Everett the new Wally Pip?

by cmathewson on Apr 16, 2008 1:21 PM EDT

Last night Adam Everett sat out of the third game out of the last four because of a sore shoulder. The one game he did play in, he made two poor throws and failed to even attempt a throw. Based on that evidence, the Twins will have his shoulder looked at today and see what needs to be done. If the doctors determine that he needs to rest and rehabilitate it, or they prescribe surgery, Everett will go on the DL.

My question is, what happens to the Twins' roster if that is the case? My first thought is that he will become the new Wally Pip. If Tolbert continues to play well in his absence, the Twins might just decide that Everett is expendable. I would be fine with that. Tolbert is a much better hitter than Everett will ever be. And he's shown more range, surer hands and a stronger arm than Everett in the early goings.

I was quite disappointed in Everett's defense before the shoulder injury. He doesn't play with much energy or enthusiasm, and I can see the results on the field. An example was in Monday night's game, when Carlos Gomez threw a ball a little low to him at the cutoff position and he tried to backhand it. It was not that hard of a play if he had just squared up on it and caught it. Instead he looked disinterested and, well, kind of girly in trying to avoid being hit by it. That is an example of the nonchalance I have witnessed on several plays this year. He just doesn't look like a Twins player out there, whereas Tolbert is a paradigmatic Twins player--a high energy, hustling, tail buster.

My second question is, with Tolbert at short and Punto the primary utility guy, who takes Everett's spot on the roster during the DL stint? The Twins could use another infielder, and preferably someone who can hit and play the corners. The options (with current AAA OPS in parens) are Brian Buscher (1.020), Matt Macri (860), Chris Basak (.606), Howie Clark (.792) and Alexi Casilla (.523). Buscher has been great in the early goings, but he doesn't help Mike Lamb or Justin Morneau much because he's left handed. Clark has the most versatility and experience. Macri has the most upside, which might lend itself better to playing everyday at Rochester. Casilla and Basak have not performed well enough to warrant a call-up, IMO. I would go with Clark personally.

But I ask you, if Everett goes on the DL, who would you recall from AAA to replace him?

Poll

Who takes Everett's spot on the 25 man roster if he goes on the DL?

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Denard Span

This from yahoo fantasy news and notes on Cuddyer:

“RF Michael Cuddyer tested his dislocated finger Tuesday by playing catch in the outfield, and he reasserted his belief that he will be ready to come off the disabled list Sunday. Manager Ron Gardenhire is skeptical, but said, “Cuddyer could do it. Other guys might not.” Gardenhire said he might be willing to utilize Cuddyer as a designated hitter for a few games if he is unable to grip the baseball sufficiently to throw it as hard as usual. “

So if Cuddy needs to DH a few games, I’d expect Kubel going to right and Span staying in Minnesota as a late defensive replacement and pinch runner. Or worse, Span taking a couple of starts from Kubel.

by TMW on Apr 16, 2008 1:28 PM EDT 0 recs

Cuddyer

Yeah, I was going to say Buscher to replace Everett, but he could just swap with Cuddyer.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 16, 2008 1:38 PM EDT 0 recs

Too many outfielders

I would not favor keeping Span for three reasons:
1. The Twins will need a reserve infielder sooner rather than later if Everett can’t go.
2. The Twins don’t need six outfielders.
3. Denard Span needs to play more regularly than he would as the sixth outfielder.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 16, 2008 2:07 PM EDT 0 recs

easy to solve

cut Craig Monroe

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Apr 16, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

I didn't say it should happen

But I think that’s probably what’s going to happen. They’ve got Punto in the reserve for the infield. It seems like the least feathers ruffled especially if they expect Everett to recover in 15 days.

by TMW on Apr 16, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

If Everett=Pipp...

Tolbert will have a hard time filling in for Everett, let alone filling out the profile of Lou Gherig:)

by Old Twins Cap on Apr 16, 2008 2:28 PM EDT 0 recs

Well, yes, obviously

But the point is, this might just be the best chance Tolbert has to break through and earn a starting job. If he plays well enough in Everett’s absence, Everett could become a bench player for good, or get released.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 16, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Can Buscher play any middle infield? & Re: Span comment

Can Buscher play any 2nd base? He is pounding it pretty good at AAA. If he can play a little 2nd he is the obvious choice…

Span reminds me of a young Jacque Jones. There are probably twins fans on this blog who can’t remember TK and early Gardy and the on the job(ML) growth & development of JJ & Torii but it wasn’t always easy I remember Torii leading cheers in the dugout when JJ laid off a breaking ball and finally walked for once…

Tolbert seems to be a Twins kinda guy- I wish some members of this blog would cut him a little slack…

by Swanee on Apr 16, 2008 2:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Span

I really got to hand it to Span so far. I think he wisely realized that his only chance of staying on this team and differentiating himself from Gomez was to prove he can get on base and not make outs. I’ve been impressed with the amount of pitches he’s seeing and his ability to get a decent pitch to hit. Obviously the career numbers tell a different story, but I’ve stopped cringing so much when he comes up to hit. If only Gardy would hit him 9th instead of 2nd.

by TMW on Apr 16, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree

About the 9th spot. If he were batting 9th and getting on base it would make a lot of sense for Gomez to try his bunt hitting tactics then. Then he would at least be advancing the runner when he can’t beat out the throw.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 16, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

I vote for

Span. He has put together a lot of excellent at bats and I believe he is ready to play up here. Maybe you go with Cuddyer replacing Everett, although I don’t know how you get them all playing time. Maybe it is time for that platoon system in center many of us talked about in spring training. Perhaps Gomez could learn being up here and watching, being coached, in some games. Usually works itself out, but I think Span deserves to stay…but not if he is going to sit.

by roger13 on Apr 16, 2008 5:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Is it too late to say...

Gomez? We all have heard the “electric” and “exciting” and “talented” comments along with the annoying nickname (lord, did that spread like wildfire), but can we stop for a second and focus on the “raw,” “shaky,” and “aggravating” adjectives for one minute? I’d rather not have two light-hitting outfielders in the lineup, and I agree with TMW and roger that Span’s approach at the plate has really been encouraging. Plus, Span is wasted in right field, he knows center field and he should have an opportunity to play it.

If nothing else, we could send Gomez to AAA and have him learn how to bunt effectively, thereby not giving up Major League outs while he learns how. At this point, I’d rather see Span in CF than Gomez. Just my opinion, I’d like to hear others.

by Neil on Apr 16, 2008 6:01 PM EDT 0 recs

I agree with this

But I don’t think it’s going to happen. Gomez has been striking out bunting, taking terrible angles to the ball in the outfield, swinging at balls in the dirt and doing everything else to make himself look like he doesn’t belong in the majors. But he’s stolen 9 bases and isn’t hitting bad enough for them to send it down.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Apr 16, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

Punto for Dilbert tonight

Oh, well, so much for my Wally Pip theory.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 16, 2008 7:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Last I checked

Gomez led the team in extra base hits, stolen bases, was tied for the lead in runs scored, and was third in total bases.

Do you really want to send down one of the best players on the team this month in order to keep a poor man’s Jason Tyner?

by Old Twins Cap on Apr 17, 2008 12:50 AM EDT 0 recs

Poor man's Jason Tyner

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending Span but a poor man’s Jason Tyner? That would insinuate a rich man would have Jason Tyner. I just thought that was kind of funny. I really don’t see why people want Span, sure he can draw a few more walks but other than that what does he offer. I think Gomez plays as good if not better defense, probably better. He has a lot more chance to jack a few long ones or hit doubles with his speed. Plus, he’s leading the league in stolen bases and hasn’t even been on base that often.

Gomez is obviously raw and will be frustrating at times but give him awhile to try and adjust to the bigs before we send him packing for a guy who at best will be a career outfield backup and could likely end up as a AAAA guy.

I know the start to the season has been somewhat encouraging but say it with me now, re build ing.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 17, 2008 4:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

Don't skew statistics

Old Twins Cap, your post is a textbook example for how people make stats support their own theories. Let’s not forget to mention that Gomez leads the team in plate appearances, mostly due to his position in the batting order, and leads the team in strikeouts by a wide margin as well (Gomez: 16, Kubel, 12, Morneau & Young tied for 10). Gomez “leads” those players in total bases by a count of 1, 2, and 6 respectively. There’s a reason people use percentages to analyze statistics in baseball. Using raw numbers to evaluate a player’s performance doesn’t work. I would argue with you that Gomez is far from one of the best players on the team this month, further pointing out that his on-base percentage is TENTH on the team, and the man is our LEAD-OFF HITTER.

I really didn’t want to get into an argument about statistics, because that’s not my point and such a small sample size (2+ weeks of his first full-time season) wouldn’t point to his future growth anyway. My point is that Gomez, though an excellent “raw” player, has a lot to learn about playing professional baseball. I came to this deduction through 70 % observation and 30 % statistics. In my opinion, just from watching him, Gomez does not look major league ready.

And halfchest, to your point, if we are in a rebuilding process, then it serves the team better to keep the future star of the team (Gomez) in the minors in order to prolong his service time. Yes, he’ll be challenged more to improve at the major league level. But, then what do we do with Span? I argued at the beginning of the season that the team could benefit from playing Span on the Major League level as a gamble to show him off as trade bait. If the kid does well in the majors, someone wants him, we can get something for him via trade, and the future of CF (Gomez) is ready in the wings for next year. If Span struggles and no one shows interest, we have Gomez in the wings anyway. It’s win-win for the team.

However, if people want to continue to be “excited” when he steals a base, that’s fine. It is cool. I must admit, though, that as a fan I will continue to be more frustrated with his poor at-bats and bad fielding routes than I will be excited by his stolen bases.

by Neil on Apr 17, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

I don't need to skew statistics

Gomez has been one of the Twins better players so far this year. Period. You can use numbers or you can use stories or you can use your eyeballs.

Remember, baseball is not played on a game board. Those are real live human beings on the field, and they are being stressed and challenged at every point by the opponent. In fact, the level of stress and challenge you bring to the table is what dictates what your opponent can or will do.

On that score, Gomez has been a game changer already. He forces teams to do things, offensively and defensively, that put the Twins in a better position to win games.

The fact that he has arguably been the team’s most productive right-handed hitter just makes the idea of sending him to the minors in favor of Span not only ludicrous but non-sensical.

And remember that Span is a rookie as well, and fully as capable of looking as taking bad routes, bad at-bats and generally making costly mistakes. At this point, he leads Gomez in that category.

by Old Twins Cap on Apr 18, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gomez has been one of the Twins better players so far this year. Period.

After two 1/2 weeks, yes he has. My point is that I don’t think he will continue to be with his current approach.

Span is a rookie as well, and fully as capable of looking as taking bad routes, bad at-bats and generally making costly mistakes. At this point, he leads Gomez in that category.

Yes, he conveniently had two errors last night, playing right field (a position he’s never played) in arguably the hardest major league ballpark to play right field in.

I am not a Denard Span fan or apologist. I want to see Gomez succeed just as much as you do. I agree that Gomez does put a lot of pressure on a team when he gets on base. My overall worry is that once pitchers figure him out, he’s not going to be able to get on base to do what he does best. In that regard, I’d rather have a productive hitter who can get on base more often than a productive runner who’s going to start being outmatched by MLB pitching soon. Gomez is the future, and I’d hate to think we’re allowing him to learn bad habits because we gifted him a starting spot out of the gate. That’s all.

by Neil on Apr 18, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Okay, I see your point

But, baseball is not about “concern” or “fear”, and I don’t see much fear in Gomez. Yes, I don’t like it when he has a weak at-bat. But, he’s a player who wants to win, and players need to play. I think he will develop better at the ML level than in the minors, mainly because he has true ML skills right now, and the ability to help the Twins win games right now.

He will only get better as he contributes and learns and grows. And, he is very fun to watch. To send him down would be a disservice to him, and especially, to his teammates, who recognize that he has the skills to help them win. Right now.

by Old Twins Cap on Apr 18, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Fair enough.

Excellent debate!

by Neil on Apr 18, 2008 6:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

This is about what I was thinking. Span is a decent player. But let’s not think he can play as he did in his first few games for a whole season. The last couple of games show that he’s nearly as raw as Gomez. And he doesn’t have nearly the upside of Gomez.

Also, I’m a little surprised that people wanted to send Gomez down during his first slump. Slumps will happen. He needs to make adjustments. If you don’t let him make adjustments, but bench him or send him down at the first sign of trouble, you do more damage to his development than anything. If he showed an inability to make the adjustments necessary and he continued to press, then perhaps you have to do something. But 0-12 is way premature for that. And the last two games, he has showed that he is making adjustments. He is taking a lot more pitches and hitting a lot of balls hard. He’ll be fine. We just have to be patient. He’s way ahead of Hunter at this age.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 17, 2008 10:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not reacting to a slump

I’m reacting to his overall play and approach.

by Neil on Apr 17, 2008 10:13 AM EDT up 0 recs

Approach

Gomez’s approach is both positive and negative. He swings hard, so he can hit the ball a lot harder than Span. Span takes more pitches, but he also takes a lot of quality strikes. If you haven’t noticed, he’s been striking out and walking at about his minor league rates (16.5% K rate, 7.5% BB rate last year in AAA), which are not much better than Gomez (16% K rate, 8% BB rate between AAA and MLB last year). The difference is, Gomez has a lot more power, so he will do better overall.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 17, 2008 10:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

Also

I don’t subscribe to the general theory that a patient approach is good for all hitters. Most hitters need to be patient to be successful. Some hitters need to be aggressive to be successful. Young and Gomez fit into this category (as do Hunter and Vlad). I don’t think you send him down to change his approach. You work with him up here to refine his approach: To be more patient in some situations, for example. But you don’t take away his aggressiveness. The Twins tried to do this with Hunter, and they had to send him down as a result. Only after he stopped trying to be a different hitter than he is did he have success. That’s a cautionary tale for Gomez.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 17, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up 0 recs

We don't really know that

Some hitters need to be aggressive to be successful. Young and Gomez fit into this category (as do Hunter and Vlad)

I agree that there are hitters who depend on being aggressive, but do we really know that this is the case for Young and Gomez? These guys are still really young; I doubt they’ve really tried being patient hitters and seeing how that works for them. I’d like to see them give plate discipline a shot, especially if they’re not producing especially well they way they’re approaching things now. If it doesn’t work, fine, but there are a lot more great hitters who are patient than great hackers, and if Gomez doesn’t become a power threat or develop plate discipline, he’s Juan Pierre with a throwing arm.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 17, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

It's tough to change your approach

I see your argument, but now’s not the time or place to change your fundamental approach. The time to do that is in the minor leagues. And like it or not, we acquired both players as hackers to play in the major leagues this year. They can learn more patience, but they cannot become Joe Mauer-type hitters without risking really messing them up.

I think that’s one of Billy Bean’s fundamental insights. He drafts guys who demonstrate patience in college because he knows first hand how hard it is to try to develop patience if you’re naturally high strung. The conventional wisdom is you can learn patience. He claims that there are limits to how much patience you can learn. I agree with him there. Neither Gomez nor Young have ever shown much patience, and they’re not likely to start now. But I think the Twins will take their production anyway.

And Gomez already has more power than Juan Pierre. They are totally different hitters. Pierre is a left-handed slap hitter who flares the ball over the shortstop. Gomez is a right-handed dead pull hitter who drives the ball to left and left center. Juan Pierre has never hit a broken-bat ground-rule double. Just to put it in context, Juan Pierre’s last full minor league season in AA he had an SLG of .380. In Carlos Gomez’s last full minor league season in AA he had an SLG of .423. They are not even close.

Denard Span is much closer to Juan Pierre than Gomez. It’s funny to me that people are so keen on Span when his numbers suggest at best he’ll be Juan Pierre. And in dissing Gomez, they say, “He’s the next Juan Pierre!” Another guy who hits a lot like Span is Nick Punto. He’s patient, and he does get his walks. But he strikes out a lot because he’s constantly in the hole 0-2. That is where Span’s patience gets him far too often, imo.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 17, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's easy to forget...

...because we don’t get to see many of their PA, but by the time players reach the majors, even if they reach the majors quickly, they have played a ton of baseball. Going into this season, Delmon has over 2,000 professional plate appearances and Gomez had ~1,500 professional plate appearances. Baseball players are creatures of habit, and it’s really tough to totally overhaul someone’s approach at the plate. Sammy Sosa is the example that everyone points to as a player who was really impatient and developed a more patient approach at the plate, but he’s always the example for a good reason—he’s damn near the only example of someone totally overhauling their approach successfully.

I would have preferred that the Twins try to get some more patient hitters at some point along the line, but once we got Young and Gomez, we got their approach, too. Like with Hunter, a lot of the time it is going to be frustrating, but if we’re lucky, they’ll be able to post good results despite their style.

by ubelmann on Apr 17, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

To be clear

I was putting my +1 on halfchest’s comment.

Neil, It’s too early to draw meaningful conclusions from the statistics. There are some disturbing trends. And there are some encouraging trends. Let’s give him a couple of months of plate appearences before we startr drawing conclusions.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 17, 2008 10:14 AM EDT 0 recs

That...

was the point of my post.

by Neil on Apr 17, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

From my above post:

I really didn’t want to get into an argument about statistics, because that’s not my point and such a small sample size (2+ weeks of his first full-time season) wouldn’t point to his future growth anyway. My point is that Gomez, though an excellent "raw" player, has a lot to learn about playing professional baseball. I came to this deduction through 70 % observation and 30 % statistics. In my opinion, just from watching him, Gomez does not look major league ready.

by Neil on Apr 17, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

I disagree that Gomez doesn't look major league ready

Even if we disregard Gomez’s stats this year, he was forecasted by PECOTA to be roughly a replacement level hitter this year—and ZiPS, etc., were also in line with this. Now, there’s nothing spectacular about replacement level hitting, but with his contributions on the basepaths, he becomes something more than replacement level on offense (though not by a whole lot.)

On defense, Gomez takes bad routes at times, but he’s not so lost out there that I would consider him non-major league caliber. His speed can be used to compensate for some of the poor routes, and hopefully by working with Jerry White and the other coaches, he can improve in that area.

Gomez does a lot of frustrating things, but I think he’ll be good enough to keep up an 80-85 OPS+, which will be fine for a CF with his SB. And if he doesn’t, then he’ll get shuttled back to Rochester at some point, which also won’t be the end of the world.

The Twins think that Gomez will develop better in the majors than in the minors, and for a team that has been reluctant to promote a lot of players, that means something to me. I would rather have them concentrate more on making sure a player’s development doesn’t stagnate, than focusing on one year of service time six years in the future. If they made a system-wide habit of pushing players out of the minors early, then I think we would start to see the service time concerns play a big, meaningful role, but I don’t want to see too much emphasis on the service time issue. If all we were concerned about was service time, Slowey wouldn’t have been considered for a major league rotation spot last year or this year, Liriano should pitch the entire year in AAA, and Baker should have spent all of last year in AAA. But six years is an eternity in baseball, and I don’t mind the Twins focusing a little more on the near-term than that.

by ubelmann on Apr 17, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up 0 recs