Maybe a different lineup?

by caluofmn on May 18, 2008 9:45 PM EDT Comment 5 comments

I'm not a baseball expert but we all get to play one on the internet. I was wondering if the Twins could have better results with their lineup by moving players around. My lineup is not based on stats (I'm sure that will be obvious) but it is based on watching at least some of every game this season (of course we all remember different things from said games) and the idea that a lead off hitter only bats leadoff once in the game.

So w/out further ado:

Harris

Mauer

Young

Morneau

Cuddyer

Kubel

Lamb

Gomez

Everett

I think Harris knows how to put together good abats. He has some power and again he would bat "leadoff" only once. Mauer is arguably the best hitter on the team. Why not give him an extra 20 to 30 abats this season. Young while showing no power at all, he does seem to avoid any long dry spells so he could keep the rallies going once Harris homers and Mauer singles up the middle. ( a guy can dream can't he?) Young would also break up the two lefties. Then comes Cuddyer and Kubel, Lamb and Gomez, with Everett batting 9th b/c he has to bat.

I know most will hate the idea of Gomez batting 8th but it seems like he is batting 1st b/c that's what guys with speed traditionally do. Is that a good enough reason? He has shown some power and regardless where he bats if he gets on base his speed will still be there. He is so raw that maybe he shouldn't have the most atbats over the course of a season?

More than anything I'm curious at the comments this lineup might provoke. It's round about way for me to learn more about the game.

WINTWINS!

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Not sure how much of a difference it would make

I haven’t seen anything that suggests that tweaking a lineup would actually improve a team’s offense, save if there’s some psychological factor where a player truly believes he hits better in one position than another.

With that said, you’ve got some interesting ideas here, and I’d only really make one tweak - switch Gomez and Everett. Gomez doesn’t get on base as often as he should yet (though he’s still a very young, raw player), but having him hitting in front of Everett would seem to be a problem - if Gomez gets on with two out, it’s unlikely that Mauer will get to bat in the same inning, seemingly wasting the chance, and if Gomez gets on with less than two out, well, Gomez is one of the few players on the roster who doesn’t need a bunt to get himself to second base after a walk or single, so there’s little point in sacrificing Everett and giving up an out (and a chance at a big inning).

Hitting Gomez ninth basically sets him up as a second lead-off man; if he doesn’t get on, no harm done, since you don’t expect the #9 hitter to get on anyway. If he does, so much the better, since he won’t clog up the basepaths for the top-of-the-order guys.

by dwintheiser on May 18, 2008 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Just not the one yesterday

Craig Monroe is not a number 3 hitter. Gardy said that was the worst game of the year. It started with the guy writing out the line-up card.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 19, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who else?

I can understand that Monroe is not an ideal guy to put in the 3 hole, but who else should’ve been there? Mauer and Gomez were off; Harris and Delmon were 1-2, so the only other real option was Cuddyer, and he hasn’t been any better than Monroe this year. I may very well have done that same thing, were I in Gardy’s shoes.

On the primary topic, I’d like to wait and see whether Delmon’s recent success is for real before I start throwing him up higher in the order at the expense of Go-Bot. Also, unless the power shows up, he’s no better than Mauer in the 3 hole anyway.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 19, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cuddyer

I don’t think you look just at this year’s raw numbers. Cuddyer is just a much better hitter than Monroe.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 19, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup tool

I tried to play around a bit with David Pinto’s lineup tool:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

Using the stats from this year only, we get the following optimal lineup (I focus on the 1959-2004 model, since offense nowadays is down a bit from the 1998-2002 levels):

1. Mauer
2. Morneau
3. Cuddyer
4. Young
5. Gomez
6. Everett
7. Harris
8. Kubel
9. Lamb

I think it’s striking that all the optimal lineups have Mauer batting 1st and Morneau 2nd. Let’s just get as many PA to our two best hitters as we possibly can.

Instead of just limiting myself to this year’s numbers, I ran the model once again with the 2008 Marcels for the above-mentioned players. Now the optimal lineup looks like this:

1. Mauer
2. Morneau
3. Young
4. Cudder
5. Lamb
6. Everett
7. Harris
8. Kubel
9. Gomez

Note that Marcel is pretty high on the SLG for many of the players.

The real lesson from the lineup tool, I guess, is that lineup order doesn’t matter much, as dwintheiser stated.

If you want, you can try messing around with your own favorite lineups:
http://www.tinyurl.dk/3711 (this year’s numbers)
http://www.tinyurl.dk/3712 (Marcels)

by PhoenixV on May 19, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs