Hernandez Wins Again

by Jesse on Apr 12, 2008 7:40 AM EDT in News

Hernandez 3, Blogosphere 0

I'm having flashbacks to Ramon Ortiz.

Last spring, Ortiz started the season looking like a wolf on the prowl, stalking the mound. Through his first three starts he was 3-0, tossing 22 innings with an ERA just above 2.00. In fact, in all of April he was extraordinarily effective, as all five of his starts were quality starts. In 35 April innings he struck out 14, walked 6, and for the briefest of moments looked like a Terry Ryan bargain-bin steal. Of course we know what happened once the clock struck May.

Livan Hernandez has been the center of many of the same criticisms as Oritz, but for now we find ourselves in the same position. Three starts and 21 innings into the season, Hernandez is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA. He's given up a hit per inning, but thus far has only walked a single batter.

It's easy to say "there's nowhere to go but down", but at seven innings per start, and seven quality innings at that, we can at least be extremely happy with the results so far.

Liriano to start Sunday versus Royals.

With Kevin Slowey's move to the disabled list (retroactive to April 4) due to his strained right bicep, the Twins are bringing up Francisco Liriano. In two minor league starts this spring, his line isn't the most impressive:

Innings	Hits	XBH	Walks	Strikeouts	Runs
9.1	11	8	5	11	7

His start in Rochester last week was mediocre at best. When he steps onto the mound come Sunday, it will be interesting to see how he responds to his first, real major league start since 2006. I wish him the best, but I'm still cautiously optimistic.

While the shuffle of the rotation has been no surprise, how often conerns have been raised about individual pitchers has been a little unnerving. Scott Baker's been battling bouts of illness and a muscle strain, Kevin Slowy is headed to the disabled list and Francisco Liriano hasn't exactly been consistent. I'm looking forward to seeing how Boof Bonser and Nick Blackburn fare in their third appearances.

I'll see you for the game tonight!

Poll

How many starts will Livan Hernandez make for the Twins in 2008?

0 recs | Comment 12 comments

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Comments

Poll question

At the beginning of the season I would have voted 19 or fewer (even before he was sent down) because I fully expected the Twins to be conservative with his innings.

Injuries have clearly changed that equation. Of course I hope Lirano does well, but what if he struggles? What if he loses his stamina and control after the first few innings like he did in his last minor league start:

http://www.twinkietown.com/2008/4/9/390959/liriano-s-aaa-start

Does it make sense to pull him up now and send him back down in a couple of weeks when Baker and Slowey are ready again? I don't know what the other good options are (of course I can think if a number of other options, I just don't know if those options are any good) but I am worried that this call up is premature.

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 12, 2008 9:34 AM EDT 0 recs

Yeah I read

Cmath's post before I wrote mine, and I can't say I really disagree with what you've said. He struck out 8 in his first minor league start but that was against over-matched competition. Then in his solo Rochester start he wasn't too sharp, and was very inefficient with his pitches. I think there's plenty to be concerned about here, but I do think he's certainly healthy enough to last at least five innings, which is the most important thing.

If Liriano is struggling when everyone else finally comes around and are all healthy at the same time, I can see him being sent back down. In this situation it's not stunting his development, it's just giving him time to work things out in the minor leagues instead of in the majors where there's significantly less room for error.

by Jesse on Apr 12, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

misread the poll, but you still understood

thanks Jesse, I clearly misread the above poll and substituted "Liriano" for "Livan" when I commented above. I appreciate that you took the time to recognize my mistake and reply to what I meant to say.

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 12, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think Livan will last the entire season with the Twins. Do I expect seven inning starts and no runs everytime? No.

But I sure don't think he'll turn into Ramon Ortiz either.

"Don't take anything for granted, because tomorrow is not promised to any of us."

by Twins Territory on Apr 12, 2008 10:06 AM EDT 0 recs

Prediction

I said 24 because I think they'll trade him when the young studs are all lined up and ready to go. But I don't think he'll have an Ortiz-like collapse. Ortiz was still a power pitcher who had about a month of juice left in his arm. Livan is what he is, and I don't see any reason why he can't continue lobbing ephis pitches up there and getting them to hit weak dribblers.

I think you can chalk up Frankie's last start to extenuating circumstances. I think the cold affected him. After sitting in the dugout in the top of the third inning, he couldn't get a good grip and he lost control of his fastball. I think he'll do better when conditions are more like what he's used to.

His history is to pitch better against tougher competition. So I'll say he'll go six innings and give up three runs, with as many Ks as walks on Sunday. He'll be inconsistent this year, and he won't be the Frankie we saw in 2006 in any of his starts. But he's still the best option over Slowey, Perkins Humber, and Mulvey. That said, I do think Humber will force his way onto the roster at some point this year.

I think the Twins had every intention of keeping him at Rochester for another start, but then they looked at the weather forcast and noted that the same system that dumped eight inches of snow on Duluth yesterday should be over Rochester NY on Sunday. On the other hand, we have high pressure building in behind that low, so it's supposed to be in the 60s and sunny in KC on Sunday. So they decided to keep him on his regular work when conditions are most favorable to him.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 12, 2008 10:17 AM EDT 0 recs

And he shall be Livan; And he shall be a good man

I see 32+ starts. I'm keeping my fingers crossed with memories of Ortiz but I don't think Livan on his worst day would implode as much as Ortiz. He's going to have his bumps along the way but his track record shows he'll make all his starts.

by Super Terrific on Apr 12, 2008 11:34 AM EDT 0 recs

Livan and Liriano

Livan's start does remind me lot of Ramon Ortiz. It is pretty unfair to compare Ortiz to Livan Hernandez though. Hernandez has had far more success in every aspect. Whereas Hernandez has spent almost his entire career throwing over 200 innings a year, usually with an ERA in he high three's or lower fours, Ramon Ortiz rarely managed 200 innings in a season and only really only put up good numbers twice. In 2001 and 2002 Ortiz was a good innings eater like Hernandez. Hernandez is getting older, but he's had good results very recently, whereas Ortiz hardly had them in his history at all. I guess I'm saying I wouldn't expect the fall off to be as dramatic. Keep in mind I'm saying this wishing Hernandez wasn't on the team so we could go with all young horses.

As for Liriano, I think we have to be ready to accept struggles at first. Remember, Santana had an operation to remove bone chips from his elbow before the famed 2004 season ad had an ERA over 6 for the first two months of the season. He simply had problems in his motion because he was still favoring his elbow. Having Rick Anderson around should help keep Liriano in the mindset that he is healthy and can go all out. He'll have some tough days, bu I think he'll also have days where he'll remind us what we'll get from him when he clears that final hurdle.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 12, 2008 11:47 AM EDT 0 recs

Just remember this post

When Livan gives up 8 runs in a start in a few weeks. I voted for the 32+ starts, and I think it will happen, but he's not going to continue to pitch like this.

Correction: he's going to continue to pitch exactly like this (60-80 mph, giant loopers), but some teams are going to smash the ball. He'll be completely adequate, but some starts are going to look terrible.

The thing is, he isn't here to be a true ace, so that's fine. If he keeps going 7 innings, and his ERA rises to 4.50 (hard to expect much better than that), he will still be worth his $5-7m.

And CMath, I really hope your right about the trade. If he gets traded, it means that we have a bare minimum of four pitchers excelling in the majors. I feel pretty good about Baker right now, and I think Bonser will be adequate. If Liriano/Slowey/Blackburn/Humber/Mulvey/etc can provide us will good outings, I will be ecstatic. In fact, if that happens, I actually think that Livan might not get traded, because it might mean we will be in the hunt for the playoffs late in the season, and no-one messes with that.

Here's to hoping that's the case.

by snolls on Apr 12, 2008 1:06 PM EDT 0 recs

Ha

Yes, I will remember this post. And I will think back fondly of the happy times.

Livan won't continue to pitch like this, and I didn't say he would. Eventually the house of cards will fall; I was just drawing a comparison between his and Ortiz's great beginnings.

by Jesse on Apr 12, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree

Maybe it's wishful thinking but you can't really lump Livan with Ortiz since at one time Livan was a very good pitcher. He's getting more ground balls so hopefully he's gotten some better downward movement on his fastball, uh, I mean changeup? Either way, we all know he won't keep this up, but after watching him pitch a few games I'm confident he'll be at least serviceable and not the train wreck we were all afraid of at first.

FREE MATT TOLBERT!!!!

I'm thoroughly unimpressed with Everett so far. If he were hitting it would be a different story. I think the stories of his defensive wizardry have been overstated. He coddles the ball like a baby and seems to have decent range but that arm has got to go. I say keep giving at least half the SS starts to Tolbert at least until he stops hitting or Everett starts hitting a lot better.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 12, 2008 1:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Everett is hurt

I don't think we've seen his arm healthy yet. So that's why they shut him down for the time being. These things tend to linger, as we saw with Guzman, so I'll be watching it carefully. But when he's healthy, he's as good as it gets defensively. I would favor a DL stint just to calm it down. But I'm no trainer.

Even if they don't DL Everett, I think the Twins should play the hot hand and let Tolbert play every day until he gets cold. He's a much better hitter than Everett, and if he keeps making all the plays in the field, I could see him taking over full time at some point this season.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 12, 2008 3:06 PM EDT 0 recs

It's hard not to get excited about Tolbert.

He's still fairly young, at least just as young as Bartlett when he got decent playing time in the majors. Doesn't have quite the OBP that Bartlett had but had a little more HR power in the minors, albeit not much. I would think there's reason to believe he could surprise us and develop into a solid starter. I don't wanna jump the gun too much on this though. At the very least he should be a great guy to replace Punto as the super utitlity.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 12, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up 0 recs