Walks and the Minnesota Twins

by Aaron Fix on Apr 13, 2008 12:14 PM EDT Comment 11 comments

It is no secret that the Minnesota Twins pitchers don't walk batters. If there is a defining characteristic about the team besides a glut of weak hitting middle infielders, it is that Twins pitchers throw strikes, challenge hitters and don't give many free passes. It is also true that Twins pitchers, up and down the system, are quite good. Obviously there is a lot of correlation (and causation) between not giving up walks and pitching well, and the organization understands this. From top to bottom, the Minnesota Twins as an organization seem to understand that giving away bases for free is one of the worst things a pitcher can do for himself and his team. And the Twins are right. The Team is able to compete year after year, despite generally poor (or at best average) offense. As a dedicated fan, this is a point of pride for me. I like watching 22 year olds come up through the system and challenge guys like Vladimir Guerrero on the mound.

What I find very interesting is that the Twins place no such premium on taking walks. During spring training Ron Gardenhire held privately and publicly encouraged Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez (two of the freest swingers I have ever laid eyes on) to keep hacking. I read in one of the Minnesota dailies that Delmon Young swung at more pitches than any other hitter in baseball last year. Carlos Gomez, for his part, swung through three straight pitches that were nowhere near the plate with the bases loaded and either 0 or 1 out last night. No one in the organization, at least publicly, seems to acknowledge the logical corollary to what they understand at a very fundamental level for their pitchers: walks help hitters.

In support of my thesis, I took a look at the team data for the last few seasons and the results are striking. In 2006, when the offense was actually decent, the Twins were 22nd out of 30 teams in BB. The next year they were 19th, and so far in 2008 (through 10 games, the stats were not updated since last night) the Twins are 26th in the majors with just 29 walks, roughly half of Cincinnati's 57 and Oakland's 56. As for pitching, the Twins have issued just 14 walks in 11 games in 2008, less than half as many as any other team in the league and exactly one quarter as many as tthe league-leading Boston Red Sox! In 2007, the Twins issued the 2nd fewest walks in the league (the Indians issued the fewest and went to the ALCS).

I am left to conclude that there is an enormous logical inconsistency at the organizational level. Granted the Twins order is generally not too threatening and thus pitchers may feel more comfortable challenging the hitters, but it is not at all clear where the causation lies here. In a lineup full of free swingers, hitters get to see fewer middle relievers and get to hit with men on base more rarely. Moreover, becoming more patient at the plate can make a guy a better hitter by forcing pitchers to give him something he can hit. I am more tempted to conclude that the ability to take a pitch makes a hitter better, rather than that the Twins don't walk often because they are not threatening hitters.

Has anyone else been bothered by this? How can an organization that recognizes that issuing walks helps the other team completely fail to recognize that taking walks helps our team?

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Nice

Thanks for looking into the Twins data. I like where you're going, however, I'm not fully convinced that BBs play into wins/playoffs quite as much as you are stating.

I'd like to test at what level BB really helps or hurts a team. Obviously on some level, BB taken will help an offense, and BB given will hurt a defense, but how much?

Despite that, I think the real point you are making is the serious inconsistencies in hitting/pitching approaches, and I think is very valid.

What would my life be like without the '91 World Series?

by MJesser on Apr 14, 2008 12:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well, I didn't actually state anything about BBs having anything to do with the playoffs , but in as much as taking them helps teams score runs, and issuing them causes teams to give up runs, I guess they would increase the probability of going to the playoffs. In fact, seeing as the Red Sox and Yankees' hitters have been in the top 3 in the AL in walks for each of the past 5 seasons, I think the statistical correlation between walking and scoring runs is probably very high.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Apr 14, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

something else interesting

the Boston Red Sox have led the league in walks the last 3 seasons (they were 3rd in '04). Maybe that's Bill James' influence.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Apr 14, 2008 2:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nah, I think it was an organizational philosophy

that led to the hiring of James.

That team grinds at bats. Part of it is that pitchers don't want to challenge Manny and Papi, but part of it is that team just grinds.

It is a bizarre disonance that the Twins have going, with the emphasis on control pitchers, but not on hitters who control at bats. It isn't beyond the realm of possibility that I will break my television after a Delmon Young AB at some point this season. He's so frustrating to watch hit.

by Eric in Madison on Apr 14, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard that in the minors...

...they give all the Red Sox farmhands copies of Ted Williams' book on hitting. Ted Williams had a career .482 OBP (so much for the best baseball players failing 1 out of every 3 attempts) and over his career walked in more than 20% of his plate appearances.

Now clearly it takes more than good instruction and the right hitting philosophy to work a lot of walks, but the Red Sox seem to value hitters who know which pitches not to hit (and thus, know which pitches to hit) more than the Twins, who seem to value hitters who can make contact regardless of whether they have good pitch selection or awful pitch selection.

by ubelmann on Apr 14, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've often wondered about this before...

...and this is my best explanation for why it makes sense to the Twins:

They feel that teams win on pitching and defense, and they generally feel that they have a better defense than other teams. So when opposing hitters put the ball in play, the Twins expect to make outs on those balls-in-play. When Twins hitters put the ball in play, though, they are "making things happen" and the Twins expect to reach on either hits or errors.

The other thing is that pitchers who don't walk very many hitters tend to have good command (location within the strike zone) in addition to good control (ability to throw strikes.) That is absolutely a good quality to have in a pitcher, so this seems like a good way to value pitchers. If the Twins feel that pitchers are mainly responsible for allowing walks (they are the ones throwing the ball, after all) and good pitchers are the ones who don't allow walks, then hitters who rely on walks a lot are going to struggle more against good pitching than hitters who rely mainly on good contact skills (which the Twins clearly value based on their rank in team strikeouts over the last few years.) [This is one of those traditionalist arguments about why the A's always failed to advance in the playoffs: Once they had to deal with really good pitching, the walks and HR went away, and they didn't have much offense.]

I still think that both of those are kind of silly, and that the Twins should be instructing their hitters to get their pitch to hit and not be so impatient at the plate--just because Delmon can make contact with a lot of pitches, doesn't mean it is a good idea for him to make contact with all of those pitches.

But different hitters also have different optimal approaches. Vlad, for instance, is a free swinger and that clearly works very well for him. It could be that Delmon would be hindered by a more patient approach--that's something we can't really know, though.

Basically, I tend to think that the Twins don't work very many walks more because of the talent they've decided to acquire and less because of the instruction that those hitters receive. I just wish that the Twins would start to acquire players who have shown some patience in their career.

by ubelmann on Apr 14, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the alternative hypothesis recently occurred to me

that the Twins still believe that walks are the fault of pitchers and batters can do little if anything to get themselves walked. That sounds pretty extreme though, and I like your explanation better.

But the lack of patience in the lineup is really disturbing. The Sox and Yankees figured out long ago that the way to win games in this league is to wear pitchers down and get into the middle relievers, who can usually be touched for some pretty big innings. Now, as long as the Twins' payroll is less than half of theirs (or whatever it is) we won't have as good of hitters. But just consider how difficult it is to be a good hitter in a lineup that frequently makes pitchers throw 5 or 6 pitches in an inning. That lineup is never earning the chance to hit against the bad pitchers, which is where a lot of the hits come, even for the stars on the Sox and Yankees.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Apr 14, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll agree with the extreme interpretation, though

the Twins still believe that walks are the fault of pitchers and batters can do little if anything to get themselves walked. That sounds pretty extreme though

I think this really is the way most 'baseball guys' think, though -- you can't draw a walk if the pitcher throws strikes, so you may as well go up there swinging. Never mind that many strikeouts occur when a batter chases after a bad pitch fearing it might be close enough to be called strike 3.

There's probably a distinction to be made between being a good hitter and being a disciplined hitter; it would be interesting to see how 'baseball guys' think as to if it's harder (or even possible) to become the latter rather than the former.

by dwintheiser on Apr 14, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Biggest

The biggest problem, to me, isn’t just not taking walks as much as it is not knowing WHICH pitches to swing at. You’ll get walks because you know what pitches to NOT swing at, which will turn some outs into balls. Knowing which pitches TOO swing at is a close cousin of that. A really goo hitter won’t swing at a very good pitch, even a strike, without two strikes. Some strikes are obviously better to hit than others, and being able to wait for those pitches is tantamount to power.

That is why the idea that walks are totally on the pitcher and that better pitchers will shut out a walking team backfires logically. If you’re just swinging at everything, you’ll end up putting the ball in play on a lot of pitches that aren’t good for making good contact. If you just swing at anything near the zone, you won’t get many good pitches to hit. A good pitcher knows this and will take better advantage of your impatience. That’s why the Twins have always been screwed by junkballers and top pitchers. Why would a good pither ever go anywhere near challenging Delmon Young when they know he’ll just swing at pitches that are right where the pitcher wants them? If you aren’t patient, you can never force the pitcher to come in after you. Then the only things you have to hit are the really awful mistake pitches, which, with good pitchers, happen less.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 16, 2008 3:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

A guy can show improved plate discipline without getting more walks. He can take pitchers pitches and foul off tough pitches, etc. I suppose that will show up in pitches seen per plate appearance. But walks are an over granular way to measure plate discipline.

They’re also an over-granular way to measure control. A guy can pound the strike zone and get lit up because he’s wild within the strike zone. I think that’s the root cause of the bullpen’s struggles on Monday night. This ultimately will show up in HRs and fly balls, but it’s tough to link wildness within the strike zone to opposing hitting stats.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 16, 2008 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See Crain

Yeah, Jesse Crain was missing his spots bad last night. The glove was right below the knee caps, and he was at the letters. Most of the pitches didn’t look too bad, because the were at the letters, appearing to be good, high, strikes. However, the only pitch he could locate (except one) was the curve ball, which was ending up low in the zone. It really scared me long before the inning got ugly. I’m not sure if he’s still rusty, or was just having a bad night, but again, he wasn’t close to hitting the spots he was supposed to.

by snolls on Apr 16, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs