Better Than Expected, or Just Better?

by dwintheiser on May 31, 2008 5:49 PM EDT

We're one-third of the way through the 2008 regular season, and the Twins are still performing better than expected. At what point does 'better than expected' turn into 'better'?

I was tempted to start off this essay by writing that the Twins have shown themselves to be a better team than I expected at the start of the season. After all, it's getting close to mathematically impossible that I'll actually be able to collect my beer from cmath on the 20th, given that the Twins would have to go 3-13 over their next 16 games to reach the 'eight games below .500' mark I predicted for them on June 16. The more I think about it, though, the more I wonder how confident we can say that the Twins are really better -- there are more than a few people (including Howard Sinker and John Bonnes) who would certainly argue that they are, but I still can't shake the feeling that something's not right. After all, very few pre-season projections gave the Twins much if any shot of winning the AL Central or, honestly, even being an average ballclub, in the sense that one can call a .500 ballclub 'average'. Should we really abandon our pre-season projections based on just one-third of the games played in the year?

I'm going to ask and try to answer a few basic questions about the Twins in the hopes that I'll clarify my own thinking and either be able to join the bandwagon with a clear conscience, or conversely be able to stick to my guns that the ballclub will not effectively compete for a 2008 playoff spot.

1. Is the Twins offense really this good?

As of the start of play on May 31, the Twins are scoring 4.63 runs per game -- that's the fourth-best scoring offense in the AL, and an improvement of about half a run per game from their scoring rate at the end of April, when they were among the AL's worst offenses. Yet the Twins still are among the worst in the AL in doubles, home runs, and walks. It's possible to argue that the Twins scoring totals don't really reflect their actual offensive ability.

A simple comparison will help demonstrate why:

		 Runs	   Avg	  OBP	  SLG	 OPS

Minn	   	 250	 .267	 .324	 .380	 .704

Toronto	        233	.263	.339	.379	.718

The Jays are hitting just about as well as the Twins, yet have scored seventeen fewer runs, which makes Toronto the fourth-worst offense in the AL while the Twins currently sit at fourth-best. There's no obvious reason, just looking at these raw numbers, why the Twins should have so many more runs.

The biggest reason, of course, is situational hitting: the Twins are hitting .311/845 with runners in scoring position, which is far and away the highest average and OPS in the league in those situations. The Jays, meanwhile, are hitting just .244/647 in those same situations, which is the lowest OPS (but not lowest average) in the AL in those situations. I'd guess nearly all of this difference is luck, for two reasons:

- The Twins batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in RISP situations is .338, also far and away the highest total in the AL, while the Jays BABIP in RISP situations is .274, second-lowest in the AL; differences from the mean in BABIP are usually attributed to random chance.

- If players had the ability to improve their hitting in RISP situations, why wouldn't they try to find a way to use that to improve their hitting in all situations? We're talking about players who've taken steroids, stimulants, and any other swallowable that might enhance their performance; hitters sometimes try to sneak a bat filled with cork or super-balls into the box with them, while pitchers sometimes try to sneak a tack, piece of sandpaper, or slug of Vaseline on their person when they head to the mound. If a batter knew that he could make an adjustment with a runner on second that helped him hit 80 points higher, why wouldn't he try to do it all the time?

And before you say 'well, maybe they do', keep in mind that taken as a whole, players do hit slightly better in RISP situations than they do overall, but not by all that much:

2007 - overall = .271/761; RISP = .275/780
2006 - overall = .275/776; RISP = .276/792
2005 - overall = .268/755; RISP = .273/780
2004 - overall = .270/771; RISP = .272/790

While I'd prefer to see a formal study before drawing conclusions as to why this is true, my guess would be that there are two factors involved, neither of which has anything to do with the batter 'trying harder'. First, pitchers throw from the stretch with runners on, which likely makes them slightly less effective. Second, defenses often position themselves so as to attempt to prevent the runner from scoring as much as to prevent the batter from getting a hit. Given those two situations, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find a typical batter gaining about 20-30 points of OPS in RISP situations.

1a. So if the offense isn't really this good, how much worse should we expect it to get?

Well, let's get one thing straight right off the top -- I think the Twins overall numbers in terms of batting average and OPS are actually sustainable. Morneau's hitting really well right now, but he was better in 2006, as was Mauer. Everybody else who's playing regularly is either right around where his career average predicts, or is actually significantly below his career average (Everett, Cuddyer). About the only player I'd suggest is playing over his head is Carlos Gomez, yet a .286/738 hitting line isn't that outrageous for a talented youngster -- Lew Ford hit significantly better than that in his first full season with the Twins in 2004 (.299/827), and Ford was never considered a top prospect.

What is likely to happen is that you'll notice the Twins are stranding more baserunners instead of pressing the rallies the way they have been thus far. While it would be a fallacy to expect the club to fall equally below the mean in June and July as they've been above it in April and May (the gambler's fallacy, to be precise), it would not be at all a fallacy to suggest that the Twins are more likely to end June having hit closer to the league-average .266/760 RISP performance in that month than they are to match their current RISP performance -- this is called 'regression to the mean', and while it's not guaranteed, it's where to put the smart money. And if they do that, they'll finish June scoring closer to the 4.0 runs per game that Toronto is currently scoring than the 4.6 runs per game they're scoring now.

2. Is the defense really this good?

Let's get another thing straight -- the defense isn't really very good at all. The pitching staff has been reasonable thus far; they're middle-of-the-pack with a 4.32 ERA, though it should be noted that the Metrodome has been a pitcher's park since 2006 and thus this ERA is lower than it would otherwise be. Add in the effects of defense, however, and the Twins are allowing 4.83 runs per game, better only than Detroit, Seattle, and Texas. They're dead last in hits allowed per game, allowing a full hit per game more than the Angels and Royals are (and they're tied for 10th place allowing 9.0 hits per game), and just one strikeout ahead of dead last in the AL, which wouldn't be so bad if it didn't mean that the Twins are relying less on their pitchers and more on their defense to record outs than nearly any other team in the AL, which for a team with the second-lowest defensive efficiency, second-most errors, and second-largest number of unearned runs in the league can't be all that good. Then consider that the Twins pitching staff has allowed more home runs than any other staff in the AL -- it's true: the Twins have allowed 57 homers, while the Royals have allowed 55, the Orioles 53, and the Yankees and Red Sox 52 apiece.

The only saving grace is that the Twins pitching staff has allowed far and away the fewest walks in the AL, more than twenty fewer than the Royals, A's, and White Sox. Even so, they're allowing so many more hits that even the small walk rate still leaves the staff among the AL's worst at baserunners per nine innings.

A lot has been made of Boof Bonser's slow start, but the truth is that the Twins starting staff as a whole isn't as good as it looks: Glen Perkins is 2-2 with a league-average ERA. Scott Baker is 2-0, but his 4.09 ERA is actually higher than the league average, and has been helped an awful lot by the Metrodome:

Baker at home: 16.2 IP, 13 H, 2.16 ERA
Baker on the road: 16.1 IP, 18 H, 6.06 ERA

Yes, it's a small sample size, but it's only unrepresentative in the size of the home/road split:

Twins pitchers at home: 268 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 3.66 ERA
Twins pitchers on the road: 217.2 IP, 1.49 WHIP, 5.13 ERA

And yes, that difference in innings is also a harbinger -- the Twins have pitched much better at home than on the road thus far this season, but they've also played an extra four home games (and will play two more before the current series is up); as the season goes on and the club makes up those road games, odds are the pitching won't perform so well.

So I've reached my conclusion: though I'm unlikely to enjoy a free beer on the 20th, I'll be a lot less disappointed than those fans who've decided that a hot start to the season is reason enough to climb onto the bandwagon, just before the axle starts getting wobbly.

And one last observation: if, despite all this, the Twins do still manage somehow to steal the AL Central without making a signficant free agent move? Then Ron Gardenhire is the best manager in the AL, period. There would be no other explanation.

1 recs | Comment 13 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

That's a good article about Gardy you linked to

I get frustrated at Gardy too, but I agree with the commenter who said we’re in the dark ages when it comes to assessing managerial performance. I find that a lot of his annoying quirks are also lovable, and he’s entertaining and fits well with the whole Twins persona. All in all, I’m glad we’ve got him.

Also, yeah, the Twins were the best team in a horrible division for a few years then had an insane last 2/3rds of 2006. And yeah, maybe they’re outperforming themselves this year too. But it seems like as Twins fans, we’ve had a pretty sweet decade. I’m willing to believe the organization is doing stuff right, as opposed to consistently being lucky.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on May 31, 2008 7:25 PM EDT 0 recs

I wouldn't say that they're consistently being lucky...

...though there’s a certain degree of luck in the 2006 division title.

I think it’s a bit of revisionist history to say that the Twins won 2002-2004 by default because everyone else was rebuilding: yes, KC and Detroit were clearly deep in reconstruction for a few years there (though KC had a surprising run in 2004), and the Indians were trying to figure out how best to transition from their glory days from the mid 90s, but the White Sox were doing their best to compete with the Twins. That the Sox weren’t able to successfully implement their ‘Yankees East’ philosophy until 2005 shouldn’t be held against the Twins.

On the flip side of the coin, if someone did want to argue that the club’s been consistently lucky since 2002, then clearly there’s something going on there. (And if the Twins were lucky in most of the past six seasons, why didn’t that luck last through the playoffs?) Personally, in most things in the world, I’d rather be lucky than good any day of the week.

by dwintheiser on May 31, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

IPA

Just reminding you. It’s my favorite style of beer. Breckenridge double IPA is the best., followed by Bell’s Two Hearted Ale, Goose Island’s IPA, Snake Dog IPA, and Summit IPA.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 31, 2008 10:54 PM EDT 0 recs

Do you speak with an accent?

Maybe I should start calling you ‘Sanjay’?

;)

by dwintheiser on May 31, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

I like hops

My favorite non-beer drink is a G&T, which also originated in India. Summers up here can be brutal, with malaria, scurvy, dysentery, giardia and other maladies. G&T is the best preventative medicine against all that ails you in the summer, especially after coming off a hot lake. But, after a G&T, nothing quenches a thirst like a cold IPA.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 31, 2008 11:44 PM EDT 0 recs

Drinkin' men

I’ll agree with you on the contemplative virtues of the gin & tonic; if I’m doing some serious drinking and beer isn’t enough to fill the bill, a good G&T is the way to go. If I’m in a dive, or notice that the place is tending to use cheap gin, I’ll ask for a bit of extra lime to help cut through the gin, but by and large that ‘piney’ taste is part of what I like about the drink.

And I don’t think India Pale Ale is bad by any means; I just tend to prefer my ales to be nuttier. For a mass-distributed ale, Newcastle is actually very good by my standards, though if Rock Bottom is brewing their brown ale, I’ll take that over the import. Summit’s IPA is good, as is its EPA, but my preference is for their Winter Ale, which obviously only ships in winter and early spring.

Can’t say I rely on beer to quench a thirst, though, especially if I’m paying bar prices for it. In those cases, I’ll start with an Arnold Palmer or two that I can chug guilt-free (an Arnold Palmer is half iced tea, half lemonade), then move on to the beer or G&T as needed.

by dwintheiser on Jun 1, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up 0 recs

Summit

Oatmeal Stout- I had it back when I lived in TC and seriously can’t find one better.

by WITwinsfan on Jun 1, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Arnies

They’re my preferred lunch beverage. I always wondered why they don’t bottle something like that so I can have a couple during the game. I like beer at the Dome, but it’’s so blasted dry in there that I always end up getting a lemon aid and wishing it had tea in it. Just another thing I won’t miss about the Dome.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2008 12:35 PM EDT 0 recs

mmm, arnies

My favorite lunch drink as well, especially since I mostly stopped drinking pop a few years ago. It’s odd, actually; I don’t like iced tea or lemonade all that much by themselves, but together they’re outstanding.

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jun 1, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

great post!

That was a really interesting article—the stats you gather paint a very convincing picture that their wins and losses exaggerate their actual performance. I haven’t seen those stats compiled in one place before and they are very compelling. So I would agree that the Twins would have to improve their performance to remain competitive.

But I will also hold out hope that this could happen. I think Cuddyer will return to decent from awful as his injury recedes into the past; Lamb should continue to play better than he did in August; Young probably won’t get any worse, and could get better; etc. They also have Baker and Liriano on the horizon, so their pitching is more likely to get bettter than worse.

Losing Neshek is a huge blow, but that’s the only real huge downward pressure on their performance. Okay, I suppose Livan is a ticking bomb too. And Blackburn could turn into a pumpkin. Is he really the 15th best pitcher in the league? Still, they have enough options that they won’t have to stick with anyone who really sucks very long. And with Boof leaving the rotation, they can afford one new disaster and still come out even.

Anecdotally, it does seem like the Twins have pulled out several exciting close wins, and they can’t count on that continuing. A sub-.500 record continues to be a realistic option. But since that’s true of every team in the division, I will watch with interest to see how it all shakes out.

But back to this post, I know you sometimes like to amuse yourself by seeing if you can use statistics to support an argument opposite to what the preponderance of the evidence indicates, but I like this a lot better. I think contrarian arguments can be supremely satisfying, but only if you openly acknowledge the evidence leading to the original opinion, and try to explain why the obvious argument is inadequate to explain the totality of the evidence. If you just sweep most of the evidence under the carpet and make a big deal out of what’s left, it can be annoying—I hear all the talk like that I can stand from politicians. But showing that the Twins have scored a disproportionate number of runs given their overall OPS, and hypothesizing that this is explainable by an abnormally high BABIT and RISP, seems like a really solid, penetrating analysis that gets to the heart of the matter. And the comparison to the Blue Jays was also really pertinent. I hate it when people pick out of context a single team or player for comparison to make a skewed arguement that doesn’t represent the big picture. But comparing two teams with very similar hitting stats but with widely diverging runs scored seems like an excellent way to make the point that runs scored aren’t necessarily the best predictor of future runs scored. Well done!

by by jiminy on Jun 2, 2008 12:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Thanks!

This comment made me chuckle, though:

I think contrarian arguments can be supremely satisfying, but only if you openly acknowledge the evidence leading to the original opinion, and try to explain why the obvious argument is inadequate to explain the totality of the evidence.

Given that I used to pen a blog hosted by John Bonnes under the title ‘Contrarian Bias’, I’d have to say that the contrarian thing is pretty deep-rooted for me.

But you’re right—it’s much more satisfying (and potentially accurate) to take a contrarian position when you have evidence to back it up, and you’re able to at least respond to the obvious rejoinders to your argument.

Thanks again for the compliment.

by dwintheiser on Jun 9, 2008 2:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

Lamb in August?

not sure where that came from—obviously meant April…

by by jiminy on Jun 2, 2008 12:52 PM EDT 0 recs

April vs May

One positive sign for hope that gets concealed when you look at offensive stats for the year is the upward trend. Jesse’s piece today shows how basically the Twins sucked in April and raked in May, improving from 99 runs scored to 154. If the May numbers continue, and that’s possible because several people were way underperforming their career numbers in April, the future looks a lot better than if you extrapolate from the year as a whole.

by by jiminy on Jun 3, 2008 10:48 AM EDT 0 recs