Should the Twins Chase Brian Roberts?

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 11:13 AM EDT in Quick Hits

Just a bit of fun on a Friday morning, as I continue my baseball reading.

After thinking about it the other day, I've decided that some good could certainly come out of it. While I'm going to leave the reasons why not to you, I'll toss out some reasons why:

1. Acquiring Brian Roberts would give the Twins a good player, both offensively and defensively.

2. The acquisition of Roberts would allow the Twins to slide Alexi Casilla over to shortstop, where hopefully he can serve as admirably as he's done at second so far. This would offset one of the team's biggest weaknesses, shorstop, while simutaneously upgrading at second base.

3. The aquisition of Roberts would not only give the Twins a better option to lead off, but would allow the Twins to slide Carlos Gomez down to the 9-hole. From this position his offense isn't quite as exposed, while he's still near enough to the bigger bats that they can move him around and drive him in when he does reach. It's still a good place in the batting order to utilize speed.

Roberts, 2B
Casilla, SS
Mauer, C
Morneau, 1B
Cuddyer, RF
Kubel, DH
Young, LF
Buscher, 3B
Gomez, CF

4. The acquisition of Roberts would give the Twins further options as to how to deal with their infield depth: Brendan Harris, Nick Punto, Adam Everett and even Mike Lamb would be put into positions of either bench depth or being removed from the roster. Trim the fat.

5. Consistent run support comes from consistent offense. As great as Buscher and Casilla have been, they don't have the track record of Roberts. Roberts would consistently give the Minnesota offense more opportunities to score.

Agree or disagree? Roberts is 30 now, making $6.3 million this season and is scheduled to make $8 million in '09, at age 31, in the final year of his contract. The contract also includes a four-team limited no-trade clause.

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I could support it, but..

The smart move would be to dump Lamb if Roberts came aboard, and that’s a move that would cost the Twins $6 million (in addition to Roberts’ contract.)

I can’t find anything to dislike about Roberts, though, besides his slightly-overlarge contract.

by Jon Marthaler on Jun 27, 2008 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

sunk cost

Lamb already cost the Twins $6 MM. The only thing they’d pay for at this point is Roberts’ contract.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Jun 29, 2008 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions

What's the package?

I just don’t see us coming up with a package that would be acceptable to Baltimore and our farm system.
I think in order to put something forth like this you need to show the package you think we would offer for him.

by ChitownTwinsFan on Jun 27, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

That's why I'm leaving it up to you.

I could say I’d offer Slowey, Plouffe and Lis, but then we’re talking about what I think Roberts is worth, and that’s not what this is about. I want to know what you think Roberts is worth…if he’s worth the Twins going after at all. If you don’t think so, that’s cool too. But I wanted to keep the focus on the discussion of the possibilities as opposed to a “do you agree with my package” piece.

No pun intended about my package.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Worth

I don’t know who we could give up without it hurting us in the long run. Baltimore is going to want a good return. I was thinking Robertson, but immediately nixed that idea. If Liriano continues to improve and makes it back up this year, we could deal Blackburn, and Swarzak, and someone from Fort Myers, basically a throw in. Although I really like Blackburn, but believe that he is overachieving and might have max value right now.

by WITwinsfan on Jun 27, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

Blackburn

has better peripherals than Baker, Perkins or Slowey right now. I’d rather deal one of them than Nick, at least right now.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

I dunno about that one.

xFIP
Baker: 3.63
Slowey: 4.07
Blackburn: 4.17

Blackburn has pitched well, but if we’re talking about who’s most likely to continue to pitch this well, certainly Blackburn is at the bottom of that list. Now might actually be the most logical time to trade him since his value is so high. I don’t really think that Twins have enough pitching depth to be able to afford trading anyone anyhow, though.

by Nick N. on Jun 27, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Those are all very good numbers actually, especially from Baker, but...

I was thinking more along these lines:

LD%
Slowey: 18.6
Blackburn: 21.3
Perkins: 24.4
Baker: 24.7

GB%
Blackburn: 44.9
Baker: 35.6
Perkins: 34.4
Slowey: 34.2

HR/F%
Blackburn: 7.8
Perkins: 12.4
Slowey: 13.0
Baker: 15.4

If I’m looking at who’s most likely to continue to pitch well, I’m going with these numbers in conjunction with xFIP, K/9, WHIP. The marginal difference in xFIP is easily offset by the three categories above.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Also...

...right now, I have to agree that we probably don’t have the pitching depth to get a guy like Brian Roberts. At least, not without throwing in one of our all too precious position player prospects.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we'd have to give up a lot

Slowey, Hughes and Lis. I’d be ok with that, because I think that Slowey has some of the best value in trade, and Hughes would probably be a case of selling high. Add Boof to the mix if you have to.

by snolls on Jun 27, 2008 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

I'd do that.

I love Erik Lis, I think he’s a talent that has been held back because of his inability to play one defensive position well. It’s too bad, because I really think he can hit and could provide pop as a DH.

Right now he’s batting .289/.330/.489 in New Britain, 273 at-bats, 8 homers, 29 doubles, 18 walks, 54 striketouts.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I would not trade

Slowey, Blackburn, Liriano or Baker. That’s the young core of a rotation on the upswing. The Twins are in the top 5 in runs scored in AL. They will not win the World Series this year anyway, so I would not raid the inner sanctum to go all-in in ‘08.

If they could trade Perkins, Bonser, Duensing, or maybe a position player like Span or so, then maybe. I do like Roberts and he allows for lineup balance and better defense.

The fact that the Twins are contending is a great thing and a great experience for their youngsters, but no way should they break up the core in order to win a few extra games now.

by Old Twins Cap on Jun 27, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

Do you think

They would take Livan off our hands?

Yeah, I know, just dreamin’.

by Neil on Jun 27, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

Gosh Jesse

That’s basically what I suggested in the comments to our post last week, except I had Casilla leading off and Roberts hitting second.

I also suggested that the Twins could trade Livan to another club for a piece the Orioles need, and package that piece with two pitchers out of these four: Bonser, Humber, Mulvey, Duensing.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 27, 2008 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

Casilla

Baltimore is in dire need of a SS, already DFA’ed 2 within the past several weeks.

Can’t see a deal without Casilla, not sure that makes sense. Not sure Harris would be enough to cover the Orioles there.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Jun 27, 2008 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

Could throw in Trevor Plouffe for MI depth.

Not that he’s a high-end guy either though.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn't trade Casilla for Roberts straight up

Roberts is about to hit the Alomar wall. I give him until the end of his current contract. Anything past that is risky.

Casilla is just getting started and has at least eight good years left in him. All things considered, right now they’re about equal. (Roberts is a better hitter, Casilla is a better fielder and base runner). In two years, it won’t even be close who’s better.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 27, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Roberts

If he was a couple years younger I’d be more for going after him.

Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?

by caseintheface on Jun 27, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

It’d be interesting, but only is Casilla was moved to short as the starter. Who are some solid DH options that are out there?

"Don't take anything for granted, because tomorrow is not promised to any of us."

by Twins Territory on Jun 27, 2008 1:42 PM EDT reply actions

Barry Bonds?

That one would be interesting.

by Jesse on Jun 27, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

YES

Of course, the Twins won’t do this, because
1) They’re the Twins, and they avoid controversy
2) They are committed to Delmon Young and Jason Kubel, and they won’t pick up a guy that prevents them from playing every day. (NOTE: This is not a bad reason, and I mostly agree with it)

If the Delmon trade didn’t happen, and Craig Monroe was the everyday DH, I’d have already kidnapped Bill Smith and not let him go until the ink was dry on Barry’s contract.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 27, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Not convinced yet

I’ll admit that right now this team is a lot of fun to watch and has a lot of parts working well right now. But when looking at the pitching staff particularly, it’s hard to say whether or not things are sustainable. And while making the playoffs is fun and all, I certainly wouldn’t be all that confident throwing this team up against Boston or Anaheim in September.

For me, the best course of action in my mind would be to play out the season and find out who your real players are. Is Buscher and everyday player? Is Casilla ready to stick? Who are your rotation guys? Baker I think is ready to sustain is current rate. I think Slowey should get better as the season progresses. Perkins is likely to fall off as it’s been awhile since he threw this many innings. Liriano, may be ready at some point, but unlikely to finish out the season. I much more like the idea of trying to get rid of these middling veterans and continue to find out what we got with these young ones.

Best case scenario at this point would be to ride out Blackburn’s success the rest of the season. I’d follow up by parlaying him off to the highest bidder. Moves I’d like would be to talk with Philly and Texas (who would hopefully drool over his homerun rate). With Texas I’d talk about Elvis Andrus, with Philly I’d talk about Adrian Cardenas. Both have a lot of potential, are young, and are slightly redundant with All-Stars occupying their positions at the Major League level.

by caseintheface on Jun 27, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

trade scenario

A trade for Roberts…..hhhmmm.

1. They want a MI then they can have their pick of Punto, Harris or Tolbert
2. Bonser
3. Manship or Burnett or Swarzak
4. Hughes or Plouffe, or Peterson

I am not quite sure if the 4th person should be included in this deal maybe a lesser prospect still.

by doofus on Jun 28, 2008 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

Yep

I’d do it, and I’d bat Roberts leadoff, followed by Casilla #2 and move Gomez to #9, just as you note. It would make three positions better, Roberts is an upgrade (short term) over Casilla at 2nd, Casilla a big upgrade at SS, and Harris would be an upgrade as a utility IF. I’d be ok with a MI not named Casilla, Bonser (may need a change of scenery), a pitching and a hitting prospect. Tolbert-Bonser-Burnett-Hughes seems about right.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 28, 2008 6:51 PM EDT reply actions