Rob Neyer - Hernandez is getting hit historically hard

by Neil on Jul 11, 2008 12:37 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

A great take on Livan's season by Rob Neyer at ESPN.com.

For those of you that cannot access the link, here's the meat of the article:

Only six pitchers since the 19th century have given up more than 12.5 hits per nine innings, and all of them pitched from 1929 through 1937.
Until this year. (Yes, we have finally arrived at the point of this little history lesson.) On Wednesday, pitching against the Red Sox, Livan Hernandez was touched for 11 hits before getting yanked in the fifth inning. In 120 2/3 innings this season, Hernandez has given up 173 hits. That's 12.9 hits per nine innings, which -- if Hernandez maintains that rate -- would be the highest figure for an ERA qualifier since Ray Benge gave up 12.94 hits per nine innings in 1936. Since World War II, only two pitchers -- LaTroy Hawkins in 1999 and Carlos Silva in 2006 -- have given up more than 12 hits per nine innings. Notice a pattern here? Hawkins and Silva were both Minnesota Twins, like Hernandez. Silva was (and is) an extreme control pitcher, like Hernandez. The problem is that it's very difficult to win if you're giving up a dozen hits per nine innings. Hawkins went 10-14 with a 6.66 ERA; Silva went 11-15 with a 5.94 ERA. Which makes Hernandez's season all the more remarkable. He's giving up more hits than those guys did, yet even after Wednesday's pasting in Boston he's 9-6 with a 5.44 ERA. And I'm sorry to keep hammering on this point, but while Hernandez is working his way toward an unflattering distinction, Francisco Liriano is making monkeys of International League hitters. Hernandez is earning $5 million this season. The other four members of the Twins' rotation, all put together, are making less than one-fourth of that. So when it's time to bring Liriano up -- which is to say, yesterday at the very latest -- who loses his job? One of the young, ill-paid, but effective starters? Or will it be instead the Les Sweetland of the 21st century? We can only wait and see.

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Pressure is on

It’s good that this is in the media. It will be harder for the Twins organization to ignore, prevaricate and delay.

To be fair, with respect to Liriano, there is his Super-2 status lurking in the background. But in terms of money, dumping Livan and having to fork over a little more dough to Liriano at arbitration is likely a windfall in the Twins favor.

Probably, with the All-Star break happening, the Twins brass will reconnoiter and get a strategy together. Going with the All-Younguns rotation makes too much sense, not only for this year, but into the here-beyond.

While Livan eats innings, the occasional blow-out, while you are fighting for a division crown, has a disproportionate impact on morale. Whereas, seeing a young stud, like Liriano, dispatch with ML hitters has that kind of, “yes, we can” impact on a young team.

And this is a really young team.

by Old Twins Cap on Jul 11, 2008 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

slight disagreement

Whereas, seeing a young stud, like Liriano, dispatch with ML hitters has that kind of, "yes, we can" impact on a young team.

hahaha…good one! If only he could. Liriano can come back and be “better” than Hernandez sure. But Liriano will not make it past the 5th inning most nights and in some nights he will do well, and in other nights he will do poorly. We have someone who does mostly poorly but some nights does well in Hernandez already. The added bonus is that Hernandez keeps us from having to rely on a shaky relief corps – which is already likely to start getting overworked as our younger starters start hitting arm-fatigue mode.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 11, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have any data to back that up?

How do you know what Liriano will do as a starter? Last start he threw 87 pitches, 60 for strikes and made a clean 7 innings of shut out ball, with 3 hits.

I’d like to know more about how his slider is coming along, but from the numbers I can see, the Kid is in form and ready to contribute. And yes, the sooner the Twins assemble their core and give them the chance to play and get to know each other the better.

by Old Twins Cap on Jul 11, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"datas, we don't need no stinkin' datas!"

How do you know what Liriano will do as a starter? Uuuuuuuuhhhhhh…..I don’t know how he will do as a starter any more, or any less, than you know how he will do as a starter.

However, you stated that Liriano will: <em>dispatch with ML hitters in a way that will have some kind of (amorphous, vague, non-meaningful) “yes, we can” impact on a young team. That is your opinion, without any “stats” or “data” to back up your opinion. I have no problem with that, but I do disagree with that “opinion.”

Your defensive backpedaling to “data” is humorous, but if it is data you want, data I will give you, sir. (Remember, you told us that Liriano will “dispatch with ML hitters”, not minor league hitters)

In 2008, Liriano has an ERA of 11.32 against “ML hitters”.

In 2008, Liriano has a win-loss record of 0-3 in the major leagues.

In 2008, Liriano has pitched 10 innings in 3 games; or an avergage of 3.33 innings/start.

In 2008, Liriano has given up 15 hits and 13 walks in 10 innings against “ML hitters”.

In 2008, Liriano has a whip of 2.8 (?) against “ML hitters”.

You may not like that data, but given your statements (and opinion) regarding how Liriano will do against “ML hitters”, it is the only direct data we have.

I think we can all agree that Liriano will be better now than he was during that first callup, but in the absence of stats or data my opinion of how he will do is just as valid as your opinion of how he will do. If you would like to try and tell me I am full of hot air until I provide you with data, then I suggest the data we have for Liriano against “ML hitters” is ample support for my opinion that Liriano will not dominate “ML hitters” or “dispatch” them in whatever way you are alluding to.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 12, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Have you been paying attention to his stats since June 1? He’s a different pitcher than the one you write about above. He has thrown six innings or more in a dozen consecutive starts without throwing 100 pitches in any of them. He’s on a 21-inning consecutive scoreless streak right now. How much better does he need to pitch than to outpitch a guy who is about to break some kind of record for hits allowed?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 12, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Admittedly,

I haven’t paid that much attention to his minor league numbers. I do remember that he has had some ups and some downs (and a couple of significant downs at that).

I think I was clear when I said he will perform better than Hernandez; I think I was equally clear that when you look at overall performance (including the number of innings which is a significant factor) I don’t see him blowing Hernandez out of the water.

I have a difference of opinion, than a lot of you, apparently, regarding how Liriano will do. Opinions are opinions, and that is what we dabble in on these blogs. I do not believe that Liriano will “dispatch” with ML hitters. I will be happy to be wrong.

Sometimes you win some disagreements of “opinion” sometimes you lose some. I was a lone voice in the off-season regarding Liriano, and how he will do in the big leagues this year. Yes, I was pessimistic, and I know I wasn’t the “only one”, but given the number of positive predictions (and some outright ridiculous ones from people who “BELIEVED” that he would dominate this year like he did in the last half of ‘06), it sure felt like it.

I will remain skeptical of Liriano until he proves me wrong. He will be better than Hernandez – big deal.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 12, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

“which is already likely to start getting overworked as our younger starters start hitting arm-fatigue mode”

Both Baker and Slowey had injury troubles at the beginning of the season so there arms should be solid the rest of the way out. Especially Baker, he’ll be a workhouse the second half. Blackburn shouldn’t have too much troubles either because he ended up throwing 200 innings last year between the minors, majors and then winter ball. Perkins on the other hand I’d be a bit concerned about. His career high for innings is somewhere around 140 and obviously he hardly logged any innings last year.

I’m all for trading Hernandez and calling up Liriano. But that’s also because I’d be committed to calling on either Duensing or Mulvey after shutting Liriano down (after about 6-8 starts). Other options of course would be to reinsert Bonser or even Bass into the rotation. Bass actually has some nice stuff and did his best stuff last year while in Rochester’s rotation. How this organization views things at this point it’s hard to say.

Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?

by caseintheface on Jul 11, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

Both Baker and Slowey had injury troubles at the beginning of the season so there arms should be solid the rest of the way out. Especially Baker, he’ll be a workhouse the second half.

Care to explain? This statement doesn’t seem to have any relationship to the thing we call logic.

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jul 11, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Commenting on montanatwinsfan

He argued that it makes sense to keep Hernandez around because our young starters are probably going to be hitting arm fatigue. I was making the point that Baker had various non-arm injuries to start the season so he’s fresh. Slowey was also injured and hasn’t logged a ton of innings yet. He should also be good unless his bout with tendinitis flares up again.

by caseintheface on Jul 11, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe the young hurlers won't get fatigued as they head toward 175+ innings,

but actually I am not necessarily advocating keeping Hernandez around. I would like to see him traded myself. But I do take a little issue with people who believe that Liriano is going to come up and be significantly more effective than Hernandez (looking at effectiveness in the most wholistic, comprehensive way possible). As I opined above, I do believe Liriano will have a better ERA than Hernandez, and have a better whip than Hernandez, will likely have more strikeouts, fewer walks, and fewer hits than Hernandez.

I also believe that Liriano will be more “consistent” than Hernandez in all of those stats. But I don’t believe that Liriano will be able to eat innings, or provide veteran leadership, calm under pressure, or veteran pitcher savvy that he can pass on to all the other young arms.

At the end of the season I will be happy to have someone make me eat these words, but I believe Liriano will be another, young, fatiguable, inexperienced arm, that will not consistently get the Twins a quality start, and will just add to an already too heavily relied upon bullpen.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 12, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Hey Ho Ho Livan has got to go

I expect a trade to the Mets by the end of the month. But my expectations are more like hopes that predictions.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 11, 2008 2:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not that we need much in return for him

But do the Mets have anything left to offer in their system?

by caseintheface on Jul 11, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Martinez

heh

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jul 11, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pipe dream

If the Twins could somehow package Hernandez and Lamb for Martinez, I wouldn’t need Gin. I could just wallow in the reverie of my pipe dream all evening.

We know the Mets wanted Hernandez in the offseason, but backed away after the Santana trade. And they still need pitching. I would look to A ball for the answer. Here are a couple of random options:

Matt Smith St. Lucie SS 875 OPS Kind of old for that league (25), but could be a sleeper
Sean McGraw Svanah C 782 OPS (22), Twins need catching help

I’m sure the Twins scouts and opposing managers have a list of Mets prospects they like.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 12, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know!

I hear the Mets have some hotshot starter that they just picked up this winter… “Johan” something, must be Dutch. The way Span’s been playing, maybe we go ahead and trade Gomez along with, say, Humber, Mulvey, and maybe a high-end A-ball prospect like Deolis Guerra. I heard the guy’s been underperforming his expectations so far and has a ridiculous contract, so maybe the Twins could get the Mets to pick up some salary. Really, it seems like a win-win trade to me.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 11, 2008 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Henrandez

Is anyone shocked by Livian’s numbers. A quick search and the following have occured. Hernandez has 6 years since 2000 when he has allowed more than 9.5 hits per 9 innings. To show how this ranks that is 6 of the top 80 worst performances of starters pitching more than 200 innings during the last 8 years. Now we can probably throw 2008 in that group if he gets those innings the Twins paid millions.
My question is if a pitcher gets hit hard and allows many runners does he help a team when he can suck for longer periods than pitchers that canoot pitch all those innings?

by beach64 on Jul 13, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs