Sansevere's baseball sense (or lack thereof)

by cmathewson on May 2, 2008 1:28 PM EDT

Bob Sansevere of the PioneerPress is not a baseball guy. I don't typically read his columns, so perhaps I've missed some insights. But when I do read his columns, more often than not, I find myself scratching my head. Here's what he had to say about Carlos Gomez in a recent notes column.

Gomez hiked his batting average to .265. He's still young, still a streaky hitter. But he sure can run. That stolen base was his 11th of the season, and he energized the crowd even though he was thrown out at home after his steal of third. Gomez is one of the most exciting base runners in the game and will be universally recognized as the most exciting of them all if he gets his average above .275 and keeps it there.

I don't disagree with the sentiment that, if Gomez starts getting on base more often, he could be a star. But that's not what he said. He said, "if he gets his average above .275 and keeps it there," he could be the most exiting player in baseball.

First of all, if he hits .275 and doesn't walk at all, he's still a poor lead-off hitter. As anyone besides Bob seems to have figured out, batting average is not the important stat for a lead-off hitter, on-base percentage is. He needs to either hit .350 or start walking a few times a week to be an adequate lead-off hitter. The latter is typically easier, unless he can bunt for base hits twice a game.

Secondly, Gomez has only 102 at bats (104 plate appearences) this year. So the notion that .275 is much better than .264 is just nonsense. In fact, if one of his liners for outs found a hole rather than a glove in his first 102 at bats, he would be hitting .275. Let me say it again for emphasis: The difference between his average and .275 is one hit! Over the course of the season, that's six hits. It is almost pure luck whether he collects six more hits this year.

What is not pure luck is whether he learns to take a walk every other game or so. If he can learn to do that, he will be a star in this league. I'm not saying it will happen over night. But progress in plate discipline is what we have to keep an eye on--not whether an extra bloop falls in once a month.

Bob. You get paid to know this stuff. Time to go back to school.

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It's an old-school way of thought.

And you said it yourself, he’s not a baseball guy. I’m not trying to be mean, to you or to Bob, but if I’m looking for insight on baseball it won’t be from Bob Sansevere.

Right now Gomez has been extraordinarily lucky with his BABIP-some of that having to do with his ability to reach on bunts. With a LD% of only 13%, you’d expect his BABIP to be about .250-but it’s .342. Based on that data, if he’s only six hits away from hitting .275 then I’d say he’s lucky to be that close.

None of this takes away from your point that if he learns to take a walk (which would actually be a sign of improved strike zone judgement and plate discipline, which is tough to improve upon when you’re encouraged to be aggressive), he’ll be a much more effective leadoff candidate. I hope he does. It’s been said a thousand times but he has all the tools, and I’m looking forward to seeing him get better.

by Jesse on May 2, 2008 5:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Unique

I think he’ll always have a high BABIP and a low LD%. He’ll beat out a lot of infield hits. Given his speed, he’s hitting about what he should. It’s his K/BB numbers that scare me.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 2, 2008 6:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

That's true enough,

he is a unique player. And you’re right—a player with his skills certainly could maintain good BABIP without the line drives.

That K/BB thing will get better—he’s young and just needs more seasoning.

by Jesse on May 2, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think so too

I think he’s a quick learner, and we’re already starting to see some improvement in plate discipline despite the numbers. He’s seeing more pitches, for example.

This isn’t about Gomez. I love Go Go and I’m glad I get to watch our best prospect develop at the majors on TV, rather than needing to follow him through Gameday or box scores.

This is just a screed against Sansevere. It’s way past time that guys who get paid to write about sports learn the basics of the sports they write about. It’s not as though OBP is anything new. This is not a new-fangled stat like VORP or xFIP. This is an accepted stat throughout the industry.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 2, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

With all due respect...

I don’t think Sansevere was saying that GoGo would be a great or good lead-off hitter, he was just saying that he would a very exciting player watch if he learned how to get some more base hits.

I think everyone can agree that Jose Reyes is probably the most exciting player in the majors. Agreed? Mostly in part to his amazing speed. I am not comparing the two together because Reyes is far and away better than Gomez. Even though Reyes is having a down season so far, he is still very exciting.

Reyes is OBP is .307, not great, but better than GoGo’s. Gomez’s OBP is .279, not good at all. Reyes AVG. is .250, not good for him. Gomez AVG. is .265, hopefully will get better. All I am saying is that GoGo has been very fun to watch the whole year, minus the SO’s and if he weren’t with the Big Club this year it would be less exciting to watch them play, evening while being a die hard fan.

I am not a fan of reading the Pioneer Press, I normally read the Strib, but I kind of agree with Bob. Watching Gomez run down to first on a bunt attempt is very fun to watch, especially in person. If he could learn how to utilize the turf in the dome like Luis Castillo did, Gomez’s OBP and AVG. would be better. I think he is also exciting to watch when he is tracking down balls and diving for them in the field. I think his defense has been better than expected by many this year.

Like mentioned above, he has all the tools. We just have to be patient with him and let him develope in to the kind of player that he becomes; exciting or not.

Also, I don’t really know why I compared Reyes and Gomez. I guess it was because Reyes is considered a very exciting player and Gomez isn’t that far behind stat wise; except for SO’s and walks. A couple good games by Gomez and his OBP will be up to .300. Easier said than done.

by ahope on May 2, 2008 6:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Quote

“will be universally recognized as the most exciting of them all if he gets his average above .275 and keeps it there”

I don’t read that the way you do. When “universally recognized” and “most exiting of them all” are pretty strong statement. I would think he would need to do better than a .280 OBP to achieve that level of hyperbole, lead-off hitter or no. I love Go Go as much as the next guy. But let’s keep it in perspective. He’s on a pace to strike out 175 and walk 12 times if he continues to play every day as a lead-off hitter. That’s historically bad. Yeah, he’ll be exciting doing it. But those numbers need to improve. He doesn’t need to coax a few more hits to fall in. He needs a far more radical transformation to be universally recognized as the most exciting player in baseball.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 2, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know...

It was this sentence in Cmath’s quote that gets me:

...will be universally recognized as the most exciting of them all if he gets his average above .275…

The thing is, Gomez is already exciting to watch. But Sansevere seems to be drawing a correlation between getting one more hit on season so far (or six over a whole year) and being recognized (universally) as the most exciting baserunner in the game. The problem is that no matter how exciting you are on the base paths, it’s not going to matter if you can’t get on base. Sansevere’s statement that hitting .275 magically transforms Gomez into that player just doesn’t make sense.

By a certain standard, a guy who has a batting average of .275 is considered to be a pretty decent hitter. I think that’s probably the standard Sansevere was working off of, and probably the basis of his assumption that Gomez would achieve a new level of success should he reach that mark. We just know that batting average isn’t the only standard by which we judge how a guy gets on base, in order to be that exciting player.

by Jesse on May 2, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

sorry, not trying to gang up

looks like i was constructing my response at the same time as cmath.

by Jesse on May 2, 2008 7:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

We are all talking about learning the strike zone...

...so that he gets more walks. It will also raise his batting average a lot. Reason for this is that he strikes out on a lot of pitches that aren’t close to the strike zone. If he starts taking those pitches and turning them into “ball 4,” his hits will stay about the same and his at bats will come down…ie, his batting average will go up. I don’t want to comment on the Sansevere thing…just that I think he can/will become a very good leadoff hitter who is really exciting.

by roger13 on May 3, 2008 3:54 PM EDT 0 recs