Here We Go Again
Twins return to first place by half a game.
Sure, Thursday night's game was great and, really, is the kind of game I anticipate seeing between the Twins and Angels. But I'm sure as hell not about to bring up issues with a 9-0 rout. The Halos are one of the American League's (and baseball's) best teams, and with the Twins in a dead heat with the South Siders in the hunt for the pennant every win is big. These last two have meant just a little bit more, and because Minnesota is actually on the road while logging these wins, it's a great weekend for optimism.
Glen Perkins came up huge for the second time in three starts, and separate from the game it would be nice to see him get back on a streak where quality starts can again become the rule instead of the exception. Back to Friday night, for how well he's been hit this season it means a lot to see a guy step up and be the man his team needs him to be. Perkins was freezing hitters, getting their knees to buckle two or three times through the course of the game, and that's not something we're accustomed to seeing from him. His changeup was a virtual mirror of his fastball, but dropped an average of about nine inches lower than the fastball, ensuring some necessary deception. About 20 feet from the plate, the off-speed pitch could start to drop off the table:
Like one of our community members mentioned yesterday, I think it was Adam Peterson, having Perk as a number five starter isn't a bad thing. He may not be pitching quite as well as his 3.90 ERA suggests, but that hasn't stopped him from having a pretty good year. Most importantly last night, he managed to keep the dangerous Angels away from an inconsistent bullpen by logging eight solid innings.
His offensive support was extensive. Delmon Young had another one of his easy-swing home runs to center field, and Denard Span continues to be a major catalyst in making things happen all over the field. Every starter collected a hit except Alexi Casilla, and just like Thursday's game both teams were stingy with the free passes--the Twins didn't collect one.
The last time Span didn't reach base via a walk or a hit was August 1. In fact, in his last 15 games he's hitting .385/.452/.538. If the Twins win the division crown this summer, Denard's name will need to be added to a long list of contenders for the team's Most Valuable Player. He uses his speed on the bases (11/15 stolen bases) and in the field, and he's still improving in both areas. It's hard to imagine the Twins being this good without Span's significant contributions.
Young, by contrast, won't be garnering any MVP votes, but he's been a big part of the offense this month. Last night's bomb was his fourth in August alone, and so in spite of just hitting .250/.307/.456 on the month the power is starting to come around. No, he's not selective (he swings at 39% of balls outside the strike zone) and sometimes it feels like walks are kryptonite, but Young is starting to show signs that all the promise wasn't for nothing. His eight homers since June 7th put him just one behind Justin Morneau, good enough for third on the team in that span (Jason Kubel has 11). And, in spite of a slower August in terms of hits, Young's still hitting .310/.346/.467 since May 30. Considering what he can do versus what he can't do, that's not bad for a 22-year old.
And of course I can't ignore the fact that, once again, your Minnesota Twins are in first place in the AL Central. Forgive the bravado, but I think that's exactly where this team deserves to be. I do believe the 2008 Twins will be the division champions, and with the way they're playing right now that's a hard point to argue. Players have picked each other up when they've slumped, and for a team that back in March would have been considered fortunate to finish the season at 81-81 this year's campaign is proving to be one hell of a ride.
Three cheers for Tony_O, whose monster show on a Friday night proves that to the victors go the spoils:
| Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|
| Tony_O | 78 |
| 33MorneauMVP | 69 |
| Alexi Casilla All-Star | 42 |
| DedicatedFollowerOfFashion | 25 |
| caluofmn | 12 |
| .mnqwerd | 9 |
| Beerbear | 7 |
| Hoya | 7 |
| Adam Peterson | 6 |
| natetheskate | 2 |
| ianmader | 1 |
| Neil | 1 |
| MagikLair | 1 |
| Johnny Safron | 1 |
Stars of the Game
#3 Delmon Young (2-for-4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R, 2 2-out RBI)
#2 Denard Span (3-for-5, HR, 4 RBI, R, OF assist DP, 3 2-out RBI)
#1 Glen Perkins (8 IP, 5 H, 3 K, 2 BB, 0 R)
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Comments
Perkins at #5 is not a bad thing...
Great outing last night. Until he had to throw a few more pitches in the 8th, I thought he had a chance at the CG SO. For Perk, the key is pitching strikes and pitching inside to keep guys off balance. Some interesting numbers from FanGraphs
Perkins: 4.58 FIP, .302 BABIP
Bonser: 4.05 FIP, .348 BABIP
I’m certainly not suggesting that Boof should be in the rotation instead of Perkins, but the above numbers indicate a degree of good and bad luck on Perk and Boof’s part, respectively.
In years past, a pitcher like Perkins may have been our #2 or #3…good to see the depth.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 23, 2008 9:47 AM EDT 0 recs
I looked at Perk's FIP this morning,
and was surprised that it actually went UP after last night’s performance. I know his defense gave him a little help, but enough to actually make his FIP worse by 0.13? That was interesting to me.
by Jesse on
Aug 23, 2008 10:05 AM EDT
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Interesting...
Defensive performance last night wouldn’t help him from a FIP standpoint. Only BB/HBP/IBB, HR and Ks are considered. The formula I use is from Hardball Times
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
I’m not sure how 2BB and 3K could possibly have increased his FIP using that formula.
Last night, the formula (w/o factor) gives (0+(2BB)*3-3K*2)/IP = 0.0
Season to date before last night: (16HR*13+(29BB+0IBB+2HBP)*3-57K*2)/116.67IP = 1.60
Where did you see the FIP go up?
by Adam Peterson on
Aug 23, 2008 10:36 AM EDT
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When I do
pregame, I look at fangraphs, MLB.com, hardballtimes, different sites to get a read on the starting pitchers. Fangraphs last night listed Perk’s FIP to be 4.45—I listed it with Perkins’ stats last night in the game thread.
by Jesse on
Aug 23, 2008 10:50 AM EDT
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The only thing I can think of
other than a miscalculation on Fangraphs, would be that the 4.45 number was actually xFIP, or the league-specific factor changed…
by Adam Peterson on
Aug 23, 2008 11:03 AM EDT
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xFIP?
As Adam mentioned below, his raw FIP value should’ve held constant. However, while that would result in no FIP change, it would cause an increase in his raw xFIP – xFIP uses flyballs instead of homeruns, with the assumption that every fly has the same chance of resulting in a homerun (in an attempt to account for park sizes), so unless Perkins gave up no fly outs, his raw xFIP number would’ve gone up.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on
Aug 23, 2008 12:38 PM EDT
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FIP
The calculations I posted were misleading, without the ~3.2 league factor. For yesterday’s game, Perkins came out at 0.0 before, or about 3.2 after the factor. That should have made his FIP go down.
FanGraphs shows that Perkins had 12 FB, 9 GB and 4 LD. His xFIP may have gone up due to the large proportion of FB. Basically, xFIP assumes that giving up that many FB with relatively few Ks will result on more HR…
by Adam Peterson on
Aug 23, 2008 2:19 PM EDT
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That has to be it then,
in spite of the fact that fangraphs doesn’t list the stat as xFIP.
by Jesse on
Aug 23, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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Delmon Young
You note Delmon’’s 8 HR since June 7th. It’s interesting that on June 7th, we were 31-31. Since that time, the team is 43-23. Not solely due to Delmon, but he has played a bigger part in the resurgence than I thought, no matter how frustrated he makes me…
Also note that 8 HR in 66 team games is a season pace for roughly 20 HR. I’m not sure which is the “real” Delmon Young, but a .310/.346/.467 line from Delmon, as he’s done since May 30th, would have been above and beyond my expectations for this season.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 23, 2008 10:44 AM EDT 0 recs
I Would like to thank The Academy
For the Most Posts Award for August 22nd, i would also like to Thank Morneau33MVP, Beacause without him having to leave because had to work in the morning, None of this would be possible.
by Tony_O on Aug 23, 2008 11:16 AM EDT 0 recs
Clear a spot on the mantle,
you’ve got some hardware!
by Jesse on
Aug 23, 2008 11:31 AM EDT
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no problem Tony_O
I figured it was about time for somebody else to take home the trophy.
and congrats on lightning up…you did a really good job! :) I know it can be very angry but we must have faith and like last night, it pays off!!!
by 33MorneauMVP on
Aug 23, 2008 11:50 AM EDT
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