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The End of An Era?

Or:  Reading Between the Lines.

As the Twins look to trim a pitcher from the roster, are we at the end of Juan Rincon's tenure with the team?

Earlier this year I asked whether Juan Rincon could have a career after 2008.  Even last May I was talking about how good Rincon was.  Here's the thing...I'm happy to say I've always been a big fan of Rincon, and I've always hoped for a rebound, especially when he's struggled, but as the days wear on this season it really appears that it's never going to happen with the Twins.

If the Twins must have a performance like this from a bullpen pitcher, it has to be from a guy who's making less than a seven-digit income.  There's no reason to pay a guy millions of dollars to come into a game and just get owned.

Ultimately, I believe the only reason the Twins went with a 13-man pitching staff is because they've been searching for someone to take Rincon off of their hands.  Because whether they keep him on the roster and just don't use him unless they're forced to, or if they send him through waivers and nobody picks him up, Minnesota would still be on the hook for his salary.  So they protect him by bringing up another pitcher, so they don't have to use him and risk damage to themselves or further damage to Rincon's appeal, and hope that they can find someone willing to give something back in exchange for a reclaimation project.

What you'd be able to get back from Rincon could be any combination of three things:  money, personnel or roster space.  The first thing I'd be looking to do, if I'm Bill Smith, is find someone who's willing to not just take Juan Rincon but to pick up what's due on his salaray for the rest of the season as well.  In hopes of making that a reality, I'm also asking for a mid-level prospect who's still two or three years away from breaching the major leagues.  Once the opposing GM is done laughing at me, we could negotiate down from there.

After talking up Rincon's health, makeup and discussing the things necessary for him to regain his form, if I'm able to come away convincing the other GM to take the pitcher's salary, I'd probably make a deal.  Without the prospect.  Making roster space and clearing a dead salary would be my number one priorities.

One scenario which is likely rearing its ugly head is that no team is willing to pay a struggling relief pitcher more than half of his $2.5 million dollar contract for the rest of 2008.  It's very likely that opposing GM's will be countering Bill Smith by saying they'd take Rincon off his hands to help him clear roster space, but would require the Twins to still be on the books for the money.  Even though there's nothing like paying the salary of a guy who doesn't play for you anymore, in this case it's likely the Twins are still listening, because it's not a good idea to chase away what potential suitors Rincon may have.  There probably aren't many.

At this point I'm making it sound like I'm wary of where this potential deal is heading and what it does for my team, but also that I'd be willing to make it work if we can get a low-A or A-ball prospect thrown in.  If I'm paying for a guy who isn't on my team, I'm still looking to get something more back than roster space.

This is all speculation on my part--everything from the idea that the Twins have 13 pitchers so that they can move Juan, to exactly what the Twins could be looking for in a deal--but it makes sense.

If the Twins are indeed looking to move the player who's been with the Twins longer than anyone else, one of the scenarios above are the likely endgame.  Either a team takes Rincon and his salary and that's the end of it, or the Twins pay Rincon's salary while he pitches for someone else and the Twins also get some 20-year old quasi-prospect in return.  I can't really say I have a preference either way.  All I know is that Juan's time in Minnesota has probably come to an end, and the Twins need his roster spot.

It's been a good run, Juan, and we've had some good times.  But now I need to break up with you.  Good luck.

Poll
If the Twins do make a move on Juan Rincon, what are they getting in return?
  • Just roster space. They'll have to pay the tab.
  • Roster space and his salary off the books.
  • Roster space and a non-prospect. We're picking up the tab.
  • He won't be traded, he'll stay on the roster.
  • He won't be traded, he'll clear waivers.

  95 votes | Results

1 recs | Comment 4 comments

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Rincon and a deal

Nice essay, Jesse, and a good look at what the Twins are probably trying to do with Rincon.

Looking at it from the perspective of another GM, however, I don’t really see any of these things happening. To put that in perspective, let’s propose a GM coming to the Twins with a similar (though not identical) offer:

The Philadephia Phillies currently own the rights to left-handed reliever Steve Kline. Kline pitched very well for the Cardinals in 2001 (1.80 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and 2004 (1.79 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), but was let go after the 2004 season and since then has been bouncing around baseball as a league-average pitcher or slightly worse:

2005 – Orioles – 4.28 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
2006 – Giants – 3.68 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
2007 – Giants – 4.70 ERA, 1.65 WHIP

So Pat Gillick calls up Bill Smith, saying that he notices that the Twins are in the market for lefty relievers, that he’s got one who’s had some good seasons sitting in AAA, and that he’d be happy to move him in exchange for:

- Two million dollars and
- Matt Macri

I think Smith’s reaction would be, as you note, laughter. Sure, Macri isn’t really a prospect, but he’s got more value than a 35-year old pitcher in AAA. And two million dollars for a AAA pitcher? Why not just wait for the guy (or some other guy, like Breslow) to be waived and get him for the waiver price?

What I see as the most likely result is that Rincon is DFAed, clears waivers, and refuses the assignment to AAA. Part of the reason this may be taking so long is that the CBA designates that a player who is ‘out of options’ must be given 8 days notice prior to being assigned, and that such notifications are confidential (and a club can get into trouble by leaking such notice before the designated assignment day, though as in the case of Manny Ramirez, the issue is seldom enforced).

Presuming that the process started sometime last week (say, after Rincon took the loss on May 31 against the Yankees), we should see a resolution within the next day or so.

by dwintheiser on Jun 8, 2008 1:25 PM EDT   0 recs

It sounds like you know more about

the intricate rules than I do—I was unaware of the 8-days rule. Which also sounds like a horror movie. (Just when you thought 28 Days wasn’t enough time…they changed it to 8. 8 Days, starring Donald Sutherland…Sutherland: My dear god, what have we DONE?...Drew Barrymore…Barrymore: But I never took chemistry class!...and introducing Jesse Lund as “The Kid”...Jesse: According to my calculations, this weapon has a 388 VORBW and will kill us all in 8 days. Sutherland: A rating of 388 Value Over Replacement Biological Weapon? Barrymore: Oh no! All the puppies! [Lots of explosions] 8 Days. Rated R.)

Back to baseball…

In some ways I think I could make an argument that would sell Kline much easier than Rincon. First, he’s a southpaw, and if your token bullpen lefty is really sucking it up, an average one that you could protect as a LOOGY (see: Dennys Reyes) could have some value for certain organizations. If Reyes was unable to handle his five batters per week, for example, I could see the Twins picking up Kline and utilizing him in that role.

But again, for Rincon you couldn’t ask for $2 million and a major-league ready prospect. I think the Twins will be fortunate (if not lucky) to find someone to take Rincon AND his contract. Glancing through the majors though, there are some teams with incredibly shoddy bullpens that have nothing to lose on a reclaimation project…especially if they don’t have to pay the tab. If all it’s going to cost them is some 19 or 20-year old kid in A-ball, who they’re not really all that high on anyway, it’s not such a bad deal.

All things necessary for this to work-a team with a bad bullpen, the Twins willing to pay for Juan Gone (har har), finding a non-prospect the Twins like and the opposing team is willing to part with-make it a tough one to pull off. But I don’t think it’s really that far-fetched.

Of course, having said that, I will be surprised if it happens. Theory sometimes works better when it’s just theory, and not practice.

by Jesse on Jun 9, 2008 12:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Juan gone, but somebody will take a chance on him

The Boston Red Sox designation Julian Tevares for assignment in early May. He was horrible this year, carrying an ERA of 6.9 and a WHIP of 2.2 and he was 4 for 6 in allowing inherited runners to score. After the 10-day period, he was released and the Brewers picked him up. He’s been pretty good since, carrying an ERA of 3.6 and WHIP of 1.4.

By comparison, Rincon has an ERA of 6.11 and a WHIP of 1.7, and he’s 8-8 in allowing inherited runners to score (that sucks btw). The Twins will DFA him and release him after the requisite 10-day period, whereupon some national league team in a division that hasn’t seen him in a couple of years will pick him up and he’ll do decently. Maybe the Mets will bite with their bullpen woes and his friendship with Johan.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 9, 2008 12:26 PM EDT   0 recs

The really interesting question is, whom do you call up?

DFAing Rincon is a foregone conclusion. You need another middle infielder, at least until Putno gets back, which will be awhile according to Gardy. (They’re going to do the Scott Baker thing with him.) Luke Hughes is back on the DL. None of the regular middle infielders at Rochester is worth much.

How about this: Bring Plouffe up, stick him out there everyday and in the 9 hole, and see what happens. Best case, he takes the job and runs with it and you’ve got your middle infield for the forseable future. Worst case, he sucks until Punto (or Tolbert) gets back. But, in the process, he finds out where his game need improvement before he’s called up again, and he works on those things for the rest of the year.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 9, 2008 1:14 PM EDT   0 recs

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