Livan's Trade Market Heats Up

• I've been saying for a while now that the Twins would be wise to try and trade Livan Hernandez this summer. They probably have enough good young arms to contend with or without him, and letting him walk at the end of the season for nothing makes little sense when he could bring back a quality minor leaguer or two.
The counter-argument that I always get is that trading Livan when the team is in contention is tantamount to quitting. I couldn't disagree much more with that assessment, though in large part, that stems from a belief that you should never focus on any one season as a small/mid market team when you could do the organization a service in the long run. The Twins made this mistake last season - one where they were technically not 'out of it,' but didn't seem to have the horses to run with the Indians or Tigers. Indeed they didn't and trading Luis Castillo, a move decried both by fans and some players, made very little difference in the outcome of the season. That being the case, the Twins might have been well served to try and trade off some other veterans (Silva and Hunter) who they saw leave via free agency for either nothing, or the relative pittance of a couple draft picks.
In not trading Hernanez, its this mans belief they'd only be repeating the mistakes of the past.
In that vein, Buster Olney writes;
"It makes all the sense in the world for the Twins to explore this: In a season in which there is little available pitching, there will definitely be a market for someone like Hernandez, who always battles and seems capable of throwing 250 pitches. One team that could use him: the Atlanta Braves, who have been asking around about starting pitching."
Shocking *sarcasm* mostly because I have been pitching the idea of a swap for Braves third base/shortstop prospect Brent Lillibridge since about the same time the season began. Lillibridge isn't an all-star in the making, but he's a guy the Twins could use at third or short for the next 5 years almost immediately. Besides, Livan doesn't have enough value to bring in any top-end prospects, but Lillibridge is the perfect fit. Olney also cites the Astros as a possible landing spot for Livan. I hadn't given the Astros much thought heading into this year due to their status as unlikely to contend, but here we are, and they're contenders. The same could be said about the Cardinals, though they have received very good pitching so far this year, despite having an unimpressive rotation on paper.
As far as the Astros are concerned, the Twins would likely take aim at players such as 24 year old third baseman Chris Johnson, 22 year old right fielder Mitch Einerston, 23 year old starter Bud Norris, or reliever Ryan Thompson. Though frankly, I can't say any of those players strike me as capable of getting a deal done.
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I’d be ecstatic to see Lillibridge in a Twins uniform; I’ve followed him in the minors and I’ve been generally impressed by him
by LonghornedTwin on May 29, 2008 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He isn’t going to hit for a ton of power, but you van play him almost anywhere other than catcher and he’ll be above average. He also should hit for a solid average with a good eye at the plate. Sounds like a guy who could be our shortstop for the next 5 or 6 years to me. Nothing special, but its a great fit for both teams.
Corey Ettinger writes for Infieldirt.com, a site that is primarily Twins related, but which has frequent notes, stories, and thoughts from other teams around baseball, with a focus on the AL Central. If you live in the Fargo area, you can listen to Corey on the Derek Hanson show every Tuesday at 3:30 on AM1660.
by Corey Ettinger on May 29, 2008 9:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Crazy talk
Way too early to talk about trading Hernandez. Despite leading the AL in hits allowed, he has the ability to eat innings, even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. He’s a gamer, he’s creative, and he doesn’t so much attack the strike zone as manipulate it.
The Twins value his role as senior ambassador to Latin players and being the one true pitcher on the staff. He still gets his crummy fastballs by good hitters on location alone.
If they move Boof or take him to the pen, the truth is: you never have enough pitching. And Livan = beaucoup innings.
by Old Twins Cap on May 29, 2008 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Meh, I tend to be of the belief that with Baker, Slowey, Perkins, and Blackburn all pitching well, we have enough solid arms. Bonser has been better than his ERA suggests, and the Twins still have guys such as Mulvey, Humber, Duensing, and Swarzak they could turn to if they needed another option. None of those guys ar premier arms, but they could deliever enough solid outings.
To me everything in baseball is a cost-benefit analysis:
Coming into the season, I would not have expected the Twins to compete, and really, they’ve played pretty much as I expected, but the Indians and Tigers have seriously under-performed. So while the Twins are certainly in the hunt, I think they’re more pretender than real contender.
So the options are this:
1) Keep Livan for an extra 11 starts down the stretch and watch him walk for nothing. In keeping Livan, the Twins take a chance at the playoffs which will, even if achieved, likely result in an early departure.
2) The Twins trade Livan for a young player or two who can help them in the near future. In the process, they end up losing 3 more games because they go with a less talented pitcher than Livan. They may or may not make the playoffs because of that. But what they have done, is improve the strength of the organization, helping to ensure that the team will be better for the next 5-6 years, and ideally, they’ll have done so by trading from strength, to bolster weaknesses.
To me, one of those options makes a lot more sense. I’d rather risk losing 2-3 more games than I might have otherwise, in order to strengthen the organization as a whole. People obviously fall on either side of this, and usually I find people feel very strongly one way or another. I happen to think that if we could get someone like Lillibridge in return for Livan, it’d be foolish not to do it. He’s a guy who could be an everyday player with us for a long time and help us win a lot more games than Livan could alone.
Just my two cents.
Corey Ettinger writes for Infieldirt.com, a site that is primarily Twins related, but which has frequent notes, stories, and thoughts from other teams around baseball, with a focus on the AL Central. If you live in the Fargo area, you can listen to Corey on the Derek Hanson show every Tuesday at 3:30 on AM1660.
by Corey Ettinger on May 29, 2008 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Plus
There may be added benefit to getting more starts for younger pitchers. We still have a whole pile of pitching prospects who could use starts. Getting people to higher levels will help us establish how good they are. I think its time for a player like Duensing to pitch to major leagues. There will be an adjustment period, but better to have it now, than in 2010.
by snolls on May 30, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lillibridge
I agree that Hernandez wouldn’t bring a five- or even four-star prospect in a trade scenario, but I’m not sure Lillilbridge is the right guy for the job. Is he a strong guy defensively? He’s a career .277/.359/.426 hitter in the minors—not horrible, but not promising either.
Additionally, he hasn’t been taking as many walks and has been striking out more since coming to AA in ‘07. His K:BB ration has been right around 1:3, and this season he’s striking out in more than one quarter of his plate appearances. That’s a lot.
We know he doesn’t hit for power, which isn’t a big deal for the kind of player we’re looking for. But at the same time, he isn’t a guy who really makes a lot of solid contact anyway. His LD% at every stop since A-ball in 2006: 15% (A), 15% (A+), 19% (AA), 15% (AAA ‘07), 22% (AAA ‘08). Granted he’s hitting the ball harder this year (meaning that in some ways, he might be hitting better than his .197/.261/.254 line suggests), but since it’s quite a bit higher than what we’ve seen the last few years I’m more likely to think it’s an exception to his rule. Optimistically we could say he’s turned a corner and has adapted to AAA pitching, but it’s a little early to bank on it.
For comparison’s sake, minor league lines of our current in-house options:
Brendan Harris (age 27 in ‘08 campaign): .294/.365/.458
Matt Tolbert, age 26: .280/.345/.404
Matt Macri, age 26: .280/.349/.463
Brian Buscher, age 27: .285/.358/.412
Brent Lillibridge, age 24: .277/.359/.426
Lillibridge is a couple of years younger, but it’s not as though his development is pointing to a stronger offensive future than any of these other guys. I’m afraid he’d just be another replacement-level middle infielder to throw on the pile.
On his defense, I found these links (I tried to keep these reports recent, from 2008):
From MVN, a prospect profile on Lillibridge
This scouting report from TSN says his defense needs work, but that he’s a quality utility infielder.
Dugout Central calls him a solid player, and gives credence to the idea that the Braves would trade him, since his two primary positions see him blocked.
Unless there’s something I’m missing, and I certainly could be, because I’ve never even heard of Lillibridge before you brought him up, I just see him as another Brian Buscher. If we do trade Livan, and it’s for an infielder, I’d like for one of his skills to at least stand out from who we already have in-house.
by Jesse on May 30, 2008 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lillibridge from everything I’ve heard IS a very good defender, capable of playing any position in the game besides catcher as I noted above.
he difference between myself and you, would seem to be that I view him as a shortstop long-term, instead of a third baseman. So com[aring him to Buscher, Hughes, or Valencia doesn’t strike me as reasonable. He probably wont be a great hitter, but he has contact abilities, a solid eye at the plate, and good defensive skills.
I see a shortstop who can hit .275-.280 with a OBP in the .340 range, and 10 homers while playing a solid if unspectacular shortstop.
That might not seem like much on the face of it, but shortstops that can combine an ability to hit with an ability to field are exceedingly rare, and I see Lillibridge as just such a player. Like I said, I don’t expect him to be an all-star, and you wont get an all-star type prospect for Livan, but Lillibridge fills a need we have at short, both offensively and defensively, making this a good trade idea.
Corey Ettinger writes for Infieldirt.com, a site that is primarily Twins related, but which has frequent notes, stories, and thoughts from other teams around baseball, with a focus on the AL Central. If you live in the Fargo area, you can listen to Corey on the Derek Hanson show every Tuesday at 3:30 on AM1660.
by Corey Ettinger on May 30, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he can play short....
....he still does not project as a major league hitter. His ISOP is consistently below 100 and his strikeouts are consistently around 25%. That’s a bad combination. Last year, he struck out 119 times in 524 ABs. Combine that with a low walk rate and mediocre overall numbers and he is not really a prospect.
I would rate Plouffe ahead of him. His ISOP is consistently in the 130-150 range. His K rate is consistently in the 16% range. His BB rate isn’t much better than your boy, but the other numbers are considerably better. Plus, we know Plouffe has the tools to play short at the major league level.
If the Twins are going to acquire a short stop, he should be significantly better than Plouffe.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 30, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very valid point, well said.
Corey Ettinger writes for Infieldirt.com, a site that is primarily Twins related, but which has frequent notes, stories, and thoughts from other teams around baseball, with a focus on the AL Central. If you live in the Fargo area, you can listen to Corey on the Derek Hanson show every Tuesday at 3:30 on AM1660.
by Corey Ettinger on May 30, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a fan
I’m with Jesse. I don’t know what this guy has that Buscher or Marci don’t have. Plouffe, Hughes and Valencia have at least as much upside as this guy.
I like the Rays as a trade partner. If the Rays get to the All-Star break and find they’re one veteran starter from making the wild card, maybe they’d be willing to part with Brignac, who suddenly finds himself stuck behind Bartlett. He’s the right age (22), he can hit and field his position (SS), and he might be available.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 30, 2008 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
.209/.272/.269/541
I knew he had OK numbers for his career, but I hadn’t checked his AAA numbers this year. So you would trade a valuable commodity for a corner infielder who has a 541 OPS in AAA?
Yeah, right.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 30, 2008 5:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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