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Blackburn Impressive

Only a superior Liriano start on Friday may keep Blackburn from rotation.

Nick Blackburn turned in five solid innings in Thursday afternoon's defeat to the Reds, allowing three hits and walking two while striking out four.  Cincinnati's only damage against him came in the fourth inning, when following back-to-back singles Brandon Phillips scored on a double play.  Unfortunately the Minnesota offense was unable to muster any runs off Reds starter Bronson Arroyo and Blackburn was charged with the loss.

While Blackburn's future likely lies in the bullpen due to his lack of over-whelming "stuff", his performance this spring has all but assured him of at least a few rounds in the Twins starting rotation.  Of course the lack of incumbents has helped his cause, but that shouldn't take away from what he's accomplished over the course of the last few weeks.  He's beaten out Glen Perkins and Phil Humber, and unless Francisco Liriano does something spectacular tomorrow he'll have at least a temporary edge over him as well.

Most things have been decided, at least on an immediate basis.  We have a center fielder, a backup infielder besides Nick Punto, and four starters in the rotation.  The final decision, between Blackburn and Liriano, will likely be made after tomorrow afternoon's game.


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FYI

This post came through in the RSS Reader (Google Reader, in this case), with the following appended to the bottom:

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Don't know what that means or why it happened, but it's there.

by Jon Marthaler on Mar 28, 2008 1:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Thanks

I'd attempted to insert a widget on Blackburn but there wasn't one available for him, and then once I'd finished I forgot to remove it. It should display correctly now.

by Jesse on Mar 28, 2008 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone should remember...

...there was a stretch last summer at Rochester when Blackburn pitched over 44 innings without allowing an earned run (as a starter). Those who continue to report that he doesn't have the stuff to be a starter may be underestimating how good this young man can be. He took what he learned from his September with the Twins and went on to be the top pitcher in the AFL.

by roger13 on Mar 28, 2008 7:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Blackburn is overlooked by fans

I was behind home plate at yesterday's game sitting with the scouts from other teams. I peeked at their radar guns and Blackburn's fastball was touching 95 and his slider was at 91. Nathan and Crain were at 92.

Blackburn is overlooked by fans because he doesn't have a lot of strikeouts but his WHIP stats are very good. Yesterday the Reds didn't hit the ball hard at all.

If you look at his Minor League career, 2006 was the only year he didn't pitch well. All young starters are going to have to learn a few lessons in their first year in the majors but Blackburn and the rest of the young starters look very promising.

by Bill in Sarasota on Mar 28, 2008 9:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Sorry about the above--

can we edit or delete our own posts? I obviously hit the wrong button....

At any rate, I don't know that Blackburn is overlooked at this point...in fact I think he may be on the way to being overrated by fans.

He might have a decent 5th starter/swing man type career; I guess it's possible that he might be even better than that, but there are reasons to be dubious.

First, he's 26. Pitchers develop less linearly than hitters, but still, he isn't young, and never has been for his levels. I don't know that there is much more than what's already there.

Second, he's never been great in the minors, at least until the run he had at Rochester last season. He has a 3.68 ERA in the minors across strong pitchers' leagues.

Third, it's tough to succeed when your strikeout rate is that low. Like a lot of Twins pitchers, he controls the walks, which is a good thing, but if you can't miss any bats...

I don't mean to kill the guy, I like him and he may have a career. But to me, the issue is whether Liriano is ready, not what Blackburn himself does, in terms of who should be on the roster. He'll have his chances, and I certainly wish him the best, but he isn't the type of guy you make room for, IMO, and I don't think we should have particularly high expectations.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Pitcher Comparison

Pitcher A
22 yrs old - FSL - 4.99 era, 8.32 k/9, 1.31 whip
23 yrs old - East - 2.88 era, 9.04 k/9, 1.02 whip
24 yrs old - PCL - 4.27 era, 7.77 k/9, 1.24 whip
Most Twin blogs have him as a top ten prospect in Twins sys.

Pitcher B
23 yrs old - FSL - 3.36 era, 5.28 k/9, 1.19 whip
23 yrs old - East - 1.84 era, 4.96 k/9, 0.92 whip
24 yrs old - East - 4.42 era, 5.51 k/9, 1.35 whip
25 yrs old - Int'l - 2.11 era, 4.64 k/9, 0.98
Most Twin blogs have him in the top 20's prospect in Twins sys.

BA has Pitcher B as a top 5 Twin's prospect.

Both pitcher's had a year with arm injury.

Pitcher A is Humber and Pitcher B is Blackburn.

I actually like both pitchers but most fans are too focused on k/9 stat and downgrade Blackburn (see Seth or other Twin blogs). Of course most fans haven't seen any of the prospects play in person.

It's not a issue of Blackburn vs Liriano. Whenever Lirano is ready he's in the rotation. I believe the Twins should leave him in Ft. Myers to avoid the pressure of MLB and let him get a few starts under his belt. There's no reason to rush him this year.

by Bill in Sarasota on Mar 28, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply actions  

Too true

It's not a issue of Blackburn vs Liriano.

You're right, it's not. But the final spot will go to one of those two pitchers, which was the point I was trying to make.

I believe the Twins should leave him in Ft. Myers to avoid the pressure of MLB and let him get a few starts under his belt. There's no reason to rush him this year.

I couldn't agree more, but it sounds like if he goes out this afternoon and can be uber-impressive, the Twins will be more than happy to take him along. Personally I think you have the right idea--there's zero reason to do anything with him this year before you have to. Even if he says he's ready, leave him down for a couple of starts to make sure. Let him build the pitch count and continue to get used to throwing full strength.

by Jesse on Mar 28, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Blackburn injured

My recollection is that Blackburn had a bad knee a couple years ago and that it contributed to his having a poor season.

Hard to argue with 40 scoreless innings at AAA, which is what he did in July of last year. Or with being Twins #1 prospect in Baseball America.

Players grow, players develop, players change. I like guys who don't follow the conventional route to success or who bloom late.

by Old Twins Cap on Mar 28, 2008 1:47 PM EDT reply actions  

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