Arizona Diamondbacks @ Minnesota Twins GameThread, Jun 22, 2008 2:10 PM EDT

Game 76: Diamondbacks @ Twins

by Jesse on Jun 22, 2008 1:01 PM EDT in Game Threads Comment 14 comments

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Minnesota Twins

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Livan Hernandez	7-4	16	16	1	0	0	0	96.1	141	64	59	13	15	29	5.51	1.62

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Brandon Webb	11-3	15	15	2	1	0	0	99.0	85	42	36	6	25	82	3.27	1.11

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preferred lineup..

This seems to be the most potent lineup that we have. Granted it has only been a couple days. Waiting for Lamb and Everett, is time we do not have..

by MagikLair on Jun 22, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ive Read that Punto is about to be activated, Any Chance the Twins Either A, DFA Lamb, B, Send Down Macri or Buscher or C, DFA one of the Pitcher like Breslow or Bonser?

by Tony_O on Jun 22, 2008 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Livan

Twins are 12-5 in Livan’s starts. Although he certainly sold more tickets, the Twins were 17-16 in Santana’s starts last season.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 22, 2008 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

misleading...

Yes, they may be 12-5 when he starts. He has had ample run support for the majority of his starts. It’s quite a stretch to compare it to Santana and his w/l record.

by MagikLair on Jun 22, 2008 7:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s apples to apples: wins in games started by a pitcher. Errors committed by each team, hits from each team, balks by each team, singles, hit batsmen, who started at catcher, bad luck, good luck, etc. All irrelevant. It’s no different than wins, a time-worn way of measuring pitchers. Indeed, a crucial statistic for Hall of Fame admission when discussing starting pitchers.

We do not ask about run support. Unearned runs suffered. Walks allowed. It’s one thing: Wins. This is one thing: how many times did your team when when you started a game? Being the ultimate object is to win the game, it’s a relevant piece of knowledge. No, it doesn’t tell us about bad luck or good luck or good bullpens or bad ones, it’s just a statistic, and it’s no stretch to compare player A’s wins in his starts to player B’s. And per contract dollar, the Twins are way ahead.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 23, 2008 1:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Usefulness

“It’s just a statistic” indeed – it’s like comparing two batters by the number of times they get hit by pitches. They have something to do with it (crowding the plate, mostly), but there’s a huge part of it that’s determined by forces outside their control.

I guess I understand the sentiment of “A win is the most important thing!” (which is indeed the case), but to suggest that wins alone measure the quality of a pitcher is ridiculous, especially if you’re going to try and claim that Livan in 2008 is better than Johan in 2007. Seriously (forgetting about salary, age, etc.), you’d rather have Johan than Livan?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 23, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't allow yourself to be suckered Beef,

Saffron is trolling.

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 23, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lawyer should never caution someone...

...don’t be suckered. It’s too ironic.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 23, 2008 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Inferences

Always interesting the biases brought to statements on blogs. I never said wins alone measure the quality of pitching. If I did, point that out, will ya? I said people use wins to measure Hall of Fame pitchers. I didn’t even say that’s a good idea, I just stated a fact. You leapt to your own erroneous conclusion.

As far as wins, games won when a certain pitcher starts, RBI,OPS, ERA, OBP, SO/IP, BA, SA, WHIP or any stat, they are all flawed. Steve Carlton has about 450 more career strikeouts than Bert Blyleven. “What’s not to say” that 300 times Carlton got a 3-2 call that should have been “ball four” and that Blyleven didn’t get the call 300 times?

Suddenly Blyleven’s No. 4 on the list, rather than No. 5.

MLB is not a computer game. It’s not a board game. It’s not Fantasy Baseball. So it’s played with real people and umpired by real people and coached by real people and - always overlooked - officially scored by real people. All that whizzes on stats.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 23, 2008 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Flaws

Stats are flawed, but they’re better than the absence of stats. The best stats are those that depend the most on the individual’s ability. FIP, for example, removes the variable of the defense behind a pitcher. So it is to be preferred over ERA (some earned runs are the result of bad scoring or poor range). But is FIP perfect? Of course not. A pitcher can run into a buzz saw, as the Twins pitchers did in Chicago, and his FIP can go through the roof despite the fact that he pitched well. They just hit good pitches, and the ball was flying out of the yard.

The most important thing about stats is not that they perfectly describe a complex game, ‘cause they don’t. Stats are just tools with which to talk about the game without depending on the subjective. Subjective arguments often end in stalemate. Arguments based on stats do not. An argument based on FIP should win over an argument based on wins because wins are the least controlled aspect of a pitcher’s line and FIP is the most controlled of a pitchers’ line.

For the record, their respective FIPs:

Santana: 3.68
Hernandez: 4.46

Based on that, you could make the argument that Livan was a better investment. His cost is relatively low considering his decent FIP.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2008 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sure..

When Livan’s starts he has racked up more wins than Santana. That’s not to say Santana wouldn’t have been 12-5 or better this year. With a completely new lineup. I don’t understand the Castro vs. Bartlett comparison neither.

by MagikLair on Jun 23, 2008 5:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's try it this way:

Santana goes to the Mets. Livan signs on with the Twins. Twins fans in the off-season say, “How in the world can this team win with Hernandez starting in place of Santana.”

Quite easily, as it has turned out so far.

As for your “What’s not to say…?” What’s not to say World War II never happens. So Ted Williams never goes to war. And in 1943 he rips up his knee. End of career. Instead, baseball fans always talk about the years he lost to the war. Had he played those years his career undoubtedly would have ended differently.

What’s not to say applies to lots of things, but those things are theoretical.

The Castro-Bartlett thing was heavily explained. They are more similar than dissimilar in regard to ability, but were treated dramatically differently by Twins fans. Life ain’t fair.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 23, 2008 8:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

somebody likes to hear himself talk..

It’s not just this thread, but Johnny likes to talk. Regardless of the rationing behind it.. Seth talked about this same notion today. http://www.sethspeaks.net/

by MagikLair on Jun 24, 2008 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs