Changes In the Game
by snolls on Jun 6, 2008 9:27 AM EDT
26 comments
Interesting reference in Kelly Theisers article on the draft.
"Former scouting director Mike Radcliff, who is currently the vice president of player personnel, has indicated that the Twins feel there will be a shift in the game in coming years, focusing more on athletic, speedy players rather than the bulked-up power hitters seen during the "boom or bust" days of the past 10-15 years. The Twins have tried to adjust their thinking to that when obtaining players, and perhaps center fielder Carlos Gomez is one of the best examples of that trend."
I find this to be a very interesting perspective. The Twins seem to have made their own "moneyball" assessment that power hitters are overvalued in the post-steroid era. They certainly have loaded their minor league system with singles and doubles hitters who can run.
While I'm dissappointed they haven't picked up more big bats in the infield or at the corner outfield positions, I do tend to like their logic. These players are cheaper, and don't have the same risk associated power hitters who can't get the ball to the seats.
I'm just worried that the Twins are overloaded on talent in CF. While I understand the "take the best player" approach, it is extemely difficult to trade good prospects for other good prospects. If Gomez sticks in CF for a couple of years, and they don't get rid of Span, there is a real jam in giving other CF opportunities to improve at higher levels. The Twins need to seriously start looking at prospect only trades. How do they swap a Span/Revere/Martin for a 3B/SS with similar potential. The same is true for pitchers. While most of us respect the Twins patient approach with pitching, at some point they need to move these guys up. That means trading away from their strength.
I assume the problem is that if you call up a team and say "we want to trade you one of our better prospects for one of your's" the other team is going to get nervous that they're being sold a lemon.
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Position Jam
I’m not too worried about the position jam. They can always trade players if necessary, and (unfortunately) a few of the players aren’t going to pan out anyway. Plus, it seems that a player like Hicks could develop the bat for a corner OF position.
by Diggity Dino on Jun 6, 2008 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
position jam
i feel that by the time hicks is ready. cuddyer will be possibly a DH. I don’t know what they’re gonna do with parmelee or revere? any ideas?
by stevydubbya05 on Jun 6, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Consider Torii Hunter
Not that Hicks is exactly like Hunter as a player, but they were both toolsy HS CF who were a long way away from what they could potentially become. Mainly, if things go well for Hicks, he’ll probably develop about as quickly as Hunter did. (Things could always go worse, too.)
Hunter was drafted in 1993. In 1993, the Twins’ lineup was roughly:
Brian Harper
Kent Hrbek
Chuck Knoblauch
Mike Pagliarulo
Pat Meares
Shane Mack
Kirby Puckett
Pedro Munoz
Dave Winfield
Torii Hunter didn’t get anything more than a cup of coffee until 1999, when the Twins’ lineup was roughly:
Terry Steinbach
Doug Mientkiewicz
Todd Walker
Corey Koskie
Cristian Guzman
Chad Allen
Torii Hunter
Matt Lawton
Marty Cordova
That 1999 lineup had absolutely nothing in common with the 1993 lineup.
So even if Hicks does reasonably well in the minors and turns out to be a player, it could easily be 2014 before the Twins need to find space in the lineup for him. 2014 is a really, really, really freakin’ long time from now. The only players currently with the team who will be younger than 30 in 2014 are Young, Gomez, and Casilla. And those guys will likely have been eligible for free agency by 2014, so they very well won’t even be on the same team as Hicks. Even Slowey and Span will be 30 by 2014. Joe Nathan will be 39 and Livan Hernandez will be “39.”
Hicks is soooo far away that it’s not even worth worrying about. If Hicks miraculously (and I do mean miraculously) becomes the best prospect in the minors, then we move other players to the corners or someone becomes the new A.J. Pierzynski. Which, if anything, is a great problem to have.
by ubelmann on Jun 6, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be satisfied if there are still major leagues in 2014
I really will. Not to be a doomsdayer, but we are kind of out on a limb in terms of our dependence on fossil fuels and a stable climate able to feed, what, 6.75 billion people.
If things continue downhill as at present, baseball players will have to worry more about getting robbed or torn apart by an angry mob than whether they will be playing left or right.
by Old Twins Cap on Jun 6, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting
That may have been the creepiest baseball blog comment I have ever read!
by SethSpeaks on Jun 6, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Screw baseball
Better get on down to the local Sam’s Club ans start hoarding.
by JBrown2818 on Jun 7, 2008 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great point
I think speed is the new discipline from a Moneyball perspective. It’s undervalued. As Hershiser said on Monday Night Baseball, “Speed doesn’t go into slumps, in the field or on the base baths.” Homers have always been overvalued. Speed was at one time overvalued, but now it’s undervalued, I think. So, I guess what I’m saying is, I agree with Radcliff and I’m glad the Twins are ahead of the curve here.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 6, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not so
Speed doesn’t go into slumps, in the field or on the base baths."
Of course, as with everyone, speed does go into slumps. Speed has to get on base.
by Johnny Safron on Jun 6, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
You can’t steal first. But I think what he meant was speed itself, removed from hitting. Hitting goes in cycles and is subject to slumps, other things are not.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 6, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's also difficult to ...
keep speed healthy. Stealing bases is brutal on the body. It takes a big toll. If a player can bang it, eventually he will quit running. Baseball players with both power and speed gravitate to power because it pays better and it keeps you healthy longer.
People like to bring up Rickey Henderson here, but he never had a 20 hr season with 75 sb.
After he turned 31 he never stole 70 bases a season, stole 60 only twice, had as many 20-hr seasons as he did 60-sb seasons, and was almost always too beat up to play more than 140 games a season. And this was a guy who not only was not out of shape a day in his life, he was in world-class sprinter shape most of his life. He was a specimen at 44, but he could not keep up a 40-steal pace year in and out once he was over 30. He did that every year, easily and by a wide margin, when he was under 30.
And beyond all that, he’s a Hall of Famer. He’s a rarity.
by Johnny Safron on Jun 6, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s a rarity.
One of a kind. One of the best players ever, IMO.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 6, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stealing Bases
It also must be considered that you don’t have to steal bases to take advantage of speed. I understand the argument about needing to get on base to be effective as a speedster, but I thought the main point of it was somthing along these lines: “would you rather have Jim Thome (for example) at.300/.350/.350 or would you rather have Carlos Gomez at .275/.300/.325?”
Sure it’s great if a guy gets on base at a slightly higher rate and slugs a little more, but if/when he isn’t hitting home runs and just prevents the guy behind him from taking an extra base (or 2) is that such a good thing?
Personally, I hated Ricky. Not that he wasn’t a good (great) player. I just wasn’t a big fan of the A’s from the late 80’s- early 90’s (too brash).
by GACTwinFan on Jun 6, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hated him too
As a fan of the opposition because he was always on base and he always took the extra base when it was there. In other words, he was a great player to have on the team you’re rooting for and a horrible player to have on the other team.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 6, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Non-stealing speed
Yes, speed can help in more ways than stealing a base, but it’s difficult to keep those guys healthy. Fast-twitch muscles seem to be awful ornery, even if you are just stretching a double into a triple or taking the extra base on an outfield ball.
There’s a story about Harmon Killebrew, who had powerful hamstrings and quads which gave him good speed as a teen. He lost that speed fairly quickly to leg injuries – and spending his first two pro years riding the bench because of a restrictive rule at the time – so he tended not to stretch it out too much on the bases because he did not want to injure those hammies and quads. Billy Martin was coaching third base in the mid-60s and got on Killebrew’s case for not striding long on a hit by the batter behind him, and Killebrew turned and told him this was how he ran to protect his legs, and if Martin didn’t like it he’d take him on right there. Martin backed off and never said another word to him about his baserunning.
Mostly, speed is a very young man’s game.
by Johnny Safron on Jun 6, 2008 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ricky
Was awesome because he had something like a .400 OBP. That would have made him good without the steals. It also meant that he got a TON of opportunities to look to steal.
by snolls on Jun 6, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rickey's OBP
Or why I like “baseball” better than “baseball statistics.”
Because you don’t want the curve ball to bend out of the strike zone before it hits the catcher’s mitt, catchers are taught to set up close to the plate. Rickey’s trick was to tick the catcher’s mitt with his backswing when he was preparing to settle into the box. This caused the catcher to reflexively inch back a little, which meant that some low fastballs and curveballs would now be caught out of the strike zone. Because umpires use mitt placement to help determine calls, this helped Rickey get extra ball calls, and thus favorable counts and walks.
by Johnny Safron on Jun 6, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rickey
People like to bring up Rickey Henderson here, but he never had a 20 hr season with 75 sb.
Except 1986, when he hit 28 HR and stole 87 bags for the Yankees. And 1985, when he hit 24 HR and stole 80 bags and finished 3rd in the MVP vote.
baseballreference.com. Live it, love it, use it.
by dwintheiser on Jun 8, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading/Value
I like the twins logic on this. Speed is undervalued, build a team that can live off of guys on first and third, all day long.
The problem is, I think they’ve most of that speed in CF. They have Gomez, Span, Martin, Revere, and Hicks. Unless they are planning to move a couple of them to the corneroutfield spots, there is a position jam. Frankly, I still would like to see some power from the corners (at least as measured in total extra base hits). I suppose that if they can find 3 of the five that have real strong OBP, they could fill a great defensive outfield, and string together a lot of good innings at the plate. I don’t, however, believe they will ever be able to easily trade any of these prospects until they prove themselves in the big leagues.
by snolls on Jun 6, 2008 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Center and corners
I could see Gomez, Martin and Hicks moving to corner positions down the road. They have enough power potential to thrive on the corners. Imagine a Gomez, Revere, Hicks outfield. They would catch a lot of doubles and hold a lot of would-be doubles to singles. Maybe you put Revere in left because he has the weakest arm of the three. But that would be some kind of range.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 6, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Take a look at recent Twins corner outfielders
Delmon Young - not sure where he was drafted at, probably thought of as a corner OF all along
Michael Cuddyer - drafted as a SS
Rondell White - played mostly CF when he was younger
Jason Kubel - probably always a corner OF (though kind of a freak considering how well he’s done relative to his draft position)
Lew Ford - started as a CF
Jacque Jones - originally a CF
Shannon Stewart - originally a CF
Bobby Kielty - originally a CF
Matt Lawton—played some CF when he first came up
etc., etc., etc.
Most of the best available players are either CF, SS, or C, especially at HS, because those are the positions you have the best athletes play. Some guys will hit more and not defend that well, and they’ll move to the corners. Some guys will field more and not hit as much, and they’ll stay up the middle. Some guys will do both and become All-Stars, some will do neither and never make it out of the minors.
I would worry if the Twins had a ton of corner players, because you can’t do much with those guys, but I’m not worried about having too many guys with a lot of defensive ability. Worst case scenario, we have to trade a major league player to make way for a minor league player (or trade a minor league player because he’s blocked.) The Twins have a long, long, long time to sort the positions out.
by ubelmann on Jun 6, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point
I started my career as a shortstop, was moved to second, then to third, then the bench. It took four years to sort my proper position out.
by wcooley on Jun 6, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if one of those gals is you,
and you were serious about baseball, maybe you shoulda considered breast reduction surgery.
musta been hard to try and turn a double play with those things in your uniform.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 7, 2008 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is an interesting premise.
Good point.
by Jesse on Jun 6, 2008 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like this angle
I would hardly describe this as a shift in organizational focus. The Twins didn’t really have to “adjust their thinking” very much at all, this is what they have been doing for quite some time it seems.
That said, I believe that the reason that the Twins are successful is that they do know what is undervalued by the market. Speedy hitters with great defense is one, and control pitchers that don’t necessarily strike 12 guys out every 9 innings is another. I’m fine with both those types of players. I’m a lot less concerned with a lack of power then I am concerned with a lack of plate discipline and ability to take walks. That’s really my only criticism of what I perceive as the over-arching organizational philosophy. We already do a great job teaching our pitchers to own the strike zone. If we can get our hitters to do the same, I would be ecstatic
http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/
by Aaron Fix on Jun 6, 2008 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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