Joe Posnanski - On Ten Years of Draft Results

by Jon Marthaler on Feb 6, 2008 5:00 PM EST Comment 7 comments

On his blog, Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski takes a look at how MLB teams have done with their first-round picks over the last ten years.

I encourage you to check it out, but if you don't feel like scrolling through the whole thing, here's the entry for the Twins:

Twins
Stars: Joe Mauer.
Impact playes: None.
Value: None.
Reached Big Leagues: Adam Johnson.
Too soon: Glen Perkins, Matt Garza.

Comment: Justin Morneau was a 3rd round pick. The Twins run of success was more or less predicated on drafting Torii Hunter in the first round in 1993 (Torii -- a cousin of Choo Freeman!), getting Johan Sanatana as a Rule V pick and the ridiculous A.J. for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser trade. Everybody seems to think the Twins will really struggle this year, and maybe they will, but I'm curious how good Liriano will be coming off injury.

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I guess

I guess Cuddyer doesn't count, he was a first rounder in 97.

Not too good out of the Twins though. And moneyball's drafting strategy seems to have some support in that list, considering the A's have had 8 stars or impact players from the first round in the last 10 years.

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 6, 2008 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Moneyball, but not just the numbers portion

There were two interesting aspects of the Moneyball plan. First was the focus on OBP and stats, but probably more important to first round drafting success is the focus on college players as opposed to high schoolers. We've focused almost exclusively on high schoolers while Oakland (I believe) has focused on college players.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 7, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Yeah, college guys. Guys who scouts don't always describe as "toolsy".

That's linda why the term "toolsy" makes me nervous. It sounds like it might be an excuse to me, like, well, he mauy not be able to hit or field well, but he's got tools.

Probably just a personal problem.

Anyways, I haven't read Moneyball (I know, I know, it's on my list) so I don't know what the theory is for drafting pitchers (I've heard a lot of the stuff on drafting hitters). A huge chunk of Oakland's draft successes have been pitchers. So what's up with that? Does moneyball deal with pitchers as much, or are they just scouting them really well or what?

At any rate, I wish we went college players a little more often than we do...

Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

by AdamOnFirst on Feb 8, 2008 6:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

We have, just on the second round...

...as proven by Scott Baker, Jesse Crain, and Kevin Slowey...to name three in the last few years. Toss in Bryan Duensing and Ryan Mullins, who were high picks, and you have five excellent prospects taken in the first few rounds.

by roger on Feb 8, 2008 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True

I should have said we've focused our first round picks on HS hitters, in general. "Tools"

by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

College Pitchers Only

That's about what the Moneyball strategy was for pitchers, from what I remember. There was an interesting description of Beane's reaction to his entire scouting team wanting to draft Bonderman as a HS.

by Adam Peterson on Feb 8, 2008 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm torn

On the one hand, I want to congratulate the organization for its fine record in drafting between the first and 12th round. On the other hand, I want to chastise them for wasting first-round picks and first-round money on guys who had one tool in high school (Garbe, Span, Moses, Sanchez, Parmelee).

It reminds me of what Denny Green said after the team had to cut a first rounder out of camp (name of Underwood). "Well, that was an extra pick, so it doesn't matter." Someone did an analysis of all the players the Queens could have taken with that pick and five or six ended up in the Pro Bowl.

The first round is often a team's only chance to get A prospects. I don't understand wasting them on one-tool players who might or might not develop into good baseball players. To me, that's a very risky strategy, especially for a fiscally conservative organization. I would rather pay a little more up front for a good college talent in the first round than risk getting nothing for a more modest high schooler.

And some of those guys actually signed for market-rate bonuses. Garbe signed for $2.5 million I believe. That's $2.5 million down the toilet for an organization that won't let baseballs go into batting practice unless the cover is about to come off.

There are plenty of rounds to go after the toolsey players from less prominent baseball country, such as Joe Benson. Don't use the first round for those kinds of players.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2008 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs