FanPost

PECOTA foreses 74-88

I won't show everything, since it's subscription, but follow over the jump for some of the highlights.

Here's PECOTA's weighted mean projection:

RS: 709
RA: 779

Playing time is distributed how you would expect, with the assumption that Gomez will get 60% of the CF time and Harris will be the more-or-less regular 2B.

They anticipate Baker, Bonser and Slowey to have the most innings, with Liriano at 110 IP and the 5th spot (and Liriano's missing innings) going to a combo of Blackburn, Perkins, Humber, and Mulvey.  This was done before they Hernandez signing, obviously.  

They anticipate negative VORP from CF (Gomez and Span (in a little time) are both below replacement, and Pridie (in a little time) is about exactly replacement).  They also anticipate negative VORP from SS (Everett, who can't hit).  

It's a pretty pessimistic offensive projection, really, with Lamb barely over replacement, significant regression from Morneau, and overall less runs than last season's offensive catastrophe.  I trust PECOTA, and don't think this is going to be a good run scoring team, but even I would take the over on 709 RS.  

Pitching not too many surprises--Baker, Bonser, and Slowey all in the mid-4s range for ERA, Liriano better but low innings, and the rest of the starters arrayed around replacement level.

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