Why Ron Gardenhire is Overrated

by Andersklasen on Jun 3, 2008 5:12 PM EDT

Originally posted by me at Bleacher Report .

MLB, AL Central, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Ron Gardenhire, Editorial

Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star recently wrote an article giving credit to Ron Gardenhire as one of the best managers of all time. He admitted that he has since received many emails from Twins fans that want to let him know that he is crazy.

I think he is, too.

Some Twins fans will go as far to say that Gardenhire isn't even an average major league manager.

From Posnanski's perspective, as a Royals follower, Gardenhire is a great manager. From an outsider's point of view, the Twins are great. But from where I stand, one who has grown up a Twins fan, Gardy is average.

Here is one of his main arguments:

Gardy’s teams have won four division championships in seven years with what seems to be pretty modest talent.

From 2002 to 2004, the AL Central was a mess. The then-incompetent Cleveland Indians, the pitiful Kansas City Royals, and the Detroit Tigers who averaged 105 losses a year during that span all made up, in addition to the White Sox and Twins, one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Minnesota got to face each of those teams 19 times a season during that span.

Now let's get into that "pretty modest talent" comment. True, Minnesota didn't have great talent on their teams from 2002-2004. Like said before, they didn't have to work very hard to beat out the Tigers, Royals, or Indians.

It was a battle between the White Sox and Twins in the early 2000's, with Minnesota averaging a victory of around nine games from 2002-2004.

Did Minnesota ever have great talent? In 2006, they "captured lightning in a bottle", according to SBG.

They had the Cy Young winner in Johan Santana, a pitcher who out-performed him for half the year in Francisco Liriano, and career years from six players; Bartlett, Hunter, Morneau, Mauer, Punto, and Cuddyer. Minnesota ended up winning their division on the last day of the regular season, but were swept in the first round of the postseason by the Oakland Athletics.

Now here are some of my arguments:

Gardy has been helped greatly by the huge amount of talent in the bullpen.

One of the first things people concede to Gardenhire is his excellent ability to manage the bullpen. Maybe he deserves a little more credit than I'm giving him, but his "talent" in that department seems to have gone down in recent years.

Pat Neshek lost his 2008 season due to injury. This should come to no surprise to Twins fans given the way he was overused in the last few months of the 2007 season.

Another thing to mention is Gardenhire's absolute refusal to use one of the best closers in the game in anything but save situations. If the scoreboard shows a run differential of more than three runs, or it is not the ninth inning, Nathan WILL NOT be pitching. Totally ridiculous.

That is not old school, Gardy, that is just plain dumb.

Nick Punto

Any Twins fan knows the inside joke of Gardenhire's man-crush on Nick Punto. There is also the joke of renaming the Mendoza line as the Punto line.

Punto certainly has a great glove and is one of the best left-side infield defenders in the game today. His offensive line though, .246/ .314/ .322, should be enough to warrant his removal from the starting lineup day in and day out.

I would be the first to have Punto be a defensive replacement. Just NOT a starter. Punto played in 150 games in 2007, with a whopping 472 at-bats. He had 472 chances to prove that he cannot hit a baseball.

Veteran Love

Lastly, Gardenhire has a love for veterans. Even when the front office of the Minnesota Twins provides him with fresh talent, he still opts for the established old players.

Just look at Craig Monroe.

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"Just look at Craig Monroe."

Monroe has the second fewest ABs (behind Remond) on the entire team who hasn’t spent time on the DL and isn’t a minor league call-up, so that is a horrible example.

Punto is batting better than Everett this season, so give the guy a break. Plus, he has served as a defensive replacement and a guy going in to give others on the infield a day off. He’s not a starter this year.

Nathan has pitched several times in the past week in non-save situations, and Neshek’s injury seemed like more of a freak happening than from being overworked like nine months ago.

by joeiscool12 on Jun 3, 2008 5:26 PM EDT 0 recs

*should say second fewest ABs of any player on the entire team...

by joeiscool12 on Jun 3, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gardenhire is a fine manager.

Managers get too much credit for successes and failures, much like hitting or pitching coaches. There’s really no way to objectively judge which managers are the best in baseball compared to which managers are simply average.

No matter if it’s Torre or Gardenhire or some shmuck in his first go-round as manager, there are always going to be tendencies that, as fans, we won’t agree with. I’m right there—I question lineup construction, playing time, how long to leave in a pitcher. But the fact is that what we’re questioning are usually judgement calls. Everyone makes stupid decisions in life from time to time, and it’s going to happen in baseball, too.

Personally, I believe the job of the manager is to carry out organizational philosophy on the field, and to make judgement calls in leverege situations. (On some level it’s also his job to motivate, or light a fire under, his players…but as fans we’re in no position to make a call on how good or inept he is at motivation.) I think Gardy has done those things, and has had some pretty solid results in general. And those results are what the mass media uses as a judge of managerial success. They don’t take into account that the Twins were taking on a weak AL Central in ‘02-’04, but team success is a weak judge of managerial savvy anyway. Many consecutive seasons of a losing record is the fault of the front office and organizational decisions, moreso than the fault of the on-field manager.

Gardy has his faults, and I won’t argue with any point you made above. I just don’t think there’s a whole lot that Gardenhire did or didn’t do that had a long-term effect on success…or lack thereof.

by Jesse on Jun 3, 2008 6:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Gardy has his quirks

But you can’t argue with his success. He has had overachieving teams in five out of seven years, counting this year. Big picture, he’s a good manager.

But those quirks drive us nuts. I think you hit on several of them. My biggest pet peeve is how he plays favorites. He railed against Casilla last year for his lack of fundamental play. But who did he have as a role model? Punto, who is the most fundamentally unsound player I’ve ever seen. How can Gardy have such double standards or blind spots or whatever? That’s what bugs me the most.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 3, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks

Yeah, you hit the nail on the head. I believe he is an average manager, but his “quirks” drive me nuts. As someone said on the original article, “the best thing a manager could be was “not an idiot”. Everything else was ancillary.”

Primary Focus writer:
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by Andersklasen on Jun 3, 2008 10:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

I thought about writing this post

and picking apart each individual argument of Posnanski’s, but in a way it was to easy. We all see Gardenhire’s faults (love of Punto, love of bunting, love of carrying 15 pitchers and 4 catchers on the major league roster) and I definitely agree that he is not a great manager. However, I’m not really sure if there is anyone that I like a ton more.

I used to think he was good at managing the bullpen but these last couple of seasons have seen that idea go right out the window.

One point in his favor: I like that he is not afraid to put a guy on the bench for failing to run out a grounder or dogging it on defense. He runs a pretty tight ship and I have no problem with that.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jun 3, 2008 7:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Re: Bullpen use

I used to think he was good at managing the bullpen but these last couple of seasons have seen that idea go right out the window.

He did have that rep for managing a bullpen well…but then again, the bullpen made it easy on him. Ah the good old days of ‘06…when everyone did their job…

by Jesse on Jun 3, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Need an answer

Gardenhire’s absolute refusal to use one of the best closers in the game in anything but save situations.

Can you name the managers for us who do not adhere to this practice?

by Johnny Safron on Jun 3, 2008 8:00 PM EDT 0 recs

Read Aaron Gleeman’s post from a few days ago. Not many managers “adhere to that practice” anymore.

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by Andersklasen on Jun 3, 2008 10:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

A link would be good

Didn’t have the patience to dig through much Gleeman. Did come across some of his ramblings on bullpen moves. He wasn’t so high on adding more pitching in the bullpen, or on Breslow.

A dozen-man staff includes seven relievers, which makes it difficult to find consistent work everyone in the bullpen, let alone overwork them.

Because I just don’t see Gleeman as a guy who ever broke much of a sweat on an athletic field, I’m not too sure what he knows what it takes to be overworked as a pitcher, but aside from that the issue isn’t concern about an overworked bullpen THIS MINUTE, although that’s the way it sounds when the manager says he’s concerned about overworking the bullpen. The concern is down the road. But Gleeman takes the short-sighted view common to many fans.

If you can save a few innings now, it can make a big difference down the stretch. And that’s what the Twins’ situation was about when this move was made. With 3 off days, I believe it is, between now and the All-Star break, it’s wise to put a cork in the potential problem now.

Redmond and Craig Monroe aren’t exactly overworked, either, the bench hardly needs another hind end right now. Gleeman seems to think it does.

A southpaw who works with a high-80s fastball, high-70s slider, and mid-70s changeup, Breslow has held big-league hitters to .248/.354/.342 in 178 career plate appearances. Major-league relievers as a group have held batters to .247/.329/.381 this year,

Like all stats, that tells me what has happened. Not what will happen.

And odd, that “major-league” relievers was chosen as a yardstick. The AL is a DH league, so statistics for AL relievers is more relevant. Even then, many arguments can be made as to why you should not compare one man to the league average, rather than use other options. Such as comparing Breslow to AL lefty relievers, for example.

Gleeman’s numbers also don’t tell me how Breslow was used, and although you can research game accounts to learn that, we still would not know how Breslow will be used. We also don’t know if Breslow will develop a new pitch, hone an existing pitch, or start to use one pitch more than he has been using, thus perhaps changing everything.

And I suspect Gleeman was a Neshek fan. But Neshek’s line this year was .234/.291/.460. That .460 is way out of whack. Yeah, yeah. “Small sample size. A couple bad outings. Blah, blah.”

That also applies to Breslow, then.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 4, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Disregarding stats

Like all stats, that tells me what has happened. Not what will happen.

Well, yeah, but the stats certainly give you a better idea what to expect than no stats, and it’s foolish to disregard them completely. Certainly, players outperform and underperform their statistical expectations all the time – that’s part of the beauty of baseball – but I’d feel much better about acquiring a player because he hit .300/.400/.500 last year rather than because he “looks like a ballplayer” or something.

Note that I’m not saying that we should disregard scouting, either, but it’s certainly easier to come up with a somewhat useful projection based on existing stats than it is without them.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 5, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

link

http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_05_25_baseballblog_archive.html

The Monday post, at the bottom of the page.

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by Andersklasen on Jun 5, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

Terry Francona

He has been extremely willing to use Papelbon to get outs in the 8th with runners on (or when the best hitters come up in the 8th). He has also been willing to let Okajima pitch the next night for the save. Obviously he has the luxury of having those two guys in the same bullpen, but last year Gardy had Nathan and Neshek, which is just as good if not better.

As a side note, I think Francona is one of the best managers in the game and that opinion has very little to do with the fact that the Red Sox win so much.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jun 4, 2008 2:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

Absolute refusal?

7 of Nathans last 11 appearances have been in non save situations…

by guinness junky on Jun 4, 2008 12:08 AM EDT 0 recs

I was hoping someone said that

Gardy will put Nathan in a tie game in the ninth or with a nonsave lead in the ninth at home. But he will only use Natahn in save situations on the road. This represents a deviation from Kelly’s methods. Kelly would have Aggie warm up in the bottom of the eighth in a save situation at home. The Twins would score a run, and he’d sit him down again. Gardy at least uses Nathan in those situations and in tie games.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 4, 2008 10:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

You forgot

You forgot the stuff that’s most damning to me: getting constantly out-managed in game strategically. There are more instances than I can count where I’ve seen this, but a few of my favorites:

Several years ago when Lew Ford was asked to sac bunt with no outs and runners on first and second. Ford put down a decent bunt, not great, but ok, but the mollases slow Mathew Lecroy was the runner at second and was thrown out easily due to his slow speed.

The 2004 ALDS, staying with Nathan after he’d thrown over 40 pitches and was clearly gassed when he had Jesse Crain available, who hadn’t given up a run in over 20 innings.

A couple nights ago, he pinch hit Nick Punto for Craig Monroe so Punto could SAC BUNT. Punto is one of the worst bunters I’ve ever seen, and his failures to execute that play reached fever pitch around here last year. Yet Gardenhire keeps having him do it, and even inserted him into the game specifically so he could do it.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 4, 2008 2:58 AM EDT 0 recs

Gardy

Sure, he makes managerial decisions that don’t work out and seem odd in hindsight. I am 100% positive that fans of every single team in the game could point to similar situations that their manager made. In fact, I would guess that with the possible exceptions of Boston and Atlanta, fans of every team are disappointed with their manager and would like to see them fired.

Take your “constantly out-managed in game strategically” statement. You don’t mention any situations that work (well, you did, but I’ll get to that later), like PH Monroe for the game-tying HR. And the examples you used are:

1. Several years old.

2. 4 years old.

3. A move that may seem questionable but worked (worked = Punto successfully sac bunted).

If your three favorite examples include 2 that are at least a couple years old, plus one that succeeded, that seems like pretty weak criticism to me.

by Diggity Dino on Jun 4, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

More recent ones

Using Rincon in a tie game four times
Leaving Punto in to bunt in the bottom of the ninth down by a run with Kubel on the bench: Punto popped out
Playing Everett for a week’s worth of weak throws when everyone and his mother could see he still was hurt

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 4, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

if i remember right...

4. asking Harris to bunt with runners and 2nd and 3rd with one out and Petitte on the mound, who Harris has historically hit quite well.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jun 4, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Three low lights of Gardy's career

To elaborate on the Ford thing, when Ford grumbled in the dugout about not pinch running for Lecroy in that situation, Gardy benched him for two games, putting Punto in center, who let several catchable balls go to the wall. After that play, Ford was never the same, and he was in Gardy’s doghouse more often than not.

It’s funny that two of the three lowlights involve Punto. And over the last few years, when I think of Gardy’s strategic blunders, many of them involve Punto. He’s left Punto in to hit with the tying or winning runner on and Kubel or another better bat on the bench n at least six cases the last two years. He hit Punto second in the order 10 times and he even led off with him when he was in the midst of a 2 for 52 slump with 25 strikeouts. He’s never benched Punto for poor fundamentals when other players (Ford e.g.) got run off the team for it. I just don’t get it. It’s clear he loves Red Dog and Nicky and they love him.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 4, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Punto pinch-bunting

It’s a moot point because he got the bunt down. Maybe he’s been practicing it a lot and Gardy had reason to believe he could do it.

by joeiscool12 on Jun 4, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

False

Its not a moot point. You shouldn’t consider the outcome when evaluating the decision. This is called ex-post logic. We now know things that Gardy could not have known when he made the decision. This is important, because we are dealing with a lot of situations with low probabilities.
Example: There are two outs, bottom of the ninth, bases loaded, down by 3, right-handed closer in the game. If you put Punto in the game, I arbitrarily assign a 10% chance that you come back and win the game (odds that he hits a base clearing double or something). If you put Kubel in the game, the odds are, say 15%. 6 out of 7 times, Kubel won’t win the game, and 1 out of 10 Punto will win the game. This does not mean that Kubel’s failure or Punto’s success is indicative that Punto should have been in the game.

So, if Punto comes out of his 2 / 52 slump with a 4 hit game in leadoff, you need to say a) It was a mistake and Punto/Gardy got lucky, or b) Gardy knew something that we didn’t, so he had reasonable, justifiable logic that Punto would do better than the alternative.
I doubt Gardy knows something about Punto that makes him likely to start playing well, as Punto continues to show bad numbers.

by snolls on Jun 4, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pinch hitting Macri for Lamb in the 9th versus a righty?

Some things are mind boggling that’s all.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jun 4, 2008 7:29 AM EDT 0 recs

Sherrill

Is a lefty. Macri pinch-hit for Lamb against a LHP, which was absolutely the right move (assuming Monroe is scheduled to PH for Casilla, which also makes sense, as he would be the tie or go-ahead run if he hits for Casilla versus the leadoff batter for Lamb.

by Diggity Dino on Jun 4, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Time for another episode of Mike Lamb, lefty masher:

.091 /.130 /.227 /.358

He’s getting hot compared to what it was just a week ago!

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 4, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

*wrong

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jun 5, 2008 4:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Another Idea

We should have an on-going “thing” on the side of the page that keeps track of Gardy’s blunders.

It would be full very soon.

Primary Focus writer:
http://theprimaryfocus.net

Bleacher Report Senior Writer:
http://bleacherreport.com/users/4918-Andrew_Kneeland

Check them out!

by Andersklasen on Jun 4, 2008 2:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Sure

Will Young’s site has something similar.

But of course out of fairness a similar record should be kept of Gardy’s successes. For example, PH Macri for Lamb in the 9th against a LHP was the right move; however, many managers would not have done it since Lamb is the vet and Macri is the rookie. Where is the Gardy praise on that?

by Diggity Dino on Jun 4, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry. I guess Sherrill's stats were misposted...

I’m here in Japan so I just have to take the web’s word for everything. I guess it was just a missprint. My bad.

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jun 5, 2008 4:10 AM EDT 0 recs

Why not include one for things that works...

Oops…That is Blasphemy.

Just give me the name of 1(one) manager which you guarantee will win more games with this team. Then maybe I will listen.

I’m sure Mr. Leland will do better, I mean look what he’s done with a rookie league line-up, and a High school pitching staff.

Just please don’t quote Gleeman about much but managers in particular. His World View is that if the Twins win it’s ALL on the players, if the Twins lose…you guessed it…It’s ALL on Gardy.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Jun 5, 2008 9:16 PM EDT 0 recs