Twinkie Town: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: World Soccer Digest for Soccer Fans!

2009 Twins and Beyond

With the offseason in full swing with the Winter Meetings Here are my thoughts on the team and what they are doing to improve.  As the winter unfolds I see more opportunities for the Twins as Chicago dumps salary in trades and retools, Cleveland hasn’t done much, Detroit just signed Everett to be their SS next year.  The Twins have a huge opportunity for next year and beyond. This piece was written with the future in mind as well as the present.

 

The Twins have cost control going for them.  All or their stars are signed long term to flat contracts, or frontloaded contracts.  The only are where the Twins could see their payroll spiking up over the next few years is Starting Pitching.  The Twins should be smart enough to sign any or all of Slowey, Baker, and or Liriano to 3-4 year contracts to give the players security and the team cost certainty.  Same with Kubel.  As the OF gets more expensive with experience, We will have a new wave of OF’s ready to contribute with Revere, Hicks, Morales, Martin, Parmelee, and more.  In addition to that the Twins have a new publicly funded stadium with more revenue streams readily available come 2010 I said all of that to say this.  The Twins are poised to be able to do whatever they want to do this offseason.  They Should have at least 20-25 million available for either a 3b or SS and a reliever and excess OF and pitching to trade.  Do I expect them to spend all of that ….NO…

 

With our available resources, I have to wonder why not go after Furcal.  It’s ok to overpay for a player once in a while.  The main objective is not to be handcuffed by that player.  We are set to be millions under budget for the foreseeable future.  Why not offer Furcal a 4 year 10-11million contract or a 3 year 36-37 million deal.  It makes sense to plug some of our holes with impact players.  Furcal is a good example in this depressed market.

 

On a smaller scale there is Casey Blake:  I agree that Casey Blake should be a 2 year plus option contract.  But, the market from the beginning was a 3 year deal.  In this depressed market, why not a 2 year 7 million deal with an option or a 500k to 1 million buyout.  That would be favorable to a 17 million 3 year deal Twinsgeek agrees with me to some extent on this.  If Casey Blake is the desired results for Twins management then losing Blake for 3 years and 17 million the Dodgers are offering is no excuse.

 

Punto:  I can see us resigning him in the 3 year 10-12 million range.

 

Relief pitching isn’t as bad as it seems the Twins have Bonser, Humber, and Swarzak (who I believe is a real sleeper to do well in the pen next year) to compete for spots in the pen after Nathan, Guerrier, Crain, Breslow, Mirjales.  In my mind I would like to see a proven setup man for the bridge to Nathan.  But which relievers are going to be a guarantee?    If the Phillies include Madsen with Donald for Young then great that would be close to a guarantee. I love the idea of trading Young for Donald and Madsen.  I would even include either Tolbert or Harris in the trade so Philadelphia can have their 2b insurance next year. 

 

Why do I like this trade idea?  This trade would give us a solid bullpen.! And look at what it does to our options.  We will have some serious prospects ready in the next year for the IF Hughes, Valencia, DONALD, Tolleson, and maybe Plouffe .  This allows us to get a one year player to hold 3b if need be.  All of a sudden a Ty Wigginton salary dump or better yet a Beltre acquisition seems good enough for next year along with resigning Punto for SS.

 

Now I am not a fan of trading Young.  I don’t see why we would even think of moving him or any OF until next summer.  Young has the potential to be the kind of bat (power hitting RH) that we are looking for.  I guess the Twins brass is fine with Kubel being able to go back to the OF in LF or RF if necessary and a roving DH if there is an injury.  I guess the “roving”  DH would be Harris or Buscher if we acquire a SS or 3B.  Trading Young also gives us 2 CF in Gomez and Span and allow us the option of keeping Pridie or at some point next year Martin as a backup OF. 

 

There are obviously other options to consider….Atkins for 2 years at 3b, Kouzmanoff, JJ. Hardy, Yunel Escobar……and the list goes on….

For note on Twinsgeek refer to last nights podcast with Seth.

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

If Venezuela is an indication...

…Hughes was playing exclusively in LF for the last 3-4 weeks. Yesterday, Tolbert was at third in one game and DH in the other.

by roger13 on Dec 9, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pet peeve

Nice post, but I have one comment: By definition, “overpaying” is a bad thing. The front office is supposed to make their estimate of the distribution of the player’s value, given all the relevant variables such as ballpark, role on team, clubhouse presence, free agent pool, etc., then they adjust for risk aversion and in the end they come up with a salary range. If they pay more than that range, then they are (or expect to be) losing on the deal (conditional on all the available information and evaluation techniques used). Otherwise they’ve misconstructed their cost-benefit analysis.

by PhoenixV on Dec 9, 2008 9:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

In theory, yes

But in practice, the options are often limited. So it is possible to overpay by market standards and get the required value for your dollar (or talent) by your own standards. Some players are worth more to the Twins than the market might dictate because of other variables, such as system strength at a position and team make-up. I suppose you alluded to this with your proviso “all the relevant variables”. I think that was what the writer implied when he used the term “overpay”. I.e. it is sometimes OK to overpay by the market’s standards in order to get what you need.

This is my criticism of the Twins. They wait for the market to dictate what guys will cost before they decide what guys they want, apparently in fear of overpaying by market standards. As a result, by the time the market is determined, all the good players are gone and the Twins are left with Lamb, Cirillo, Sierra, White, et al.

Contrast this to the A’s pursuit of Matt Holliday. They determined that they needed a right handed power hitter first and foremost and they went out and got him long in advance of knowing what the market dictated for that player. They probably overpaid for him (especially when you take his home field into account). But he is the impact right handed bat they needed, so who really cares if they gave up one extra prospect with a 10% chance of making an impact in 2010?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 10, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the

A’s overpaid at all I think in fact they got him pretty cheap.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 10, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Definitions

What are “market standards”? No team has the same valuation of a player, not least because of different needs. These particular needs must enter into each team’s cost-benefit analysis. If you by market standards mean the average of the price which the other teams would pay for a given player, then yes, it makes sense for some teams with certain needs to “overpay”, but I still think it’s a bad term.

Hence, I would still contend that if you think the A’s made a good deal when acquiring Holliday, you can’t say they overpaid for him. Maybe you think they paid a steeper price than most other teams would do, but that is a pretty empty statement, since – as you say yourself – the A’s are in their own unique situation (like the other 29 teams).

I think we agree, except in terminology. (Although I also tend to think that Holliday came pretty cheap.)

by PhoenixV on Dec 10, 2008 1:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What are "market standards"?

It’s the market value for a player in a certain class. For example, Jeremy Affeldt signed for 2 years/$8 million. That would seem to be the market, then for quality left-handed relievers on the free agent market. We don’t know if the A’s got him cheap relative to what other teams might have sent the Rockies. Perhaps by being aggressive, they did indeed get him cheap. Perhaps the Phillies would have sent more players if they had been as aggressive as the A’s. Perhaps not. My sense is they overpaid for him slightly. But I’m not a huge Holliday fan because of his home/away splits.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 10, 2008 6:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Overpaying

What the Yankees just gave Sabathia…160 million is overpaying and a bad thing. What the Twins could have offered Blake a million dollar buyout to go with the 2 year 14 million contract not a bad thing. (not sure Blake would still accept, but I didn’t see that the Twins offered a third year option) (also they did up their offer from 6 million to 7 which wasn’t known at the time I wrote this) (remember we thought the market would be a 3 year 7-8 million for Blake). The Twins would be overpaying a little based on market. But we would have a power RH bat in the lineup.

We have the need for either a SS or 3B or now a 2B to give us more options. We have tons of resources to go and get them. Everyone else is locked up for a while or replacements will be on the way. We can afford to plug the whole and go out and get a reliever too and still have money left over for a midseason aquisition if need be.

by doofus on Dec 10, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

YOU might think they “overpaid” (i.e. they will never get this muh value out of him, all things considered). And I’m not arguing against that general idea. But if a player signs with a team and that team is happy even though they think they “overpaid”, then something is wrong in their cost-benefit analysis, per definition. That’s all I’m saying.

by PhoenixV on Dec 10, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sign Furcal, trade for Beltre

That to me is what the Twins ought to do. I know, I know it won’t happen. Honestly though, I feel a couple of moves like this is the perfect balance for the Twins between going for it NOW and keeping the future in check. We would have a high payroll for this year and Beltre would be coming off the books next year. I assume Furcal would be about 12 million per year as would Beltre. This gives us an amazing defensive infield and helps the lineup immensely.

Span
Furcal
Mauer
Morneau
Beltre
Kubel/Cuddy
Young/Cuddy
Casilla
Gomez

If we want to make this more affordable/realistic you could switch in David Eckstein for Furcal and we still look pretty good on paper. Then again so did the 2008 Tigers.

With players like Mauer/Morneau and our pitching rotation the Twins really need to just go for it one of these years and with our payroll flexibility and the expected availability of Beltre I just think the Twins need to take a shot. It all comes down to the cost of Beltre. I think if we packaged one of Blackburn/Perkins along with a top prospect such as Angel Morales or Tyler Robertson and a good replacement for the M’s to use this year like Buscher/Macri/Harris. I would not be willing to give up baker/slowey/liriano obviously but I don’t expect them to take Blackburn/Perkins and a couple of filler players. I think it will take a top 10 prospect to go with the pitcher to get it done.

So yah, that’s my semi realistic dream moves for the Twins this offseason.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 10, 2008 2:10 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Furcal is overrated

IMO I wouldn’t give him over 3 years. He’s good he’s just not game changer to me.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Dec 10, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

TT is an SB Nation blog of, by and for the fans. We strive to be the best Minnesota Twins blog by providing quality content and analysis, as well as daily news and notes on the team. We hope you'll make Twinkie Town your home for all things Twins!
Start posting about the Twins »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Organization Review (Relief Pitchers)
Small
On Roy, Ramos, and RISK

Recent FanPosts

Small
Josh Johnson
Small
Anybody want to talk revenues?
Joel87bw5_small
Signing up for the Minors
Small
Roy, Ramos, and RISK, Part II
Small
30 Cents on the Dollar = 2B Indifference
P1060527_small
New Uni Thoughts
Small
Minor League Report...November 14, 2009
Pose_small
Prediction Time (My Guess at 2010 Organizational teams)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Twinkie Town On Twitter

SPONSORS


Editor-In-Chief

Twinkietown_small Jesse

Senior Writer

Hrbek_small Jon Marthaler

The_jet_small cmathewson

Gladdentwins_small Adam Peterson

Hosken_powell_autograph_small RandBall's Stu