is true.

And with a couple of their IF’s down, they’ll probably want to hang onto Donald as well.

by Jesse on Dec 8, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Woudl Harris make sense?

as a 3B / utility IF for Philly? Perhaps a bullpen arm like Madson (although Harris may not be enough) in return?

by Adam Peterson on Dec 8, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Donald

has a chance to be really good to get those 2 guys would require Slowey most likely, Or Revere and Perkins/Blackburn. Value wise anyway.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 8, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Small point...

but Blake would actually turn 38, not 39, in the final month of the last year of a 3-year deal. He’d be 37 for the majority of that season.

Age really isn’t a big concern to me, especially considering that I think he’d be a great bench bat for the 3rd year of the contract anyway. And $6M for 1 year is worth that to get him to me.

by DJSkillz on Dec 8, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

Must have been my California math.

But I think the point remains. Six mil doesn’t seem like a great deal of money, but I’d still rather be allocating that money to the group of younger players who will need raises on the club. That much time, that much money, still doesn’t do me for C-Blake. Which is what I’d call him.

by Jesse on Dec 8, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Why not a bonus?

If our last offer to Blake was truly 2 years $12M with a team option, why not do the same with a $3-4M signing bonus? Without a bonus, I’d be willing to go a little higher than $6M per, up to perhaps $7M or $8M over two years. Moving the additional cash to a bonus might give the flexibility to decline the option year and allow the cash to be reallocated to the younger guys, which Blake still gets $16M+ guaranteed. Really, from Blake’s standpoint, is there a downside to a 2 year $12M plus $4M bonus, compared to 3yrs/$16M? It would actually seem preferable, as it opens Blake up to additional money coming in the third year, just not guaranteed to be from Minnesota.

by Adam Peterson on Dec 8, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

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