The Hope and Confidence of Juan Rincon
by Jesse on Mar 17, 2008 9:32 AM EDT
in News
8 comments
The life span of a right-handed relief pitcher can be fleeting. Entering what will be his eighth season with the Twins, can the former set-up man have a career after 2008?
Last summer saw the meltdown of a pitcher who had been one of baseball's finest set-up men over the prior three seasons. Coming into the middle of June, Juan Rincon had been a bit more shaky than what we'd been accustomed to, but he'd been effective nevertheless. On June 14 he pitched an inning against Atlanta, allowing two hits and striking out one, and he kept the Braves off the board. This lowered his ERA to a very respectable 2.38, but there were signs of trouble.
In addition to the reduced strikeout rates, Rincon was having trouble finishing off hitters. It wasn't unusual to see him face a batter who could push his plate appearance to four, five or six pitches. This had been a problem all season, and through his outing against the Braves was averaging 4.1 pitches per batter faced. All alone this number isn't alarming, but while the number of pitches per batter rose, the number of outs recorded fell. His pitches per inning rose to their highest peak since Rincon became a full time player, and the number of outs per batter faced fell off dramatically. This went on all season.
Year BF OR Conv%
2003 370 257 70
2004 327 246 75
2005 319 231 72
2006 315 223 71
2007 272 179 66
Since becoming a full-fledged member of the Twins bullpen, Rincon had been converting at least seventy percent of his batters faced into outs. Last year saw reduced strikeout rates, increased home run rates, increased walk rates and field-independent marks that jumped exponentially. He wasn't stranding as many runners and, most importantly, he wasn't getting as many batters out.
Following his appearance versus Atlanta, Juan was touched for seven earned runs and three homers over his next three games. Coming out of that stretch he was shaken, taking 20 pitches to get through his next inning. He was lacking in confidence, struggling to hit the strike zone and struggling to put hitters away.
June (6.30), July (12.38) and August (5.56) saw the deterioration of not just Rincon's ERA, but his position in the bullpen. From set-up man to middle relief to, after another rough day, low-pressure situations; even after the rash of injuries, Rincon was passed on the depth chart by both Pat Neshek and Matt Guerrier.
Looking Ahead
A bad summer well in the rear-view mirror, this season represents a proverbial fork-in-the-road for Rincon. Posting rebound numbers would bolster his stat track and likely bring a pretty solid contract, since one off year like '07 usually doesn't end a career. With Juan's track record there would be plenty of teams looking for a reliable and experienced 30-year old set-up man with a history of striking people out.
Another poor season would see Rincon probably having to pitch himself onto a roster. A 30-year old pitcher who looks past his prime and who will cost three times as much as a rookie isn't always an easy sell, especially when the peripherals are discouraging.
Rincon was roughed up on Sunday afternoon, giving up two hits and walking three in his inning of work. After his apparent collapse last summer, was it another sign of Rincon's inconsistency, or was it just a bad day? Other than a solo home run it's been his only damage of the spring, but throwing four strikes in sixteen pitches isn't excusable even in exhibition play.
Confidence is important for any pitcher, and last season it wasn't rebuilt. In a season where Rincon's future in baseball rests so much on the results of one summer, if he has the resolve to come back and be effective in his next couple of outings, there may be hope for him yet. The talent is there, and taking control of it would go a long way in helping him come back.
Juan Rincon's career will likely go beyond 2008. How far beyond and what kind of roles he'll play are up to him.
0 recs |
8 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Rincon has a little extra to prove
by by jiminy on Mar 17, 2008 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rincon and steroids
I'm not buying into the "Rincon has to prove it's not steroids" argument anymore, because that was nearly three years and three baseball seasons ago. I believe any success (and failures) he's had since then have come without the use to illegal substances.
He does have a lot to prove this year, you're right--and the steroid thing is going to stick with him forever--but that was quite some time ago.
by Jesse on Mar 17, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't just lose muscle mass...
And it's 100% possible that Rincon actually, honestly didn't know he was doing anything wrong. According to this, the percentage of tainted supplements sold even over-the-counter is rather appalling. But even if he didn't mean to be using, he pretty clearly was, since he failed the test. Since that time, his performance (notably his ability to get strikeouts) has declined.
It's likely not the whole story, but it seems rather clear to me that Rincon at one time benefitted from using PEDs.
by ubelmann on Mar 17, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
That muscle mass turned from muscle to a bit of flab at some point (he's certainly not big, but he never was while "using", either), and that tends to happen pretty quickly when there's no rigorous workout regimen. I would call both '06 and '07 clean years, unless I can find something stating how long it takes for the effect to leave the system, and even though '06 wasn't as good as the two prior seasons it still wasn't bad.
But, I clearly have more reading to do on the topic. I'm definitely no expert.
by Jesse on Mar 17, 2008 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My understanding is...
In baseball, it might be a little different. But I remember when Lawton got caught. He said he did it one day and the next day he hit a home run on the first pitch. He also said he didn't feel any better two days after than he felt before he did it.
My view is that Rincon was not a consistent user. I think he got injected in winter ball one time and tested positive in spring training, but baseball didn't confirm the positive test until May or whenever. I don't think he used during the season. I know the circumstantial evidence suggests otherwise, but correlation does not imply causation.
I think he just has a very small margin for error mechanically. When he was at the top of his game, he "stayed back good" as Bert likes to say. When he struggles, he jumps towards the hitters. The difference is, when you jump out at hitters, you don't have time to finish your pitches and they don't have the same movement on them. You also struggle to locate them.
He has had this habit off and on throughout his career. It even came up at the most inopportune time when he was at his peak (the aforementioned Ruben Sierra bomb). But when he was going good, he just got into a good mechanical groove and didn't jump out as much. I know it's not a salacious analysis. But I think it's the most likely reason.
by cmathewson on Mar 17, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It takes time
For examples of steriod users who stayed on-top of their sports long after using steroids, look up professional fighters, boxers, wrestlers, etc.
This is different from Biking because the most common techniques used in endurance sports are blood doping. This is very different than anabolic steriods or human growth hormone. The fundamental purpose of steroids and HGH is to stimulate the development of muscle through the manipulation of the hormones that cuase the production of certain kinds of tissue.
The purpose of blood doping is allow the user to circulate more oxygen to the muscles, delaying fatigue and allow the body to do more work. This allows both better, longer workouts, faster recooperation, and better performance in races. However, the effects of blood doping are extremely short. Increasing red blood cell counts through transfusions or EPO only lasts as long as blood is broken down (I forget, but something in the order of weeks). This will not cause your body to create red blood cells at a faster rate, so the outcome is short. Training at high altitude, which is legal, increases your body's production of red blood cells, and takes 3-6 months of high exertion at high altitude to reach your higher steady state. Once you return to lower altitude, your red blood cell count returns to its original steady state over the same period of time.
Or at least, this is how I understand it. If anyone else knows more, please add.
by snolls on Mar 17, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make or break
I think he'll be better. But I don't think he'll ever be as good as he was prior to the Ruben Sierra homer, which landed just underneath me as I watched in horror from the upper deck in right center, an area of the ballpark that is not open except during the playoffs.
One thing I wondered about is his claim that he worked out with an old pitching coach in the offseason and, based on one throwing session, he made a simple mechanical adjustment and suddenly had the snap on his slider again. If that's the case, where was Rick Anderson last year?
by cmathewson on Mar 17, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe its true (lets hope so, anyway)
Maybe Anderson wasn't seeing what Rincon was missing. Of course this doesn't exactly answer the "simple mechanical adjustment" - if it was so simple why wouldn't Anderson see it, but you never know.
by montanatwinsfan on Mar 17, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
