I don't know what to name this, but involves off-season contracts Carlos Gomez, and Denard Span

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 14, 2008 10:36 AM EDT Comment 31 comments

Let me start out by saying that The Twins are a frugal team, a team that in the past has made attempts to spend about as little as possible and still contend, but this mindset has been changing with the team moving into the new stadium in a few years, they've been looking at locking up good young talent for a while. Joe Mauer was given an extension a few years ago, a very good decision as Joe has become one of the (if not the) best young catchers.

Over the past offseason, the Twins decided to reward two players for their commitment to the team, and the numbers that they put up for the Twins. Morneau was given a six year 80 million dollar contract, worth relatively 13.3 million dollars a year, it was the Twins longest and highest paying contract ever. Michael Cuddyer got a 3 year 24 million dollar contract.

Morneau's contract is a team friendly offer, 13 million dollars for a batter whom over the past three years has hit .303/.367/.522 while hitting over thirty home runs over the past two years. Although he's not on pace to hit as many home runs as in past years, he's a good power/contact guy that will hold down the middle of the order for the next 6 years. This contract was fantastic.

On the other handwhen the team handed Michael Cuddyer his contract, they were giving a 28 year old career 269/344/442 hitter who had just come off of his two best seasons as a professional ball player. Between the 2006 and 2007 seasons Michael Cuddyer put up a .280/.354/.469 line with a total of 40 home runs.

This season has been a let down for Cuddyer, between his injuries making him miss 33 games so far and hitting .252/.324/.376 it looks like Cuddyer has slumped a little since receiving the contract. While Cuddyer has been slumping Denard Span has come up and put up surprising numbers for the Twins.

Span, the 20th draft pick in 2002 has been another pleasant surprise for the Twins with his .329/.429/.423 line in 25 games. While a .397 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has been quite a help, these numbers seem kind of out of whack for a career player who's minor league .287/.355/.358 line is nothing to gawk at. The question is, what can we expect out of Span from here out? One can only assume that his AVG/OBP/SLG will all drop, but may remain respectable, as it is a possibility that he has turned a leaf as his .340/.434/.481 line in AAA this year has shown that he is having a great year at both the major league and AAA level.

So where do we go from here? With Cuddyer mired in a semi-bad year and Span having a good year, what can the Twins do? Well, the best thing would be to move Carlos Gomez and his abysmal .253/.287/.351 stats out of the lead-off spot and maybe down to triple-a to get some time to work on his swing and patience. Span has played Centerfield in the minors and would be a suitable replacement. This would also fix the logjam when Cuddyer came back as he could just take back over in right.

But, as we've all experienced, it's the Twins.

So Gomez is staying, and someone not as deserving will be demoted.

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Span's BABIP

I just looked it up at FanGraphs, and Span so far has a line drive percentage of 31%. Generally, a player’s BABIP will be roughly 12% better than his LD%, so it could be argued that he’s actually been unlucky with that .397 figure. Not that I necessarily expect Span to keep up that rate (for comparison, Joe Mauer’s LD% is 22%), but so far it looks like Span’s been good, not just lucky.

As for the upcoming roster crunch, I’m with you that sending down Gomez would probably be the best solution, taking into account just this season. As for how it affects the future, whether a demotion would affect Gomez’s confidence (or whether it would do him any good at all) is something I of course can’t answer. Certainly Span has shown himself to be the superior offensive player at this moment, and I don’t know that he’d be much, if any, worse in center than Gomez.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 14, 2008 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd assume that Gomez is better as he's been in the top 1/3 of the league in defense

But they may not want to mess around and waste options on gomez.

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 14, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wasting options

is not an issue. A guy gets a certain number (I think 3) of option years after being added to the 40-man roster. It doesn’t matter how many times he gets sent back and forth between the majors and minors.

But I still think they should keep Gomez in the majors. Move him to the bottom of the order, yes, but still let him keep starting in center.

by Hoya on Jul 14, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

options

But they haven’t used an option on him this year. He’s been in the majors since day 1. Because of this if they were to send him down, this counts as a option year.

by GACTwinFan on Jul 15, 2008 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gardy

Gardy has said he wants to keep Span on the major league roster even after Cuddy is healthy.
Also, it sounds like Cuddy is nowhere close to being back from the DL

by DedicatedFollowerOfFashion on Jul 14, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's what I'd love to see happen

Gomez down to no. 8 or 9 in the batting order. Have Casilla lead off and bump up Mauer. Trade for Beltre and put him in the 3rd spot. Then of course Morneau, Kubel and then some fluidity. I say this because I thin they should keep Span up and bat him 9th (Gomez 8th if they’re both playing) and have Span start a game a week in left, right, and maybe even 2 in center. With Span batting 9th we can keep the top of the order consistent since Span won’t be an everyday player and we still get that “2nd leadoff guy thing” Span and Casilla following Gomez is perfect since both are patient hitters who are willing to take some pitches and give Gomez a chance to run when he does get on base. I don’t think it would ruin Gomez’s psyche if the team presented it correctly. I think it would really just relieve some pressure on the guy, give him a chance to settle down and work more on his swing. I’m not a fan of sending him to AAA because of his defensive skills. I think if we were to add Beltre our lineup could endure having Gomez in there not hitting as well, especially if Span is giving him a day or two off every week.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jul 14, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't see Beltre at #3

He is basically a .330 OBP hitter (based on the last 5 years or so). He belongs at the bottom of the lineup, right behind or in front of Kubel. He would provide great defense, .775-.800 OPS, and really shore up the bottom of our lineup, but he is not a top of the order hitter. His OBP isn’t much better than Gomez. My ideal lineup (understanding that Gardy is keeping Gomez at #1):

Gomez/Span
Casilla
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddyer
Kubel
Beltre
Young/Span
Harris/Punto

by snolls on Jul 14, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

IF the Twins acquire Beltre, that is the line-up I would expect.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 14, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is a logjam

Don’t forget that Everett is about ready to go, Tolbert is on the mend, too. Then, of course, you have Liriano looking like a stud again in AAA.

I think they dump Bass and trade Hernandez, then move Liriano into the rotation.

Then they keep Span in the outfield and give him some time at all three outfield spots.

Everett gets traded. Tolbert finishes the year at AAA, unless there is an injury, or Lamb gets dealt.

That would give them the ability to platoon Buscher and Harris at third, have switch hitters at short and 2B, and, in the outfield, go all right-handed (Young, Gomez, Cuddyer) or hit Kubel, Span and Cuddyer against a RHP.

Lamb is the odd duck. He could DH against righties if Kubel plays left, but in all likelihood, a trade for a RH 3B means he goes as part of the package.

by Old Twins Cap on Jul 14, 2008 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Keeping Span and Gomez

Are you assuming, then, that Monroe simply gets cut when Cuddyer comes off the DL? I notice that he’s conspicuously absent from your list of lineup possibilities. I’d note that I’m not against this – yeah, he’s third on the team in homers, but he’s also barely hitting above the Mendoza Line, and he’s probably the least valuable of the team’s outfielders both short- and long-term.

I’d be surprised if anyone would trade for Everett, unless the Twins offer to pick up his salary. I’d actually be less surprised if they simply released him.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 14, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is the abundance of players a good or bad thing?

I think that they’ll try to send down a couple players just because you want that depth instead of running out of players. I want to see Everett gone, same with Lamb and Monroe.

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 14, 2008 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

roster movement ideas

I like Monroe. I like lamb too, he just hasn’t delivered this season.

The players to go are Everett, Bonser, then Lamb Monroe is the power bat off of the bench. He isn’t likely going anywhere this year. Maybe Gomez to AAA for a bit. and Tolbert to AAA till September.

Why is everyone so anti Bass. He is perfect for long relief. He pitches a lot of innings. You don’t have to care too much if he gets hurt so you can continue to pitch him 1-3 innings to save the rest of the pen. Bonser on the other hand gives up runs almost everytime out. I think he has more talent than Bass. It isn’t translating now and he would be better off somewhere else outside of a pennant race to figure it out.

Bring back Cuddyer keep Span, trade for a reliever, Beltre

by doofus on Jul 14, 2008 5:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it's just what Bass encompasses

Which is Gardenhire’s terrible managerial moves i.e. bringing him in while we’re down one. He’s suited for Boof’s role – mop-up – and he’s not giving pitcher’s like Breslow more of a chance.

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 15, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Problem

There is a problem with all the “Gomez is in a slump, let’s demote him” talk. Span has a good glove and a decent arm, but in his time in center field, there were multiple balls that dropped that Gomez would have gotten. I am not arguing that Gomez is a better hitter than Span. Gomez just has a greater range than Span. We all know that Gardy prefers defense over offense. Gomez isn’t going anywhere; he is the best “center” fielder on the roster. Taking Gomez out of the lineup in favor of Span, adds maybe 3 hits on average for the Twins, but would give the opposing team at least three more hits if they’re hitting.

by DarkWalker25 on Jul 15, 2008 1:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.280 is inexcusable

In the lead-off spot. He needs to work on batting, or be dropped down.

by CARXRiedmann on Jul 15, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez

I don’t think Gomez will value much from a stint in AAA. HE struggles with one pitch—the slider on/off the outside corner at/below the knees. Pitchers who can throw that pitch consistently in AAA get called up to the majors lickety split. So he wouldn’t be able to work on recognizing and laying off that pitch much at AAA.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 15, 2008 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And

- Not shortening his swing with 2 strikes
- Not shortening his swing when the pitcher throws harder than 95
- Pitch selection, understanding when he should probably highly consider taking what’s probably going to be not a good pitch to swing at
- Bunting pitch selection
- Laying down a good bunt by keeping his feet planted
- Not looking into the catcher when he’s stealing/running to first on a bunt

These are just some things that opposing announcers point out when Dick and Bert justify him with his ‘spirit’.

Cmath, I know you’ve had Gomez’s back since March, but you really don’t think he wouldn’t benefit from learning at least a little humility? There are so many flaws in his game that hamper his consistency and he gets no negative reinforcement.

by TMW on Jul 15, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

- Not shortening his swing, even if there are less than two strikes and the pitcher throws less than 95 mph
- Not Keeping his back foot planted (swinging or bunting)
- Not hitting the cutoff man
- Not recognizing good pitches for base stealing
- Not bunting into fair territory

Overall, the problem at the plate isn’t just that one pitch (the slider). His problem is recognizing the pitch on the way to the plate. He looks foolish with the slider, but he misses the fastball too, because he has no idea if it is about to fall off of the plate.

He is real raw, and most of these skills are skills usually developed in the minor leagues. He has to prove he can learn these things in the majors. Otherwise, he will use up his 4 years under team control before becoming a player as valuable as we hope he will be.

by snolls on Jul 15, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO, he has more than a problem with one pitch

He swings at way too many pitches out of the strikezone for a leadoff hitter.

He swings at way too many pitches he really can’t do anything with for a good hitter.

He’s incredibly impatient – doesn’t work the count, doesn’t draw walks.

There’s no “two strike” plan – it’s hack away every pitch.

Given the previous point, it shouldn’t be any surprise that there’s no plan in “situational” scenarios – runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs, we need CONTACT … do something to bring it about!!!

He’s not a consistent bunter (which ought to be a crime, given his tools).

He misses cutoffs & relays regularly.

With all this, he’s still an incredible talent – if he’s willing to work and learn, he could make himself one of the best leadoff hitters ever.

by BD57 on Jul 15, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but

All players have tons of stuff to work on, Gomez included. But he’s a major league player who can make himself an above league average center fielder if he makes one key adjustment. If there is one thing about his game that needs fixing, it’s recognizing and laying off the slider down and away. If he just fixed that, he would hit around .300/.330/.430. With his speed and defense, that’s plenty good.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 16, 2008 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

So the question is, do the twins gain more from having him learn in the majors, or having him learn in the minors.

My argument, however, is that the Twins would benefit from having him in the minors. I don’t know how his service time works out exactly, but I’m guessing it is too late to demote him this year, and delay his free agency. Still, if you put Span in CF, who is hitting FAR better than Gomez, our outfield + DH would be Span, Cuddyer (soon), Young and Kubel. This is much stronger trading any of them out for Gomez. Then, Gomez can work on pitch recognition, bunting and hitting the cutoff man at AAA. When he can tell the difference between a fastball and a slider, they can call him up. If this happens to be at the point next year where his free agency is delayed by a year, then we have not only fielded a better lineup, but we have also traded a year of below average Gomez, for a year of above average Gomez. That is my logic.

by snolls on Jul 16, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Darnell McDonald

Hits great at AAA, but he can’t hit the MLB slider. Just a case in point.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 16, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RE:

It’s a really tough sell that laying off the slider is the ONE key to his success. The guy needs to learn humility and needs to develop some understanding of the game. For instance, the outs he gives away because he bunts too much and he isn’t a good bunter.

I know he can be an elite talent like you can. But there is some seasoning that more cost effective that can take place in the minors.

by TMW on Jul 16, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Humility

If you want him to fix all those things, he’ll never make it. He’ll never be the humble and lovable player you want.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 16, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All I want

Is him to make an out less than 67% of the time and hit the cutoff man. I could care less about how humble he is, in fact I like that he’s cocky.

I agree that if the slider was his one fix, then keep him here and let him figure it out. But that premise just doesn’t stand true.

by TMW on Jul 16, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perception

Is him to make an out less than 67% of the time and hit the cutoff man

I think if he either laid off the slider on 3-2 counts or learned to hit it fair the other way, he would get on base about a third of the time, which is adequate.

As to hitting the cut-off man, I guess it’s perception, but I don’t see him making more of those mistakes than, say, Nick Punto or Delmon Young. A lot of the times when he throws the ball where the cut-off man is supposed to be, the guy is out of position. So that’s not just on him, it’s on Harris or Buscher or Lamb, or Punto or Everett.

I am bothered by his bunting. But other than that, I don’t think the other problems are to the point where you send him down. I’ve been arguing that he should be put in the nine hole to take some pressure off and minimize his negative impact. I would start there, and if he doesn’t improve, you might need to do something.

But it will never come to that. I think he’ll improve. You’re never as good as you look when you’re hot and you’re never as bad as you look when you’re cold. Nobody called for him to be sent down when he was hot. He’s in a cold spell that he will snap out of, perhaps after taking some time off to clear his head.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 16, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

I agree with you that he needs to learn those things. I just think that if he learns those at the minor league level, we don’t waste his cheap years on the years when he is still learning. I’d prefer he learned at the minor league level, even if he is good enough to play in the majors, so that when we do start using up his cheap years, he is a star. I’d hate for him to put up five mediocre (read as average) years for us, and then go the Yankees once he establishes himself. I’d rather he spend a year or two in the minors and become a top 5 or 10 centerfielder while we have control of his contracts.

Basically, learning at the MLB level is economically ineffecient.

by snolls on Jul 16, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Cold Spell"

You’re never as good as you look when you’re hot and you’re never as bad as you look when you’re cold. Nobody called for him to be sent down when he was hot. He’s in a cold spell that he will snap out of, perhaps after taking some time off to clear his head.

April: .265/.279/.373
May: .299/.348/.449
June: .236/.266/.309
July: .170/.220/.191

My worry isn’t so much that Gomez is in a cold spell (I’d agree that he is); my worry is that May was just a hot spell, and June and April are his regular not-especially-hot-or-cold results.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 16, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez Splits with a 3-2 count

“I think if he either laid off the slider on 3-2 counts or learned to hit it fair the other way, he would get on base about a third of the time, which is adequate.”

3-2 Count
29 PA
7 BB
9 SO
.379 OBP

Forget hitting the slider, just give him a take sign with a full count.

by TMW on Jul 16, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

jumping at the breaking ball

I don’t know that you can define the issue that tightly.

IMO, laying off a particular pitch is first & foremost a matter of pitch recognition and discipline – - – there’s no reason a player can’t learn to recognize & lay off the majority of pitches located in “no hit” spots.

The hitter who jumps at the breaking ball out of the zone low and away is (more likely than not) going to be swing at a lot of balls out of the zone.

by BD57 on Jul 16, 2008 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez's confidence

The one part of the whole situation I just don’t understand is the idea that Gomez must be kept in the lead-off spot to protect his confidence. His problem isn’t lack of confidence; if anything it’s overconfidence. He firmly believes he can hit every pitch thrown. Perhaps if he was less confident he could hit everything he wouldn’t swing at everything. He is among the league’s worst at balls swung at and has the league’s worst strikeout to walk ratio. He needs to learn that there are certain pitches he should not be confident about being able to hit

by by jiminy on Jul 17, 2008 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs