Waiting For Liriano

by Jesse on Jul 3, 2008 8:24 AM EDT in News Comment 15 comments

He'll be back. But when?

There's no reason to rush anything. With the starting rotation being generally impressive over the last three weeks, any sense of urgency the Twins might have felt early in June has likely been dulled. Livan Hernandez, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins have largely exceeded expectations on the whole, and with that luxury the organization is able to see Liriano's ups and downs in Rochester as simply part of a process...instead of worrying about how those ups and downs would translate to a performance with the Twins.

Nobody doubts how insanely not ready Liriano was at the start of the season, at least for the majors, and whether you believe that his three-game, 10-inning stint was good for him or not, there's one thing that's certain: he's been able to benefit from his time in triple-A. After a rough start in Rochester, where in four starts he logged 19.1 innings, allowed 17 hits, 10 earned runs and posted a 14:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio, he's vastly improved. In fact, before getting roughed up in consecutive outings in late June, Liriano strung together six quality starts in seven appearances. Now, coming off what could have been his best start for the Red Wings this season, it's easy to hope that he's back on track.

Liriano's Last 10 Starts

Date	IP	H	ER	BB	K
May 15	8.0	7	3	1	4
May 20	7.0	8	2	1	3
May 26	6.2	7	6	1	4
May 31	6.1	3	1	1	7
June 5	6.0	4	3	4	7
June 10	6.0	6	1	1	7
June 15	7.1	5	2	0	5
June 20	5.0	9	5	1	7
June 25	5.0	9	5	1	3
June 30	7.0	4	0	1	9

While the strikeouts aren't always what we remember them to be, it certainly appears that his control is coming back strong. There aren't pitch totals, and I'm unfamiliar with how often Liriano was working into deep counts, but he's certainly stingy with the walks. That's a good sign. Additionally, he hasn't been knocked out before the fifth inning, and he's completed six innings eight out of ten times.

There are positive signs. His 3.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.67 BB/9 and 7.93 K/9 over that 10-game stretch all hint at a very effective pitcher. He's had decent stamina, no serious problems with his arm, and he's apparently working very hard at keeping himself focused in order to earn his promotion back to the Twins as soon as possible.

Unfortunately for him, and for some of us who are waiting for him, his return still isn't imminent. None of the four young starters are performing so as to encourage a premature recall, and we all know how the Twins rely on veterans to provide stability and reliability if not leadership. That role has been backed up again recently, as Hernandez has thrown 21 innings in his last three starts and allowed just six runs. When you have strong support like Minnesota's had from their starters, it's easier to be patient.

Finally, with the Twins in contention it's unlikely that Livan gets traded. It's been a fairly strong consensus that if Francisco were to return, it would be Hernandez's slot he's be taking over. As much as we might like to see it happen, we know the history of this franchise and how unlikely that makes any deal involving a pitcher considering the team's success.

With five starting spots filled admirably, and with none of the roles in jeopardy in the immediate future barring an injury, this all means that Francisco Liriano is likely staying put. At least for now.

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Livan

When it becomes clear that Liriano is more effective than Livan, he will get the call and Livan will get traded. It will take a lot to make that clear. You can’t simply compare performances in AAA with performances in the majors. Major league pitching is an order of magnitude more difficult than AAA pitching. So Liriano needs to sustain an order of magnitude better pitching for four or five starts to force this kind of move. And, of course, Livan has something to say about that. If Livan can return to his April form, Liriano might stay down there at least until September regardless of how he pitches.

I think the most likely scenario is that Livan struggles against better competition in his next three starts and Liriano continues to shine as he did in his last start. If so, I look for Livan to be traded before Aug 1 and Liriano to take his spot in the rotation.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 3, 2008 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not opposed

to Liriano spending the rest of the year at Rochester.

Three of the 10 starts bear a resemblance to Liriano v. 2006 lines.

I want to see that percentage go up & hear about his fastball climbing a few MPH before we talk about bringing him up.

by BD57 on Jul 3, 2008 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he'll ever be the 2006 version

But even if his stuff is similar to Perkins’, he’s still better than Livan if he can show this kind of control at the majors.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 3, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I'm hoping for

is a return to dominance.

IMO, “swagger” was part of what made Liriano so devastating in 2006 – everyone (Liriano included) knew his slider was basically unhittable and that he could throw it for a strike any time he wanted to.

The story this year (at least, to date) is that the slider isn’t available anymore – even if he can throw it as well as he used to, he’s not supposed to use it like he used to. Meaning he has to develop a new approach to getting hitters out because he can’t use the game plan that made him dominant in 2006.

There are obviously signs of progress in his pitching lines. My hope is continuing to start in Rochester will accelerate development of the Liriano v. 2008 game plan & the “swagger” will be back.

by BD57 on Jul 3, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Goodbye Livan Countdown?

If Livan gets hammered again—the pressure will be on to bring back Liriano. In my heart, I hope he doesn’t, but my head says he’s throwing batting practice out there most nights. He’s been doing the same thing for the past three years.

Cheers and Win Twins!

by funoka on Jul 3, 2008 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Winning

Winning will have a lot to do with it. If the twins are winning, they will have a lot of pressure not to look like they are selling the season. When they traded Castillo it was seriously frowned upon, whether was a good trade or not.

If the Twins are in the race (or at least a stones throw), and Livan is still over .500 (10-8 or so), it will look bad to the public. Hopefully some of that will be offset by the excitement about Liriano, but I wouldn’t count on it.

The question, to me, is whether we can get something for Bonser, or turn him into a reliable relief pitcher.

by snolls on Jul 3, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Livan pitches well and we win...

...then I think it’s a tough sell to trade him. But if he continues to give up two hits an inning while striking out three batters a game, his luck will not hold. The next three starts will determine a lot. Tonight he faces Cleveland, which is always dangerous regardless of its record, as evidenced by the 12-hit, seven-run drubbing they gave him the first time he faced them. Tuesday, he’ll face the Red Sox for the second time. And then next Sunday, he’ll face Los Tigres for the second time. If he emerges from those three games with quality starts, Liriano won’t come up until September regardless of how he pitches. But I would not bet on that happening.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 3, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

The casual fan looks at W-L a lot, and right or wrong, I think there’s still an image of him as the “ace” of the staff (even though most of us would likely put him at #5). If he’s still as “effective” as he has been, they might need a major leaguer in exchange rather than trading him for prospects.

It does help, from a PR standpoint, that Livan’s replacement would be Liriano, who’s at least something of a known quantity.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 3, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other things to consider

—While Livan hasn’t exactly been consistent he is still holding the “innings eater” title. At his current pace he is still inline to eclipse 200 innings and also lead the staff in innings, with Blackburn the only one capable of challenging him for that title.

—As far as arms go, Blackburn pitched over 200 innings all said and done last year so he’s good to go to finish off 2008. Also Baker and Slowey have had to deal with injury issues so their arms are still relatively fresh. Perkins on the other hand, may have trouble finishing off the year in the rotation. He was hurt most of last year so he didn’t get his work in, and he hasn’t exactly logged a ton of innings in his minor league seasons either: 2005 he logged 134, 2006 he logged 127 1/3. So far he’s pitched 98 innings between Rochester and Minnesota so it’s hard to say how long his arm will hold. Same of course could be said of Liriano who we’d be hard pressed to push much over 150 innings (now at about 100).

—One wild card we haven’t really talk about a ton this year is Brian Duensing. While his 4.25 ERA and 4-8 record doesn’t exactly scream out at you, his control has been on (22 walks in 106 innings, making for a tidy 1.19 WHIP) and he isn’t exactly getting pounded either (.254 AVG against, better than all the Twins starters except Slowey). I think his ERA and record thus far have more to do with bad luck, inconsistent fielding and poor timing on big HR’s more than anything. If Hernandez were to be unloaded and Liriano were to have to shut it down after being called up (or Perkins for that matter), I think it would be a good thing for the organization to take a look at Duensing. If nothing else it would give him some Major League experience for his trade resume.

Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?

by caseintheface on Jul 3, 2008 5:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He'll be back and he will be effective

One scenario in this guessing game is Hernandez stays, because he can be Liriano’s pal and tutor, being ‘cisco’s last confidant is now with the Mets. Boof gets traded, Liriano plays the same role out of the bullpen that Santana had when he was 24.

by Johnny Safron on Jul 3, 2008 7:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cisco in the pen

Regardless of what Gardy says, the total innings may come into play with Cisco. If we are planning on him entering the rotation after the ASB (put aside for now the guy he’d be replacing), then we’ve got to be prepared for him to pitch close to 200 innings this year (at nearly 100 right now). I guess that’s a bit higher than the ceiling the Twins have in mind.

IMO, the most sensible option for all involved would be to bring Cisco up after the ASB (hopefully after two more solid AAA outings) and pitch him out of the pen for the rest of July until (a) we trade Livan or (b) a starter goes down with injury. I could see a lot of dominance pitching 1-2 innings at a time for a little while.

by Adam Peterson on Jul 4, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen

Gardy already said they wouldnt use him out of the bullpen. If he’s coming up he’s gonna be a starter.

by .mnqwerd on Jul 3, 2008 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's what I read,

and also why I didn’t mention the bullpen option.

All the same, Safron’s scenerio could still play out, it’s realistic. The organization could always change its mind.

by Jesse on Jul 3, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gardy also said --

—among other things, that Cuddyer would play center in spring training, and that Mike Lamb was his third baseman. Cuddyer never played center in spring training, and since around the second game of the Milwaukee series in mid-June, Lamb might as well be in the Witness Protection Program.

by Johnny Safron on Jul 3, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who knows

True anything could happen, especially if we are contending and in need of a possible dominating bullpen arm. It just seemed to me that they were worried about the strain on Liriano’s arm by moving him to the bullpen after being a starter, and then moving back to starter, if thats what they decided to do.

by .mnqwerd on Jul 4, 2008 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs