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Santana Booed in NY

 

13mets

 

I like Johan.  It was a great run.  He went from a tentative Rule 5 pick to ace lefty Cy Young winner.   That happens once a generation, in about one team out of thirty. For awhile there, I think 17 straight wins, he was unbeatable at home.

Well, times have changed.  The Grey Lady says, Johan is already getting "Bronx cheers".

The fans at Shea Stadium stood and cheered Johan Santana when he jogged out of the dugout 20 minutes before Saturday’s game. They stood and cheered, as if they were doing the wave, when he walked back from the bullpen, and they stood and cheered again when he ran out to the mound, his first pitch at Shea a few tantalizing minutes away.

When Santana was removed in the seventh inning of the Mets’ 5-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, immediately after giving up his third home run of the afternoon, there was little standing, hardly any cheering and quite a bit of booing. Welcome to New York, Johan.

 

His line doesn't look terrible, but he pitched into hard luck for a second straight game, facing the other team's ace.  Though, surrendering three homers, it's not like he was unhittable.

Which brings up his recent M.O.  Sure, great pitcher at missing bats.  Tons of strikeouts.  But, he throws a lot of pitches.  Balls, strikes, fouls.   High counts.  Hitters can get the hang of fouling off his change-up.    And, every so often, a RH hitter finds a fat fastball or a cement mixer slider and takes him out. 

The Mets and their kingdom are figuring this out.  Santana will keep you close, but you still have got to hit.  Unfortunately for Johan, wearing the mantle of  the "best pitcher in baseball" is an inhuman expectation, but one he eagerly embraced in getting his many millions.

“We’re not perfect,” Santana said. “I wish we could do everything the way everybody wants, but we’re human beings and we’re going to make mistakes sometimes. It’s just how you react to it or how you bounce back and do your job. Right now, a lot of people are expecting a lot of things from me. I’m trying to do my job and hopefully exceed those expectations.”

Something has got to give.  The Mets need pitching now more than ever.

 

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I could see this coming

Santana was very human last year. He had five great games, 20 quality starts, and five bad starts. I knew that unless he got better, he would get crucified in New York with that contract. I thought he would get better because of the weakness of the NL. But I also felt that there would be days like this. I just hope there aren't too many more days like this.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 13, 2008 1:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If there are more days like this

he has over 150 million ways to make himself feel better.

yeah, that was kind of me of me.

by caluofmn on Apr 13, 2008 2:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He'll

He'll be just fine this year. His line will still look great. It's impossible to be totally invincible every time out. He's still got an ERA at 3-flat, and he usually starts slow. Despite him "throwing a lot of pitches" he is still totally unhittable when he's on, which is more and more often as the season goes on.

I also have to take issue with the idea that Santana "throws a lot of pitches." I've always thought one of Santana's strengths is his pitch economy. The numbers back this idea up. So far in this early season, out of 156 pitchers who have had starts, Santana ranks 13th in fewest pitches per inning with 14.3. The majority of the pitchers around him are contact pitchers like Chien Ming-Wang and Greg Maddux, not guys that spend extra pitches getting three strikes on hitters like Santana (though there are some notable strikeout names in his territory, such as Ben Sheets and Cole Hamels). In 2007, out of 302 pitchers with starts, Santana ranked 46th in fewest pitches per inning with 15.3. This was the worst year of Santana's career in pitch efficiency. In 2006, Santana was 23rd out of 303 in the same metric.

Much of this success is due to Santana giving up less hits and facing less batters than many pitchers. In 2007 (once again, the least pitch efficient year of Santana's career) Santana ranked 188th out of 302 starters in fewest pitches per plate appearance. In 2006, he ranked 152 out of 303 starters in the same metric. While that's much more middle of the road, I'd say that's not bad for a guy who's always among the league leaders in racking up K's. It's pretty tough to get a guy out with one pitch when nobody can put any bat on your changeup.

The fact is, Santana has racked up lots of innings while throwing a very small number of pitches in the process for his entire starting career. Saying he "throws lots' of pitches" is pretty unfair at best, and patently false at worst.

And without taking huge issue with it, I don't see how it's terribly accurate to say Santana throws lot's of 'balls and fouls' when he is clearly one of the best in the league at missing bats entirely and has carried an above average walk rate his whole career.

It was one marginal start. He'll be just fine. His line will probably look about as good or better than it has the last couple years. Quite frankly, New Yorkers are a bunch of douchebags for turning their back on him so fast, but that's no news. I hope he has a great year. I honestly hope he enjoys his new life in New York, on the big stage, with the big bucks. But I hope on nights like this, when he isn't perfect and the fickle New Yorkers turn their backs on him, that he'll remember with just a twinge of regret how much we loved and supported him in little old Minnesota.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 13, 2008 2:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He certainly has good games

And April has always been "the cruelest month" for him.

But, as efficient as he appears to be on paper, the recent trends are moving toward throwing more and more pitches, especially against good-hitting teams. 188th out of 302 pitchers in terms of pitches/per plate appearance would tend to confirm a negative trendline, especially in such an elite pitcher.

Yes, he does miss a lot of bats, but he also gave up a lot of homers last year. More importantly, he also coughed up a couple late leads: once against Tampa Bay at home, once against Oakland on the road. Not exactly the kind of killer instinct you want in your #1.

While I expect he will be fine over the next couple years, taking him out 7 years, at that kind of money, has much more downside risk than I would ever endorse.

by Old Twins Cap on Apr 13, 2008 11:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bottom

Killer instinct or no, he still gave up fewer runs than almost any pitcher in the game last year. He just wasn't the UNDISPUTED best again. The best pitcher in the league over several years doesn't have to be the best EVERY year.

And one point of data isn't a trend, it's a single point.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 13, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's April

And he doesn't even have the dome this year. He'll be his usual dominant self June15- Sept 15, as long as the media in New York doesn't lambast his confidence too badly.

by TMW on Apr 14, 2008 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That's not enough in New York

Twins fans were all too happy to write off his April and May. Mets fans obviously will not. And they shouldn't. When he was just a former Rule 5 draftee making less than the top salary on his team in Minnesota, nobody complained about two months of mediocre pitching. Now that he's the highest profile pitcher in the game with the highest salary in the largest market, he should be pitching better in April and May than he did for the Twins. If he can't, he's not worth the money, or the players.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 14, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree with this.

I disagree with this.
Santana should not have to be any better than he has been, regardless of what he is or was being paid. Santana is being paid NOW what he was worth for the past three-four years. What New Yorkers in general are not going to realize is that Santana is giving them EXACTLY what he is being paid for. He is being paid for what he has done, his track record demanded a certain amount in the market, and the Mets were happy to pay it.

Santana should not have to change his approach due to mismanaged expectations by the fans. Santana was worth the highest salary in baseball for what he did for the Twins the past three years, which included a typically "slow" April/May, which twins fans got accustomed to. We got him at a steal. He's now being paid what he's worth, and I think the fans quick to boo don't understand the situation. Santana should not change his approach due to a few noisy bleacher creatures.

by Neil on Apr 14, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree as well

I disagree as well. It's how it's going to be, but that doesn't mean it is right. Why does it matter if he's mediocre at the start if his final line is right where it always is anyway? I'd even agrue Santana's trends work out better for the team because he's hot come playoff time.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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