Twins-White Sox to the wire?

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 17, 2008 7:06 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

The Twins remain tied with the White Sox after sweeping the pitiful Seattle Mariners. The Mariners put up a fight, but it is tough for a bad team to beat a contending team in their park in late August or in September. The Twins and Sox have been in a flatfooted tie at the conclusion of play for the last three days. ESPN has the Twins as a very slight favorite to win the division 51.9% to the Sox 47.3%. I don't know how they figure those percentages, but I feel that the Sox have a slight edge in their remaining schedule. They have played 61 home games and 62 road games. The Twins have played 66 at home and only 57 on the road. That doesn't bode well for a team with a losing record on the road. I have a little system I use to break down wins. Wins at home against non-contenders are expected, wins on the road against non-contenders are less likely, as are wins at home against contenders. The least likely win is playing a contender on the road. For the next 17 games, the Twins will not be playing a series where they are more expected to win than the White Sox are. They play three at home against Oakland, while the Sox are entertaining the Mariners, then they go on the road for 14 games, including series against the Angels and the Blue Jays. If the Twins return from that road trip still in contact (< 3 games behind) with Chicago, I think their chances are very good. I think Chicago will win a lot of games in the next two plus weeks. This is their opportunity to "run away and hide" and if they don't, I expect it will be a dogfight until the end. Tomorrow, both the Twins and Sox draw the ace from a bad team. Duchscherer for the A's and King Felix for the M's. Fair enough, both teams dodged the other's aces in their current series.

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I think the schedule actually favors the Twins.

Twins opponent winng % for the rest of the season: .494. Chicago’s opponent winning percentage: .510.

Playoff contenders Twins will face: Angels, Rays, White Sox
Playoff contenders Sox will face: Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Angles, Twins

Chicago: 9 of final 12 games on the road, last 3 hare at home
Minnesota: 12 of final 22 games at home, last 6 are at home

I think you’re right, and it will be a dogfight to the end, and that the second-to-last series of the season will mean quite a bit for these two squads. But if it’s just the schedule we’re looking at, the Twins have the advantage.

by Jesse on Aug 17, 2008 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Records

Remaining opponents, since All-Star break:

Twins .482
White Sox .523

by Johnny Safron on Aug 18, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This year it seems what matters more is

where they are playing instead of who they are playing. The home / road records show that so with the Twins playing more games on the road I have some concern.

On top of playing on the road, they are also playing teams outside the division which has been another stumbling block this year.

There is a big possiblility that the road trip will be brutal on the Twins but if they can make it home tied or just 3 games out it would be HUGE!

Win Twins!

by caluofmn on Aug 17, 2008 9:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Twins Road Record

Yes the Twins have a losing record on the road. But they actually have a better record on the road than the White Sox. One team (Angels) has a winning record on the road in the AL and only 4 in the entire majors. So I dont understand some people making a big deal about the twins road woes. Nobody is really doing well on the road. Yes the team that does the best on the road over the final weeks will likely play in October. I’m not concerned about the Twins road play being a weakness. It’s a weakness for pretty much everyone. I’m more concerned about the bullpen.

by .mnqwerd on Aug 17, 2008 11:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The entirety of the bullpen

Turns into a punch of pumpkins on the road… check the splits. I looked a couple weeks ago and the bullpen was solid at home, though I’m sure that’s changed now.

Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?

by caseintheface on Aug 17, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is Right

The point is that the Twins have 24 road games remaining, more than any contender. So, say the Twins go 11-13 in their remaining road games, while continuing to win 2 of every three at home. Their record would be 91-71. Meanwhile, if the Sox go 9-10 in their remaining road games and win 13 of 20 remaining home games (which would be below their current season’s record), that would come to 92 wins and a ticket to the playoffs.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 17, 2008 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Road versus strength of schedule

I’m not entirely sure how ESPN figures out the percentages, but it appears that the weaker opponents must count more for the Twins than their home-away counts against. It’s really just an extra five games we play on the road while Chicago is at home. I’m guessing we lose 1 or 2 games to the Sox in those five. The question is, can we make up three games in the next 39 against much weaker competition? Also take into consideration that three of those games are in the Dome against Chicago. Baseline for that series SHOULD be winning 2 of 3. That leaves 2 games in 36. Dogfight!

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2008 7:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you're curious

ESPN pulls their playoff percentages from Cool Standings.com. The simple answer is they use a modified Pythagorean method and simulate the remainder of the season a million times. You can find the more complete answer here. It is a pretty cool site. They run playoff odds for MLB, NFL and NBA

by GACTwinFan on Aug 20, 2008 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs