Who goes when Cassilla's back?

by JD34 on Aug 16, 2008 4:50 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

Originally everyone would have thought that Adam Everett would be the odd man out but he has started 9 games this month and hit .348 for August. I don't see anyone from the bullpen going down with the recent struggles so it seems to indicate that it would either be Ruiz or Harris.

Ruiz has only played a limited role since he has come up but has hit well with only a few opportunities. Harris seems to be in Gardy's dog-house and only sees spot starts at 3B when I left-hander is on the mound. I'm not sure if Harris still has any minor league options but I am guessing it will be Ruiz that goes.

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Sure leaves us with a punchless bench

Punto, Harris, Lamb, Redmond

Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?

by caseintheface on Aug 16, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bench

The bench sure would take a hit but Ruiz should be back in less than two weeks once rosters expand. I think he could still be eligible for the post-season also because we can essentially give Cuddyer a spot and have anyone replace him should he not be back yet. I also can’t see the Twins taking Bass and Bonser into the playoffs if they make it.

by JD34 on Aug 16, 2008 5:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I say Morneau

What has he done lately?

by wcooley on Aug 16, 2008 7:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope your Being Sarcastic..........

by Tony_O on Aug 16, 2008 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ruiz, of course

Talk about punchless. Not a single extra base hit, despite an extra-base hit swing. No walks. Can’t play in the field. Free Randy Ruiz? Hell, incarcerate him.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 16, 2008 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you're being sarcastic

But I’ll chime in anyway: Ruiz only has 14 MLB plate appearances, so we can’t possibly say any more about his power or on-base abilities than what is gleaned from his Minor League Translations: .307 OBP, .455 SLG. That’s not good, but you don’t have to be good to be a bench player for the Twins right now.

by PhoenixV on Aug 17, 2008 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a good bench? Really?

The Twins are leading their division. There are only 7 other teams in MLB with better records. I would think a stats lover like you wouldn’t overlook that.

Those numbers say that the Twins’ bench is good enough to make them one of the top 8 teams in baseball, and good enough that only three other teams are a significant number of games better. I suppose with a better bench the Twins might have more wins, but with a better bench the Angels might have more wins.

Not that we would want to use numbers or anything to prove the point, but: The Twins substitutes have a .789 .OPS this season, and the starters have a .744 OPS. Pinch hitters have an .835 OPS. Pinch htters for the DH have a1.000 OPS, which is about 250 points above the DH.

If the bench is as weak as you suggest, Gardenhire is the best manager in baseball history.

One thing you don’t want on your bench in a day when teams carry two SUVs full of pitchers is a singles-hitting DH.

Just as with the Washburn argument, this is largely a moot point. Washburn ain’t coming over, and if they demote Ruiz it will be for about a week. Given that he sat on the bench for nearly that long while on the roster earlier this month, I doubt that will be a problem.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 17, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please

Let’s not get into a fight here. You know perfectly well that it’s a logical fallacy to deduce that the Twins’ bench is the 8th best in baseball just because the team happens to have the 8th best record in MLB (especially when that record is so much better than their Pythagorean ditto).

I will not comment on numbers stemming from small sample sizes like pinch hitting stats.

The Twins’ bench (arguably) consists of these players: Punto/Everett, Harris, Lamb, Redmond. Lamb is an okay offensive player, and Redmond is good enough as a backup catcher, but Punto, Everett and Lamb are sucktastic.

Ruiz is not a singles hitter just because he only hit singles through his first 14 MLB at bats.

by PhoenixV on Aug 17, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I guess you didn’t literally say that the Twins have the 8th best bench in baseball. But I still think that it’s a logical fallacy to say that the Twins have a “good enough” bench just because the team as a whole is doing well. Using the same kind of logic, Gomez is a “good enough” CF.

by PhoenixV on Aug 17, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're telling me that the numbers lie?

If the subs have a lower OPS than the regulars, then the bench is not performing up to the level of the players they replace. If the subs have a higher OPS, then they are performing above. There’s no debtate about that. It’s proven statistically.

Given that it’s mathematically possible to make only so many offensive moves with a roster configured as most are in the AL, it’s not possible to have anything but “a small sample size,” or more correctly, a smaller sample size, compared to the starters. Unless, of course, you pull your starters after a few innings, which would then beg the question: Why did you start them?

Given all those parameters, substitutes in a 162-game season will represent a small sample size. But being that you can’t carry the season over into another season, small sample size becomes THE sample size. There is no other sample size. And through three-quarters of the season now, the bench has outproduced the regulars. Thus, the bench is performing just fine, despite the fact you think they are “sucktastic.”

I guess you like to use numbers when it suits you, and ignore them when they don’t.

And you like to skew them. Why you would present the minor league numbers of Randy Ruiz, for instance, to show us what he MIGHT do in the big leagues, in that what he did at age 27 in AA doesn’t come close to suggesting what he will do against big-league pitchers at essentially age 31.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 17, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, no, no

You’re completely misunderstanding me and you’re completely misunderstanding what “statistics” mean (this is not a knock on you – there’s generally a lot of confusion about the latter).

You can’t “prove” anything statistically by just computing two different OPS’es. To say anything in statistics, you need to do careful tests where you use such esoteric notions as maximum likelihood estimators and p-values. You need to understand that every number in baseball (and, indeed, in physics) has an uncertainty connected to it. The Law of Large Numbers tells us that this uncertainty will diminish as the sample size increases.

Pinch hitting numbers aren’t “THE sample size”. All our current bench players have gotten a significant number of PA’s either this year or the last couple of years when starting, so it’s much wiser to look at those stats if we really wan’t to deduce anything.

I challenge you to prove this accusation: “I guess you like to use numbers when it suits you, and ignore them when they don’t.” I always try to judge everything objectively by looking at relevant stats and adjusting for things like sample size and context. Of course, I often overlook things – but never on purpose.

And, finally, I did not present the minor league numbers for Randy Ruiz for his minor league career. I presented his minor league translations for this year. I admit that the translations are another mathematical trick, and you can disregard them if you like.

It is entirely possible that Ruiz could prove to be nothing more than a singles hitter at the major league level. However, judging from his minor league track record, it just doesn’t seem likely, and 14 major league at bats won’t tell us anything about his abilities.

by PhoenixV on Aug 17, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent job

Way to go with the reverse jinx on Ruiz!

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 17, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d have to think Everett is the odd man out with Casilla coming back, Tolbert already working on his rehab assignment and Alejandro Machado available if need be at AAA along with Trevor Plouffe and Matt Macri. The Twins can far more easily replace Everett’s glove than Ruiz’s bat.

Corey Ettinger writes for Infieldirt.com, a site that is primarily Twins related, but which has frequent notes, stories, and thoughts from other teams around baseball, with a focus on the AL Central. If you live in the Fargo area, you can listen to Corey on the Derek Hanson show every Tuesday at 3:30 on AM1660.

by Corey Ettinger on Aug 17, 2008 1:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's a good question.

I have to believe it’ll be Ruiz, just knowing this organization’s penchant for loving its veterans. Plus, Everett’s actually not been that bad recently. Ruiz has some pop potential and I like him on the bench, but the difference between him and Everett is that Everett can start everyday while Ruiz is a roster filler. For the two weeks until September, I think Gardenhire would rather have bench versatility for his infield than a guy he can run out against LHP.

Ruiz could come back in September too, but if the Twins are only looking for someone to hit LHP they’ll likely just call up Bobby Kielty.

by Jesse on Aug 17, 2008 7:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Casilla will be back...

…on Thursday at the earliest, and these rehab trips often stretch out a couple days. Assuming he is back on Thursday, they play eleven games between Thursday and Sept 1st when the rosters can expand. Rochester isn’t going to be in the playoffs, thus, look for them to bring up anyone who they need on the 1st. Therefore it isn’t likely they are going to lose anyone who could be critical (Everett or Harris) to have Ruiz with the team for an extra 11 games. Also, look for them to bring Ruiz back on the 1st along with Bobby Korecky to have an extra arm in the bullpen…with the other callups coming when the Rochester season is over.

by roger13 on Aug 17, 2008 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who has options?

That would be Ruiz. He’s the only guy on the bench with options anyway. They’ll have to get by for a while without a RH power bat. But as Roger said, it’s only 11 days.

My question is, what do they do with Tolbert when he is ready? I presume they want to call him up for the playoff roster, meaning August 30. And I know they will only want 11 pitchers on the playoff roster. So either Boof or Bass will get passed through waivers on the last day of the month. My guess is Bass, because Boof is more likely to get snatched up. THe Mariners said they would have “jumped at” a Boof for Washburn swap.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 17, 2008 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not Harris

I’d really hate it if it was Harris. He has some defensive issues, but is the one middle-infield bat with a little pop in his swing and he’s been excellent at the plate during his hot-streaks.

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room.

by PJS on Aug 17, 2008 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tolbert

I don’t know why anyone is worried about Tolbert. He is best suited as a versatile bench player, if on the major league roster at all. His glove is not great, just decent, and his offense is below average. A career .280/.345/.405 hitter in the minors while being a little old for every level is nothing special. He hit .265/.307/.337 before his injury, which is not impressive at all. Sure, if the Twins have a spot for him, like they did at the beginning of the season, then I have no problem with him playing, but there’s no reason to get rid of a player like Harris or Everett for him. If Tolbert is ready before Sep 1st, then he can be optioned to the minors and called back up once rosters expand.

by Hoya on Aug 17, 2008 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tolbert

I think you have to take into account Tolbert’s development. He struggled to adjust to the wood bat. But since he did, he’s been a very good hitter. Last year he hit .293/.353/.427 in the International League. That’s pretty good for a middle infielder.

As to his defense, I would be interested to know where you get your information. I don’t have a lot of data on his minor league defensive numbers. But from what I saw when he was playing up here, he’s a very good defender. I would say he has the range of Punto and the hands of Harris, which is to say he’s better than either of them.

I wouldn’t have a problem with him not being on the playoff roster but being available in case of injury to one of the regular middle infielders. But next year, I see Tolbert as the regular utility guy replacing Punto.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 17, 2008 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re

He’s good enough to play in the majors as a utility player, but I don’t think he’s worth replacing Everett or Harris. I’d certainly hope he (or anyone for that matter) replaces Punto as the utility player next year.

As for his defense, other than my own opinion all I can offer are some stats, which admittedly are from a small sample size. Tolbert’s revized zone ratings is .733, .786, .810 at 3rd, short, and 2nd, respectively. Punto, on the other hand, has 3 year averages of .741, .862, and .776. I’m not sure we can really tell anything from those stats, since it doesn’t make much sense that Tolbert is equal at 3rd, much worse at short, and much better at 2nd. The sample is probably just too small.

by Hoya on Aug 17, 2008 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ruiz

I just don’t see how anyone but him could go down. Harris is a good right handed batter, so based just on hitting, its a maybe a wash. He also can play anywhere in the infield if needed, though he doesn’t play any of the positions very well. Everett is our best defensive shortsop right now, and his and punto’s numbers are starting to head toward eachother. Send him down for a couple of weeks, and bring him back in September.

by lookatthosetwins on Aug 18, 2008 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs