Liriano Struggles In First Start

by Jesse on Apr 13, 2008 7:17 PM EDT in Game Recaps Comment 20 comments

Franchise can't complete 5, struggled with command.

While this wasn't a devastating performance by Liriano, and in many respects was really a quite predictable outing at this juncture, it still wasn't pretty. Fastballs and changeups dominated the afternoon, and the fastball in particular struggled to find the strike zone much of the time. The fourth and fifth innings in particular were intriguing to watch, as he appeared to lose a little something.

I've charted Liriano's pitch selection by inning, to give you an idea of how he fared.

Fastballs (49 total, 54% selection)

Innings	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
Fastballs	12	9	6	13	7	47
Strikes	7	4	4	8	3	26
Hits	2	1	0	3	0	6

Innings	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
Cutters	1	0	0	1	0	2
Strikes	1	0	0	1	0	2
Hits	0	0	0	0	0	0

I was entirely unaware that Liriano had a cutter in his arsenal (or a curveball for that matter, as you'll see below), but Gameday insists he did. There weren't many pitches labeled as a cutter though, so we can stick with the fastballs.

All six of Liriano's hits were given up on fastballs, which weren't registering near the mid-90's according to some reports. Just over half of his fastballs went for strikes, and while working into deep counts and getting behind didn't help him, that once blistering pitch was quite hittable Sunday afternoon.

Breaking Balls (8 total, 9% selection)

Innings	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
Sliders	0	0	1	3	1	5
Strikes	0	0	0	1	1	2
Hits	0	0	0	0	0	0
Curveballs	0	0	1	2	0	3
Strikes	0	0	0	1	0	1
Hits	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0	0	2	5	1	8

Once again, Gameday identified a pitch that I didn't know Liriano had: a curveball. It seems to me that both the cutter and the curveballs could have been wonky sliders, causing them to be misinterpreted. For that reason I've combined the chart for sliders and curves. (But then again, a couple of those pitches did look like curves, didn't they?) At any rate, only eight of Liriano's 90 pitches were breaking balls, three of which went for strikes and none of which were turned into a hit. At least in his first start, Rick Anderson's wish to dramatically reduce the number of sliders/breaking balls used came to fruition.

As the weeks wear on and Liriano gets stronger, I do anticipate he will begin to throw more sliders/breaking balls again, but on Sunday afternoon it's clear he was limited. And from how effective the pitches were, I don't think the limitations hurt him too much. The fastball wasn't locating well enough to make breaking balls any sort of bait.

Changeups (33 overall, 37% selection)

Innings	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
Changeups	2	4	9	9	9	33
Strikes	2	3	4	6	4	20
Hits	0	0	0	0	0	0

Game announcers called this a circle change, and based on this one appearance it did look as though Liriano was more confident with its use. Or maybe it was just because his fastballs weren't too effective and he wasn't throwing many breaking balls. At any rate, the change was Cisco's most effective pitch on Sunday. Thrown for strikes 61% of the time, no changups were turned into hits, and even when it appeared hitters were waiting for it they weren't able to capitalize.

Final Sunday Thoughts

Once again, no offense, but it was fun being able to watch Liriano throw his first real game in 19 months. He'll be a work in progress most (if not all) of 2008, so we should be prepared for many more starts that may look just like this one. Hopefully he can start putting it together these next few weeks, and we'll be able to see some positive trends as we move into the fall.

0 recs | Comment 20 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Thoughts

Seems like the problem is still strength and control. The number of walks, and balls overall, suggests that he had to throw some down the heat of the plate. That will make you more hittable. If his velocity rises and he can hit the corners, presumably he will be less hittable. Also, when he throws more breaking balls, hitters will be swinging at more of the balls that aren't strikes (as they did in '06). When you are throwing all straight pitches (sure the cutter and circle change move some) it is easier for the hitter to read strike/ball out of the pitchers hand.

This game suggests that he was given the Johan Santana game plan. Unless Liriano acquires a Santana like change, he's probably not going to be the success we are hoping for with two pitches.

A while back, there was a great interview with Brian Bannister (who just fooled the Twins pretty good), that I found interesting: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/brian-bannist-2.html
He talks about how important deception is to a pitcher. A hitter has to figure out where the ball is going to be. I won't go quote the whole piece, but basically, I think that Liriano had a couple of kinds of deception going prior to his injury. He threw extremely hard, which gives the hitter very little time estimate the location of the pitch before deciding whether to swing. Secondly, his slider was thrown so hard, and had so much late movement, that hitters ended up swinging at a lot of balls. His changeup benefited from being the pitch they weren't looking for.

Santana used this in reverse. He threw nearly as hard, and had the deception that hitters couldn't tell which pitch was coming early enough. As such, they swung at a lot of changeups, which ended up being balls. The slider benefited from being the hard pitch with movement, so they weren't looking for it.

If Liriano has, in fact, added a cutter, this might help add to the deception. A fastball with movement help keep the hitter off-balance. If his fastball is now hittable, a second fastball may help improve all of his pitches. I suspect this is largely the source of Blackburn's success. He throws 3 fastballs (four seamer, two seamer, cutter). His speed doesn't provide his advantage, but the difficulty in reading how much the pitch will move is makes him deceiving.

by snolls on Apr 13, 2008 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's changed.

What I remember from Liriano in 2006 is that he had three pitches in his arsenal. First, he threw a 94-95 fastball, difficult to hit at the best of times. The reason he was so untouchable, though, was that he threw the slider 90-91 (making it look like the fastball) and threw a pretty decent changeup, too (which looked like a fastball out of his hand.) Basically, there was no way you could hit him unless you a) guessed right or b) got lucky.

Today, he threw the fastball about 88-92, the slider 79-81, and the changeup 76-82. Also, whereas in 2006 he threw an ungodly number of sliders, as Jesse notes, he threw virtually none today.

Without that extra velocity on the slider and on the fastball, he's going to be a lot more hittable. It remains to be seen if that will come back, or whether it's gone for good.

by Jon Marthaler on Apr 13, 2008 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably Gone for quite a While at Least

It wouldn't surprise me if he lost some from the surgery, but more importantly, didn't the fact that he threw the slider so hard what screwed up his arm in the first place? Or at least aggravated it? There would be a good reason to back off on the slider for him, if not for the team as a whole.

Dear Firpo, looks like my stock is fine.

by MNPundit on Apr 14, 2008 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts

I thought he pitched better than his numbers. The run in the first should never have happened: a good throw from Everett would have kept Joey G. off the base paths. The run in the second should never have happened: A good play by Span and Olivo's double is an out. The other runs were earned, but five innings and three runs doesn't seem so bad to me for the first outing in 18 months. Also, I thought the ump was squeezing him, especially as the game went along. I lost track of how many times I said, "Where was that pitch?"

What impressed me was his arsenal. he threw his breaking ball at several different speeds and he had a great change-up with which he got all of his strike-outs. He will never throw another 90 MPH slider, but his breaking balls have plenty of bite on them and his change-up is a plus pitch.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 13, 2008 9:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Velocity

I think it's all about the velocity. The fact that his velocity was so down indicates to me that he is still throwing hesitantly. The Twins coaching staff has said they knew he would have work on "mentally realizing he's healthy again."

I've said it before, but it's worth repeating. Santana had an ERA in the upper 5's going into June, because he still wasn't throwing confidently after offseason elbow surgery. Anderson worked with him and fixed the problems, and he took off to a finish we all know. If Rick Anderson could cure Santana's problem in one bullpen session after Santana had a surgery that didn't cause hi to miss any time, I think we can give him a while to work on Liriano's confidence after a year away from the game.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 13, 2008 10:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn't

I didn't do a harcore video comparison, but just anecdotaly, Liriano's motion looked wierd somehow, other than the changed leg kick at the end. It didn't look like he was throwing his pitches with the same abandon as before. He'll get that back with time, I believe.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 13, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is his motion

The Twins have advised him to not throw with the abandon he threw with before. The stuff we saw today is the stuff he will be going with. If he can refine his command, it's plenty good to dominate a major league line-up. If you look across the diamond at Bannister, who didn't break 90 all day, you can see how command can get major league hitters out more effectively than raw stuff.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 13, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They

They can take away some of the extra abandon, like the superflous leg kick at the end that caused undue strain, but they can't POSSIBLY mean to have him throw half-assed all the time. He'll NEVER be the same pitcher, even if hes capable of it, if he throws only 90. There's no point in keeping him like that, you've lost his talent then anyway.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2008 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Arm slot. Release point. Finishing pitches.

He missed on all those cliched aspects.

Was Red Wings manager Stan Cliburn ever right.

"If the Twins needed a pitcher Sunday, we couldn't recommend him right now."

Spooky bad.

Sure, it was cold in K.C. But take the video of that game, show it to some high school kids, and it's a clinic in how not to pitch.

There's no way the big-league staff can view that as anything but a step back from his last spring training start, which was not ready for prime time, either.

We'll find out Friday what a week with Rick Anderson is worth now that Liriano has put what for him had to be a much anticipated start behind him.

Q: Generally, who should have a larger role in evaluating college and minor league players: scouts or stat guys?

A: Ninety-five percent scouts, five percent stats. Stats can tell you who is good, but they’re almost 100 percent useless when it comes to who will improve. -- Bill James.

by Firpo Marberry on Apr 14, 2008 1:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"We'll find out Friday what a week with Rick Anderson is worth now that Liriano has put what for him had to be a much anticipated start behind him."

Yeah, I agree with that. It's going to be a work in progress for awhile.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2008 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not how I saw it

I think his mechanics were fine--much better than in 06. His velocity was fine--touching 94 twice and consistently throwing 92 with good sink. He didn't have the velocity on his slider and I doubt he ever will. But it's still a good pitch, especially since he was changing speeds with it. His change was much improved, however. I don't think it was a step back. He's taking baby steps forward; he's not taking steps back.

Elbow injuries don't change a guy's stuff all that much. They do mess with control, however. And that is his biggest problem right now. He was missing his spots, especially with the fastball. But he wasn't missing by much. And I stopped counting at 12 the number of close pitches that were called balls. The strike zone shrank for him as the game went along, and the last two walks featured several pitches that were in the zone but called balls, at least looking at Gameday. Bannister, on the other hand, got a bigger strike zone as the game went along.

He also wasn't helped by his defense. Gaithright's hit in the first was a routine grounder that Everett nonchalanted and he beat it out. Olivo's hit in the second was an easy play for a competent right fielder. That's two out of four runs. With more help from his defense, he could have easily gotten through five innings while only surrendering two runs. Nobody would be complaining if that was the outcome.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 14, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Velocity

His velocity was in the mid 90s, really? Gameday was reporting 89 and 90 on all his fastballs...

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Average vs peak

In the first inning, he started out throwing 87 to 90. At the end of the game, his average fastball velo was 90.7. He touched 94 once and hit 93 a few times. That's been his history this year, he throws harder as the game goes along. But the harder he threw, the less command he had.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 14, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh

Huh, when I looked, I didn't see a single pitch aywhere near the mid 90's.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 14, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gleeman

This is Gleeman's analysis of MLB.com's radar readings, which were somewhat slower than the ballpark's.

Of course, that's a moot point for now, because Liriano didn't come close to throwing his pitches as well as he did in 2006. His 2006 fastball averaged 94.7 miles per hour, but he reached 94 with just one pitch yesterday, threw nearly one-third of his fastballs in the 80s, and averaged 90.2. His 2006 slider averaged 87.7 MPH, but he never topped 82 with it yesterday and averaged 80.7. His 2006 changeup averaged 83.5 MPH, but was exclusively in the 77-81 range yesterday while averaging 79.2.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 14, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ballparks

I’m trusting MLB’s readings more. Ballparks tend to pad numbers to appear more impressive.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gleeman got his readings from mlb.com

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that the ump squeezed him

on the strike zone, but try pitching in Yankee stadium and see how small the zone gets.

What struck me was his lack of passion. I know pitchers are supposed to be unemotional and above the fray, but he looked positively lifeless in terms of body language and showing any sign that he was "into" the game.

I couldn't see anything wrong mechanically, just that it was only mechanical, as if he were not invested or even interested in the outcome of any particular pitch, batter, and especially the game. I'll take a little violence, a little displeasure with a call, some interest in his fielders--I'll take anything but the Madame Toussaud's Wax Museum routine.

Then again, out here my television has a lot of snow due to poor reception...

by Old Twins Cap on Apr 14, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You have to have had seen this coming

Come on. He got blown up in his first two starts. He struck out a lot of guys in his start in Ft. Myers but that’s what you get in a rehab start; the effectiveness just wasn’t there though

by hornet on Apr 16, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs