Adrian Beltre to the Twins?

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 12, 2008 1:11 PM EDT

I will revive this thread, originally posted by Andersklasen because ESPN just ran a segment by BBTN analyst Chris Singelton stating that Adrian Beltre would be the perfect fit for the Minnesota Twins. A 3rd baseman who hits right for power.

Here are his numbers this year in a pitching friendly Safeco Field:

.259 .331 .422 with 16 HR, 46RBI, 38BB and 58SO.

Could he improve on those numbers sandwiched between Mauer and Morneau?

Then again, here is his salary for 2008: $13,400,000. That is a lot of dough for those numbers.

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I hope

that the “internal talks” reaches the Mariners….I have to believe that the M’s will be selling off some of that talent this deadline and I think Beltre would fit very nicely with the Twins. Beltre is not only a right that hits for power but also one of the best defensive third basemen in the league – Gold glove caliber. That is really what the Twins are looking at: his glove.

But, if Beltre can in the process of stopping everything hit to him, jack a few too, that would be a bonus. If the Twins do get him, he would probably save the Twins at least 1-2 runs and probably contribute 1-2 runs on offense (that is huge especially since the Twins like to lose by only 1-3 runs fairly frequently when they do lose).

However, the Twins have only talked internally so far and although I am optimistic of a deal taking place, I have to be real. M’s would probably ask for a combo of Swarzak/Duensing/+1 in order to shift a deal. But maybe if the Twins could convince the M’s into taking say a Swarzak/Mulvey/D McDonald or some such package, I think that would be a fair swap. The Twins have used their salary wisely too, and I am sure that the Twins would be able to sign Beltre into 2012 for about 13-14 million a year. Beltre’s contract comes up the end of 2009 so it is not like we would be selling talent only for 2 months and a playoff push. We would have Beltre for sure next season as well.

I say: Lets give it a shot.

Then again, here is his salary for 2008: $13,400,000. That is a lot of dough for those numbers.

Yes, it is a lot of dough, but it is well deserving dough.

by 33MorneauMVP on Jul 12, 2008 1:37 PM EDT 0 recs

A couple of things

He’d be a great potential long-term answer, but in order for him to come to MN the Twins would require the Mariners to eat a significant portion of what he’s due…simply because he’s way overpaid. Because of that, the Twins would have to dish out a bigger and better list of minor leaguers. I’m not sure it’s worth that.

My main issue is that Beltre is way overpaid for what he can do. Good D and a fantastic arm can’t offset the fact that he doesn’t hit RHP very well….232/288/410 in 271 AB. Versus southpaws he hits 356/472/562, but in just 73 AB. He get paid like a megastar complete player when he’s anything but. He’s a GOOD player-he’d be a big upgrade for the Twins, and depending on what we sent to Seattle in return I might not hate a potential deal. But I honestly think he’s seriously overpriced. And with Seattle looking to rebuild, I don’t think they’ll be taking what we’d consider to be a “fair deal”-they’ll be looking to reap major rewards on the payback.

by Jesse on Jul 12, 2008 1:39 PM EDT 0 recs

Beltre

I think Beltre is probably actually under-rated right now – he is probably a little overpaid but the Twins current payroll is down a bit as well.

True, he has struggled this year against RHP, and is dominating LHP. Both of those are likely going to come back to earth – career wise he is slightly better against LHP (.272/.349/.448) than RHP (.270/.320/.461) but nothing out of the ordinary.

The thing to remember is that he has played his entire career in pitcher’s parks – for his career, he has a .734 OPS at home and a .833 OPS on the road. For the past few years, he is:

2008 – Home .694, Road .851
2007- Home .745, Road .858
2006 – Home .778, Road .805
2005 – Home .694, Road .736.

He seems like he could offer:
OPS around .825, given his road production over the past few years.
Top notch D at 3rd.
Another RH bat to hit in the middle of the lineup somewhere.

Additionally, he is signed for one more full season and other than last year when he played 149 games, has played 156 games or more the past 5 seasons so he doesn’t have any history of being injury prone. Plus he’s only 29 so it’s not like he is ancient or anything.

I think Beltre is actually underrated since he has a big contract and hasn’t had a year like his last contract year in 2004, but he’s been solid pretty much all the way around.

by Diggity Dino on Jul 12, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Steroids and statistics

We’ve certainly had a few people here review Juan Rincon’s statistics and extrapolate which were the results of steroids. How come no one is doing the same regarding Beltre’s highly suspicious 2004 numbers?

by Johnny Safron on Jul 12, 2008 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Possibly

because that was the kind of season people had been expecting him to have since he was pretty highly touted.

by Jesse on Jul 12, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hard to ignore these facts

Ten players have hit exactly 48 home runs in a season in baseball history, and all were between ages 25 and 32 when they did that. Beltre is the youngest to do it, and he’s the only one to never come close to 30 in any other season.

Very odd.

The gap between Beltre and the others is huge and indicting. Those other 9 men peppered their careers with seasons of 30, 40, and 50 home runs.

In addition to the 48-home runs seasons from those other nine players, they combined to have:
40 seasons of at least 30 home runs;
29 seasons of at least 40 home runs;
7 seasons of at least 50 home runs.

That’s 76 seasons of some serious pounding, which on average comes out to more than 8 additional seasons of at least 30 home runs per man.

We are talking about Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famers, and damn-near Hall of Famers.

And then we have Adrian Beltre. He never hit more than 26 in any other season, and he will never be considered for the Hall of Fame.

Those folks who were touting Beltre so highly had some serious mojo going to will Adrian to 48 home runs for one magical season.

by Johnny Safron on Jul 13, 2008 2:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Idea

He could very possibly the long-term solution Minnesota is looking for, and I would support a trade for him. I would expect Seattle to pay some of his monster salary, but I don’t think it’s as bad as you guys think. Minnesota has significantly decreased their payroll after the departure of both Hunter and Santana, and I think a player like Beltre would be worth a little splurge.

He would be everything we are looking for, but would make both Buscher and Macri feel like they got the brunt of the deal. Here’s an idea: if a Beltre deal was going to go down, how about trading one or the other of Buscher and Macri…or both. Maybe even trading Buscher and others to Seattle for Beltre? Just a thought.

Anyway, I think the primary concern for this team is the bullpen. A power bat at third would be nice, obviously, but the bullpen is in bigger disarray.

We need to keep in mind, though, that Punto has a spectacular glove wherever he plays, as well. He is like Beltre, but obviously without the bat. If the Twins can continue to produce runs like they are I would think that this Beltre investment isn’t necessary.

Good discussion starter, though, and I expect the run production to die down significantly in the second half.

Twins Fix
http://www.twinsfix.com

by Andersklasen on Jul 13, 2008 1:23 AM EDT 0 recs

Salary slotting ....

How would Beltre’s paycheck compare to what we’ve committed to the “core” over the next few years?

I would not like to see an inherited contract create problems with guys we say we value more.

by BD57 on Jul 13, 2008 1:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Salary

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Beltre is slated to receive $12 million this season (over half of which has already been paid) and $12 million next year before becoming a free agent. That’s more than any Twin would make over those two seasons, but not excessively more—Nathan is scheduled to make $11.25 per year through 2011, while Morneau’s contract calls for $10.6 million next year and Mauer’s contract calls for $10.5M.

Beltre has a limited no-trade clause, but I’d expect he wouldn’t use it to block a trade to a team that could contend with his help. The bigger issue is that he’s a Boras client, and might be persuaded to refuse a trade simply based on the idea that the Twins wouldn’t re-sign him in 2010.

Even more to the point, while Beltre’s batting numbers do show an extreme home/road split this season (home: .220/694; road: .297/843), the Metrodome actually has an identical three-year park factor and a lower single-season park factor than Safeco Field (Safeco – single season: 97; three-year: 96 Metrodome – single season: 92; three-year: 96), so though some of his split might be due to bad luck or a reduced home-field edge in Seattle, you probably shouldn’t expect him to hit much better as a Twin than he has as a Mariner.

by dwintheiser on Jul 13, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Does anyone really think the Mariners can expect much in return?

The Mariners should be happy to rid themselves of that chunk of money. Remember when the Red Sox put Manny on waivers and no one would take him? Manny was getting $20 million a year (for longer than Beltre) but was also a much better player. Not a single team in Major League Baseball thought it worth their while to pick up the All-Star slugger (certainly one of the best right-handed hitters of this generation) while giving up zero prospects in return. If the Twins offer Buscher and Bass, I don’t see why the Mariners wouldn’t take that.

Another point to make is that the Twins can afford that salary given how under-budget they are this year. I’d rather pay the salary with money we have than give up prospects. Not that I think we really have to give up much.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jul 13, 2008 4:02 PM EDT 0 recs

By that reasoning, though...

...any team could put a superstar on waivers, and none of them would get taken. Therefore, every team willing to move a superstar should be willing to do so for a scrap heap relief pitcher and a career minor leaguer/major league backup on a hot streak.

Manny’s situation was unique…partially because of the money he was due, partially because of his age, partially because of hit attitude and partially because of the personell situation for teams who would have been able to afford him.

Ultimately, Beltre isn’t known as a “problem child”, is still under 30, and is due less money than Ramirez was. It’s a different situation, and superstars can’t be had for nothing.

by Jesse on Jul 13, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

superstars

Manny’s situation was unique

and Beltre is not anything close to being a superstar.

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jul 13, 2008 7:20 PM EDT 0 recs

If you want

to get into a debate about whether or not Beltre is a superstar, that’s fine, but it’s a different conversation.

Beltre is a very good player—it’s the reason you want him. It’s the reason I want him, at an ideal price. But he’s 29, has 233 career home runs and is a Gold Glove caliber third baseman. You can’t have him for peanuts, which is what Buscher and Bass would be.

by Jesse on Jul 13, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Unless

The Mariners were desperate to unload salary. But they’re well funded. It would take more than the Twins can reasonably give up to get him. I personally would rather see a Buscher/Macri platoon until Valencia is ready. That could be as early as next year. He’s already made the adjustment to AA after tearing up high A ball in the first half.

Even if you could get him without damaging your farm system, you still have to pay him. That’s $6 million this year and $12 million next year. Think of what you can do with $12 million in the offseason. Is Beltre that much better than Buscher/Macri to make up for what you could get with $12 million? I highly doubt it.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 13, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know about the offseason

Look what 12 million got us this offseason? Lamb, Livan, Monroe? I’d like to think the Twins would drop 12 million in one spot and get something good but then again look what 12 million got the Mariners in Silva? The other thing to look at is who is out there in free agency that would help us this offseason that we could realistically have a shot at?

You have to get to give and I for one am in favor of giving some stuff up for Beltre. I have no idea what prospect we could/should give up for Beltre but I’m probably more willing to give up a good low level prospect that we don’t know if they’ll pan out or not, but someone with enough potential to make them give up Beltre. Maybe even two younger guys and then make them take Lamb off of our hands as well. Taking Lamb would do two things for us, #1 open up roster space and #2 in essence eat a part of Beltre’s salary.

I for one like what Buscher has done this year but am most definitely not sold on him being the answer at 3B. I’d like him as a bat off the bench/spot starter at 3B/1B.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 13, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

well is there any word on whether they are looking to unload Beltre?

If they don’t care about his monster salary then it might be tough to get him.

If the Twins were paying an OK hitting 3B $13 million per year while maintaining the worst record in the league, I would want to unload that salary. Of course I would want (but not expect) great prospects. But I think I would settle for young, cheap guys (ok Bass/Buscher was too low, but I don’t think we have to part with Swarzak).

http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/

by Aaron Fix on Jul 13, 2008 11:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

If

If the twins gave up enough talent (prob not THAT much), the mariners would probably pay some salary.

Suppose they threw in $5 m of the $18 m he is owed. We give them Buscher plus Swarzak Duesning plus one of Bonser/Bass/Korecky. They would get a 3B downgrade (Buscher), but save a load of money. They would get a decent prospect (swarzak/duensing), they get to choose between potential and consistency. They also get an extra part, to help fill the bullpen, or bonser who may be able to find whatever he lost.

Seems like they would save money, get on the rebuilding path, and get a little bit of talent. The twins would have an answer at 3B for at least a year and a half, for $4 m this year and $9 m next year.

He really does seem perfect for the twins. Reliable in the field, RH, who hits for power. Should add some balance to the lineup.

by snolls on Jul 14, 2008 12:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm warming to the idea

I don’t know how we can afford him next year, but I suppose when you add up Hernandez+Monroe+Rincon+Everett, you get Beltre’s salary. And if they can manage to trade Lamb, that would free up more salary. I wouldn’t bet on that, though.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 14, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

What if

Here’s another idea:
What if the trade was structured so that no money changed hands, but the twins unloaded some salary.

It could be:
Lamb + Hernandez + Monroe + Swarzak + Buscher FOR Beltre

The twins save about $7 million by getting rid of the first three, and give up a high talent pitcher (who needs development), and a decent 3B who is unnecessary once we have Beltre. The mariners reduce their payroll for next year by about $10 million, and get two prospects of some value.

by snolls on Jul 14, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

3rd party

I can’t imagine Seattle wanting either Monroe or Hernandez. You don’t trade a valuable piece like Beltre without getting something in return. Lamb and Buscher really aren’t “something”. Monroe and Hernandez are dead weights. That leaves you with Swarzak.

Now ask yourself if you were the G.M. of Seattle would YOU trase Beltre for Swarzak?

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 14, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hernandez' trade value

is to a contending club that needs a reliable 5th starter. Not to a team that is out of contention abd looking to rebuild.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 14, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

I

I didn’t mean that they would want Hernandez & Monroe. I meant that by having the Mariners pay those salaries, the Twins would save some $$, and the both of those contracts expire at the end of the year, so they don’t affect the mariners next year.

It was just an idea of a way to make it work (inspired by all of the T-wolves trades, mostly). It may not make sense, but I see the issue as whether Swarzak and Buscher are enough. Maybe they aren’t, and then you add Span to the deal or something.

by snolls on Jul 14, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

I can see that

but I just cant see the Mariners thinking Swarzak and Buscher are enough.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 14, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

you’re probably right, i have no idea how teams value prospects. Swarzak, Buscher and Span? I think the premise to the trade is that Seattle would want to unload the contract, so I was thinking we wouldn’t have to give up any top talent (Revere, Guerra, Blackburn, Slowey). I don’t know how many second tier talents it takes.

by snolls on Jul 14, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Question

Does that mean that we can officially start referring to him as “Craig Monroe’s Expiring Contract”?

Apologies to Bill Simmons.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 14, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

You're stock just went up ten points in my book

I love Bill Simmons.

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 15, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

I used yo love Bill Simmons

Then after the Red Sox won the world series, the shine wore off, and his self-indulgent narcissism started showing.

Then he started getting nearly unreadable as a gloating, indulgent, Patriots fan.

I was down to reading only those things that appeared to be humorous, all the while sufferring through his anger and hostility at Doc Rivers and others… ...I assumed he must know what he is talking about.

Then, this year, I quit him altogether. He spent nearly the entire NBA season lambasting Doc Rivers and Kevin Garnett. Saying that the two of them will hold the Celtics back and guarantee they would not win the NBA championship.

Its o.k. to be wrong, but Simmons insisted, and persisted, in being outright stupid MEAN toward Doc Rivers, who ultimately outcoached Jackson (amongst others).

I no longer even read Simmons at all.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 15, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/twins-inquire-o.html

Hypothetical 2nd half lineup

Where does Beltre fit in? Do they sandwich him between Morneau and Mauer? It might make sense but since they both are doing so well it’s nice having them back to back. Considering in the past Gardy has liked to go left right left etc. Here’s a possible lineup for the 2nd half if we were to get Beltre

1 2B Alexi Casilla
2 C Joe Mauer
3 3B Adrian Beltre
4 1B Justin Morneau
5 DH Jason Kubel
6 LF Delmon Young
7 SS Nick Punto
8 CF Carlos Gomez
9 RF Denard Span

I realize this is very fluid, Gardy will be stubborn about moving Mauer and Gomez in the lineup. It also does not account for Cuddy getting healthy. If he comes back then I figure you slide him in at 6 or 7 and slide everyone else down a bit. Having 3 good power guys 3-5 would be a dream my friends.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 14, 2008 3:49 AM EDT 0 recs

I know commenting on my own comment is lame

Damn that would shore up our defense. Something that was a bit of a liability with Lamb/Buscher and Harris manning the left side would now be tremendous with the Beltre/ Punto combination. I could definitely handle that. especially when Blackburner is pounding in to the dirt.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 14, 2008 3:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

That'd be the ideal lineup

But, it’s Ron Gardenhire.
So,
1. Carlos Gomez
2. Alexi Casilla
3. Joe Mauer
4. Justin Morneau
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Michael Cuddyer (you forgot that he’s coming back?)
7. Young
8. Kubel
9. Punto

That’d be what Gardy would do, maybe flip Kubel and young. That’s still pretty formidable. He won’t move Gomez from the lead-off spot.. I wish they would just send him down to work on patience and have Span take over the lead-off spot (or casilla). So many problems would be solved.

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 14, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

That lineup is pretty solid

Especially since Harris gets some of the Punto at bats and Span gets some of the outfield at bats

by snolls on Jul 14, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's not terrible

But it’s just frustrating because Gardy NEEDS Gomez at the top

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 14, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

I posted this on the front page thread,

Thought I’d repost here:

I doubt he would cost much in prospects, given the money he’s owed this year and next. And the Twins can afford it. Beltre is actually pretty consistent, if you just forget about the great year he had for the Dodgers. He’s an above average hitter with an emphasis on slugging, and a terrific fielder. Further, though he’s owed 13 million next year, that really isn’t such a commitment given the salaries today, especially for only one season.

Another player whose name has been batted around in Kevin Kouzmanoff of the Padres. He’s a similar hitter to Beltre, actually, and a reasonalbe, but not great defender. The Padres want to move Chase Headley to 3rd, so he might be available. (His numbers are depressed-especially his slugging-by PETCO).

Here’s the thing, though—Kouzmanoff isn’t even arb eligible for another year. This means he’s cheap salary-wise, but will be expensive player-wise. I’d rather spend the cash on Beltre, I think.

by Eric in Madison on Jul 14, 2008 5:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Beltre's a better fit

First, I don’t think you can’t underestimate Beltre’s defense. This team values defense more than any other in the league. Its starters pitch to contact and its everyday players are supposed to catch the ball. Beltre is an elite defender, the kind of guy we have not had at third since Gary Gaetti. And, yes, Punto is not in that class.

Second, when you look at the Twins system, the third baseman of the future is in AA (either Hughes or Valencia). Beltre is just a bridge to one of those guys. Kouzmanoff is more of a long-term solution. IMO, the Twins would rather develop the long-term solution by making him into a good defender before he makes it to the majors. Kouzmanoff’s defense is not likely to improve much, now that he’s made it in another organization.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 15, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up 0 recs