Projecting Carlos Gomez
by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2008 7:04 PM EST
in News
36 comments
Position players don't officially report to spring training until Saturday, but already my official beat writer Phil Miller, whom I've praised since early last year, is buzzing about Carlos Gomez. He's not the only one who's praising Gomez in the early going.
Distilling a few of the observations:
- Gomez is fast: According to former Mets prospect and now teammate Philip (Don't call me Phil) Humber, "he might not accelerate as fast as Jose Reyes, but I bet he would beat him in a race from first to third."
- Gomez is strong: When he shook Gardenhire's hand, Gardy nearly collapsed in pain.
- Gomez has great bat speed and a short stroke: He has spent three consecutive batting practices whistling ropes all over the field. Today he lined a bullet over the right center wall that, "never got 20 feet off the ground" according to Miller.
- Gomez has a very strong arm: According to reports, it's in Delmon Young territory, which would give the Twins the best set of outfield arms in the majors, if Gomez wins the starting job.
But I also think Gomez has good numbers the last two years, considering the injury-shortened season last year.
So the question is, what do you all expect out of Gomez? Please take the poll and leave comments.
0 recs |
36 comments
Email
Print
Comments
good stuff Cmath...
I mean, seriously, I consider Delmon and Cuddy to have top 10 arms in the majors at WORST. If you add Gomez to that, you could be talking all-time great arms for an OF. That is unbelievable.
by djskilbr on Feb 21, 2008 7:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gomez vs. Ellsbury
It's like we've all heard before Ellsbury wowed and is a sure thing to be at least an average to above average player. However I don't see that. He had a good month I think he is no more of a sure thing than Gomez PLUS he's two years older. I'm more and more happy with Gomez the more I learn about him.
I think the splits showing his June last year is really telling that he is ready for the Majors and was rusty after coming back from being injured .299/.351/.403. I think the kid's gonna be an absolute stud, hopefully sooner than later.
by halfchest on Feb 21, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gomez vs. Ellsbury
by bigfume on Feb 22, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True but
I should have laid out what I was saying better. Basically I don't think Ellsbury is the sure thing that many seem to think he is. He had a good month in the majors and while that definitely bodes well for him by no means is he a sure thing to be a good major league player.
From everything I've read it sounds like Gomez is going to be a great defender and few would contest that. On top of that he has shown ability to hit for average and has great base stealing ability. In 2006 he had a .350 obp(430 atbats) at AA and in 2007 he had .363 obp in AAA (140 at bats) before being forced into the majors because of injury. Even there he seemed to be getting into a decent groove by hitting .299/.351/.403 in June before having an awful four game set and getting injured in July.
If he can get onbase at a .350 clip and get around the bases Jose Reyes style. That alone will make this guy a great leadoff hitter for the Twins. Then there's the common belief that he will develop power because of his large frame and you've got a guy with serious superstar potential.
I guess what I'm saying is that I like the idea of taking a chance on this guy rather than Ellsbury. Normally I'm not too much of a homer and I was pissed when they first made this trade but the more I learn about Gomez the more excited I get at his potential. The key word is potential. Will he fulfill that potential? I sure hope so. To clarify, I voted for the middle choice make the team with flashes of brilliance and some slumps.
by halfchest on Feb 22, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury=overrated
Gomex is faster, younger, stronger, and a much better defender than Ellsbury. He's not the OBP guy Ellbury is yet, but he is better in every other phase of the game. He's underrated because he injured his wrist in July and never fully recovered.
by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2008 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tp elaborate
PA:403 AB:363 H:108 2B:14 3B:5 HR:2 BB:32 SO:47 .298/.359/.380/739
This is what Gomez did as a 21 year old in AAA last year:
PA:157 AB:140 H:40 2B:8 3B:2 HR:2 BB:15 SO:23 .286/.363/.414/777
Most scouts I read say Gomez has better tools in everything except contact and he's two years younger.
Ellsbury is a notch above Jason Tyner. Gomez has a chance to become a star in this league. For a team looking to the future, to me the choice is clear.
by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great to finally see...
by roger on Feb 25, 2008 7:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 26, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think that is a little low...
But I do think Gomez' ceiling is higher. Gomez has a chance to be Carl Crawford from CF (that's the comparison I like best) and that beats the heck out of Jose Reyes-lite to me if he can reach that.
by djskilbr on Feb 26, 2008 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ellsbury vs. Tyner
I think I reacted similarly when someone compared Gomez to Span -- there's a significant enough difference in power to render such comparisons moot at the moment.
by spycake on Feb 26, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
great point...
by djskilbr on Feb 27, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't Wait...
I'm more high on Guerra and Gomez...
I really can't wait to see Gomez and I really hope he wins the job. I'd rather watch him grow than Span or Pridie take the spot.
From all the talk about his speed and glove and the bat potential, this guy sounds like he'll be a very good player in the coming years.
by Twins Territory on Feb 21, 2008 8:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gomez is strong
I'm not sure what kind of joke comment this is masquerading in what appears to be a serious diary entry?
With this logic "Gardenhire says so", Nick Punto is a major league starter and Michael Cuddyer is a major league center fielder.
I know this will sound harsher than I mean it to sound Cmath, but c'mon, that line is useless for any type of assessment.
On another note: speed from first to third is great, but it isn't as important to a center fielder, or a base stealer, as getting the quick reaction and the quick first few steps. (although I realize that no one is saying he isn't quick as well, just that Humber was saying he might not be as quick as Reyes. That still leaves plenty of room for sufficient "quickness")
by montanatwinsfan on Feb 21, 2008 8:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rebuttal
I guess being able to hit a baseball 420 feet without more altitude than 20 feet does not constitute strong. I've hit a baseball that far, with 200 foot altitude to straight away left field, when I could bench press twice my weight.
If you want to know if he's fast from a stolen base perspective, look up his SB/CS numbers. The Baseball Cube is down, but looking at his stats from MiLB last year, he had 19 SB in 23 attempts in just 153 AAA ABs. Projecting that out over 500 ABs, that's 62 SBs and 12 CS. When Baseball Cube is back up, I can show that that is not out of the ordinary for him. I seem to reacal something like 80 SBs in his 20 year old season at AA.
But don't trust me, watch the video.
by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gomez's SB stats
In 2006 as a 20 year old in Double-A: 40 SB's, 9 CS
In 2007 as a 21 year olid in AAA, A+ & MLB: 31 SB's, 7 CS
by Joshs Thoughts on Feb 21, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
by cmathewson on Feb 21, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Still very impressive though...
I firmly believe Gomez will be a 60+ sb guy annually if the Twins let him. He's that fast by all reports.
by djskilbr on Feb 22, 2008 12:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gomez
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/media/player/mp_tpl_silverlight.jsp?w_id=578141&w=mms%3A//a1503.v108 692.c10869.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1503/10869/v0001/mlb.download.akamai.com/10869/2007/open/tp/archi ve06/061507_nynnya_gomez_def_tp_350.wmv&pid=mlb_tp&gid=2007/06/15/nynmlb-nyamlb-1&mid=20 0706152028762&cid=mlb&fid=mlb_tp400&v=2&mType=w&urlstr=&mUrl=&type=v_fre e&_mp=1 - Gomez Leaping Catch And Throw (Delmon's got NOTHING on Gomez's cannon).
by MetsFan on Feb 22, 2008 1:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few more...
by MetsFan on Feb 22, 2008 1:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The most
A> Easily noticed, that's a strong arm. I don't think it's Ichiro or Vlad ridiculous, but it is very strong, strong enough to make a great throw from the deepest part of the field. Very accurate on that throw too.
B> Yup. He's fast.
C> I was impressed by his jumps on all the balls. In the defensive plays cmath linked too, he has already running at full steam by the time the camera jumped over away from the hitter. His courses were very good on all the plays, having to make no inefficient directional changes or course correction on his way to the ball. It was easiest to see this in the first video linked by MetsFan. In the replay, you could see Gomez as the ball was struck. His reaction was immediate and his first step was completely correct, even on a relatively tough play with the ball headed straight at him (can be tough to gauge distance). Couple the good first movement was clearly fantastic closing speed and you have a lot of ground covered.
And whew, that stolen base wasn't close, that was a fastball and he would have beat any throw by a mile.
Impressive stuff. I still think he would be best served to spend some time in AAA for polish on the bat, but even if he can only hit a little, and it looks like he ought to be able to hit at least some, he can be a pretty decent center fielder.
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2008 1:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Holy crow
That replay of him doubling Matsui off second was incredible. That was a strike. From the FENCE.
by Neil on Feb 22, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see it in game situations
by Adam Peterson on Feb 22, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reasonable expectations
Melky Cabrera has held down CF in New York the past two seasons with OPS+ figures of 95 and 89, with solid defense but so-so baserunning. Coco Crisp held the job in Boston (until the emergence of Ellsbury) with 77 and 83 OPS+ figures, with good range and baserunning but not much of an outfield arm, so I'm told.
I believe Gomez' PECOTA projection is .249/.302/.358. As pessimistic as that seems, on the Twins last year that would have been in the neighborhood of a 77-80 OPS+.
Add in strong all-around defense and baserunning, and he's probably better than Crisp, and respectably close to Cabrera and a league-average CF (~98 OPS+, I think). And like I said, that's a pessimistic projection that almost concludes he's made little or no progress as a hitter since 2006 (given the data last year was mostly washed out).
by spycake on Feb 22, 2008 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Forget the projections
Whatever weaknesses he has, he will work to improve on them. The only thing I worry about is his strike-out rate (20% in '06 at AA).
A kid that can play defense like that and run the bases is surely capable of learning on the job when it comes to hitting.
I say play him now. The Twins need that shot in the arm of a young up and coming kid bringing excitement to the field every day.
by Old Twins Cap on Feb 22, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Main Weakness
Some scouts indicate that his swing is often too heavy on the wrists, wondering if he'll ever add the kind of power the most optimistic people are projecting. But I think that's more an area where proper coaching will fix.
by MetsFan on Feb 22, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Torii could...
I think Vavra will be able to do a nice job of helping Gomez find his eye, and once he gets to know the major league pitchers I'm sure he'll get comfortable. One thing I've heard about him so far is that he's extremely confident, which I think will be a plus for him in terms of stepping in against MLB quality pitching. We'll see how he adjusts, he is still extremely young.
by Neil on Feb 22, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 22, 2008 6:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by caseintheface on Feb 22, 2008 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 23, 2008 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seasoning
by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2008 8:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like
For Priddie, I'd just like too see if he can provide adequate center field duty. I think he's a step above Jason Tyner in all respects, which who was a livable stopgap center fielder. I think Pridie has a shot to have a decent glove and acceptable bat for a starting center fielder. Than Gomez can come in in August or September, get his feet really wet out there, and start in 2009.
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 23, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand the logic
And I don't think they have that much to learn down there. I'm not all that big on holding guys back to work on stuff against inferior competition. I thought Bartlett should have just worked on stuff at the major league level in 2006, for example. I think both these guys are about at that level, where they can learn just as much working with Joe Vavra and Jerry White, using major league facilities and hanging with their teammates than they could down in AAA hitting crappy pitching with crappy facilities.
Whoever wins the starting job will have to develop at the major league level. Considering this, I think you just go with the kid who wins the job in spring training and let that guy develop up here. I think that guy will be Gomez.
And I think you develop Pridie into the fourth outfielder up here as well. He'll get about 200 ABs minimum spelling Gomez more often than Young or Cuddyer. And he'll have to learn to be primarily a bench player. Injuries happen. You want to protect Gomez against certain pitchers. You especially want to pinch hit for him against closers. You want to save guys legs on the turf. Stuff like that.
by cmathewson on Feb 23, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
by AdamOnFirst on Feb 24, 2008 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
In Gomez's case, he showed a lot of evidence last year that he had turned a corner. He had a lot of bad luck with injuries and riding the pine under Willie Randolph. If you make allowances for those variables, I think he had a better year than his numbers suggest.
Then you watch the video and see what a natural he is, especially in the field. Everything he does looks easy. He's still young and raw. But I think Pridie and Span are even more raw. They've never played a game in the majors whereas Gomez not only played solidly for a month before his injury, he held his own at the plate and excelled in the field at three positions. That more than anything leads me to believe that he's more ready to play everyday in the majors than the other two.
Some might say you should keep him in AAA for a couple of months and gain an extra year of serfdom. But I don't worry about that so much. Just put him out there every day and let him show what he can do.
by cmathewson on Feb 24, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
carlos gomez is ready
by MauerPower07 on Feb 22, 2008 10:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
