Nathan in the 8th

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 6, 2008 3:14 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

So Gardy finally brought Nathan in the the 8th tonight, and while it didn't work out this time LEN III leaves us with the happy information that Gardy is sticking with the idea.

Just wanted to make sure everyone saw this. We've all been talking about this for awhile and all, and it's nice to see it happening. We need it. LEN III makes a good point that havng started it earlier in the year might have tired Joe out too.

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What we need...

...is for Guerrier not to pitch in any tight game again. He has gotten worse and worse and worse in each outing since the break.

There are two pitchers I trust: Crain and Nathan.

by Twins Territory on Aug 6, 2008 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would even Trust Breslow to a Point, you gotta give him a pass one the pass two days because how do you expect a guy to preform when he hasnt pitched in almost two weeks before.

by Tony_O on Aug 6, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes is better than Breslow

At doing anything you would want Breslow to do.

by ubelmann on Aug 7, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What makes you say that?

Reyes is a lefty specialist. Because of this, he gets the majority of his appearances against his “strength”. Breslow probably sees a disproportionate number of lefties, but not like Reyes.

courtesy of thebaseballcube
Name: WHIP / HR per 9 / ERA
Reyes: 1.58 / .79 / 4.36
Breslow: 1.42 / .34 / 2.55

Now, I recognize that these are career stats, and Reyes has 12 seasons or something. So there may be ways to cut the numbers differently that show the opposite. Still, this matches my impression. Further, lets use the last two years:

Name: G / IP / IPperG / K / K9 / HR9 / HR9
Reyes: 96 / 56.2 / .59 / 37 / .65 / 3 / .48
Breslow: 36 / 36.2 / 1 / 34 / .93 / 1 / .25

I think Reyes is seriously over-rated. His ERA always looks good because he only pitches to two people at a time. That means he lets inherited runners score, but his guys rarely do.

Reyes compared to breslow: he gives up more baserunners, strikes fewer our, gives up more homeruns, and does this while getting fewer outs. How is he helping his team? You can say that his appearances are Gardy’s decision, but can you imagine putting him in more frequently, and against more righties. He throws meatballs.

by snolls on Aug 7, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well. No and yes. And no. And maybe,

Reyes is a lefty specialist. Because of this, he gets the majority of his appearances against his "strength". Breslow probably sees a disproportionate number of lefties, but not like Reyes.

Probably?

Well hell, all these numbers are available. Why not just look ‘em up?

Reyes has faced102 batters this summer. 62 were lefties, whom he has held to a .210 BA and a .258 OBP.

Breslow has faced 108. 44 were lefties, whom he has held to a .238 BA and .273 OBP.

I am sure someone will call “small sample size” on all this, particularly on the fact Reyes has faced only 18 more lefties than Breslow.

But it would be very easy to turn your position on its head and say Reyes faces more lefties, and rightly so, because he can get them out better than Breslow.

At 4 years older, it is easy to see by watching them that Reyes is currently the better pitcher. Which is not an indictment of Breslow as a player in this role.

As for seriously overrated, Reyes is hired to get out lefties, and people who can earn a nice living. I’m not too sure anyone would rate a pitcher like that very highly outside his own subset, however. There are plenty of lefty starters who, if given the chance to play this role, would excel as well.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 7, 2008 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that comparing their career stats

is especially useful considering the differing duration of the two careers and that Reyes has been used in multiple roles.

Breslow has major control problems. His walk rates since 2005 are borderline outrageous. Reyes has at least held his walk rate to 3.00 BB/G or lower in 2006 and 2008, the last two seasons he’s been healthy. The difference is not huge, but Reyes is better than Breslow.

You also left out that Reyes gets a lot of ground balls when he’s going well, which is something that Breslow doesn’t do. Of course, as long as we keep running out the worst defensive shortstop in baseball and one of the worst defensive third basemen in baseball, we minimize that strength.

by ubelmann on Aug 8, 2008 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

I respect that Breslow is no star, but I still don’t get the love for Reyes. If his numbers are that good against lefties, what it tells me is that he should NEVER be allowed to face righties. His overall line is bad, while his line against lefties (60%) is good. Why does he even get an opportunity against righties.

Then, if you are only going to put him in against one or two hitters at a time, is he even worth having on the team? Bullpen spots are valuable, and I think the most important difference between Reyes and Breslow is that Breslow strikes out 1 per inning, while pitching an inning per appearance. Reyes is a waste.

Also, I agree that the career stats aren’t ideal. That is why I presented the 2 yr stats. I watch these guys pitch too, and, to me, it isn’t “easy to see by watching them that Reyes is currently the better pitcher”. I’d argue the stats back me up on this.

by snolls on Aug 8, 2008 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See I don't trust Crain at all either

Basically Nathan’s the only solid option at this point. Imagine if they’d traded him along with Santana, admittedly what I and others here wanted to happen…

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Aug 6, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just..

..trust Crain more than anybody else because he has that 96 MPH fastball and it makes me feel good.

by Twins Territory on Aug 6, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trust

We don’t have the bullpens from previous years where we have a bunch of guys we think we can REALLY trust. We have no choice but to go with some inferior choices sometimes and hope it works out. I still think Guerrier is pretty good.

Having one of the guys from AAA come up and put up a 3.5-4 ERA would be huge though.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 6, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Guerrier is good

He’s also been unjustly overworked this year. i wouldn’t be surprised if his arm is gassed.

by Neil on Aug 6, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guerrier has not been overworked in the least

He’s also been unjustly overworked this year. i wouldn’t be surprised if his arm is gassed.

Well, let’s go to the reality check of objectivity to refute that highly subjective statement. (Unjustly? C’mon. Even if he were overworked, which he is not, how would it be “unjust”?)

He pitched 73 of 162 games last year, and 88 innings. That’s 1.205 innings per game, and an appearance every 2.21 games.

Through 114 games this year, he has been in 55 games and 59 1/3 innings. I think you can see where this is going, being he’s averaging barely over one inning an outing. 1.078 to be exact. He’s become an one-inning guy. He’s made an appearance every 2.07 games.

So he appears marginally more often, and is asked to get fewer outs per appearance.

The only thing unjust here is stating that he has been overworked, unjustly or not.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 7, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guerrier

Maybe over the full-season, Guerrier’s usage appears reasonable, but he’s had a couple stretches of extremely heavy usage, which (while I haven’t ever seen a study supporting/opposing this) I would assume increases the risk of injury/poor performance.

For example, from July 26-August 5, Guerrier pitched in 8 of 11 games. An appearance every 2 games or so might be fine, but stretches like this are overusage.

by Diggity Dino on Aug 8, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We don't even realize how solid

Neshek was the last two years. Bring him in in the 7th or 8th and we usually got to Nathan unscathed.

There has been no answer for his absence in the Twins organization.

by Old Twins Cap on Aug 6, 2008 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I expect...

...that if Nathan blows another one of these two-inning saves in his next few outings, we’ll see the experiment come to an end.

That would also give some support to the idea that the save statistic, and the role of closers in general in baseball currently, are seriously overrated.

by dwintheiser on Aug 6, 2008 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't that actually support the argument?

by Johnny Safron on Aug 7, 2008 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For those of you who haven't seen it yet

In reference to dwintheiser’s comment that closers are overrated (which I completely agree with), Jim Caple had an excellent article on that subject yesterday on ESPN.com. Jonah Keri had a similar article on why the “K-Rod for MVP” bandwagon is seriously misguided – his high number of saves is entirely due to his high number of opportunities, and he’s not converting them at a much higher rate than an average closer.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 6, 2008 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs