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Checking In

With the Twins riding a more-than-modest six-game winning streak, I thought it'd be a good time to glance back at those we lost over the winter to see exactly how they're doing in their new homes.

Johan Santana, LHP, NY Mets
Contract:  Six years, $137.5 million
2008 Age:  29    Expiration Age:  34


W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
2008 - Johan Santana 7-5 15 15 0 0 0 0 100.2 96 38 34 13 26 91 3.04 1.21

Of Johan's 15 starts this season, 11 have been quality starts, and another two might as well have been.  His two not-as-good starts:  a six-inning, five-run performance (four earned) on June 17, and a 6 2/3 innings performance with five runs (again, four earned) on April 12.  He's gone at least seven innings nine times.  Johan's had an exceptionally good start to the season, and if he heats up in July and August, Mets fans will start pissing themselves because they'll see exactly who they paid for.  Already his home runs allowed rate is down, he's still pretty stingy with the walks, and even though his WHIP is up he's still been very effective.

Would the Twins be better with Johan Santana?  Absolutely.  Well...I take that back.  The starting rotation would be better.  But would the team be better?  Maybe, but maybe not.  It'd mean no Carlos Gomez, which means we'd probably have Denard Span in center field right now.  And while we can never pick up Johan's stats (or Denard's or Carlos's) in '08 and lay them snugly into the Twins' (or Mets') season, we can reasonably guess how the players could have done.  The more difficult part of the guessing game is how their performances, or lack thereof, would have affected game results.  With both Johan and Carlos roughly meeting expectations with their new teams, I'd give this one a push.  The rotation would be better, but I'm not sure about the team.

The one thing I will say:  the Twins are better without that massive contract on their backs.  That much is certain.  Also, he's pitching tonight for the Mets.

Star-divide

Torii Hunter, CF, LAA Angels
Contract:  Five Years, $90 million
2008 Age:  32    Expiration Age:  37


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Torii Hunter 72 275 38 76 21 2 9 37 20 51 9 3 .276 .337 .465

Hunter is on pace to hit just a smidge more than 20 home runs in 2008, but outside of that slight descrease he's had very little (if any) real regression from his career numbers of .271/.325/.468.  Both his walk and strikeout rates are up slightly but neither are worth anything more than just to be noted.  The doubles still come in bunches and, in general, he's been pretty much what anyone should have reasonably expected.

 

Would the Twins be better with this Torii Hunter?  This season, probably.  The Twins could use his bat behind Justin Morneau.  Additionally, while Hunter and Gomez are on opposite career trajectories at this point, I don't believe there's a significant difference in how their defensive capabilities would play to an advantage for either player.  Thinking of the future though, Hunter remaining in Minnesota might have meant no Delmon Young, and quite probably no Carlos Gomez either.  Who knows who'd have been leading off on opening day.  There'd have been no clear choice for the slot, so who knows what craziness could have ensued.

So, while the Twins may have been better on the whole with Hunter this season, I'll say the exact same thing I said about Santana:  the Twins are better without that massive contract on their backs.

Carlos Silva, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Contract:  Four Years, $48 millions
2008 Age:  29    Expiration Age:  32


W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
2008 - Carlos Silva 3-9 16 16 0 0 0 0 92.2 122 63 61 13 16 36 5.92 1.49

 

HA!  Suckers.  There was no excuse for signing Carlos Silva to the contract they did when they did it, and looking at how he's performed the foolishness of that decision is staring the Mariners right in the face.  Granted, there was no way they could have predicted he'd have been THIS bad, but the four-year deal was at least two years too long and the $44 million contract was at least $20 million too much.  With a list of stupid deals belonging to Adrian Beltre (I don't care if he's a star in the field, a $64 million contract was too much after one breakout year), Richie Sexon ($50 million), Jarrod Washburn ($37 million), Jeff Weaver (one-year, $8.35 million) and even Brad Wilkerson ($3 million, cut one month in) it's no wonder the Mariners kicked Bill Bavasi out.  Add Silva to that list.  The Mariners should also be firing anyone who thought these ideas were good ones, because Bavasi couldn't have been acting alone.  While someone had to be ultimately responsible, it takes an entire organization to make bad decisions.

Would the Twins be better with Silva?  No.  Not even if he'd performed to his career numbers, because it would mean Minnesota had signed him to a long-term contract...even if it were worth a more reasonable sum, those years wouldn't be doing the Twins any favors.  That's why they brought Livan Hernandez in--to pitch like Silva for one season at $5 million.

Matt Garza, RHP, TB Rays
Contract:  Under Team Control
2008 Age:  24    Under Team Control Until:  27


W-LGGSCGSHOSVBSIPHRERHRBBKERAWHIP
2008 - Matt Garza 5-4 13 13 0 0 0 0 74.2 71 38 34 8 28 45 4.10 1.33

Garza has had his ups and downs already this season, between the lows of getting in a shoving match with his catcher and not getting the strikeouts you'd expect, to the highs of a pair of seven-inning, zero-run performances and a 10-strikeout game on May 28 against the Rangers.  He's currently seeking professional help for focus, but we know what Garza is capable of.  If he can find a way to harnass his aggression there's little doubt of what heights he could achieve.  So while he certainly isn't having the season you'd expect, he's still only 24 and will have plenty of opportunities to mature into the player he can be.

 

Are the Twins better without Garza?  It's a toss-up.  He and Young are both immensely talented and have high ceilings, although Matt hasn't been the power-pitcher and Delmon hasn't been the power-hitter the pundits think they can be.  Whether it's for this year or the future, I can't answer this question with any certainty.  Give them a few years to develop and we'll get back to that one.

Jason Bartlett, SS, TB Rays
Contract:  Arbitration Eligible
2008 Age:  28  Arb-Eligible Through:  30


GABRH2B3BHRRBIBBKSBCSAVGOBPSLG
2008 - Jason Bartlett 70 244 23 60 5 1 0 17 13 38 16 3 .246 .292 .275

Jason's troubles at the plate have been documented on this site recently, but for conversation that's a bit closer to him, head over to DRays Bay.  Suffice it to say his offense isn't what anyone would have expected it to be, and even if his defense is better than who he replaces, there's bound to be some disappointment not just from the fans and organization, but from Bartlett himself.

 

Are the Twins better without Jason?  Considering the way he's played, yes.  And although we can't be positive that he'd be just as underwhelming if he were in Minnesota, it's possible that there would have been no Delmon Young without his involvement.  There certainly wouldn't have been the need for Adam Everett or Brendan Harris.  I suppose my answer is that it's a cross between believing he'd be performing better with the Twins, and in saying that the Twins likely wouldn't be any better off with him simply because he's not an impact player with the bat...even if he wasn't sucking it up with a sub-.600 OPS.

The Others

There are just a few to skim through here.  Jason Tyner is 0-for-2 with the Cleveland Indians, and hitting .232/.326/.292 with triple-A Buffalo.  Luis Rodriguez is in the San Diego organization where he's been playing shortstop at triple-A, and is batting .314/.392/.443 in 70 at-bats.  He's on the Padres 40-man roster, but hasn't been up with the big club yet this season.  Of course there's Lew Ford, who's playing for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan.  He made their opening day roster on March 26, was dropped on May 2 for roster readjustment, and was subsequently re-added on May 17th to "strengthen the bench".  The Hanshin site has no stats, however, and I'm finding it impossible to find out how he's done this year.

Pretty sure the Twins are better without these guys.  Or, at least, we're not any worse.

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Hi

Good article Jesse. Just one thing I don’t understand.

When you say that we’re probably not better off with Johan because we would have Denard Span in center instead of Gomez, I just can’t figure out how that evens out. I would expect span to have numbers on par with what Gomez has this year, with less power but a higher obp. Obviously Span is probably pretty close to that ceiling and Gomez is a long way off, but for this year, I’d think these two would be a push. Now, the difference between Johan and the guy who essentially replaced him, Livan, is about as big of discrepency as you could find.

If we would have kept Johan (which would have been an incredibly stupid move for the future) we would have had a pretty solid team this year. Johan and our rotation minus Livan looks pretty good to me.

by lookatthosetwins on Jun 23, 2008 8:03 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Livan's run support

If you look at how Livan has pitched and the run support he has gotten, replacing him with Johan would have added 2, max 3 wins to the season keeping everything else equal.

Of course everything else is not equal. It’s tough to project Denard Span at the major league level, but I think he would be slightly worse than Gomez. He wasn’t impressive or horrendous during his call-up. He would definitely steal fewer bases and would definitely hit for less power. Gomez has gotten some key hits, and key home runs. Span might be a win or two worse than Gomez, or might be about the same.

The point is that there is no way to say with any confidence whether adding Santana and subtracting Gomez would have added any wins to the season thus far. It might have, it might not have, but the current 40-36 record is surely within the 90% confidence interval.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jun 23, 2008 8:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Run support is a worthless statistic

If you look at how Livan has pitched and the run support he has gotten,

Althought it’s never surprising to see “run support” used to illustrate a pitcher’s performance, it’s surprising that no one ever correctly categorizes it with statistics such as “game-winning RBI.”

Run support is useless in gauging pitching performance.

Hernandez has wins this year of 11-1, 13-1 and 2-1. That’s nearly 9 runs a game of support. Of course, he needed just 2 runs per game of support.

And actually, he did not personally get 9 runs a game of support.

Take that 11-1 win. Livan left after 7. The score was 8-1. So he got 8 runs of support. Matt Guerrier got three runs of that support, as he pitched the top of the 8th, and the Twins scored three in the bottom of the 8th.

That’s right: run support is so stupid that all the runs in a game are considered support for the starter. Here’s the definition: Run Support (team’s total runs scored in starts, avg. is per 27 outs used)

Livan Hernandez is a good pitcher. Only 15 active pitchers have more wins. He’s proved his worth in Twins’ wins of 3-2, 6-4, 5-0, 5-4, 11-1, 13-1, 7-3, 2-1 and 5-3 ; and proved his worth in a 3-2 loss.

Johan Santana is a great pitcher, as his outings in Mets’ wins of 7-2, 6-4, 7-2, 5-4, 5-2, 7-4, 5-3, 6-1 show, and he further proved his greatness in Mets’ losses of 3-1, 5-3, 4-2, 3-1, 5-4, and 5-2.

We see here that Santana is more consistent because he’s better, or better because he’s more consistent. Or both. But Santana being better than Livan is not measured by run support, nor is the worth of any pitcher.

Run support is so worthless that if I pitch through the top of 7 and am lifted for a pinch-hitter trailing 2-1, and my team scores 9 times in the bottoms of the 8th and 9th innings, I won’t be credited with my team’s 10-1 win, and my run support will be recorded as 10, even though I wasn’t in the game when 9 of those runs scored.

Meanwhile, you could be staked to a 5-0 lead, start to give it away through 7 and leave the game ahead 5-4 in the 8th with no one out and runners on second and third. The bullpen saves the game, and you have a 5-4 win on the books.

So I allowed a run, pitched seven and left trailing 2-1 in a 10-1 win. I have a no-D, and 10 runs of support showing on my card. You’ ve got a win, even though you damn near blew a 5-0 lead, and the books show just five runs of support. To people who believe in run support, you appear to be the best pitcher, even though you are not.

Don’t ever use run support as a stat.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 24, 2008 11:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not the best person to jump in here for a variety of reasons,

first and foremost because my math (statistics) abilities border on the totally incompetent, however I will at least say that I suspect no one is dumb enough to try and use run support to:

illustrate a pitcher’s performance

or gaug{ing} pitching performance.

Certainly Aaron Fix didn’t use run support that way. Again, I am not the best person to elaborate on how run support can be useful in comparing pitchers or (more appropriately) comparing the meaning behind two different pitchers’ win-loss record.

However, I will jump in to let you know that a great many of your comments are overly harsh, critical, rude, obnoxious, and boorish

Your last sentence, “Don’t ever use run support as a stat.”
is all the proof needed to support those adjectives, even if Mr. Fix had misused run support as a stat.

I think a lot of people on this site (although I will speak only for myself) would appreciate your comments a lot more if you could include a little more wisdom-based restraint and a little less judgemental admonishment.

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 24, 2008 11:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Really

no one is dumb enough to try and use run support to: illustrate a pitcher’s performance
or gaug{ing} pitching performance.

OK then: What is is used for?

by Johnny Safron on Jun 25, 2008 12:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True.

But Livan’s also won 8 games. I’m not sure how many we’ve won in his starts, but overall I’m not convinced Johan alone would make much more of a difference than a win or two, tops.

Although that might put us in a tie for first at this point…

by Jesse on Jun 23, 2008 8:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't care...

..,about Johan Santana being gone now. At least we got someone for him, and despite the criticism of Mr. Smith, I like the fact that the Twins can occasionally score some runs, based on his “risk-taking.” I thought the teams’ ability to score runs, especially in critical situations had been miserable for the past couple of seasons. As a fan, I have been much more interested in the Twins this year.

I was never a Torii Hunter fan; he squandered far too many opportunities compared to the times he came through big, so I am satisfied with the player we have on the field (more-or-less).

Even RG has been mildly more tolerable this year. I can’t say I love the guy, but I have been able to stomach him to this point.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jun 23, 2008 9:45 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

PS: Lew Ford's data

Since I am in Japan, I guess it falls on me to update everyone on Lew Ford. (To get the most up-to-date stats, you need to conduct your search in Japanese.) In any case, you can check his profile page yourself if you wish:

http://www.hanshintigers.jp/data/profile/55.html

If the data looks too daunting, here is the breakdown: He is hitting .220 has three homeruns and nine RBI. He has 118 ABs and has 26 hits, 13 walks and hasn’t been beaned (not popular in Japan).

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jun 23, 2008 10:01 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

?

Lew’s not popular in Japan? Or are beanballs unpopular?

by Hoya on Jun 24, 2008 1:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think what he meant is

that Japanese fans appreciate a player’s ability to get on first by taking a pitch in the ribs. Not necessarily logical, but lots of things we fans appreciate, and or speculate about, isn’t the most logical.

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 24, 2008 12:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

remember

If we had kept Johan then you could say good bye to Nathan as he would have been traded for sure. How good would our bullpen be right now if that happened?

by doofus on Jun 23, 2008 11:52 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good timing

given that santana gave up a grand slam to an AL pitcher tonight, the trade looks fantastic!

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jun 24, 2008 12:18 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Relations

I still say the Franchise handled the entire situation like a bunch of amateurs.

But actually, I’d like to bring up an entirely different issue here. I was listening to Public Radio and heard about a study done on baseball and circadian rhythms that found a noticeable difference when a team travels to another time zone, increasing as they travel farther away. So the Yankees flying out to Annaheim and playing the Angels have their chances of a lost increased (I can’t remember the exact number I believe it was somewhere between 5-10%) because their rhythms are off. It takes about a day or so to acclimate for each time-zone passed, and it might explain why you lose the first two games and win the third, or split a 4 game series as by that time you are essentially a team from that timezone by then. They specifically did the study with baseball because of all the teams, timezones, and games.

So, in that vein I’d like to say that I wish the Twins had flown out last night to San Diego. Then they’d have about 2 days to adjust which would mean they would be acclimated by game 2 or maybe even game 1. You grab every advantage you can in baseball and this is one that has some scientific background.

So what say you?

by MNPundit on Jun 24, 2008 1:40 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Makes sense

I always feel out of whack on coastal business trips, especially west coast trips. And I’m not there long enough to time shift. When I was into bike racing, there was a raging debate about how jet lag affected the American team during the Tour de France. Then LaMonde moved there six months prior to the race and won. Armstrong took the same tack. Now the whole American team goes over there to train several months in advance to get used to the time difference.

If you’re at all into the history of science, a great book on the subject is Time, Love, and Memory. It’s about Seymore Benzer, the biologist who discovered the link between genes and circadian rhythms, among other things. Though trained as a physicist, he was interested in the subject because he appeared to be a mutant. He could not function between the hours of 4 am and noon. So he slept during those times and worked from 1 pm to midnight or later. He was able to breed fruit flies that had the exact mutation he had.

Most people are at their peaks between 7 am and 7 pm. Guys can adapt three hours on either side of that. But when you go to the west coast, you end up playing at 11 or 12 your time, and your body is in shut-down mode. It would be interesting to see the progression by inning. My guess is a lot of games are lost late by the visitors. I know the Twins always struggle out there.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 24, 2008 10:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Speaking of lacking sleep

Did anyone catch this nugget on Delmon Young in Souhan’s column? He lists the sorry results of the offseason moves, but one stood out to me:

“Here’s the list of players brought in from outside the organization this winter: Adam Everett, Brendan Harris, Mike Lamb, Livan Hernandez, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez and Craig Monroe.
Everett and Lamb have been busts. Harris didn’t stick at second base and could lose his shortstop job to Nick Punto, if he stays healthy and gets an occasional hit.
Hernandez is 8-4, but his ERA (5.23) is worrisome at best. Monroe is hitting .211, and .113 against lefties, and his job is to hit lefties.
Gomez has been entertaining but erratic. And Young has been the biggest disappointment of all.
Sunday, Young let a single roll under his glove for a two-base error that cost the Twins two runs and could have lost the game. He hit a double, but only because Arizona left fielder Conor Jackson lost the ball in the roof. Young entered Sunday hitting .193 in day games, and he is hitting only .250 against lefties.
And there is this: He has hit one home run in 276 at-bats.”

Why the “day game” stat? Is Souhan just getting funky with stats? Or is he suggesting something more? Perhaps Young has been enjoying some late nights?

by wcooley on Jun 24, 2008 10:22 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Souhan

That was just overstatement by Souhan—trying to pile it on to make his argument that Delmon was the biggest disappointment on the team stronger. He failed to point out a few salient facts: Delmon’s hitting .309 /.333 /.456 /.789 in June, for example.

The most disappointing player is Mike Lamb. People expected him to produce at least as well as Delmon this year, and he’s hitting .224 /.263 /.302, also with one home run, as compared to Delmon’s .275/.326 /.366. And, whereas people expected Delmon to have some growing pains as a 22 year old, Lamb was supposed to be plug and play.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 24, 2008 10:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Probably true

It just made me wonder. Word is that some of the older Yankees players have been suffering during day games without their “greenies.”

by wcooley on Jun 24, 2008 11:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Interesting

I have noticed that the younger teams are doing better this year in general. The Tigers seem like a team that needs a lot of greenies, as do the Mets, the Dodgers and the Giants.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 24, 2008 11:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Amphetamines

“Greenies” is the slang term.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 24, 2008 11:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Better question

What is a “Beefmaster”? Are you a licensed “beefmaster”?

by wcooley on Jun 24, 2008 12:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I heard that report too

I thought the Twins would fly out on Sunday, normally, but apparently, there was the Kent Hrbek fishing tournament yesterday, and so they didn’t fly out until Monday afternoon. (I wonder if Bass won it? sic)

So they will be a little lethargic tonight. Especially against Peavey. Then they get Maddux. Then it’s afternoon baseball before flying home.

Hopefully, they can find a way to win a couple of games…

by Old Twins Cap on Jun 24, 2008 2:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Circadian Rythems, or "jet lag"

I agree that the team should just fly out right away. However, I think the major part of the difference probably comes from people who can’t sleep on planes, moving dinner time, etc.

by snolls on Jun 24, 2008 8:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

always believed in the time zone thing

I have followed that issue through olympics (and World Cup Soccer) where it appears to be pretty clearly a significant disadvantage for countries who have the furthest to go, and a significant advantage for the home team (but that is a little harder to judge because home fan/field advantage often plays a large part too).

Within the continental U.S. I doubt it is a significant difference, especially on a bunch of athletes in their 20’s. However, over time, I think the disadvantage to the traveling team starts to add up. I have always felt that the Texas Rangers have been screwed by always having to travel to a different time zone to face the teams within their own division.

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 24, 2008 12:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Found the report.

I think it does matter even for someone say 25 (Mauer’s age), but it does make some sense that younger teams would be affected less. I want to say that as the season progressed and everyone just started traveling around, no one was on their rhythm much and so the differences actually regressed as the season wore on.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91483938

by MNPundit on Jun 24, 2008 10:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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