Ruminations on a Poor Offense

by Eric in Madison on Apr 25, 2008 4:28 PM EDT

As we know, the Twins have had problems scoring runs in the early going. Their 3.6 runs per game is only better than the Royals in the AL, masking what has been a good start by the rotation. We also know that it's early. Is that all it is? Small sample? Will things get better? What's been going on?

I think it's almost a certainty that things will get better, if by better we mean they will score 3.6 runs per game. That would result in 583 runs for the year. I'm confident it will be better than that.

Still, there are some numbers that indicate to me some deep seated problems that I suspect will hold back the offense. First: they aren't having bad luck on BABIP. They are currently T-4 in the AL in BABIP, at .301. This is true even though they have the lowest LD% in the league. We can hope the LD% increases a little, but I doubt they will see their BABIP increase significantly.

Here's where the problem is: they are 3rd worst in the AL in P/PA, last in the league in walks, and they have the highest GB% in the league. This scares the hell out of me, frankly. They are swinging early and hitting ground balls, Not a good combination. It results in a relatively high number of singles, lots of early outs, and lots of double plays. (They are 5th in GIDP despite being last in OBP). It also results in relatively easy outings for opposing pitchers, since they are getting a lot of outs in 1-3 pitches.

What it does not result in is any power at all. In a game that requires patience and power, the Twins have neither. And while I'm confident things will get somewhat better, it's difficult to see where the significant change comes from. The Twins have an approach that doesn't encourage patience. They lack the players to hit for a lot of power.

I said at the beginning of the year I thought they would score 725 runs--a low total just a few more than last year. I wouldn't change my prediction at this point, but I'd be comfortable taking the under.

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Twins offensive woes

It was tough to see Bill Smith talking about giving up pitching for bats & then signing Adam Everett. As one of the newer but probaly older members I wasn’t sure what all your acronyms stood for. But I do know Adam Everett for Bartlett and now Nick Punto starting at shortstop are not offensive improvements. Were any of you watching the 0-3 loss to the A’s Wed. night when Nicky P. took strike 3 looking while we were down 0-2? Yeah I too love to watch him play in the field and hustle his buns off but after watching Bonser pitch so well how did you feel watching Nicky step into the box? It was sad to see the A’s sign Frank Thomas? I believe Terry Ryan not signing him 2 years ago when he was begging the Twins to sign him was the difference between losing to Oakland and maybe having a little hope to win it all.

by Swanee on Apr 25, 2008 5:01 PM EDT reply actions

acronyms

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls In Play. A stat that is pretty wildly random in even medium sample sizes, but regresses to the mean pretty heavily in the long term. What Eric was saying is basically that we’ve been getting more favors on bloop hits than getting boned on sharp liners right at fielders.

LD%: Line Drive Percentage. Line drives go for hits a heck of a lot more often than any other kind of ball in play, so a high LD% is very good for a team.

P/PA: Pitches per Plate Appearance: Self-explanatory. As Eric said, we’re merrily hacking away, more’s the pity.

The other ones I think you probably know. Hope this helps =)

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Apr 25, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Good points

Nice diary, Eric. Part of our problem, of course, is DJ Cuddles having been out, which guts our middle of the lineup a little bit. Still, things have been bad. Did someone let Ullger start talking to the hitters again?

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Apr 25, 2008 5:28 PM EDT reply actions

Fun fact:

Mike Lamb is actually worse on offense alone so far this year than Punto was at the same time last year. Oh wait, maybe that’s not such a fun fact.

by ubelmann on Apr 25, 2008 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

"Funny" is the word you were looking for...

...as in “painfully funny”.

by Jesse on Apr 25, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny

As in “falling out of a tree” funny, or “bleeding hemorrhoid” funny, or “rope burn” funny. It’s always funnier when it happens to someone else.

It is funny that Punto has done nothing since becoming the everyday shortstop. He’s reverted to his “keep the bat on your shoulder and hope for a walk” approach, which has led to several called third strikes on pitches right down the middle. Now that’s funny.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 25, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

True dat -

Lamb’s been awful thus far. I don’t think his stinkitude will hold for the year, though.

What’s hurting us thus far …

leadoff hitter who’s OBP is almost 100% hits – and he ain’t batting .380.

#3 hitter who’s not shown any pop – sure, I’d like HR’s, but gimme some doubles, Joe.

Cuddy being out as long as he has.

D. Young’s quest to face 1 pitch per at bat. And the lack of pop.

marginal pop up & down the lineup.

Right now, we have a team that doesn’t work counts, doesn’t take walks, doesn’t hit for extra bases & grounds into a bunch of double plays. Teams that need three hits to score one run don’t win games – period.

by BD57 on Apr 27, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions