Twins Free Agent Signings--A Review
You know, the Twins organization is marked by it's continuity. The names remain the same; promotions come from within. Bill Smith replaces Ryan, Radcliff and Rantz are long-timers, etc.
The Twins as an organization do some things very well. Their drafting and development is good--see Mauer and Morneau; see 4/5ths of the starting rotation--all drafted by the Twins. That's very, very solid. Obviously, they make mistakes like every team, but their ability to generate talent is impressive.
They scout other organizations--particularly their minor leagues, very well. See Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, Lew Ford, Jason Bartlett, Alexi Casilla, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, Matt Guerrier, etc.

What they haven't done well, however, is sign major league free agents. Part of this is obviously budgetary: the Twins don't go out and sign Carlos Beltran. However, they have shopped in the bargain bin to solve problems, and it's justified to call them out for their failure to succeed. Below is a review of the free agent signings over the past five years. It isn't a pretty picture:
2004
Jose Offerman-- 96 OPS+ in 202 PA
Henry Blanco 60 OPS+ in 353 PA, though he did throw well
Terry Mulholland (Not technically an FA signing--they bought him from the Mariners in the spring of 2004): 2 seasons of mediocre, low-level pitching--most memorable for his star turn in Batgirl's opera.
Aaron Fultz 50 innings, 94 OPS+ as a poor LOOGY
2005
Juan Castro: a thoroughly execrable year and a half of play, both hurting the team's chances to win and inexplicably holding Jason Bartlett back.
Mike Redmond: Ah, a truly useful player; one of the better backup catchers in the majors over the past few seasons.
Jason Tyner: 3 mostly useless seasons as a part-timer who couldn't really hit or field.
2006
Rondell White: Two disaster seasons marred by injury and an inability to hit.
Tony Batista: Horrible in part of a season. Completely predictable, and arguably the worst, most craven move Terry Ryan made in his tenure--everyone knew that 3rd base was a problem if they were moving Cuddyer, and this was a pathetic attempt to solve it.
Ruben Sierra: transient, injured, half-season that showed he was toast.
Dennys Reyes: a reasonably useful LOOGY--had a great year in 2006, mediocre since--innings so limited that results are almost random given the sample sizes.
2007
Jeff Cirillo: terrible hitter over 174 PAs before he was jettisoned. Another vague attempt to partially solve 3B that failed.
Ramon Ortiz: Lousy pitching (84 OPS+) in half a season, but did get turned into Matt Macri!
Sidney Ponson: Disaster.
2008
Mike Lamb--Yet another attempt to fix 3B. 2 year deal, he's already buried on the bench after half a season. Hasn't hit, doesn't really field well, lost his job primarily to a minor league veteran.
Adam Everett: Injured, useless. Attempt to replace, at least temporarily, their traded shortstop, was on the verge of being cut until the Casilla injury. Simply can't hit enough to play.
Livan Hernandez: Apparently on the verge of being cut after 2/3rds of a season; ate a lot of innings, but belched up a lot of runs. Poor results, only marginally better than the Ortiz signing.
NOTE: Craig Monroe wasn't technically a free agent--though he was in spirit. Also terrible.
That, friends, is not a good record. It suggests a couple of things to me, and I wonder if you agree or have other ideas. First, this method of trying to find lightening in a bottle with inexpensive veterans isn't working. (AND THIRD BASE IS STILL A GAPING WOUND. Sorry, needed to get that out of the system).
The problem is that they make these signings, and then don't pursue other solutions, thus costing them, not in dollars but in opportunities and in talent. Wasting 2 months on someone who can't play, then being left with the options you didn't think were good enough in the first place.
Thus, they should stop it. Stop trying to grab these types of players to be any more than backups. Either open up the wallet to chase after a higher quality of free agent, or solve your problems another way. Spend some talent, if not money. Trade for Kouzmanoff, don't sign Lamb. This is essentially what they did to fill left field--traded talent to get Delmon Young. Young has yet to be great, but it's been a hell of a lot better than Rondell White. It's my opinion they are much better off making those sorts of deals than signing guys with forks in their backs and hoping.
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right about everything
this was supposed to be a bit of a rebuilding year. Why not let the young guys take their licks now so they’ll be that much better next year? We never start winning until we finally lose the veterans and go with guys like Bartlett, Casilla, etc… either because someone gets hurt or because the veterans suck so bad that we can’t bear to trot them out anymore. Organizations like the Twins get really stuck in these sort of patterns. They don’t bring a lot of fresh minds into the organization, and the group thinkers can’t see that they are making the same mistakes each year.
so twins, if you’re reading, i’d be happy to take a job in your front office. any job. i will drop out of grad school.
http://noblingblings.blogspot.com/
by Aaron Fix on Aug 2, 2008 10:52 AM EDT 0 recs
Ponson
had another very good start for the Yankees last night. Odd.
Also odd: Hunter got the big hit off the Sandman to win it for the Angels. That also never happened when he was a Twin.
by wcooley on Aug 2, 2008 11:35 AM EDT 0 recs
when
when the Twins were in New York a few weeks back and Ponson was start, Gardy on his pre game radio interview said that Ponson, when with the Twins did not have a healthy arm. He had some surgury in the offseason before and really was not fully recovered from that.
Gardy suggested that Ponson is succeeding this year becuase he arm is fully healthy, which mean his sinker is really good (again, his words not mine)
by DedicatedFollowerOfFashion on
Aug 2, 2008 1:37 PM EDT
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What 2008 team are you folks watching?
While I realize statistically Wins and Losses are irrelevant, AND I do not remember a descrete post where everyone predicted the Twins record for this year, I doubt there were more than 10% here, who would have had the Twins with 60 wins as of July 31.
AND, if the Twins finish the season at the pathetic win percentage the Nationals have posted so far, they would have 79/80 wins. I doubt very many realistically expected much more than that in February.
I seem to remember the majority here saw Span as a bum, Just like a year+ earlier Baker should be gone for a bag of rocks.
IMHO, the Livan signing did Exactly what it was supposed to do, and even if you don’t like how he got there, he added to the irrelevant win total.
Everett has been injured, and has been for several years so maybe not a good choice in retrospect. Lamb is no longer producing as he had in the past, and IMHO, probably the 2nd year of the contract is the only serious error the Front Office made.
Some of the young pups have stepped up earlier than expected, yet the criticized moves seem to have been made to bridge to when the young pups were ready to contribute. Seems the Front Office’s crystal ball might be just as hazy, as that of posters here.
Does the Front Office do things perfectly? Absolutely Not! Does Gardy manage perfectly? Absolutely not! Do Twinkies Town posters predict things perfectly? Absolutely! , not.
The Twins are the youngest team in baseball. They are 1/2 game out of the Division Lead (a division that in February they were predicted to be 3rd-5th on paper) and 1/2 game out of the Wild Card race beginning August 2nd.
At what point since Bill Smith took over was that a possibility, Even with those like myself with very fertile imaginations?
Enjoy the games, they’re played by humans,, NOT on paper or by computers.
As a local sports talk host (with a couple of Super Bowl rings) said recently. “If you want a PERFECT player, manager/coach or Front Office…Go buy a video game”
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on Aug 2, 2008 1:12 PM EDT 0 recs
I think it's a good point
That most people on this board were down on the Twins at the beginning of the season. Someone (maybe you) should write a diary condemning the prognostication efforts of this blog. But Eric in Madison’s post wasn’t about how wrong everyone was. It wasn’t even about how terrible the Twins front office is. It was about one specific shortcoming in the Twins’ front office—namely their hideous track record of bringing in washed up free agent veterans on the cheap.
Now, if you look at the time period that Eric in Madison cited, 2004 – 08, it’s clearly a fact that Twins have been pretty darn good in that span. A lot of that-as Eric even points out-is due to things that the Twins organization does very well. But that doesn’t mean they’ve succeeded in everything. In fact, the fact that they’ve been so successful probably makes it harder for the Twins organization to see their mistakes as mistakes. That doesn’t mean they can’t or shouldn’t be able to improve on an area of obvious weakness.
To use a playing analogy, just because Nick Punto is a good defensive shortstop doesn’t excuse his reckless and pointless headlong slides into first base. I think we can still criticize his head first slides. But it seems like the logical conclusion of your attitude is that Nick Punto is a good defensive shortstop and we’re just second guessing him and his defensive abilities if we say hey, man, it’s wrong in any and all situations to slide head first into first base. The same with the Twins organization. Hey, we’re all here because we’re fans. And hey, kudos to them for putting together a pretty sweet team that few of us expected would be this good. But, I’ll be damned if anyone tells me they got where they did in ‘06 because of Juan Castro, not in spite of him.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on
Aug 2, 2008 5:27 PM EDT
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Good post
There is generally a lot of negativity in the Twins blogosphere, led by some of the “everyone is stupid” critics and the knee-jerk “fire Gardy” commenters. But Eric in Madison is just pointing out a weak spot in the organization. But what I would like to see is a comparison to other teams that pick up scrap-heap veteran free agents. I doubt their success rate is very high either. For instance, the Pirates with their penchant for Twins cast-offs such as Meares, Dougie M, and Rivas.
It is easier to get better players when you are allowed to spend more. Are other teams finding “diamonds in the rough” at a higher clip than the Twins?
by wcooley on
Aug 3, 2008 9:23 AM EDT
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Well, this is a good point
I’m not sure I have the wherewithal to figure that out—whether other teams have done better with this sort of player. One of my points is that teams shouldn’t be spending money and roster spots on guys like this as much as they do.
One team I’ve noticed that has had some success with this type of player over the past few years is the Mets, though of course they’ve had their failures as well. But they’ve gotten good work at different times over the past 3 seasons from Jose Valentin, Damien Easley, Fernando Tatis, Marlon Anderson, Ruben Gotay, Darren Oliver, and probably some others.
by Eric in Madison on
Aug 3, 2008 10:28 AM EDT
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Marginal Benefits...
Natetheskate & wcooley,
Good points.
First, let me put my self perceived bias on the table (I used to do this with my tax clients, so they could evaluate my advice from that percpective). I AM NOT a stat geek, as many on the blogs seem to be, stats IMHO, are a crude summation of what has been, NOT what will be.
Second, CONTEXT. I would presume that signings from 2004 thru 2007 may have had a strong element of budgetary concerns. IF reports are accurate, that IS NOT the case in 2008.
Third, Eric used stats primarily to evaluate the signings. Eample: Now that I have criticized stats, let me use some stats to disagree (nothing says I MUST be consistent, eh?).
Livan vs. Santana…I would submit that Santana is a much better pitcher at this point than Livan, YET, For ALL of Livan’s supposed failings the Twins won at a better rate when he started games (.608) vs. the Mets when Santana starts (.522). Can someone give me a statistical construct as to HOW this can be? IF the Twins won at that (.608) rate in ALL their games they would have 6 more wins. The Mets are wining at roughly Santana’s rate 58 vs. Santana’s rate 57.4 (an artifact of rounding). Does this mean that Livan is a better pitcher than Johan? I sincerely doubt it. In fact, If you take this stat for ALL Twins starters this year, ONLY Bonser (.416)and Liriano (.000) have a worse win % by the Twins, in their starts, than Santana has with the Mets…Baker (.647), Perkins (.625), Blackburn (.545) and Slowey (.529). Baseball is a team game, although, at least in theory, the starting pitcher has a greater impact on the outcome of the game.
So I went to the Met’s bullpen, and blowing saves (this is not quite an accurate description as I counted any game where the pitcher left the game ahead or tied). HERE, Santana has a real gripe. The Met’s blew 4 saves. So let’s adjust the team win because those losses cannot be attributed to the starting pitcher. NOW, Santana’s % grows to (.696), Livan only had 1 ND where the Twins took a loss, and the game was not tied when he left the game. Interesting though, Baker, Perkins and Blackburn each had 3 games where there were “blown saves”, reworking their win % we get Baker (.823), Blackburn (.681) and Perkins (.812). I sincerely doubt that Baker and Perkins are supperior pitchers to Santana, or that Blackburn is ONLY marginally inferior.
I am sorry for these stats as they are useless. Other than to say that Livan did EXACTLY what he was brought in to do.
As to the argument that the Twins do this poorly, maybe/probably. YET, what percentage of the Teams overall performance can be attributed to this one element? Is there any proof that in improving this piece of the puzzle overall performance will ACTUALLY be improved? Might other elements diminish?
I am sorry if I am a scold, yet I have followed the Senators/Twins franchise for longer than most. I would submit that the performance since 2001 is the longest (or 2nd longest) sustained period of good performances in the franchise history, going back to 1901. There is a good/reasonable argument for the period from 1962 through 1970 as well.
My apologies to Eric, as I generally agree with his posts.
The solution for me is to just watch the games and enjoy. Games are lost that should have been won, games are won that should have been lost. That is baseball.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on
Aug 3, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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Everett
I still like the signing. Cant really blame the twins for his injury. If not for the injury he plays spectacular D and makes up for not being able to hit. Our former shortstop apparently can’t hit either.
Reyes has been a pretty good lefty reliever, I find it hard to really complain.
When did Guerrier sign? He turned out pretty well.
The majority of these moves werent so hot, though it was more of a Terry Ryan thing.
by guinness junky on Aug 2, 2008 4:36 PM EDT 0 recs
Livan..
..was actually a good signing in my opinion. He helped us win a lot of game early, it’s just that the league figured him out. Plus, I think he really helped get these young pitchers going.
by Twins Territory on Aug 2, 2008 7:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Ex-ante vs ex post
I agree with Dragon. The signings look bad on paper (stats), but I think they were (overall) the right moves.
Hernandez did exactly what he was asked to do. He ate innings, and gave us a fair shot to win. If he hadn’t been on the team, we would have had to keep Liriano on the team (which would have been a disaster), keep Bonser in the rotation, or go Bass/Duensing/etc. I think we all wish that Hernandez had been cut 3 weeks ago, but I think the team was just trying to see if they could get any return for him. i have trouble complaining about that.
Everett was a smart signing, but he got injured. At the time, the team needed another middle infielder. Casilla had a pretty bad year last year, and hand’t yet proven he would improve. Harris and Punto each clearly have their faults, and the team had no other obvious options. And, Everett was cheap, and for one year.
Lamb looked like a smart decision at the time. He had a good track record at the plate, and 3B was our biggest hole. Clearly he has been a disappointment, but he was a good option at the time.
Monroe I can’t defend. They could have let him go for free.
by snolls on Aug 3, 2008 5:51 PM EDT 0 recs
Context...
snolls,
You said what I intended, only more concisely and better.
I often think that ML front offices, sometimes are as in the dark as much us fans. I think they are much better at assessing the potential of players, yet I think they have to wait and see if/when it will materialize at the ML level, JUST like us fans.
The FO also has to attempt to prepare for 2 opposite outcomes. In house options WILL be ready and In house options WILL NOT be ready.
I think by the length of the signings, one can infer that the middle infield situation was expected to become much clearer by the end of this season. I think they were/are far less confident about 3B thus Lamb’s 2 year deal. The Livan deal had several different aspects at work. The 4/5 other expected/available starters, with the exception of Baker had either 0 or less than 1/2 year ML experience, with both Liriano & Perkins coming off injuries where they had not pitched in 2007 (Liriano) or minimally (Perkins).
I think the biggest problem evaluating Livan is that like the “girl with a curl” when he was good he was very good…when he was bad he was very bad. I saw posted about 2 weeks ago, that in Livans wins he had an ERA of 3ish, in his losses he had an ERA of 10/11 and in his ND an ERA of 5ish. Talk of schitzophrenia. Without going back and watching each loss it would be interesting to see if/how his ERA was effected by being left in games (lost causes to save the bullpen), any of the other starters would have been pulled. 2 starts ago in Cleveland (I believe) he gave up 5 runs in the 1st 2 innings, righted the ship and pitched a complete game. Would any of the young pups have been allowed or expected to do the same?
It would be interesing if we actually got the straight scoop on WHY the FO made all the signings Eric references. Then it might be easier to make a judgement as to the validity of their decisions.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
by the Dragon on
Aug 3, 2008 7:54 PM EDT
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yeah
we are clearly like-minded on this issue. The team has done an EXCELLENT job of avoiding the types of contracts that hamstring the team (like the T-wolves are so fond of). They aren’t paying Silva $50 million, or Griffey Jr $100 million.
Since the team was clearly not in the market for a star player, they had to look at players that would accept 1-2 year contracts. In total, for Livan, Monroe, Everett, and Lamb, they spent a little over $15 million this year, and $3 million next year. This filled four holes in their lineup, gave them a lot of options where younger players might not pan out, and left them with flexibility for next year. They can afford the $20 million, because they are so good at filling out their teams with talented $500k players.
While these players didn’t pan out, it is hard to see how any (other than Monroe, WTF!) were a mistake at the time the decision was made. I’ll take this over the moves of the seattles, mets, yankees, dodgers, angels, etc. The only reason those teams would be so much more competitive if they focused on a couple of key signings, and filled in their rosters with 2 year contracts, instead of 5 year contracts. They are fortunate to have enough money to afford those mistakes, but remember that their decisions have a positive feedback loop. Because they have a lot of large contracts filling out different positions each year, they only have one or two positions where they can make an upgrade without cutting a very expensive player. This causes them to continue to overspend, because they are only signing one or two players per year, and they need to pay big dollars to find one player that can have a significant impact.
This is how Theo Epstein has been really smart. The red sox have a lot of big contracts, but over the last few years they have avoided the monster contracts that reduce flexibility. By signing short/medium term extentions, and utilizing younger players, they have been able to keep high level players, while cutting salary. I think they are looking at losing near $50 million of payroll at the end of the year. That will give them a big advantage over the yankees, dodgers, angels, etc in the future.
by snolls on
Aug 4, 2008 2:39 PM EDT
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Overstated generalizations
Although I think strongly-worded, subjective remarks such as “Terry Mulholland (Not technically an FA signing-they bought him from the Mariners in the spring of 2004): 2 seasons of mediocre, low-level pitching-most memorable for his star turn in Batgirl’s opera,” are easy to dismantle, let’s look at the broader picture:
The kids did better than expected.
No one expected this team to win more than 70-some games. There was many, many question marks, and signing one good free agent for $10 million wasn’t going to plug all the seeming holes, nor is there a guarantee that this one man would stay healthy. This team was supposed to be waiting all year for the kids, and the kids kept arriving early and producing.
While the Twins and many teams have picked up players from the scrapheap (Mike Pagliarulo wasn’t such a bad move, and the Twins have had other successes – I would count Mullholland among them when you did deeper and examine specifics), I don’t think it’s been as bad as stated in the original post, and I am convinced that the results such as a team-leading 10 wins from Livan Hernandez was a good move.
I do hope this organization can find itself in a position to shy away from some of these signings, but you never know when you will catch a Mike Lowell or a David Ortiz in a in a bottle, and again we have to consider April, when most everyone was hoping Mauer and Morneau and Cuddyer could stay healthy and get this team 73 wins. The minor leagues came through in spades for this team, and of course Kansas City, Cleveland and Detroit have helped out by being worse than anyone thought. Some even figured KC might finish ahead of Minnesota.
In sum, the Twins’ brass figured they would have to gut out a tough season with a young team that wouldn’t produce. We all got a pleasant surprise instead.
by Sev on Aug 4, 2008 2:12 AM EDT 0 recs
Luis Castillo
One team I’ve noticed that has had some success with this type of player over the past few years is the Mets, though of course they’ve had their failures as well.
Luis Castillo, although he was a trade, to name one. People in Minnesota hated the trade, but Luis was a shaky dude healthwise last season, and he’s made Damien Easley a star this year by becoming moreso.
Your comment about “had their failures as well” is appropriate, for all teams. If you examine other teams, you will find failed personnel strategies. We are aware of the Twins’ failures because we follow them more closely. Baseball talent is a crapshoot. Mike Lamb COULD have worked out. And he’s not worthless. He’s a big-league player who has contributed in the past (contributed means helping win a game here and there, which is what we expect of most big-leaguers; it does not mean making the All-Star team), and he probably will again. Maybe not here, but somewhere.
by Sev on Aug 4, 2008 2:24 AM EDT 0 recs
I have
I have to say, I think you were a bit too mean about Terry Ryan’s moves for bullpen guys. Denny Reyes has turned into a GREAT lefty specialist for us. Terry Molhlland was old ad mediocre, but the perfect long guy (and he wasn’t a free agent, we acquired him from the Indians for $1). We also had success with guys like Tony Fiore and Mike Jackson. Finding quality middle relievers to fill the space behind our top flight set-up men and closer was a big part of our great bullpens that were the strongest part of our division winning teams.
And Jose Offerman was a useful bench bat. He had a big platoon split and was actually a useful pinch hitter.
But that’s the thing, the bullpen, and maybe a bench bat, are the places where you can find quality in the scrap heap. it doesn’t take much to be a pinch hit success. You can find gems in the dredges who can pitch well for you in relief, and we have. The problem comes when you think you’ll be able to get starters on the cheap. Big pieces have to be paid for in money or development. You can’t just pull em’ out of the scrap heap. That’s the remaining BIG flaw in the Twins Free Agent logic.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Aug 4, 2008 2:48 AM EDT 0 recs
Thanks for the comments; some reponses
1. I chose to look at 5 years just because it’s a natural cut off point, but I admit that as a result, I missed one of their most successful signings, Kenny Rogers in 2003.
2. For those that complain that I’ve been too harsh. Well, what can I say? Not all of these guys were disasters—Mulholland more or less did his job. Offerman was…OK. I wanted to be comprehensive, not just point out the failures.
3. For those who defend some of the signings I criticized: Adam Everett. He was already hurt; had the injury come out of nowhere, I’d be more inclined to give them a pass. Mike Lamb: OK, well, I wouldn’t have thought he would have been as bad as he has been, but their approach to solving 3rd base has made me slowly go insane over the past 3 years.
Look, I stand by what I wrote. I don’t think that the Twins have done well in signing major league free agents. I agree with Adam on First that they have occasionally gotten OK work from guys they brought in for low leverage roles. But they have no breakout performers, and the guys they signed for more significant roles have not done well.
Ultimately, I don’ t like the way they approach free agency. I think it’s an approach that leads to poor results.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 4, 2008 12:01 PM EDT 0 recs
Everett
He missed time to a broken leg last year, but his problem this year has been shoulder/arm injury. I don’t remember hearing anything about him having that same injury last year.
by Hoya on
Aug 4, 2008 5:21 PM EDT
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