I have a cold...

by dwintheiser on May 11, 2008 11:27 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

...and the only prescription is...less Kubel!

When it seemed in the early season that Ron Gardenhire wanted to play veteran free-agent signee Craig Monroe over Twin-developed Jason Kubel, the blogosphere responded with a "Free Jason Kubel" campaign. Kubel got his chance, doubling in his first at-bat of the season as a pinch-hitter against the Angels, then sharing time in right field with Denard Span after an early-season injury to Michael Cuddyer. At one point, Kubel and Justin Morneau were the only Twins to have hit homeruns in 2008 as the Twins went nearly three weeks into the season before getting their first right-handed homer of the year.

At the time of Kubel's third homer, a comparison of the numbers between Kubel and Monroe seemed to justify the blogosphere's demand for Kubel to be given the primary DH role

          AB     H     HR     RBI     AVG/OPS

Kubel   36      9      3       9       .265/837

Monroe 18      2      0       2       .133/545

Since then, each player has had at-bats in close to the same proportion: Kubel 81, Monroe 49, but the difference between them has almost completely reversed:

          AB      H     HR     RBI     AVG/OPS

Kubel   117     26      4      18       .222/597

Monroe 67      19      4       13      .284/852

Monroe has fewer RBI than Kubel, but in nearly half the plate appearances -- normally that would suggest that Monroe has been hitting in more RBI opportunities, but the numbers on baseball-reference.com show that's not actually true: BBR says that the typical major leaguer in 2008 with 118 PAs has hit with 74 runners on base, resulting in 13 RBI; Kubel has hit with 81 runners on base resulting in 18 RBI, which is an above-average rate.

Monroe, not counting the 9-8 win in which he hit 2 homers, had 9 RBI while batting with 39 runners on base, while the typical major-leaguer with 65 RBI has 7 RBI
with 41 runners on base. Monroe was ahead of both the league average and Kubel's rate even before counting the 4 RBI on two homers he hit on Sunday.

Jason Kubel may end up being a better hitter than Craig Monroe over the course of his career, but right now Craig Monroe is hitting far better than Jason Kubel.

What's the opposite of "Free Jason Kubel!" "Put Jason Kubel Back In The Box?"

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Call in a specialist

Maybe the Dali Lama can sit down with the Gardy and discuss the benefits of putting Kubel back on the bench since the “Free Jason Kubel” campaign has failed.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on May 12, 2008 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Every time I watch Kubel...

Every game I’ve seen him start this year, he has been hitting th eball hard, but at people. This has no scientific or SABRmetric basis, just going by my own eye, But What I see is, he scorches a line drive, and it is right at someone. It seems to me that this is happening at a quite regular basis for Kubel.

On the other hand, most of those hard hit balls come very early in the at-bat. I have noticed (again, only observation from the games I’ve seen) that he doesn’t see many pitches in an at-bat.

by Neil on May 12, 2008 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's Kubel's rep...

...to the point where I even predicted he’d hit balls hard while drawing the 0-fer in last Friday’s game (or was it Saturday?)

While I’m sure you’ve seen Kubel hit the ball hard, Neil, the overall numbers seem more pessimistic on him: The Hardball Times has Kubel hitting 22.1% of his batted balls for line drives in 2007 while just 2.5% of his fly balls were infield flies; thus far in 2008, Kubel is hitting just 12.6% of his batted balls for line drives while 9.1% of his fly balls have been infield flies. Both of those 2008 numbers are way out of whack when compared to the rest of his career thus far, so Kubel should be expected to improve in both categories. The question is, how soon?

Meanwhile, Monroe is currently hitting 26.1% of his batted balls for line drives, a rate that far exceeds his career high (in 2005 when he hit .277/768 for the Tigers). Interestingly enough, Monroe hits infield flies at a much higher rate than Kubel, even so far this year (18.8% infield flies this season, though he’s had just one year below 11%). You’d expect Monroe to cool down at some point, but again, how soon?

I can’t say I’d play Monroe until his and Kubel’s BA/OPS numbers flip again, but I think it’s pretty much a no-brainer to say that Monroe is, during this stretch of the season, hitting the ball a lot better than Kubel is.

by dwintheiser on May 12, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the ticket...

That was exactly the kind of evidence I was looking for. I was just going by my eyeballs, and I knew it probably wasn’t that reliable. I’m glad you came back with the line drive percentage, that’s what I was interested in.

Good to know all around. I wouldn’t mind seeing a lefty-righty platoon at this point, which is what looks like might be going on.

by Neil on May 13, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately, you are missing some of his starts

He’s had some rough games, including 4 multi-strikeout games. People seem to recall what they want to. You recall loud outs—and there have been some warning track shots, but I also recall hits that were bloopers. The double Kubel had in his first at-bat in the season opener, for instance, was a late-swing, opposite-field blooper that dropped 60 feet in front of Garret Anderson and bled to the left-field foul line.

It is nice that Monroe and Everett are now the Twins’ source of power, because Morneau is again on one of his extended power outages. He has a home run and two doubles in his past 18 games. He’s had four multi-hit games this month, but just one extra base hit. Since his 5 RBI game in Texas two weeks ago he has managed 6 RBI in 13 games. He’s not walking and his SA is barely above his BA.

It’s so bad that what we saw Sunday has been the norm for weeks now. Taverez went 2-0 on Mauer and had zero intention of giving him anything to hit. Opposing pitchers prefer to walk Mauer and take their chances with Morneau, and all the opponents are focusing heavily on Mauer. Yet the guy is showing why, if he can stay healthy, he’s going to be something.

The Twins are 6-3 this month against Detroit, Chicago and Boston. Mauer is batting .444 with a .559 OB% and and .556 SA. He has produced 20 percent of the team’s runs this month. He has struck out 10 times in 131 PAs this season. He’s been on base at least once in every game he’s played for a month now, and I believe he’s been on base in all but three games he’s played this season. He’s also the best baserunner on the team.

It’s not hard to figure out what occurs in the pitchers’ meetings before every series. Don’t let Mauer beat you with his bat.

by Johnny Safron on May 12, 2008 1:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pfft

“Don’t let Mauer beat you with his bat”????
That’s what they say in the meetings? I doubt it. What they probably say is, “for a guy that big, his power numbers are pathetic.” After that, “pass the Red Bull.” If Morneau is in a “extended power outage,” what is Mauer in? A lifetime power outage?
As Howard pointed out today:
Home Runs
Everett 1
Mauer 0
Young 0

by wcooley on May 12, 2008 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And of course power is the only thing that can make a hitter dangerous

by ubelmann on May 12, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer apologists unite!

If you caught Mauer in the act with your best girl, would you say, “thanks for thinking so highly of her, and me!”

I just don’t understand how people constantly lament the fact that the Twins lack power, but then give our #3 hitter a free pass. Forgetting that he is a catcher, what is his VORP as compared to other #3 hitters?

I end up sounding like a Mauer hater. I’m not. I appreciate his many skills and hope he can improve in a couple facets.

by wcooley on May 12, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This makes no sense

So, you’d be just fine with his production if he were batting second instead of third (which he was until Cuddyer got hurt)? Your ire should be directed at Gardenhire, not Mauer.

And since you asked, here are the players with the most AB in the #3 spot for each team in the AL, along with their BA/OBP/SLG and HR:
Mauer: .330 .409 .426 0 HR
Thome: .220 .351 .439 7 HR
Hafner: .215 .312 .347 3 HR
Sheffield: .208 .367 .333 2 HR
Teahen: .263 .338 .361 1 HR
Ortiz: .241 .345 .434 7 HR
Upton: .297 .387 .430 3 HR
Markakis: .267 .400 .452 7 HR
Abreu: .303 .369 .451 4 HR
Rios: .280 .348 .427 3 HR
Barton: .237 .342 .348 2 HR
Guerrero: .268 .344 .420 3 HR
Hamilton: .303 .354 .548 7 HR
Ibanez: .291 .341 .483 6 HR

While all of those players have more homers than Mauer, exactly one of them (Josh Hamilton) has a higher OPS+; I’d assume a batting-order-based VORP would come out similarly.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 12, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why should we forget that he's a catcher?

He’s a catcher for crying out loud, and that’s a huge part of his value. Forgetting for a moment that Ozzie Smith was the best defensive shortstop in the history of the game, would he be a Hall of Famer? Forgetting for a moment that David Ortiz has no defensive abilities, wouldn’t he be the best shortstop ever? Forgetting for a moment that Joe Nathan is a pitcher, how do his contributions to the team stack up?

Mauer currently has the best VORP on the team, and the best VORP of any catcher in the AL. With Posada, Varitek, and Rodriguez all aging, Mauer is the best catcher in the AL. (Victor Martinez is also very good, but I think that Mauer’s defense puts him over the top.)

The whole “let’s compare him to #3 hitters” issue isn’t about Mauer-it’s about the team. So far this season, the team has gotten absolutely nothing, zero, nada, zilch, out of of right field, left field, third base, and DH. Less than nothing in some cases. And that’s why I can lament the Twins’ lack of power. We’ve been so starved for DH production for so long that we have to mark it down on our calendars when the DH hits more than one home run. We’re getting a lot of offense out of our catcher-that’s hard enough to do—we ought to be getting power out of positions where it’s not that hard to get power.

Let’s play a quick game: Let’s look at C, 1B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH. We’ll put down the Twins’ HR and the median HR in MLB at that position (just the AL in the case of DH):

0 Twins, 2.5 median - Catcher
6 Twins, 5.5 median - 1B
0 Twins, 5 median - 3B
0 Twins, 5 median - LF
2 Twins, 4 median - RF
6 Twins, 5.5 median - DH

Morneau, Monroe, and Kubel are barely keeping up with the median performance at their position in HR, while the Twins are 12 HR down at 3B, LF, and RF—and it’s not like those hitters are hitting for a really high average or a good on-base percentage.

So my question isn’t about comparing Mauer to other #3 hitters, it’s why our left fielder is hitting 7th in the order. And why is the third baseman hitting 8th in the order? Oh yeah, because they’ve given the team absolutely nothing this year.

Mauer’s the #3 hitter because the Twins passed on David Ortiz way back when and still haven’t been able to replace him in any fashion whatsoever. When your all-OBP, no-HR, All-Star catcher is hitting third, that’s an indictment on the rest of the team, not an indictment of Mauer.

I’m not going to sit here and say that Mauer’s obviously going to hit for power some day, but right now, without any additional power, he’s the best catcher in the league and the best position player on the team. Mauer’s lack of power ought to be a concern, but there are about 4,239 different concerns that are more pressing at the moment.

by ubelmann on May 12, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad we agree

Mauer’s lack of power is a concern, especially since they are building the team around him as the team’s best player and soon will be spending a lot of money on him.

I thought the one at-bat he had last night was telling. If I remember right, it was a hanging breaking ball on the inside half. Mauer inside-outed for a blooper to left. Great piece of hitting. On the other hand, that’s a ball I’d like to see him hit over the baggie and put the game out of reach. Especially against a team like the Red Sox who are almost never out of the game because of their home run power.

by wcooley on May 13, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who was the last Twins position player with no flaws?

I mean, it’s great that you’d like for Mauer to improve, but show me the list of players in the league who have no flaws. Mauer has a ton of defensive value, hits for high average, and works a lot of walks. Even looking through Twins history, we have:

Torii Hunter - Made a ton of outs-hit for an OBP 84 points lower than Mauer’s when adjusting for park and era. (And the Twins did pretty well giving him a big 4-year contract that kept him here through his prime.)

Kirby Puckett - Didn’t walk that much, park and league-neutral OBP 46 points lower than Mauer’s. Career park- and league-neutral ISO of .153 is only barely higher than Mauer’s .130. Ratewise, Mauer’s arguably a better player than Puckett was.

Rod Carew—Hit for even less power than Mauer, even adjusting for era.

Tony Oliva - Park and league-neutral OBP 40 points lower than Mauer’s. Hit for more power by 42 points of ISO, but was also forced to a corner for a large part of his career.

Harmon Killebrew—Limited to playing corner positions, had much less defensive value than Mauer.

And some more perspective, let’s check out some career OPS+ numbers:

Harmon Killebrew* - 143
Mickey Cochrane* - 128
Johnny Bench* - 128
Kent Hrbek - 128
Bill Dickey* - 127
Joe Mauer - 126
Yogi Berra* - 125
Ernie Lombardi* - 125
Roy Campanella* - 124
Kirby Puckett* - 124
Carleton Fisk* - 117
Gary Carter* - 115
Ivan Rodriguez—111
(*HOF)

So Joe Mauer isn’t hitting as well as Harmon Killebrew—a first ballot 1B/3B. That sure makes me worried about building around him.

Mauer doesn’t need to be a sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famer to be worth the money he’s going to be getting. For that matter, if you’re worried about the Twins overpaying a position player, take a look Justin Morneau’s way. He has a lower career OPS+ than Joe Mauer, since he doesn’t get on base all that much, has very little defensive value, and his power sometimes goes away for months at a time. His power is supposed to be why the Twins need him, and he’s barely keeping pace with league median HR at his position so far this season.

If we’re not going to be happy with a good defensive catcher with a 126 OPS+, what exactly are we going to be happy with?

by ubelmann on May 13, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Antony

I like what Rob Antony recently said (thanks for reminding me David): He likes to look at what a player can do rather than focusing on what he can’t. Mauer can hit. he can catch, he can throw and he can run. He’s a four-tool player, and those are four top tools.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 13, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

I never realized that Hrbek had a higher career OPS+ than Puckett – I learned for the first time a few years ago how good Hrbek was at drawing walks (it’s not something a kid in the late 80s/early 90s paid attention to), but I never realized that it was to such an extent that he out OPSed Kirby.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 13, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There used to be an ethic...

...that great hitters in baseball were the ones who struck out very little; check out Pete Rose’s career for probably the best example (Rose routinely struck out less often than he walked, though interestingly, the season in which he drew over 100 walks while striking out only 54 times was not one of his best seasons overall), but Ted Simmons, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Don Mattingly were all considered outstanding hitters and simply didn’t strike out all that much. As a result, they also tended to walk more than they struck out, especially if they were power hitters.

The two guys who fell into this mold who were the least respected as hitters, at least in the 80s, IMO, were Hrbek and Mike Hargrove. Heck, go take another look at Hargrove’s career batting numbers in baseball-reference.com; the guy never struck out more than he walked, had four seasons with over 100 walks (and a fifth where he drew 97), and finished his career with an OBP of .397.

If Hargrove were playing today, he’d be playing first base and batting second for the Oakland A’s, and they’d be laughing all the way to another division title.

by dwintheiser on May 13, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Administrative question

Is anyone else having problems loading this site since the changeover? It takes forever for me to bitch about Mauer. Is that a sign that I have too many Air Supply Mp3’s on my computer or are other people encountering the same issues?

by wcooley on May 13, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes

I’m getting longer load times, but not always. Usually the site loads up as quickly as ever, at least for me.

by Jesse on May 14, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stats question

Ubelmann,
While I usually enjoy and learn from your stat-generating robot abilities, this post is leaving me puzzled. First of all, but putting Mauer in context with those players, aren’t you breaking your law of sample size? Those players put up those numbers over long careers, and especially for catchers, I’m guessing their stats declined as they wore down. In addition, by using OPS+, aren’t you evading the raw numbers that would show that Mauer has missed significant time with injury and his positives overplay OBP at the expense of SLG?

Puckett seems to be an interesting comparison because he is so unlike Mauer in terms of pitch selection, but also matured from a singles-hitter to a power-hitter over the course of his career, much to the benefit of his team I would argue.

by wcooley on May 15, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I used Mauer's career OPS+

And I didn’t say that he’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer, I just used them to point out that, you know, maybe-just maybe-his production is acceptable just the way it is. (And 1500+ PA is not a small sample.)

Look, if you want to bitch about Mauer, go ahead. I’m not going to be a part of that conversation anymore, though. Mauer has been a good player, is a good player now, and will be a good player in the future. If you’re looking for a perfect player, I’d suggest looking for a new team to root for.

by ubelmann on May 15, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hostile

If you could devise a stat that shows that my desire to see Mauer hit for more power + my doubts that teams are pitching around him to get to Morneau = I should cheer for a different team….now that would be something.

by wcooley on May 16, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I change my mind

You’re definitely the blond in that avatar.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 16, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zing!

(rimshot)

by wcooley on May 16, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Pffft:" the sound made as the air goes out of your argument

"Don’t let Mauer beat you with his bat"????
That’s what they say in the meetings? I doubt it. What they probably say is, "for a guy that big, his power numbers are pathetic." After that, "pass the Red Bull." If Morneau is in a "extended power outage," what is Mauer in? A lifetime power outage?

Power is not just home runs.

I guess in your pitchers’ meetings you would spend time on Harris and Everett. They’ve got more home runs than Mauer.

In Mauer’s first five seasons his OPS-+ exceeds that of first baseman Mark Grace, and Grace was 4 years older than Mauer when he debuted. And he played a power position. You don’t like Mark Grace? Well, there are only 99 guys with more hits in the history of baseball. So he did OK for himself.

You make it sound like Mauer is 6-foot-5 Scott Stahoviak. When Scotty made contact it sounded like his bat was always broken – and the ball went about as far as you’d expect with a broken bat.

When Mauer triggers that swing, that ball pops. He’s the one guy on this team the opponents want to keep off the bases.

Oops. Mauer just scored on a fine base-running effort. Like I said, best hitter and best base runner on the club.

by Johnny Safron on May 12, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool quote box

That is all. I don’t really pay attention to the words, just the pretty graphics.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 12, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mauer and Young

For me it looks like Mauer is doing what he always does, get singles and a few doubles to the gaps. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Mauer swing like he is trying to hit a HR.

Young is more of a concern for me. He at times looks like he is trying to hit one out and only gets a single. If I were the Twins I would really be scratching my head wondering what has happened to Young b/c right now he doesn’t even look like he has HR hitting potential at all.

by caluofmn on May 12, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Zoinks

I knew Kubel had been rotten lately, but I didn’t realize it was sub-600-OPS rotten. From looking at his splits so far, I’m wondering if a pure platoon with Monroe would be beneficial – granted he’s only had 31 PA against lefties, but they’ve been a particularly execrable 31 PA: 4 singles, 2 walks, and a sac fly, with 9 Ks.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 12, 2008 1:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What about giving Delmon a couple days off

and starting Monroe or Kubel in left, with the other one DH-ing.

I like Delmon’s defense, but would it help him to rest a little bit and watch how our other power-hitters, like Everett, get it done.

by Old Twins Cap on May 12, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

roflmao

“our other power hitters, like Everett, get it done.”

This statement made me laugh and cry a little bit, but mostly laugh. I couldn’t agree more that they maybe should just give the guy a day off. I’m also glad they moved him down in the order instead of remaining stubborn about it.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on May 13, 2008 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Streak Protection

The wrapup from last night’s game mentioned that Delmon has a 202-game consecutive game streak (it was in the context of him staying in the game after hurting his ankle). I wonder if that plays into the fact that he hasn’t gotten a day off yet.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 13, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess Kubel was listening

How about that. Pinch hit home run, then 2-4 with 2 doubles. I’m going to assume the corner has been turned, and we should expect to see .350/.450/.600 for the rest of the year. It seems obvious to me, anyway.

by snolls on May 14, 2008 11:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs