Relief Failure

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2008 11:13 AM EDT in By the Numbers

Bullpen faulters, Tiger comeback ousts good start by Perkins.

For the first time in over a week, the Minnesota bullpen allowed a run. Following a strong performance from Glen Perkins, who left the game in the seventh with a 4-1 lead, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in particular saw the game fall down around them. The Detroit Tigers, a team just as hot as the Twins in recent weeks, put together a pair of 2-run innings late in the game and came away with the win.

While the bullpen this season hasn't been as vaunted, or as intimidating, as it's been in recent years, the primary four haven't been bad. Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Dennys Reyes and Matt Guerrier (and even Craig Breslow) have pitched pretty well. That got me to thinking...who have put forward the best seasons as a reliever over the handful of seasons in the 2000's as the Twins have been competetive? We'll start in 2001, the Twins' first winning season in almost a decade. Also, we'll judge "best performance" by ERA+, which is the ratio of the league's ERA (adjusted to the pitcher's park) to that pitcher. A rating of greater than 100 is above average, and a rating of less than 100 is below average.

With that, the top 20 performances since 2001:

Pitcher	Year	ERA+	IP	WHIP
D. Reyes	2006	504	50.2	0.987
J. Nathan	2008	292	33.2	0.950
J. Nathan	2004	292	72.1	0.982
J. Nathan	2006	283	68.1	0.790
L. Hawkins	2003	243	77.1	1.086
J. Crain	2004	236	27.0	1.074
J. Romero	2002	236	81.0	1.210
J. Nathan	2007	230	71.2	1.019
L. Hawkins	2002	210	80.1	0.971
P. Neshek	2006	204	37.0	0.784
M. Guerrier	2007	184	88.0	1.045
J. Rincon	2005	181	77.0	1.208
J. Rincon	2004	180	82.0	1.024
D. Reyes	2008	171	23.2	1.183
J. Nathan	2005	165	70.0	0.971
J. Crain	2005	164	79.2	1.130
E. Guardado	2003	157	65.1	0.980
J. Rincon	2006	154	74.1	1.345
E. Guardado	2002	153	67.2	1.049
P. Neshek	2007	147	70.1	1.009

As you can see, I've thrown in performers from this season where they'd match up against our historical relief pitchers if the season finished today. The next best performance from this year's crop would be from Jesse Crain, who placed 25th. For the purpose of this exercise I removed Johan Santana's '03 numbers, since he did make a significant number of starts.

Over the years, the Twins certainly haven't had a derth of quality bullpens. The biggest strength the last couple seasons has been at the back end with Nathan, while earlier successes revolved around a pair of set-up men as opposed to the closer. One thing's for sure: Reyes had one hell of a year in 2006!

Hopefully as this season takes shape, guys like Guerrier and Crain can continue the recent tradition of great bullpens, stepping into the void when the heirarchy breaks down. They've been admirable, but both have a ways to go before they can crack this list.

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Just realized...

...nobody from the ‘01 relief corps made this list. It wasn’t a very good group…

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2008 11:19 AM EDT 0 recs

By Year

2001
Nobody

2002
J.C. Romero
LaTroy Hawkins
Eddie Guardado

2003
LaTroy Hawkins
Eddie Guardado

2004
Joe Nathan
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon

2005
Joe Nathan
Jesse Crain
Juan Rincon

2006
Joe Nathan
Juan Rincon
Dennys Reyes
Pat Neshek

2007
Joe Nathan
Pat Neshek
Matt Guerrier

2008
Joe Nathan
Dennys Reyes

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2008 11:25 AM EDT 0 recs

holy cow

we all knew Dennys had a good year in 2006, but who would have guessed that it was THAT good? Looks like he righted the ship so far this year after what appeared to be a slow start to the season. Now, could I bother you to post his era+ from 2007? I want to test my memory, because I didn’t think he had all that good a year that year.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 1, 2008 11:26 AM EDT 0 recs

Reyes ERA+

2007: 109

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

109

not the reliever of 2006, but still on the positive side of the ledger.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 1, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up 0 recs

p.s.

Dwintheiser posted an interesting read on the A.L. central blog that breaks down the pitching staff’s performance related to the past several Twins’ winning seasons. He makes the argument that the pitchers were more important than the hitters overall:

http://thealcentralblog.com/2008/06/they-digging-in-wrong-place.html

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 1, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up 0 recs

It's true, of course.

Pitching has always been at the core of the Twins’ success since ‘01/’02, whether it’s starters or relievers or both. And over the course of our winning streak, they were equally as important as the offense….clearly moreso in close games, less so in blowouts. But nonetheless, pitching has been this team’s hallmark for years.

I think offense can sometimes just be easier to measure…it’s why I only measures offense last week when talking about our winning streak—I was doing pitching as well, but it got to be overly tedious, considering how much time I had to crunch the numbers. I don’t think anyone out there doubts the merits of the Twins pitching staff, especially over our mediocre offenses…if’s just that offensive numbers can be sexier and a bit more seductive.

by Jesse on Jul 1, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

Reyes

Reyes definitely had a great year in 2006 (and he’s been great so far this year), but his ERA+ is distorted because he doesn’t pitch entire innings. Specialists ERA’s aren’t a good comparison statistic, because if you come in with outs already on the board, the odds of giving up runs are significantly reduced. OBP against (or WHIP) and SLG against seem like much more meaningful statistics. Further, the burden on a guy who usually comes in to face 1 or 2 batters is higher, because he is getting his best matchups.

by snolls on Jul 1, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Inherited runners

Reyes’s ERA is misleading. Bring him in with runners on and he will let them score. Then his runners get stranded by the guy who comes in to bail him out.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 1, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Is his WHIP misleading too?

It’s not easy to predict exactly when a relief pitcher is going to give up a hit, but if he’s only allowing baserunners on at a 1.18 clip, that’s a pretty good indicator that he’s got good stuff this year and is pretty reliable to get outs.

by TMW on Jul 1, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Splits

My biggest complaint is his splits. He’s good against lefties. But righties are hitting .364 /.462/ .485 /.946 against him. That’s why I was so upset when Ulger brought Reyes in to pitch to a switch hitter, and he promptly hit a base hit to left to score inherited runners.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 1, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Perkins should have finished that inning

He threw 91 pitches and he got pulled because he couldn’t retire Granderson, one of the hottest hitters in the game right now, for his 11th out in a row.

I really wish I didn’t watch that game. Between that early pulling, having Delmon run on that full count to Buscher and getting doubled off, and Guerrier coming back to earth, I lost 2 hours of sleep being pissed off about the game and had to fall asleep watching “Devil Wears Prada.”

by TMW on Jul 1, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes

When Ulger came out, I had one of those rants usually reserved for Gardy, when he bunts with LeCroy at second or something. He was just sailing along until the Tiger’s hottest hitters takes a ball off his shoe tops for a base hit, and Ulger pulls him. I’m still pissed about that. If he lets him get the last two outs of the inning, Guerrier starts the eighth inning fresh against all right handers, and he still has Reyes, Crain, and Breslow in case of trouble. It just didn’t make sense.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 1, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

BTW

Reyes has given up runs to 13 inherited runners this year.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 1, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Inherited Runners

Where do you find the numbers for inherited runners? I couldn’t find it on Baseball Reference or Baseball Prospectus, which are my go-to sites for basically everything.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 1, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

Baseball Reference

Since there is no line in BR’s site for inherited runner/scored, you have to interpret the stats. I hope my methodology is right. He’s given up 12 runs with runners on base. But, since he’s only brought in to get one batter at a time, with runners on base, the runs he’s given up are not his own. I suppose we could find out another way. Compare his earned runs to runs allowed. Let me do that. Be right back.

OK, I’m back.

He’s given up 13 runs with men on and 6 earned runs, with no unearned runs. Ergo, he has allowed 7 inherited runners to score, not 13.

Anybody have a better way of finding this out?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 1, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Twins found a way to lose

When you lose a tough game, it’s tough. But, the Tigres deserve some credit when a kid like Joyce comes off the bench and rips a game-changing triple off your set up man.

Maybe Perkins sets them down, maybe he doesn’t. Between now and a week from Sunday, the Twins have 6 games against Detroit. We will find out soon enough whether this was an aberration.

Remember that the Tigres took out our bullpen twice in Detroit earlier in the year, with big comebacks late. This may be a trend.

by Old Twins Cap on Jul 1, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up 0 recs