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RESOLVED: Trade Free Agents-to-Be before Their Final Year

One of the "gifts" of the Free Agent Era is the star player entering the final year of his contract ...

Star-divide

162 games, with the possibility of 19 more before a champion is crowned.  Games 6 days a week - on occasion two in a day.  

Hours at the ballpark when you're at home; hours on airplanes, buses & hotels when you're on the road.  

Day after day after day spent (largely) with the same group of guys.

It can get on your nerves.  And often does.  Which is why so many organizations worry about "chemistry."

Back when the Reserve Clause ruled, players knew they weren't going anywhere unless they were traded or released.  Which made "chemistry" easy - you kept useful players with good chemistry, you tried to 'manage' useful players who weren't so hot on chemistry ... and you got rid of bad chemistry guys.

No more.

With the advent of Free Agency,"next year" began to intrude into the chemistry of "this year" - how much does knowing Tom X will be playing somewhere else next year affect your going to battle with him this year?  How do you manage the intrusion?  Can you?

We all know what the options are ....

  •  "Play Ball!" - Let Tom play out the year & let "next year" take care of itself;
  •  "See how it goes" - We start the year with Tom ... and we solicit offers for Tom as the year goes on, hoping to get a package we like.
  •  "Trade Tom now" - As soon as we're convinced keeping Tom won't happen, we move him - sooner rather than later.
  • Recognizing that each situation is unique, there still should be some basic guidelines you can lay down to help you choose between the options ...

    And they would be?????

    My two cents:

    20/20 hindsight says the Twins should've traded Torii Hunter before the 2007 season for two reasons:

    First, the Twins organization isn't used to star players coming & going via free agency, with the result that "star player going elsewhere next year" will have more of a a day-to-day impact on chemistry than it would for, say, the Yankees.

    Second, Torii wasn't the type who would play out his free agent year quietly to avoid being a distraction.  

    Combine a player who will talk (constantly) about his contract status with an organization where the players aren't used to (and therefore good at) blocking it out & you get a sour clubhouse.

    Comments?  

    0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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    Don't disagree, but on the other hand,
    Torii was a classic example of a player who appeared to find something "extra" to give in his contract year. He did it last contract year, and he did it last year again. Funny how that works.

    Thus if you have a shot at winning it all, you keep that type of player for his numbers and the win shares he brings. Winning does wonders for chemistry.

    Or, you keep that player around to trade at the deadline when he is hot and at his peak value.

    by montanatwinsfan on Mar 2, 2008 6:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

    If you have a shot...
    I say you hold onto him, like the Indians this year with Sabathia.

    The strategy is, if you can, hold onto him until the trade deadline. If you're in the race, keep him. If you're out of the race trade him. I think the Twins have that strategy with Nathan.

    I'm sure they would have liked to have the same strategy with Santana, but Johan made it clear that, if they did not trade him by February 1, he would not agree to waive his no trade clause. So we had to trade when we did. The alternative was much worse.

    "You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

    by cmathewson on Mar 2, 2008 8:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Well, in retrospect it might have been better
    to trade Hunter since they didn't win last year, and wound up losing him for draft picks.  

    I think we all need to embrace a profound respect for our own ignorance: there are a lot of things we don't know, like how non-baseball things ("chemistry") affect baseball results. So I would never say that the way players handle their walk year has no impact.

    However, I question how much of this is knowable in advance.  For example, off the top of my head, in 2003, both Latroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado were in their walk years, and weren't quiet about it, and yet the team won their 2nd straight division title.   I just think these things are much more complicated than we can know.  

    by Eric in Madison on Mar 2, 2008 8:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

    there are a lot of things we don't know
    for sure. I would suggest that is so true that I hope it would be evident to everyone out here who doesn't work within the Twins organization. Therefore we are all arguing or posting with this same handicap.

    by montanatwinsfan on Mar 2, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Chemistry
    I'm a big disbeliever in chemistry.  Chemistry = winning.  If a team wins together, they'll stay together.  There are very few exceptions to this rule.

    Your left fielder and cacher don't have to be great friends.  They don't have to even like each other.  They just have to make solid throws at the other and continue to hit well.

    So I don't think chemistry should have much to do with these decisions.  Things like the bigger haul for players a year before they leave is a better reason to trade them.

    Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

    by AdamOnFirst on Mar 2, 2008 9:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

    I agree - - - mostly
    Winning makes it easier to ignore irritants, and losing ticks people off.  Teams that are winning usually find a way to manage the personalities.

    BUT ....

    baseball is different (IMO) because the season is so darn long & these guys are in each others face day after day after day.  Regardless of one's dedication to his profession, there will be days when the tank is empty & there's still a game to play / plane to catch.

    The '87 Twins weren't just a bunch of kids finally hitting their stride; those guys grew up professionally with each other, they liked each other & it showed on the field.  

    How different were the 91 Twins from the 90 team that finished "worst"?  

    91 had Morris (big plus); Erickson for the year (plus); Knoblach (plus); Chili Davis (plus).

    Were those 4 guys worth that many games?  Or was there something different about the makeup & personality of the 91 team because of those guys?

    Don't get me wrong - lousy players with great attitudes aren't going to win anything.  It's just that great players with lousy attitudes tend not to win anything either.

    by BD57 on Mar 3, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Others
    The 91 Twins also had an extra 150 ABs of Shane Mack, with an additional 90 total bases.

    Kevin Tapani threw 100 more innings.

    They also had the Big Train.

    It's just hard to quantify chemistry. Teams get on a roll and everyone is happy. Teams struggle and even the nice guys get crabby. What comes first, winning or good chmestry?

    "You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

    by cmathewson on Mar 3, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    I think
    "Teams get on a roll and everyone is happy. Teams struggle and even the nice guys get crabby. What comes first, winning or good chmestry?"

    I think that's the real deal.  I fall squarely on the "winning or losing happens first" camp.

    Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

    by AdamOnFirst on Mar 3, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    I suspect they shopped Hunter...
    ...and figured they weren't getting better than two top draft choices for him. USSMariner has shown that, with only a few notable exceptions, teams that trade players in the free agent years don't do as well as those that settle for draft picks. I would argue, for example, that the Twins were better off keeping Castillo and getting a sandwich pick than trading him for a couple of fringe prospects. Anyway, it's by no means a slam dunk to always trade players at the deadline. It depends on what is offered, and often that is not as much as two top draft picks.
    "You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

    by cmathewson on Mar 2, 2008 9:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

    I definitely think draft picks are a key...
    For example,

    2 1st rd picks isn't really that great for the greatest pitcher on the planet in his prime.

    But 2 1st rd picks for a closer, even a great one (maybe the best) like Nathan isn't so bad at all.

    Big difference to me.

    by djskilbr on Mar 3, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Yeah
    I think Castillo was one indication where the team almost certainly could have done better with the picks than with what we got.  We got a 36th rounder in the deal, one who hasn't done anything much in the pros. I'd have ratehr had the picks after he walked.

    But we DID learn about Alexi Casilla, which was valuable.  He's not really ready yet.  I thought he was at the time, so had we not traded Castillo, we might not have known what we do now.

    Baseball is great because you cant take a knee or kill the clock. You gotta put the ball over the plate and give the other guy his damn shot E Weaver abridged

    by AdamOnFirst on Mar 3, 2008 2:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Type A or B?
    Was Luis Castillo going to be a Type A free agent? I'm not sure where he would have fallen, my gut tells me Type B.

    by Adam Peterson on Mar 3, 2008 9:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Type B
    But with the new rules, a Type B gets a sandwich pick, rather than whatever the other team happens to have. If the other team signs a lot of high free agents, you could be left with very little. For example, with the old rules, the Twins were left with a fourth-round pick for Jacque Jones, a Type B free agent.
    "You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

    by cmathewson on Mar 3, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    I do think Adam (on First)...
    makes a solid point.

    No matter what it was probably worth it to find out about Casilla.

    And besides, I guess I'm one of those that's higher on Martin than most.  It's going to be awfully tough for him to break into our OF logjam in the majors in the near future, but he's still a good prospect to me.

    And Luis just isn't that good anymore.  So at least in a twisted way we have kind of forced the Mets into one of the worst MI contracts in history for the next 4 years after they took our beloved Johan from us.

    OK, that's my rationalization.  :)

    by djskilbr on Mar 3, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    Castillo
    Not only has Luis been declining at the plate, but his defense has suffered over the past two years, ranking -16 and -19 fielding runs above average in 2006 and 2007. By comparison, Brendan Harris was a -12 last year with Tampa Bay.  

    by Adam Peterson on Mar 3, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

    yep...
    we immediately saw some of the "wows" with Casilla exactly like we saw with Bartlett after the Castro fiasco.

    People vastly overrate Luis Castillo at this point based on past reputation.

    BTW, I would add Reyes/Rincon to the deadline trade list.  May as well get something for both if we're out of it.  Neither will be re-signed I would think.

    by djskilbr on Mar 5, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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