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Who's In the Market?

A couple of weeks ago I ventured a half start at who was ON the market for starting pitchers.  But the real question isn't whether Livan Hernandez or Boof Bonser are on the market or not, but whether there are any teams out there who could be in search of what a pitcher like those two have to offer:  reliability, stability, innings.

Whether it's good reliability or hand-wringing reliability, or good innings or bad innings, are the types of questions that could drive suitors to other options and other teams.  But I'm losing focus.

We can narrow our search to contenders, because those are the teams who will be looking to "buy" someone with those attributes for the back end of their starting rotation.  Teams looking to sell, or even those who are treading water, won't be after the services of anyone making millions more than their own youngsters who could likely perform just as well.  At least, they won't be looking to pick up a guy like Hernandez in the middle of the season, certainly not when it would mean handing over a prospect.

Of the contending teams in baseball, I've excluded anyone in the AL Central (mainly the White Sox at the moment, but all of them on principle) as well as the following clubs:

Red Sox:  Beckett, Lester, Wakefield, Matsuzaka, Masterson (also Bartolo Colon who's on the DL, and Clay Buchholz in the minors)
Yankees:  Pettitte, Mussina, Rasner, Chamberlain, Giese (also with Kennedy and Hughes in the minors, and Carl Pavano possibly back in a few weeks)
Rays:  Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson, Sonnastine (the Rays look good for pitching, at least from this outsider's perspective, especially with Price on the rise)
Angels:  Santana, Saunders, Weaver, Lackey, Garland (also, in very good condition)
Athletics:  Harden, Blanton, Smith, Eveland, Duchscherer (simutaneously buyers and sellers, but they won't buy starting pitching...at least not what the Twins would sell)
Cardinals:  Piniero, Wellemeyer, Lohse, Looper, Boggs (and Wainwright on the DL, plus they're comfortable enough to consider cutting ties with Matt Clement...although earlier in June they were speculated to be looking for another starter, it's for an ace--not a Hernandez or Bonser)
Braves:  Apparently, they're no longer in the market for starters
Padres:  Neither buying nor selling at this juncture

After the jump, the teams who could use a guy like Boof or Livan.  The bad news:  there aren't many.  The good news:  even in a trade market where good, solid starting pitching will be available, the Twins might find someone interested.

Star-divide

The Buyers

Philadelphia Phillies

Current Rotation:  Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, Brett Myers

The Phillies have already been linked to ace-type options like Roy Oswalt, A.J. Burnett, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets.  But they've also been linked to a guy like Greg Maddux.  While neither Livan or Boof can compete with that string of front runners, if Philadelphia can't land Maddux, someone like Bonser might fit the bill.  Brett Myers doesn't look like the pitcher of two or three years ago, it's hard to put much faith in Adam Eaton's relative success this season and, contrary to popular belief, Jamie Moyer isn't getting any younger.  Draft mates Hamels and Kendrick look good, but if there's anything the Phillies need it's another front-line starter and a reliable innings-muncher at the back end.  Whether Boof or Livan could fill that role better than Myers is the question.

Florida Marlins

Current Rotation:  Scott Olsen, Ricky Nolasco, Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson, Ryan Tucker

While I haven't read anything indicating that the Marlins would be interested in acquiring pitching (only a veteran catcher), looking at their rotation I have to believer they'd need to if they want to continue to compete.  Only Olsen and Nolasco have pitched well enough to not be replaceable, while none of the six other pitchers who've started have managed to do anything better than suck.  Considering what a guy like Hernandez or Bonser might cost the Marlins, both pitchers could hold some interest for a team desperate for starting pitching.  They could certainly use another ace arm first, but it's easier to upgrade from horrible to questionable than it is to upgrade from questionable to good.

Milwaukee Brewers

Current Rotation:  Ben Sheets, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Seth McClung

Oddly enough, as Sheets is the subject of some trade rumors of his own (although not on the levels of Sabathia or Burnett), the Brewers' assistant GM has mentioned that they wouldn't be opposed to the idea of bringing in another starting pitcher.  Unfortunately for the Twins, all five of these guys have out-performed both Bonser and Hernandez.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Current Rotation:  Brandon Webb, Doug Davis, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Micah Owings

Webb, Davis and Haren give Arizona a formidable trio.  Johnson's had a rough month of June and doesn't look like his former self, which is understandable considering he turns 45 in less than three months.  Of course, he can still pitch, and I'd take my chances with him over Boof over Livan ten out of ten times.  Owings is the place in the rotation where Arizona might look to upgrade as far as starting pitching is concerned, although even here the peripherals make him look like a better option than Minnesota's available major league starters.  Additionally, Owings turns just 26 in September.  Like Milwaukee, if they look to improve the rotation, it doesn't look like the Twins would have much to offer.

Chicago Cubs

Current Rotation:  Ryan Dempster, Sean Gallagher, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Carlos Zambrano

Even now, Zambrano isn't active.  But according to reports, the Cubs are expecting to activate him for their game on Independence Day this Friday.  If he is indeed ready, the Cubs' search for another pitcher would be relegated strictly to a guy like C.C. Sabathia; an ace that sets up the North Siders with a definitive knock-out arm for the summer's final push.  If he's not ready, the Cubs may look to someone with more experience than a Sean Marshall, Rich Hill or even Jon Leiber, who the Cubs prefer to keep in the bullpen.  Would Livan make any sense?

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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...many options for the Twins. What about a straight up Livan (plus additional prospect…maybe) for…Andy LaRoche trade?

...Edwin Jackson trade?

...Casey Blake trade?

...Derek Lowe? A.J. Burnett? Wilson Betemit?

Thoughts?

Primary Focus writer:
http://theprimaryfocus.net

Bleacher Report Senior Writer:
http://bleacherreport.com/users/4918-Andrew_Kneeland

Check them out!

by Andersklasen on Jun 30, 2008 11:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In the off-season

I was all about Andy LaRoche as The Third Baseman of the Future for the Twins, and I still wouldn’t be opposed to the idea. I’m just not sure we have the players to get him…at least, not ones the organization would be willing to part with.

by Jesse on Jun 30, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Addition by subtraction

I think the Twins have to look at this season a building year, even with the winning streak. When the time is right, they can subtract a veteran in order to add a better youngster. By the time the season is over, they’ll have the youngest roster in baseball and will be well stocked for next year while still being in contention this year. At least that has to be their goal.

Subtract:
Mike Lamb: Hope to get a decent prospect
Livan Hernandez: Hope to get a decent prospect
Dennis Reyes: Hope to get a decent prospect
Adam Everett: Hope to get a PTBNL
Craig Monroe: Hope to get a PTBNL
Nick Punto: Hope to get a PTBNL

Add:
Matt Macri
Francisco Liriano
Mariano Gomez
Michael Cuddyer (activate from DL)
Matt Tolbert (activate from DL)

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Andy: Addition by subtraction.

Michael: That…is not possible.
Andy: You’re right. It’s not.

by Jesse on Jun 30, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed on most of the subtracts, but...

I honestly doubt the Twins could get anything for Everett, and I’d guess that Lamb falls into the “maybe a PTBNL” category as well, unless the Twins are willing to foot the bill for his salary.

I also don’t see the need to get rid of Punto. I realize that Tolbert fills the same role more cheaply, but Gardy doesn’t appear to be overusing Punto as he’s been accused of in the past, so I don’t think there’s a big need to just purge him from the roster. Moreover, I don’t know that it’s likely that the Twins can get anything back for Punto without paying what’s left on his contract – in that case, I don’t think replacing Punto on the roster with Tolbert is enough of an upgrade that it’s worth doing before September, unless you have higher expectations than I do about what they’d get in return.

Do you think Gomez has leapfrogged Korecky in the “next reliever to Minneapolis” queue?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 30, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Punto is behaving badly

I might be misinterpreting his attitude, but he seems really pissed that Gardy is not using him more. I’m more concerned about his attitude than his ability. As a bench player, he’s only marginally worse than Tolbert. But nobody likes a sulky bench player, and Tolbert is anything but sulky.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

I hadn’t heard anything about Punto’s attitude. Is this something you’ve picked up from watching the team, or was Punto quoted somewhere?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 30, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Howard's blog

I noticed him sulking in the dugout when he didn’t start after being activated. He has had a sour expression and looked pissed since he got back. For some reason, the camera keeps finding him sitting there in a sulk. You would think he would be happy for his teammates, having won 10 in a row. Anyway, I didn’t think much about it until I read Howard’s blog this morning, where Howard reported that he behaved badly in Saturday’s game, throwing his bat after his initial strikeout and not paying attention at a crucial stage.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gracias

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 30, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Keep the Office stuff coming

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 1:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ultimately

I don’t think it matters, because I don’t think they will get anything of interest for Livan or anyone else they might trade.

Rentals just don’t produce much in return, especially rentals with 5+ ERAs,. I suspect a B- or C prospect is the best they could do.

Lamb is probably untradeable, since he has another year left on his deal, which nobody is going to want to pay.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Example
I don’t think it matters, because I don’t think they will get anything of interest for Livan or anyone else they might trade.

Rentals just don’t produce much in return, especially rentals with 5+ ERAs,. I suspect a B- or C prospect is the best they could do.

I would’ve thought that, too, except that the Twins managed to trade Ramon Ortiz for Matt Macri last year. At the time, Ortiz had a 5.14 ERA and had long since been demoted to the bullpen. I guess I don’t know what kind of grade Macri had as a prospect, but he was good enough that if the Twins had the roster space, he’d likely be a platoon starter in the majors right now.

I’m with you, though, that Lamb is untradeable unless the Twins pick up the tab for rest of his contract.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 30, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lamb

I would think he has enough of a track record that some rich team will want him as a lefty bat off the bench, even at that price. I don’t think they’ll give up much for him in the way of talent, though.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

At this point I think even just the roster space next season would be a pretty good thing.

by Jesse on Jun 30, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ortiz for Macri

The Twins have done very well getting above-average prospects for rentals. Last years’ trades are a good example, Who would have thought we could get a quality third baseman for Ortiz when he hardly pitched at all for two months and his ERA was over 6?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 3:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Buyers or Sellers?

http://www.twinsfix.com/2008/06/buyers-or-sellers.html

Primary Focus writer:
http://theprimaryfocus.net

Bleacher Report Senior Writer:
http://bleacherreport.com/users/4918-Andrew_Kneeland

Check them out!

by Andersklasen on Jun 30, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good read.

Thanks for the link, Andrew.

by Jesse on Jun 30, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They don't have to get much back

I’d be ok with them selling or waiving Livan, Lamb, and Everett. I can’t see getting anything more than a position filler in return. These are truly cases of addition by subtraction, especially if someone else will pay their contracts (especially Lamb’s for next year).
Reyes should get something decent back, and Punto and Monroe might get a real low level prospect with some talent. Teams always need defensive infielders and pinch hitters with something resembling power.

by snolls on Jun 30, 2008 3:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Livan has value

For much the same reason the Twins had interest (and consider that interest a relative success) in Livan, he’ll have some value across the league. He has performed almost exactly as expected, so nothing should change that.

Livan is one of those players that must be more interesting those he’s playing with and for than he is for anyone watching with a disgusted squint. There is a reason for all of those wins, though, and it’s not simply due to run support. He has a knack for pitching out of jams and keeping a game close.

All it will take is one or two injuries to one of the “buyer” teams mentioned above for him to become relatively valuable. He’s a veteran presence a team can put in as a 4th starter rather than mess with the psyche of a young, untested starter in the midst of a pennant race.

Would the Twins get the world for him? No. But we’ve gotten quality for much, much less.

And on the topic of “rental” player value—remember getting David Ortiz for David “Head” Hollins? That worked out so well, the Red Sox will never be the same.

by vulture on Jun 30, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd

I’d be pretty sad if we traded Boof at this juncture. I’ve been one of the most outspoken supporters of him anywhere in the past and I really believe in his ability and hard work. Of course, at some point, that ability has to turn into some production.

But his trade value is at an all time low, so I don’t see the reason to trade him now. Boof is still worth more than a marginal prospect, unlike Livan.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 30, 2008 6:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Plus,

Boof is in the rotation, i.e. he’s a superfluous and available starter. I agree with you that he can be productive, but at this point if we can turn him around for something I’m all for it. It’s been a rough year for him.

by Jesse on Jun 30, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Change of scenery

He looks like he needs to go to another organization and get a fresh start. He has the talent to be effective. He just seems to be tentative for whatever reason. It’s like he’s lost his confidence or something.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 30, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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